Keir Starmer’s recent call for closer alignment with the EU was welcome. Naturally, he felt he had to add the qualification ‘if it’s in our national interest.’ He couldn’t bring himself to say that such an alignment might be ‘in the interests of the UK and Europe as a whole.’ Like John Major declaring ‘Game, Set and Match’ after securing an opt-out from the Maastricht Treaty, it still suggested an ‘us and them’ approach. But at least it was an acknowledgement that closer ties with Europe could be good for Britain, something that might seem obvious after a decade of post-Brexit economic decline.
The government’s recent decision to re-enter the Erasmus+ programme, discussed in LibDem Voice, was also welcome. But there’s still an ‘us and them’ approach even to the question of youth exchanges. It’s not difficult to detect an undertow of concern along the lines of: Won’t it lead to a flood of young good-for-nothings crossing the Channel and adding to our ‘immigration problem’?
If that seems unfair, consider this article from Politico published last October and discussing last May’s EU ‘reset’ summit and the question of joining the Youth Mobility Scheme. As Politico reported, the Chair of the Migration Advisory Committee, Professor Brian Bell, a professor of economics at King’s College London, declared that it was ‘utterly implausible’ that the government would sign up to a new youth mobility programme. He insisted that ‘many more Europeans would likely come to the U.K. under an uncapped scheme than Brits who would go abroad.’
In the manner of economics professors, he then went for statistics. ‘There are six or seven times as many Europeans as there are Brits. So if the probability of wanting to move is the same for Brits as it is for Europeans, you’d have seven times as many Europeans coming here as leaving in that world. Suppose 50,000 Brits wanted to go every year. The equivalent will be 350,000 Europeans arriving.’
There we are. According to the Chair of the Migration Advisory Committee, which certainly has considerable influence on ministers, net migration ‘could be 300,000 up in the first three years of the scheme, when you’re getting the new cohorts arriving, and you’d have a 900,000 additional people in the UK, once you got steady state, and that would be a big effect on net migration.’ ‘New cohorts’ – it sounds like Caesar’s armies crossing the channel two millennia ago. Suddenly the chance to share experiences with different parts of Europe has become a threatened invasion.
These figures, as the article makes clear, are highly questionable. For one thing, there are currently more European citizens leaving the U.K. than arriving — 95,000 a year in net emigration, according to the government’s own statistics. Doubtless part of the reason is that they’re fed up with being seen as invading cohorts. For another, such movements are never simply a matter of the size of the populations on each side of the Channel. Between 2014 and 2020, Erasmus took around 113,000 British students, while the U.K. hosted 190,000 EU students through the programme. That’s a ratio of less than 2 to 1, not 7 to 1. In any case, a Youth Mobility Scheme could be drawn up which will agree a cap on numbers.