This week’s (26th April) BBC Debate Night (Scotland’s version of Question Time) discussed the question “Will the SNP survive the crisis they are in at the moment?”. With the panel made up of Labour, SNP, and Conservative MSPs, SNP supporter Aamer Anwar, and former Labour Special Adviser, Ayesha Hazarika, it lacked a liberal position on the issue. A position I hope I can articulate here.
So in my opinion, will they survive? Yes.
As a follow up question, should they survive? Yes.
This is a crisis for the SNP, undoubtedly, but it risks becoming a crisis for Scottish democracy in the medium-long term. The SNP have made a name for themselves in claiming to stand up for democracy, and for change in Scotland. A party which can take the moral high-ground over the Westminster establishment.
What happens now that they have been subject to two high profile arrests, infighting over party finances, a fridge-freezer, and a motorhome?
Polls so far have shown that SNP support is declining, but support for Labour, Greens, and Lib Dems has not risen enough to compensate. Furthermore, the latest YouGov poll, 16% of 2019 SNP voters said they don’t know who they would vote for in the next UK election. For Panelbase and Redfield & Wilton the figure was 10%, Survation 9%, and Savanta 7%.
This is especially significant when you consider that support for independence has remained stable in the aftermath of the resignation and leadership election. While the number of undecideds has also gone up, but this has always been volatile on the Indyref question.