Soon after I was elected in July 2024, I was approached by a man in Cirencester Market Place who congratulated me on my win. He’d voted in every general election since 1974, he said, and this was the first time he had ever voted for a winning candidate. For most of that time, he told me, he had barely bothered looking at the names on the ballot paper. He already knew who would win, but had voted out of habit – “or maybe just stubbornness” – but knew that it would, in effect, be a wasted vote.
South Cotswolds is a new constituency, created at the 2024 boundary changes, and covers areas that had consistently returned Conservative MPs for a hundred years or more. 2024 was the first election many residents could remember in which the outcome was genuinely uncertain. The response was striking. Engagement was different. Conversations on doorsteps were different. People who had stopped paying attention started paying attention again, and we had the 6th highest voter turnout in the country.
That should not be remarkable. The fact that it is tells you most of what you need to know about what first-past-the-post does to democracy between elections – not just on the night the results come in, but across decades of people quietly concluding that their participation is pointless.
I spoke in Westminster Hall this week in a debate on first-past-the-post. This is not the first time I’ve raised electoral reform in Parliament, and I want to use this piece to explain why I keep coming back to it – and why I believe the stakes are now higher than ever.
The numbers are worse than we think
We know the headline: Labour won 63% of the seats on 33% of the votes in 2024, giving them 100% of the power. The Gallagher Index – the standard academic measure of proportionality – gave that election a score of 23.67, making it the least proportional general election in modern British history, and the fifth least proportional result anywhere in the world.
But the detail is more striking than the headline. According to Make Votes Matter, it took on average 23,500 votes to elect a Labour MP in 2024, and over 820,000 to elect a Reform MP (silver linings). That is a 35-fold difference in the value of a vote, depending solely on which party you supported. The Green Party, Reform UK and the SNP between them received more than 6.7 million votes – over 23% of the total – and shared just 2.7% of seats.
Make Votes Matter also points out that for roughly 90% of the time since 1935, Britain has had single-party “majority” governments, and not one of them had the support of a majority of voters. Some may claim this is strong government, but it is minority rule, dressed up in emperor’s new clothes, and we need to call it out.