Author Archives: Samuel Jackson

In 2028, the Democrats must not repeat their ‘Tim problem’

Despite it being more than two years away, there is a great deal of interest in the 2028 US presidential election. As such, there is fierce speculation about who the Democrats’ candidate will be. While it is a fool’s errand to definitively say who that will be – given the candidacies of past ‘shoo-ins’ such as Edmund Muskie or Gary Hart – it may be worth considering who their running mate could or should be.

The role of Vice President is not insignificant. Fifteen out of forty-five Presidents previously served as VP, with eight directly succeeding following deaths in office and one following resignation. As elected representatives, they cannot be fired or dismissed like appointed Cabinet secretaries. And as President of the Senate, they can cast deciding votes to resolve ties over budgetary bills.

During elections, running mates are meant to serve as campaign assets, balancing out a ticket geographically, ideologically and personally to gain wider appeal. As this position is not determined through primaries, it is up to successful nominees under advisement to consider and select the best possible running mate.

Democratic anxieties about 2028 stem from recent memories of 2016 and 2024. In 2016, US Senator for Virginia Tim Kaine served as Hilary Clinton’s running mate, and in 2024 Governor of Minnesota Tim Walz served as Kamala Harris’s. The losses of these tickets to Donald Trump – while baffling – may be attributable to several factors, the choice of running mate should not be dismissed.

Geographically, neither Tim gave their respective tickets an advantage as they both came from reliably Democratic states on the peripheries of key US regions they were meant to represent (the South and the Rust Belt). As the Electoral College means that elections hinge on outcomes in a handful of swing states, there was no benefit having both halves of the ticket come from safe states.

Demographically, both Tims were meant to be ‘inoffensive’, balancing out tickets headed by women, seeking the highest office in a country where many voters are sceptical about the idea of a female President. While there was speculation that Clinton could nominate Elizabeth Warren, Harris voiced in her memoir 107 Days that her preferred choice of Pete Buttigieg was too risky, the combination of a black woman and a gay man potentially alienating voters. This has led to the belief that the next Democratic nominee needs to be a straight, white man.

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Penny for your thoughts?: Why we should have a singular Pound Sterling

Our esteemed Treasury Spokesperson Daisy Cooper recently announced plans to replace the Treasury with a Department of Growth tasked with promoting economic growth and ending the cost-of-living crisis and a Department of Expenditure. The very first event of Spring 2026 Conference in York is the Consultative Session for the Thriving Economy Policy Working Group, doubtless where many members plan to contribute other inspired and radical proposals to boost our economy.

I write to make one such proposal: the establishment of a Bank of the United Kingdom with a complete monopoly on banknote issuance, principally by rescinding the issuing power of the six authorised banks.

Some of you, dear readers, may question the point of this proposal in light of digital payments. With 61% of Britons making cash payments at least once a week, there is still a place for physical payments in our society, especially for use by vulnerable people and in the eventuality of digital system failures.

How banknotes are issued in the UK makes little to no sense. Bank of England notes are not accepted in Scotland or Northern Ireland, and Scottish and Northern Irish notes are generally not accepted in England or Wales by virtue of being promissory notes. Bank of England notes are the only ones that may be traded internationally, included via bureaux de change. This system of barriers helps contribute to the weighting of our economy towards London.

In response to the Great Recession, the 2009 Banking Act required the authorised banks to hold in reserve the same value of Bank of England notes or gold as banknotes they have in circulation, amounting to over a billion. In effect, while a Bank of England £5 note cannot be used in Scotland or Northern Ireland, an authorised bank would need to possess one to ensure the value of every one of its own £5 notes. This leads us to the oddities of £1,000,000 (‘Giant’) and £100,000,000 (‘Titan’) notes which cannot be spent as even readers of Mark Twain may attest.

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What history might teach us about the 2028 US Election

In America, it is conventional political wisdom that the campaign for their next presidential election begins the day after the last one. A recent opinion poll suggests that half of Americans are already considering the far-off 2028 race, although this may be testament to the unpopularity, corruption and chaos of Trump and his second administration.

The 2025 off-year elections in the US were the first opportunity for voters to rebuke Trump with many local and down-ballot elections receiving greater attention and the Democrats making a clean sweep wherever they were held. With a blue wave is anticipated at the 2026 midterms, Republicans have either undertaken gerrymanders or announced their intention not to run again.

From a British and Liberal Democratic perspective, we have welcomed Democratic wins as signs that Americans still support democracy. As the result of the 2028 election will affect UK-US relations – hopefully for the better – and may influence the subsequent UK general election due by 2029, it may be worth looking back at past elections to see how it may play out.

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The World Cup and the Olympics should not be showcases for Trumpism or America First

In January of this year alone, Donald Trump has undermined the international rule of law and the postwar global order, all in the name of ‘Making America Great Again’. He ordered the capture of President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela to combat America’s drug problem and potentially to access Venezuelan oil and raised the prospect of an intra-NATO war to obtain Greenland.

While I and others are grateful that UK and European leaders have been able to stand up to Trump and get him to back down over Greenland, the wider international community needs to be more assertive. This year, the United States will host the FIFA Men’s World Cup in tandem with Canada and Mexico, while in 2028 Los Angeles is scheduled to host the Olympics for a third time. In light of the Trump administration’s actions, there is a case that the US should not host either event and that they should be relocated. While it would only make sense for the World Cup fixtures to be hosted by another CONCACAF member, we should not argue that Britain is the only possible alternative for the Olympics.

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A cross-party group of MPs including Liberal Democrats has proposed that the US be expelled from FIFA over American actions in Venezuela. While perfectly understandable, I fear that this course of action may unduly punish a future America that has managed to shake off Trump and Trumpism. Relocating sporting fixtures to be held in his America would be the more direct and proportionate response. With both England and Scotland taking part in the World Cup, I am inclined to ask who would support both teams boycotting the tournament?

Recent American immigration policy has shown no regard for the wellbeing of American citizens, let alone foreign nationals. Trump has pushed for the revocation of birthright citizenship – a right enshrined in the Fourteenth Amendment as part of the abolition of slavery – and aggressive immigration enforcement has led to the deportation and bodily harm of Americans and the death of the blameless Renee Nicole Good.

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Addressing the cost-of-dying crisis

Our party is dedicated to resolving the cost-of-living crisis, where inflated prices and insecure or short supply are affecting our ability to afford life’s necessities. However, there is a part of life being negatively impacted by inflation that goes undiscussed: death.

Death is never an easy subject to talk about, nor is it one that many of us want us to seriously contemplate. We will have experienced bereavement at some point in our lives, with many of us having organised the final farewells of family members and loved ones. However, ignoring such issues ignores the problems that inflation is causing during such fraught times.

Between 2004 and 2025, inflation rose by 75% overall, but the cost of funerals increased by 134%. Today, the cost of dying averages £9,797 – covering funerals and associated professional fees and send-off costs – while simple funerals cost £4,285 and direct cremations cost £1,597. These cost the same regardless of household income, meaning that those at the lower end of the scale must spend a greater proportion of annual income than those at the higher end.

Such financial difficulties are compounding the emotional toll of bereavement. While support can be provided in the form of the Funeral Expenses Payment, this only amounts to a maximum of £1,000, with all excess costs being paid out of pocket. Under such conditions, purchasers do not exercise the same consideration for funerals as they would with any other service, often relying on the first funeral provider they encounter, guided by expectations of what funerals should entail and consensus among family members rather than intended wishes or preferences.

Such considerations have led to significant changes in British funereal practices. With cost being a major factor, cremations constitute nearly 80% of final dispositions in the UK annually and public health funerals – services provided by local authorities – have increased. However, these changes entail problems of their own. Depending on where you live, local authorities can deny attendance by family members and loved ones, the inclusion of burial markers or the return of ashes at their discretion when providing public health funerals because of costs which they must bear.

Communities such as Jews and Muslims face disproportionate funeral costs because of their faiths. As Judaism and Islam prescribe burial and prohibit cremation, adherents must pay the higher costs incurred by the former practice.

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The Liberal Democrats need policies for the North of England

In our internal federal elections for 2026, Josh Babarinde and Victoria Collins were elected as our President and Vice President respectively. I wish Mr Babarinde and Ms Collins the best of luck ahead of their tenures as their successes are our party’s successes.

In light of their victories, there is an issue facing our party which we need to address. Kamran Hussain, Ms Collins’ challenger for VP, stood as a candidate who would give the North of England a greater voice within the federal party. That is why I and members of my local and regional parties, among others in the North, supported Mr Hussain’s VP candidacy, and why I supported the Federal Policy Committee candidacies of Abrial Jerram and Andrew Haldane.

At present, our party is dominated by the South of England. Of our 72 MPs, nearly 82% represent Southern seats, with most senior party positions being held by MPs from this region. By contrast, the North of England has only four Lib Dem MPs, with the Northeast having none. While Lisa Smart, Tim Farron and Tom Morrison hold posts in the frontbench team, this continuing imbalance may portray us as a party of and for the South and put us bad stead electorally.

The North of England feels left behind in comparison to the rest of the United Kingdom. Yorkshire and Humberside and the Northeast are in the lowest third of English regions by GDP, with the former having a smaller GDP than the Southwest of England or Scotland despite all three having comparable populations (around 5,000,000 each). The North has rates of unemployment higher than the UK average and worse rates of poverty, deprivation, growth and investment than the South.

The North formed part of Labour’s Red Wall, but recent elections have demonstrated that Northern fealty to Labour is no longer a given. In 2019, the Red Wall collapsed to the Conservatives partly in rejection of Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership, with many seats in the region reverting to Labour in 2024 owing to vote-splitting by Reform UK. This year’s local elections were a clear rejection of the two-party status quo. While our party’s gains were concentrated in the South due to the continuation of our Blue Wall strategy, Reform’s were principally in the Midlands and North, with those in the latter including the councils of Lancashire, Doncaster and County Durham.

Reform’s performance in local government since May have been mixed. They have lost 38 councillors through resignation, defection, suspension or expulsion. Quarrels within Reform’s ranks have broken out. Spending has either been wasted through payouts for contract violations or cuts to vital maintenance works. Cases of ‘good’ Reform governance, such as Kent County Council’s call for more social care visas or Hull & East Yorkshire Mayor Luke Campbell’s support for his county’s renewables industry, saw breaks with party principles and emulation of the ‘establishment’ that they were meant to rail against.

Reform UK are not winning because of their policies but because of anger against the two major parties and their recent poor records in government. While we are picking up seats through by-elections following short-lived Reform stints in local government, we cannot rest on our laurels and assume that a lack of a plan will doom them by the time of the next general election.

Our policies of lowering prices, improving public services and investing in infrastructure theoretically have appeal in the North. However, we are not cutting through to voters, at least nationally. We must acknowledge that our policies do not address the specific needs of specific regions or communities, and we must recognise that Northern concerns are not purely economic in nature.

Viewed as a party of the South, we may by extension be viewed as a party of and for the middle class. Of the Northern seats we have won, they are usually centred on more affluent towns reminiscent of the Blue Wall, namely Harrogate & Knaresborough located within Yorkshire’s Golden Triangle. Having first seen the decline of heavy manufacturing which provided plentiful, proud work for unskilled and semiskilled workers, the boarding-up of high street and town centre businesses clearly marks another decline where fewer jobs are available. The university-level education now required in the modern job market is unaffordable or inaccessible to many and may be perceived as having little immediate benefit to afflicted communities. Within such environments, populist, anti-establishment parties calling for a return to ‘better times’ would have greater appeal.

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Thoughts on our new Transport commitments

At Autumn Conference, our party endorsed two policy motions tied to transport. F22: Connecting Communities – Building a Transport Network for the 21st Century built upon our party’s commitment to making rail a genuinely affordable, accessible and environmentally-friendly mode of transport, while F30: This Land is Your Land – Restoring Public Paths Through Nature sought to restore our nation’s nature and improve the public’s access to it.

Both policy motions featured the proposal that 5,000 miles of railway lines left disused since 1965 following the Beeching Cuts be redeveloped as footpaths, cycle paths or bridleways. I had hoped to speak at Conference during the debate on F30 to express my reservations about this proposal specifically. In truth, I had unsuccessfully attempted to submit amendments – one for each motion – addressing this issue. However, due to time constraints, I was not called to the rostrum. In lieu of such a speech, I would like to share with you my thoughts on this proposal in this article.

Before I do, I should say that I voted for both policy motions, including for the amendments that were successfully adopted. I believe in their proposals as well as improving and safeguarding women’s personal safety during travel, expanding Network Railcard applicability outside of London and the Southeast, and providing facilities for rest along pathways in the form of benches. I am an ardent supporter of expanded rail access and restoring nature. I am not someone to throw the baby out with the bathwater. My main fears are about potential friction between our policy commitments.

Our party is committed to expanding rail capacity including ‘implement(ing) light rail schemes for trams and tram–trains’. Our modern light rail systems are different from the tram systems that provided public transport before being supplanted by buses during the mid-twentieth century. With historic tram networks – barring Blackpool’s – having been torn out, modern systems such as Greater Manchester’s Metrolink and South Yorkshire’s Supertram utilise existing, previously disused railway infrastructure. This allows for separated routes that minimise conflict with road traffic (where thoroughfares have not been pedestrianised to accommodate trams), for integration between light rail and railways, and systems that serve communities beyond urban centres.

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We need to sink Reform UK’s flagship policy

A few days ago, the Appeals Court ruled in favour of the Labour Government, allowing asylum seekers to remain at The Bell Hotel in Epping, Essex. Despite this new precedent, all twelve Reform-controlled councils have announced that they will still pursue legal challenges against asylum hotels, with some Conservative-controlled councils indicating that they will follow suit.

Immigration and asylum. Those are Reform UK’s top priorities. They have announced Operation Restoring Justice, a pledge to deport 600,000 foreign nationals over five years of a Reform government. Conflating immigrants and asylum seekers, these plans would incur harm to the UK’s international …

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AI Chatbots should not play a role in our parliamentary democracy

Last week, Mark Sewards, Leeds South West and Morley’s freshman MP, announced that he had created an AI chatbot version of himself, complete with a facsimile of his voice and an uncanny avatar. While Sewards has become the first MP to take such a step, this is not the first time that Neural Voice, the tech company behind the chatbot, has dabbled in politics; in 2024, they fielded an AI version of their chairman Steve Endacott as an Independent candidate in the Brighton Pavillion.

The West Yorkshire Labour MP said that his chatbot will “help strengthen the connection between an MP’s office and the constituents we serve” by allowing people to ask for help with local issues or policy queries and providing access to that support “24/7, 365 days a year”. However, this will likely have the opposite effect.

Prof Victoria Honeyman, a British politics lecturer at the University of Leeds, gave a nuanced verdict on Sewards’ chatbot. She said that if used to “answer simple messages, then most people would be relatively comfortable as we have in lots of different areas of our lives nowadays”, thus granting Sewards more time to focus on complicated casework. However, she conceded that it “might cause more upset” and “ people’s confidence in their MP” if mistakes are made when contending with more complicated, potentially emotionally challenging cases.

With Sewards admitting that his new chatbot is a “prototype”, he acknowledges that adjustments may be needed. It would be unfortunate if such adjustments were necessary as a result of of serious mistakes made by the AI that will negatively affect inquiring constituents. For a real-life example of AI failing under such circumstances, last year a bereaved Air Canada passenger (flying to attend his grandmother’s funeral) was misdirected by the chatbot to purchase a full price ticket rather than a bereavement discount ticket; having been told by the chatbot that he would be reimbursed the difference, Air Canada refused it. While this was an embarrassment for a private company, a community’s champion at Westminster making such mistakes would be a dereliction of duty. 

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We need a debate on Electoral Reform

As we approach the first anniversary of Labour’s loveless landslide general election victory, it is worth taking stock of the current state of British politics.

The Starmer ministry has committed a series of unpopular acts, many of which run contrary to the ethos of the Labour Party as the left-leaning of the two major parties and have proven alienating to some of their key voters. The Conservatives have failed to make any significant recovery in the opinion polls, likely due to ongoing backlash against their disastrous decisions over austerity, Brexit, coronavirus, the cost-of-living crisis and the mini-budget. And Reform UK seems on track to form the next government on a lower vote share than Labour won in 2024, with Labour and the Conservatives seemingly aping their anti-migrant, anti-woke policies in a desperate bid to reattract disaffected voters.

Such a picture would surely highlight the need for a more responsive democracy in the UK. Having usually elected a single party to majority government on under half of the national vote, First Past the Post has proven unconducive to delivering such a democracy. With declining support for the two-party status quo, FPTP may serve to elect Parliaments that have little or no bearing on voters’ intentions.

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Reform UK: Setting up themselves and their constituents for failure

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In this year’s local elections, we had a great showing. The Liberal Democrats gained 163 councillors, majority control of three county councils and now lead in five hung councils. The Conservatives and Labour were both clearly rebuked for their track records. Is it any wonder that a running theme of the election coverage has been the ‘death of two-party politics’?

However, we cannot deny that was a great night for Reform UK. They have won the concurrent Runcorn and Helsby by-election, and gained 677 new councillors, control of ten councils, and the newly created mayoralties of Hull and East Yorkshire, and Greater Lincolnshire. And they are now the leading party in three hung councils.

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Further thoughts on Parliamentary Candidates’ debates: thinking beyond First Past the Post

In a previous article, We Need Election Debates for a Parliamentary Democracy, I wrote about the current deficiencies in our broadcasted election debates, a recent innovation in British politics given their debut in 2010.

In short, I wrote about how First Past the Post has resulted in a failure to scrutinise the vast majority of parliamentary candidates, with candidates able to actively avoid limited public forums and tempted into committed egregious behaviour when in office that erodes public faith in politics. This in turn has resulted in election debates misrepresenting general elections as quasi-presidential elections for a Prime Minister, especially by the head-to-head debates between the Conservative and Labour leaders which serve to reinforce their artificial duopoly.

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The Liberal Democrats are more than the new ‘Party of Middle England’

Ed Davey and Lib Dem MPs and activists with many diamonds launch election campaign
On Monday, as our leader Ed Davey launched the Liberal Democrats’ 2025 local election campaign in Oxfordshire, he said that he wants our party to replace the Conservatives as the ‘party of Middle England’. This year, elections will be held in nineteen counties and local authorities whose councils are controlled outright by the Conservatives, most of which are located in southern England. These communities last voted for their local governments in 2021, when the Conservatives nationally had been buoyed by the fulfilment of Brexit and the coronavirus vaccination rollout but before Partygate, the mini-budget, the cost-of-living crisis and assorted scandals by their MPs.

We cannot fault Ed for wanting to pursue this strategy: it has a proven track record. Following our by-election gains in Chesham and Amersham, North Shropshire, Tiverton and Honiton, and Somerton and Frome, we got a total of seventy-two MPs elected to the Commons in 2024 by targeting Conservative constituencies primarily in the South of England. The Conservatives’ new leader Kemi Badenoch has done little to reposition the party either as an effective opposition or a government-in-waiting and is under the Damoclesian threat of removal in the face of losses in the local elections. We can understand the rationale behind this, but this should not be the be all and end all of our campaigning.

We must endeavour to extend our party’s geographic reach. As we targeted Blue Wall seats in 2024, eighty-two per cent of our current MPs represent constituencies in Southern England, a lopsided distribution that cannot be tenable in the long term. As there is a huge power and economic imbalance within the UK weighted in the South’s favour, our party may well come to be viewed as out of touch or elitist if we maintain this imbalance within our own parliamentary party.

While there is work to be done in Scotland and Wales – for which I will let more experienced and qualified voices speak – we should  consider the North of England. We have demonstrated our desire and ability to expand in the North. In 2024, we flipped the Conservative-held Westminster seats of Harrogate and Knaresborough, Cheadle, and Hazel Grove, centred on relatively affluent market towns similar to typical Southern Blue Wall seats. Despite the seeming focus on the south during this year’s local election, it is the North where we may bring a boon for our party. Hull City Council Leader Mike Ross is campaigning to become the first metro mayor of Hull and East Yorkshire, a position through which we can enact policies on a countywide scale and garner the same visibility and clout as Labour figures like Andy Burnham and Tracy Brabin. As there are local elections taking place in Conservative-controlled Northern authorities including County Durham and Lancashire, should we not be challenging them there as well?

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Increasing the Liberal Democrats’ Northern Appeal

At last year’s general election, the British people voted for change following nearly a decade of chaos under the Conservatives punctuated by austerity, Brexit, mismanagement of the COVID-19 pandemic, scandal at Westminster, the mini-budget and the cost-of-living crisis. This much was shown by the twenty-point slump in their vote share in comparison to their 2019 result.

Nationwide, our party gained 57 seats to elect a total of 72 MPs to Westminster, our best performance ever and a close parliamentary reflection of our vote share of 12.2%. Because of the distortive effects of First Past the Post, a system whereby winning only one-third of votes casts gave Labour a 411-seat landslide, we had to undertake a laser-focused campaign targeting changeable seats. While our party represents constituencies throughout Great Britain from St. Ives to Orkney and Shetland, nearly 82% of our MPs represent the South of England. This is largely the result of our new MPs being elected predominantly from the dismantled Conservatives’ Blue Wall.

By contrast, there are only four MPs representing the North of England: the incumbent Tim Farron (Westmorland and Lonsdale) and the newly elected Lisa Smart (Hazel Grove), Tom Morrison (Cheadle) and Tom Gordon (Harrogate and Knaresborough). This is not reflective of our support in the region. Because of FPTP, we won only half of our fair share of seats in Northwest England and only a quarter in Yorkshire and Humber; in Northeast England, our 5.8% vote share won us no seats while Labour won 26 out of 27 seats on 45.4%.

The North of England has historically been considered part of Labour’s Red Wall. However, the loss of many of these seats to the Conservatives in 2019 shows that Labour’s grip on the region is slipping. With Labour now in government at Westminster and their actions and inactions earning them the ire of many, we are presented with an opportunity to make further inroads and resolve a possible North-South disparity within our own party.

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Peace abroad, peace at home: Addressing the Liberal Democrats’ Achilles’ heels 

On Friday, the Starmer Government witnessed its first departure on principle as Anneliese Dodds, the Minister for International Development, resigned. With Keir Starmer having announced an increase in defence spending to 2.5% of Gross Domestic Product  by 2027, Dodds criticised the corresponding cut in international development from 0.5% of GDP to 0.3%, saying that it would ‘remove food and healthcare from desperate people – deeply harming the UK’s reputation’.

Starmer has said that there is ‘no driver of migration and poverty like conflict’ and Dodds gave him the benefit of the doubt by stating that he was not ‘ideologically opposed’ to international development. Nevertheless, Labour have broken a manifesto pledge. On page 125 of their 2024 manifesto Change, they pledged to increase the UK’s international development budget to 0.7% of GDP, reversing a cut made by the Conservatives. Reducing Britain’s soft power capacity will likely instigate rather than quell conflict.

As this episode coincides with Keir Starmer’s visit to Washington, it would not be beyond the realms of possibility that his new spending decisions are driven by pandering rather than prudence. Increasing national defence spending would be a sound means of endearing the UK to Donald Trump who has lambasted NATO allies for not spending enough in this regard, and a sound insurance policy considering his scepticism of the alliance and his wide-eyed admiration for strongman authoritarians such as Vladimir Putin.

However, the converse decrease in international development spending is a blatant attempt by Starmer to ingratiate himself with Trump by aping his administration’s actions. The Department of Government Efficiency and Elon Musk in their questionable quest to cut $2 trillion worth of federal spending – or 15% of the total US budget – have endeavoured to shut down the US Agency for International Development. Even the temporary funding freezes, overturned through court challenges, have disturbed vital support for programmes combatting diseases including tuberculosis and HIV.

Unfortunately, Labour is also likely playing to a domestic audience. Reform UK have topped several recent opinion polls albeit in the twenties alongside Labour and the Conservatives. By being generally ‘anti’ and actively playing up their position as an opposition party, Reform is drawing in aggrieved supporters  from both major parties. With the Damoclean threat of Reform winning an outright Commons majority in 2029 with even fewer votes than they did in 2024, Labour have decided that following their populist lead is the best course of action.

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Gnus and Goats: The Liberal Democrats’ Approach to Coalition Building in 2029

Today, Germany faces a test at its 2025 federal election. Following the atrocities of the National Socialists, will enough Germans be willing to support far-right politics to the extent that the Eurosceptic, anti-immigration and Islamophobic Alternative für Deutschland could become a major player in German politics.

Based on current polling, the left-leaning traffic light coalition – comprising the Social Democrats, the Free Democrats and Alliance 90/The Greens – is likely to collapse and the conservative Union parties positioned to lead the next government. AfD is currently polling in a strong second place, potentially able to form a right-leaning midnight coalition with the Union parties. However, as it is subject to a cordon sanitaire, a Union-SPD grand coalition is the most likely – and most favoured – outcome of this election.

Under the rules of Germany’s mixed-member proportional system, our sister party the Free Democrats may be evicted from the Bundestag. Deputies are elected either through single-member constituencies under First Past the Post or through a national list, with parties needing to win five per cent of the national vote to be guaranteed representation via the latter. Sadly, the FDP is polling below this threshold. Based on current polling, other parties that could win Bundestag representation and thus serve as potential non-AfD coalition partners include the Greens, Die Linke, and Reason and Justice.

However, if AfD is left out of government, the formation of a grand coalition or equivalent (blackberry or Kenya) could see the party gain a beneficial position as the official opposition. If a Union-SPD-led coalition is unable to tackle many of the problems facing Germany, such as inflation or deindustrialisation, AfD will be able to criticise it and lay the groundwork for a victory at the next election.

Whatever the results of Germany’s federal election, they should serve as a salutary lesson to us Liberal Democrats going into the next general election. Like Germany, the UK has an unpopular left-leaning (Labour) government and an insurgent far-right populist party (Reform UK) with a groundswell of support. However, unlike Germany, our major social democratic party is governing alone, the UK uses FPTP for its national elections, and the right-wing populist party rather than the traditional conservative party has been leading in many polls. In fact, some projections suggest that Reform could form a government in its own right with only a quarter of the national vote.

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Nimbyism: direct participatory democracy in action

On Saturday 1 February, scores of people in the West Yorkshire town of Sowerby Bridge attended a protest rally against a proposed small waste incinerator plant for commercial use. The proposal was approved by Calderdale Council last November despite the previous application having been overturned via judicial review and the granting of the permit overturned by the High Court.

If the incinerator were to be constructed, it would have myriad detrimental effects upon the immediate community. With Sowerby Bridge situated in the Calder Valley, the proposed stack’s height of 96 metres would mean that pollutants would be emitted at the same level as surrounding communities at higher altitudes and the tree canopy of ancient woodland. And as the incinerator is due to be constructed on the bank of the River Ryburn, the site may fall victim to flooding, as was witnessed by Sowerby Bridge in 2015.

Local residents understand the dangers that the incinerator would pose to their community which is why they came out in force. This is not a partisan issue. In addition to Liberal Democrat councillors (and the former Mayor and Deputy Mayor) Ashley Evans and Sue Holdsworth, the rally was attended by representatives of the Green Party and the National Education Union. Despite approval being given by a Labour-controlled council, Labour figures such as Cllr Simon Ashton of Sowerby Bridge and Halifax MP Kate Dearden spoke out against the proposal.

Nimbyism is often derided as simple obstructionism, motivated by a gainsay resistance to change or a desire not to jeopardise a privileged situation. Prime examples of this would be denying the building of new houses or renewable energy infrastructure to prevent a fall in property values.

However, the cry of ‘not in my backyard’ can easily be made against proposals that would have clearly deleterious impacts upon local communities, as can be argued with the Sowerby Bridge incinerator or fracking or nuclear waste repositories.

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Labour’s potentially hazardous approach to Donald Trump

Come 20 January 2025, Donald Trump will be inaugurated as the President of the United States, again. This is not an outcome that we Liberal Democrats desired, but it cannot go unrecognised, particularly as it was part of an anti-incumbency wave that characterised the ‘year of elections’. However, it does not mean that we should accept the actions of his incoming administration without question or complaint, especially those which have a direct impact upon the United Kingdom.

Several newspapers, principally of the right of the UK’s news landscape, have reported two prospects that would constitute likely hazards. The first is the spectre, as raised by Ambassador-designate Lord Peter Mandelson, of Nigel Farage being invited to serve as a bridgebuilder between Labour and Trump during talks for a UK-US trade deal. And the second is the possibility that Donald Trump will be offered an invitation to a state visit to the United Kingdom, including a royal reception.

While Farage’s potential role in trade talks has been dismissed by Downing Street insiders, Labour’s approach to engaging with Trump diplomatically may be too ingratiating or enabling. This may be best demonstrated when David Lammy, the Foreign Secretary, walked back his comments that Trump was ‘no friend of Britain’, a ‘tyrant’, ‘a woman-hating, neo-Nazi-sympathising sociopath’, and ‘deluded, dishonest, xenophobic, narcissistic’, seemingly having been swayed after one dinner with him.

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Should we be planning for a General Election this early?

On the UK Parliament e-petitions webpage, a petition has been created calling for an early general election to be called, with its creator stating that:

I believe the current Labour Government have gone back on the promises they laid out in the lead up to the last election.

At time of writing, it has garnered more than five times as many signatures than the 100,000 required for a parliamentary debate to be held on the subject, with the UK Government not yet issuing a response.

Following the repeal of the 2011 Fixed-term Parliaments Act, the prerogative power to call general elections was effectively restored to the Prime Minister. As Labour won a Commons supermajority in 2024, albeit due to the distortive effects of the First Past the Post system, Keir Starmer is more likely to push the next general election as far back as possible until (perhaps) his government’s actions are only memories.

However, if another general election were to happen about four years ahead of schedule, what would happen and how would our party respond?

The 2024 election ended nearly a decade of chaos under the Conservatives. Following austerity, a botched Brexit deal, the mismanaged COVID-19 response, corruption and sleaze, the mini-budget and the cost-of-living crisis, the British people voted to get them out of office, which by default got Labour into power. It also witnessed increased fortunes for third parties. Whilst we won 72 seats, near-proportionate to our total vote share, the three highest-polling third parties – the Liberal Democrats, Reform UK and the Green Party of England and Wales – won a combined vote share of one-third, comparable to Labour’s. The UK election was one of many in 2024 that followed a worldwide anti-incumbency trend, and the failed delivery of meaningful change has prompted this call for a new election.

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Could sortition help to address voter apathy and public distrust in politics?

The theme of the 2024 General Election was meant to be change. Apart from the end of the chaotic Conservative government and its replacement by a Labour one, the course seems to have been stayed in many ways. Labour is pursuing austerity measures similar to those carried out by the Conservatives, and seems to have become mired in scandal, notably over freebies such as football and concert tickets. And Starmer has abandoned many positions which he endorsed as a Labour leadership candidate now that he is Prime Minister.

The 2024 General Election proved to be one of the most disproportionate in UK history. Voter turnout fell below 60%, Labour won over 400 seats with a lower share of the vote than they won at the two previous elections, and the two major parties won their lowest combined vote share since 1918. Such election outcomes and such behaviour by politicians have brought public trust in politics to record lows. This and resulting voter apathy can create a negative feedback loop where lower turnout can diminish the legitimacy of decision-making, leading to great distrust in politics.

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How should we regulate in-Vitro Gametogenesis?

Generative artificial intelligences such as ChatGPT and DALL-E, once considered science fiction in the belief that creativity was the reserve of human consciousness, now threatens the livelihoods of professional creatives, and to undermine democracy through misinformation. Its recent advent means that it is largely unregulated.

This demonstrates why we should take advantage of any opportunities to openly debate and consider all the implications of technologies which we know are on the horizon but will not be commonplace for years. One such technology that this would apply to would be in vitro gametogenesis.

In vitro gametogenesis is an assisted reproduction technology which involves the creation of gametes by converting somatic cells – skin, blood or hair – into pluripotent stem cells. Proof of principle has been demonstrated in experiments in mice at Kyoto University as early as 2012. With work towards human application of IVG being pursued by academic institutions as well as private companies such as Conception, it may not be an issue of if but when. Given that, our party at least should consider all the possible consequences of this technology, and how it should be regulated.

Fundamentally, IVG would cure infertility, overcoming many of the limitations of current ARTs such as in vitro fertilisation that are tied to the fertility of one or both parents. If someone’s fertility has been impacted by illness, physical injury or medical intervention, IVG would offer couples the chance of the pursuit of happiness in starting a family.

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We need election debates for a Parliamentary Democracy

In 2024, ‘the year of elections’, the UK’s general election saw the end of fourteen years of calamitous Conservative governance, while the ongoing US election campaigns have proved tumultuous, to put it mildly. Regardless of the changes to the Democratic ticket, the presidential and vice-presidential debates gave Americans the chance to know who they are voting for in that race. In the UK, however, such debates have made things less clear.

The 2010 general election saw the advent of televised debates. Originally proposed in 1964, they were opposed in the belief that presidential-style debates were alien to British political culture and would emphasise personalities over policies and were prevented from materialising earlier by disagreements over format and partisan impulses to deny favourable coverage to opposition figures. Now, they are part and parcel of general election campaigns.

When they debuted in 2010, the ITV, Sky and the BBC leaders’ debates between Brown, Cameron and Clegg were accompanied by Channel 4’s Ask the Chancellors debate on fiscal policy and a series of policy area debates on the BBC’s Daily Politics between the responsible minister and their shadow counterparts. The latter formats arguably ensured that issues remained a focus during the election.

However, there were noticeable format changes in subsequent elections. The 2015 debates saw several new formats which emphasised the primacy of party leaders including a head-to-head programme between the two major party leaders, and the last Politics Daily debates between parties’ portfolio holders. From the 2017 election onwards, concerns regarding the propensity of presidentialism and personalities in debates have been vindicated. This trend likely arose due to parties who rely more on the popularity of their leaders than their policies manipulating broadcasters’ commitment to due impartiality to gain an advantage, or broadcasters succumbing to an impulse to entertain rather than educate.

We should seek to revive special policy area debates to make elections about issues and not personalities, and to re-emphasise the fact that we are a parliamentary – not presidential – democracy. However, we need to go further if we wish to remedy the latter problem.

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Why we should condemn the US Electoral College

We are five weeks away from Election Day in the US, and things have certainly been eventful in the presidential race, to put it mildly.

This election may be American democracy’s greatest test. With revenge in mind, and with a guide to converting the federal bureaucracy into a conservative vehicle and removing many checks on presidential power vis-a-vis Project 2025, a second Trump presidency would be dramatically worse than his first and may well signal the end of American democracy. Even in defeat, his refusal to accept the results in a tight race will likely instigate political violence as it did on 6 January 2021, but across multiple states. Since the United States is one of the greatest military and economic powers on Earth, as well as an ally and proudly democratic country, such outcomes would be deleterious to the rest of the free world.

The Electoral College is the key to Donald Trump’s success in 2024. Despite Kamala Harris’s nationwide three-point lead, this may be insufficient to overcome its distortive effects. However, Trump may not even need to win states’ popular votes to win the Electoral College. Learning from 2020, pro-Trump Republican strategists have endeavoured to put in place election officials who will refuse any state-level result other than a Trump win to enable the appointment of Republican electors by Republican-controlled legislatures.

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Coalition with Starmer’s Labour?

In principle, it should not take the Conservatives’ disastrous record in government for the past fourteen years for Labour under Keir Starmer, which does not seem to stand for anything other than vaguely promising change, to win by a landslide. Labour’s double-digit lead unfortunately begs to differ.

However, after the recent local elections in England, as well as the Blackpool South by-election, Starmer did not rule out entering coalition with our party if Labour failed to win an outright parliamentary majority at the next general election. In contrast, he categorically ruled out doing so with the Scottish Nationalist Party owing to a ‘fundamental disagreement’ on Scottish independence.

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Some thoughts on the Alliance for Radical Democratic Change

In December of last year, former Prime Minister Gordon Brown published his report A New Britain. It endorsed constitutional changes including the replacement of the House of Lords with an elected senate and greater devolution for cities and regions across the UK, intended to resolve the ‘unreformed, over-centralised way of governing that leaves millions of people complaining they are neglected, ignored, and invisible’.

Last Thursday, he announced the launch of the Alliance for Radical Democratic Change, a campaign aiming for the adoption of A New Britain’s recommendations as policies in Labour next election manifesto and subsequent enactment by a future Labour government. Members of the ARDC include Welsh First Minister Mark Drakeford and Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, with Scottish Labour leader Ansar Sarwar and West Yorkshire Mayor Tracy Brabin appearing as speakers at the group’s launch event.

Whilst there is significant overlap in the constitutional reforms supported by our party as policy and recommended by the ARDC, there is one area where the ARDC have come up short: electoral reform. Like Labour’s National Executive Committee, the ARDC seems apprehensive to support the replacement of Britain’s outdated First Past The Post voting system with one of proportional representation, despite such a move being favoured by a majority of Britons and an overwhelming majority of Labour members. As a matter of fact, by not supporting electoral reform, the ARDC will likely have hobbled its own agenda.

One of the key reasons why millions of people currently feel alienated from Westminster, and by extension Whitehall, is because of FPTP. It horribly distorts voters’ intentions at both the local and national levels. Members of Parliament can be elected despite being opposed by most of their constituents and may not feel any need to engage with them if they represent a safe seat. And solitary parties that can exercise total control in government with only a plurality of the national vote; although its advocates state that ‘strong, stable government’ is a benefit of FPTP, it does not guarantee it, as recent years have proved. If the ARDC were serious about

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Perfect balance: The Liberal Democrats’ ideal outcome at the next General Election

The 2023 local elections have finally passed. Many of us put a great deal of time and effort into leafleting and canvassing around our communities to get out the vote and even to sway some voters. At these elections, we won a net gain of over 400 councillors and control of the councils in:

  • Chichester
  • Horsham
  • Stratford-upon-Avon
  • Dacorum
  • West Berkshire
  • South Oxfordshire
  • Guildford
  • Surrey Heath
  • Windsor and Maidenhead
  • Mid Devon
  • South Hams
  • Teignbridge
Posted in Op-eds | Tagged and | 31 Comments

Douglas Ross: A tale of two voting systems

Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross has recently called for a Unionist tactical voting pact in Scotland during the next UK general election to unseat Scottish Nationalist MPs, with free rein given to Labour in urban seats and to the Conservatives in rural ones. However, this proposal was ultimately rejected by both Scottish Labour and the UK Conservatives.

Ross inhabits two different worlds, having won one election under Additional Member System and another under First Past the Post. He is simultaneously one of seven regional MSPs for the Highlands and Islands elected via Closed Party List, and the sole MP for Moray. His position at Westminster is precarious, having won just 513 votes more than the SNP runner-up, whilst List-PR grants him greater job security at Holyrood. For the Conservatives generally, they are the second-largest party in Scotland at both Westminster and Holyrood. However, at the 2019 general election, the Conservatives won only six of Scotland’s fifty-nine seats with a quarter of the votes cast there, whilst at the 2021 Scottish parliamentary election, they won thirty-one out of 129 seats, or around twenty-four per cent, in line with their constituency and regional vote shares.

It cannot be denied that Douglas Ross has practical, real-world experience of both FPTP and PR, making him a unique figure in British politics. However, given how their Scottish branch has fared better under PR than they have under FPTP, he is also an uncomfortable paradox for the Conservatives, to which the story around his proposed pact is testament.

A prominent feature of FPTP is vote splitting, whereby electoral support split amongst several likeminded parties or candidates can result in an ideological opponent winning. Whilst this has historically benefitted the Conservatives, it has recently given a boost to the SNP, and for not dissimilar reasons. Both parties have virtually monopolised their voting bases – the right and Nationalists respectively – allowing them to disproportionately win more seats than any one party amongst their diverse oppositions.

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How do we win the arguments for Proportional Representation?

Labour’s National Executive effectively vetoed a motion passed by an overwhelming majority of party delegates at its Annual Conference to replace First Past The Post with Proportional Representation for British general elections. Doubtless this decision was influenced by recent opinion polling and seat projections which, if accurate, suggest that Labour are on course to win a majority in excess of three hundred seats. Who knows, perhaps such a disproportionate result may be the catalyst for electoral reform.

Before the next general election, whilst Labour grassroots members continue to pressure its leadership into supporting PR, we Liberal Democrats should change the terms of debate over electoral reform, and to that end educate the public about what PR entails.

In Britain, when electoral reform is debated, FPTP and PR are horrifically misrepresented. FPTP is portrayed as a standalone voting system, rather than just one of many majoritarian systems such as Alternative Voting or Two-round System. Meanwhile, PR systems are homogenised to the extent that majoritarian systems other than FPTP, namely AV, are misrepresented as forms of PR. Public miseducation about PR has allowed its opponents to craft horror stories of unworkable fragmented Parliaments and headache-inducing means of calculating results, patronisingly presenting FPTP as the safer, simpler system. If we hope to ever replace FPTP, debate over electoral reform should be about how we adopt PR rather than whether we should. This requires us to inform the public how the different systems work, not Single Transferable Voting, particularly in countering common anti-PR arguments.

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How to achieve Electoral Reform in the light of Keir Starmer’s obstructionism

On Monday, members at Labour’s Annual Conference voted in favour of a motion to replace First Past the Post with Proportional Representation in general elections. This comes after Unison, Unite, and the GMB, three of Britain’s largest trade unions, came out in support of PR in the months following the 2021 Labour Conference, where the withholding of such resulted in the failure of a similar motion despite nearly eighty per cent of Constituency delegates supporting it.

However, it seems as though Labour’s National Executive Committee will ignore the motion, preventing such a promise from becoming part of their next manifesto. With Keir Starmer saying that ‘it’s not a priority’, he plans to ignore the wishes of the majority of his party’s members, the red wall voters he needs to win back, and indeed the wider British public, and reap the rewards of disproportionate, unstable FPTP and gross Conservative mismanagement to win an unwarranted parliamentary majority.

As the next general election is likely to be upwards of two years away, the Labour leadership could yield to popular demands and adopt PR as official policy if pressure on them is maintained. Nevertheless, moving forward, we Liberal Democrats must consider our strategy for how to abolish FPTP given official opposition to such by one of the major parties against the wishes of its own supporters and its own self-interests.

Whilst FPTP is favoured by the larger parties for supposedly providing strong single party governments, recent history has proven otherwise. Seven out of the ten years of the 2010s saw the election of hung Parliaments, with the Conservatives losing their majority in 2017 despite increasing their vote share to 42.3% up from 36.8% in 2015. It may be possible that FPTP delivers unto Labour a plurality or a razor-thin majority, rather than a working majority. If we manage to poach enough blue wall seats, we would be the most palatable option for Labour as a potential coalition or confidence-and-supply agreement partner.

We should learn from our party’s previous experience with negotiating with a major party in achieving electoral reform. In 2010, we entered into coalition with the Conservatives on condition that a referendum be held over replacing FPTP with Alternative Voting. With still-majoritarian AV being a dissatisfactory substitute to both FPTP and Single Transferable Voting, our party’s preference then and now, the Conservatives and Labour alike depicted it as scary, confusing, and distracting. The defeat of AV wrongly signified for some, most notably David Cameron, the defeat of PR, stymieing momentum for years afterwards.

If we find ourselves in the same position again but with Labour, we must be more determined. If the Conservatives were the only adamantly anti-PR party in Parliament, and all others were broadly in favour of it, we could insist that electoral reform be achieved via a simple Act of Parliament without a referendum. A broadly pro-PR supermajority in Parliament would have sufficient a mandate to do so.

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Proposals for a Federal Upper House

Our party is committed to numerous constitutional reforms intended to better represent the people in Government and Parliament. A comprehensive and interconnected constitutional reform programme is needed now more than ever, given the damage inflicted by the Conservatives upon our Union and constitutional norms, and the prospect of Labour their own plan this month. Therefore, we should consider developing and reconciling our plans to House of Lords reforms and establishing ‘a strong, federal and united United Kingdom.’

A Senate of Regions would be preferable to the current Lords, over-representative of London, the South-East and the East of England and including members owing their positions to political favouritism or quid pro quos rooted in party donations. However, a fully and directly elected upper house may not be popular. The deliberative role of the current Lords will likely be undermined if all its members were forever bearing in mind re-election prospects. And, with sixty per cent of respondents in one survey believing that the Lords already had too many politicians, support may be found lacking for the establishment of an all-politician chamber incurring the same gridlock that plagues the US Congress. That is why we should consider reforming the Lords into a hybrid chamber, reduced in size to 300 members (for reasons that will become apparent later).

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged | 24 Comments
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