In America, it is conventional political wisdom that the campaign for their next presidential election begins the day after the last one. A recent opinion poll suggests that half of Americans are already considering the far-off 2028 race, although this may be testament to the unpopularity, corruption and chaos of Trump and his second administration.

The 2025 off-year elections in the US were the first opportunity for voters to rebuke Trump with many local and down-ballot elections receiving greater attention and the Democrats making a clean sweep wherever they were held. With a blue wave is anticipated at the 2026 midterms, Republicans have either undertaken gerrymanders or announced their intention not to run again.

From a British and Liberal Democratic perspective, we have welcomed Democratic wins as signs that Americans still support democracy. As the result of the 2028 election will affect UK-US relations – hopefully for the better – and may influence the subsequent UK general election due by 2029, it may be worth looking back at past elections to see how it may play out.

I am not writing to determine who will be the candidate for either party, primarily as it may be premature. For the Democrats, in 1970 Edmund Muskie was considered their presumptive nominee for 1972, in 1986 it was Gary Hart for 1988, and in 2006 it was Hillary Clinton for 2008. And in 2013, who seriously believed that Trump would be the Republican nominee for 2016?

Potential Democratic nominees for 2028 include Gavin Newsom, Andy Beshear, Josh Sharpio, Gretchen Whitmer and JB Pritzker, principally because of the past successes of governors in presidential elections and Democrats’ recent tendency to field senators. While governors can demonstrate executive leadership experience, the US Senate is deeply unpopular, viewed as ineffective and obstructionist. While nine incumbent governors were elected President, only three incumbent senators have done so. While ‘Washington experience’ may be a drawback in 2028, gubernatorial track records on issues such as crime and affordability may discourage voters outside of governors’ home states.

Kamala Harris has hinted at a second run, deciding against a gubernatorial run in California this year. She is leading multiple polls for the Democratic primaries. Her 2024 candidacy drew multiple comparisons to Hubert Humphrey’s 1968 run. Both won the nomination without contesting a single primary after the incumbent President unexpectedly suspended their campaign for renomination, both had to defend unpopular records and US responses to unpopular conflicts, and both ended up losing to Republicans. Compounding her 2024 defeat and her poor 2020 primary performance, presidential candidates such as William Jennings Bryan, Thomas E. Dewey and Adlai Stevenson II who ran as their parties’ representative in several elections and lost each time set an example that Democrats may hesitate to follow.

Pete Buttgeig and Marco Rubio have been touted as potential candidates for their respective parties. Eight Cabinet secretaries have been elected President, with five serving in their position immediately prior, although three-quarters of these figures were Secretaries of State.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is considered the foremost progressive choice for the Democratic nomination, having great appeal among younger voters. House Representatives being elected President has precedent but not much. Of the eighteen who previously served as Representatives, only Abraham Lincoln and James Garfield went from one to the other without serving in other offices. While conventional political wisdom says that a Representative does not have enough national appeal or notoriety to be President, AOC may have overcome these obstacles through nationwide speaking tours and social media.

Who the Democrats will be running against is as important as who they will run. Despite Trump’s threat or ‘joke’ about a third term, JD Vance is the presumptive nominee, being the first Republican to receive endorsements. Although the 2026 midterms may affect his decision to pursue it, recent speculation regarding impeachment, the invocation of the Twenty-fifth Amendment and Trump’s health may see Vance go into 2028 as the Forty-eighth President. Either way, history may not be on Vance’s side.

Of the fifteen VPs to become President, eight did so in the event of death and one following resignation; of those nine, five were not elected in their own right. Of the six VPs elected President in their own right, Richard Nixon and Joe Biden had been out of office before doing so. Neither incumbent VPs or Presidents are guaranteed a primary victory, let alone one in the general election. Five incumbent VPs have failed to win their parties’ nomination, and Chester A. Arthur lost the 1884 Republican nomination albeit hampered by poor health. Even in the event of victories over primary challengers, such as Gerald Ford’s over Ronald Reagan in 1976, public party disunity may doom a President’s of VP’s campaign.

While America’s current political climate may be considered unprecedented, it may be possible to divine the course that the next election can take from those that have taken place before.

* Samuel James Jackson is the Chair of the Policy Committee of the Yorkshire and the Humber Liberal Democrats and had served as the Liberal Democratic candidate in Halifax during the 2024 general election.