Tag Archives: immigration policy

What is the “right” level of immigration to the UK?

There are few current issues more emotive than that of immigration, so I wanted to take a dispassionate view of the future demographic and economic implications of where we are now, and what might happen in the future, particularly if Nigel Farage achieved his aim of ‘net zero’ one-in, one-out migration as he stated in June this year.

I took as a starting point the population projections published by the Office of National Statistics.

The central assumption is that the UK’s population will grow from around 69 million today to 77 million in 2047. One key point to note in this projection is the forecast that deaths will exceed births every year from the end of this decade, and so growth is primarily driven by net inward migration at an average of 340,000 per year, with the people coming to the UK at a rate approximately double that of those leaving.

Using this data we can consider alternative scenarios. In the unlikely event that we went for absolute zero immigration while still allowing British citizens to leave and taking into account below-replacement birth rates, the population would fall dramatically to around 61 million in 2047 with a collapse in the number of those of working age.

However if we look at the ‘net zero’ position advocated by Farage, then the population would fall slightly from its current 69 million to 67.5 million by 2047. At first glance this might appear an insignificant change, but in reality the effects are dramatic.

The reason for the significance is demographics. Other data from the ONS shows that 94% of immigrants coming to the UK are of working age, as are 93% of those emigrating from the UK. However, the UK’s existing population is ageing, and we currently have a ratio of working age people to non-working age (children and pensioners) of about 1.8.

In Farage’s ‘net zero’ scenario, we end up with a falling ratio of working to non-working age to around 1.5, and a working age population in 2047 roughly 2.5 million lower than it is today, most of whom will have become pensioners. This has huge implications for both taxation and spending, because getting old is expensive.

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Mathew on Monday: Labour’s Reform-lite immigration crackdown isn’t leadership – it’s politics by fear

Today the Labour government is unveiling what it grandly calls the “largest asylum overhaul in modern times”. In reality, it’s a Reform-lite crackdown designed to appease the tabloids and outflank the Right, rather than deliver a workable, humane, or genuinely thought-through immigration system.

Temporary refugee status, a 20-year wait for permanent settlement, harsher limits on family reunion, and tightened appeal rights-these aren’t the hallmarks of a compassionate, confident government – they’re the trademark of a party terrified of looking ‘soft,’ a government more interested in signalling toughness than addressing the real drivers of a broken system. Ministers coaching their MPs to fall into line or risk looking weak only reinforces that is pure politics, not sensible policy.

Liberals should say this clearly: You don’t fix the asylum system by making life harder for refugees. You fix it by creating safe, managed, humane routes to the UK; by processing claims efficiently; and by helping people (not forcing them) to integrate and contribute once they’re here, as the overwhelming majority of people do.

A genuinely fair system would do three things.

First, expand safe and legal routes so people fleeing war and persecution don’t have to gamble their lives on dangerous journeys.
We know this works – it’s the safest, most cost-effective, and most orderly way to protect people and maintain public confidence.

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From now on, no decent person can vote Tory – UPDATE

Last week, I wrote about the appalling Tory plan to deport millions of legally settled people.

This plan involved cancelling the Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR) of people who are not UK Citizens if they were (among other things) living in a council house, not earning more than £38,700, or had a disabled dependent receiving State benefits. As Shadow Home Office Minister, Katie Lam, said at the time, this policy would target “a mostly, but not entirely, culturally coherent group of people.”

It seems this may have been a step too far even for the Tories. The Guardian reports that …

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How to fight the far right

The last few weeks have been a worrying time. Friends of mine have told me that, because they aren’t white, they are worried about visiting parts of our country. Robert Jenrick and other politicians have implied you are only properly British if you are white. Last weekend we saw shocking violence on London’s streets from far right racist thugs. It’s like an horrific throwback to the 80s – a ‘This is England’ nightmare.

Most worryingly, our Prime Minister failed to condemn these threats.

In this climate we Liberal Democrats must call out racism, and say, at …

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Mathew on Monday: Patriotism, flags, and motive

Happy September 1st, folks.

And if it’s the first Monday in September, the return of Parliament, and the start of the new political season, it must mean the return of your favourite column by a Lib Dem, gay, Christian, (anti monarchist) Republican, Woke, progressive former Councillor… er, that’d be me then.

But seriously I’m delighted to be back in this space after a month off; rejuvenated, revitalised, and ready to give my forthright but hopefully also well informed and nuanced views about the Lib Dems and politics more widely as head towards Conference season, a possible Government reshuffle, the Budget, internal party elections, and lots more.

So, where to start?

Well, as we all know, the summer has been dominated by the issue of migration, small boat crossings, flags, patriotism, hotels, and protests. And what a deeply unedifying spectacle it had been.

Some in our country, in our media (both old and new) appear to have lost the ability to talk about potentially contentious issues in a way which deals with facts and from a place of care, rather than with falsehoods and from a place of hate.

On Saturday evening I made my debut on GB News. Now I appreciate that is very unlikely to be the channel of choice for most readers of this column, but we have to face the reality that lots of people do watch/listen to it and we as a party need to be trying to communicate with them as much as any body else; we shouldn’t just write them off as ‘not our people’ or ‘beyond the pale.’

I was chuffed to be invited on the debut edition of ‘Alex Armstrong Tonight,’ to talk about the flags issue. Or, more specifically, the alleged ‘hypocrisy’ of Lib Dem run Portsmouth City Council having apparently said that it’ll clean away the St George’s crosses painted on roundabouts in its locality whilst at the same time having previously agreed a rainbow pedestrian crossing.

On the programme I said, “In terms of the rainbow pedestrian crossing, that will have had to go through safety checks, and been agreed by the Council, and be voted on. That’s a bit different, isn’t it, to people taking it upon themselves to paint stuff on a roundabout.”

Later in the segment I said, “The rainbow flag represents diversity, it celebrates modernity, it celebrates the right to be different, and I just worry that there’s something much darker going on in terms of some of these people that are painting the St George’s Cross. I’m really concerned about it. I think it’s supposed to stoke fear, it’s supposed to stoke resentment, and I believe it’s starting to do that.”

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We need to sink Reform UK’s flagship policy

A few days ago, the Appeals Court ruled in favour of the Labour Government, allowing asylum seekers to remain at The Bell Hotel in Epping, Essex. Despite this new precedent, all twelve Reform-controlled councils have announced that they will still pursue legal challenges against asylum hotels, with some Conservative-controlled councils indicating that they will follow suit.

Immigration and asylum. Those are Reform UK’s top priorities. They have announced Operation Restoring Justice, a pledge to deport 600,000 foreign nationals over five years of a Reform government. Conflating immigrants and asylum seekers, these plans would incur harm to the UK’s international …

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27 August 2025 – today’s Federal press releases

  • Energy price cap: Government must cancel rise and take up plan to halve bills
  • Mounjaro supply chaos: Lib Dems call for CMA investigation
  • Farage u-turn shows he “has taken as much time reading his own plan as he does his constituents’ emails”
  • Thames Water fines: Govt should stop “wheeling and dealing” and finally put customers first
  • Ed Davey to boycott Trump state banquet in push to end Gaza’s humanitarian disaster

Energy price cap: Government must cancel rise and take up plan to halve bills

Responding to Ofgem announcing that the energy price cap will rise by 2%, Liberal Democrat Leader Ed Davey said:

The last thing struggling

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“Are you kidding me?” – A Response to the Lib Dem Home Affairs Spokesperson’s Response to the Labour Government

I joined the Liberal Democrats in 2016, when then party leader Tim Farron made clear that the Liberal Democrats would continue to fight for the UK’s place in the EU. A place in the EU that would have preserved freedom of movement and allowed for us to remain a vibrant and multicultural society which recognises that foreign workers strengthen our economy and industries, not weaken them.

I have since stayed in the party, a party which I believe reflects my feeling that immigration is not a bad thing. I have supported and spoken up for calls such as Christine Jardine’s to …

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Immigration: Clear plan needed to make it easier to recruit British workers for vacancies instead

Normally, this would be published later in the day but, as it has already drawn a response from one of our readers, it seems appropriate to publish it now…

Responding to the Government’s new immigration policy, Liberal Democrat Home Affairs Spokesperson, Lisa Smart MP:

After the previous Conservative Government’s dire mismanagement, our immigration system has been left in tatters and public trust has been shattered. It’s right that the government is taking steps to fix our broken immigration system to ensure it works for our country.

However, this must be coupled with a clear plan to make it easier to recruit

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Welcome to my day: 17 July 2023 – “the things that pass for knowledge I can’t understand”*

I have to admit that I’ve been struggling for inspiration of late, which might explain why Mondays have been a bit devoid of content for a few weeks. I’m also rather busier than I had expected, what with my responsibilities in the town and parish council sector, a Parliamentary candidate selection to manage and a day job. But all you can do is keep trying, so here I am to start another week…

There are times when you wonder what a group of politicians are really thinking. For instance, the “New Conservatives” are seriously proposing to restrict the number of foreign care workers allowed into the country, with the expectation that this will drive up salaries in the sector and entice British workers to fill the gap. Sounds simple, right?

Bear in mind that there are already 165,000 vacancies in the social care sector, that local government is buckling under the financial burden of paying for social care, that unemployment is pretty low in large parts of the country and that there are, frankly, easier ways of making a living, and you realise just how daft such an idea is.

And now, in their desperation to drive down net migration figures, the Government have turned to foreign students, making Britain a less attractive destination in a competitive global further education market. I am reminded that British universities have been driven to recruit more and more overseas students in order to balance their books and so, universities are being urged to cut the number of “low value” courses offered to bridge the resulting gap. Because, once again, Conservatives are giving the impression that they don’t like foreigners, don’t believe in choice – you’re paying for an education, so why shouldn’t you have one that you want? – and actually can’t think beyond the initial impact of their prejudices.

Are they really attempting to tear everything down before the next General Election?

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30 July 2020 – the overnight press release

Liberal Democrats: Tories’ appeasement of anti-immigration lobby will cause chaos

Responding to a report from Migration Watch criticising the Government’s planned “points-based” immigration system, Liberal Democrat Home Affairs spokesperson Christine Jardine said:

This shows how short-sighted it is for the Conservatives to focus all their attention on appeasing the anti-immigration lobby who will always want more.

Groups like Migration Watch are still not happy, even though the Government’s new immigration system will be incredibly damaging to the NHS, social care and small businesses across the UK by excluding people with a valuable contribution to make.

Six months is nowhere near enough time for either

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13 July 2020 – today’s press releases

  • Liberal Democrats table Bill to introduce ‘X’ gender option on passports
  • Government’s destructive immigration plans will cause chaos and confusion
  • “Outrageous” social care exclusion from Government’s new Health and Care Visa

Liberal Democrats table Bill to introduce ‘X’ gender option on passports

Ahead of International Non-Binary People’s Day , Liberal Democrat Equalities Spokesperson Christine Jardine will present a Private Members’ Bill in the House of Commons to require the Government to introduce an ‘X’ gender option on passports.

Christine Jardine’s ‘Non-gender-specific Passports Bill’, supported by Stonewall, would “require the Secretary of State to make non-gender-specific passports available to non-gendered, non-binary and other people who …

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21 May 2020 – today’s press releases (part 1)

And if you thought that yesterday was intense…

  • Lib Dems: Tackling the climate crisis is at the heart of coronavirus recovery
  • Govt must reimburse missed tuition to student nurses called up to the frontline
  • 51,906 asylum seekers trapped on just £5.39 a day during coronavirus crisis
  • EU Settled Status deadline must be scrapped, as grants crater during coronavirus crisis
  • New stats show damaging impact of Priti Patel’s nasty immigration rhetoric

Lib Dems: Tackling the climate crisis is at the heart of coronavirus recovery

The Liberal Democrats have secured cross-party support for their calls for local authorities to be empowered to enact measures that would help tackle the climate emergency as well as recover from the coronavirus crisis.

The cross-party letter sent to Communities Secretary Robert Jenrick states “we cannot simply return ‘back to normal’” and that “tackling the climate emergency is at the heart of our recovery”.

Liberal Democrat Spokesperson for the Climate Emergency, Energy and the Environment Wera Hobhouse initiated the letter, putting forward measures that include incentivising councils to support sustainable travel, revitalising high streets and allowing local authorities to close streets to traffic at allocated times.

Following the letter, Wera Hobhouse said:

We cannot return to ‘normal’ following the Covid-19 crisis. The measures introduced by the Transport Secretary to promote the use of sustainable transport are welcome, but without cross departmental buy-in they will fail to have a lasting impact on how we travel.

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Food for thought on “the brightest and the best”

In the Guardian letters columns recently, there were good letters from Michael Meadowcroft, Mike Cashman, Malcolm Pim, and Guri Singh on the new points based system for migrants.

All expressed views on those that the Government is saying it would welcome, such as doctors and highly skilled people, but however making points that we do need to think about encouraging them to leave countries where their skills are needed.

Another issue is that we have many asylum seekers in the UK, who are not welcome in their own countries, to put it mildly, and have fled here for sanctuary and safety. …

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How would Parliament manage without employees from outside the UK?

If the new immigration regulations are forced through, Parliament itself could be very short of staff. That is why I’ve tabled questions to find out exactly how many of the present staff could on appointment have satisfied these regulations. A question that is not permitted is where new recruits will come from and how many meet the demand that they must earn £25,000!

Questions about parliamentary staff would be for the Senior Deputy Speaker. However, his remit only covers matters relating to the House of Lords so he could not answer about House of Commons staff, or staff employed by members …

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28 January 2020 – today’s press releases

  • Tory proposals to end free movement will make it harder to recruit teachers, nurses and doctors
  • Liberal Democrats: Huawei decision shows no regard for its human rights record
  • Davey calls for ‘Net Zero’ department to slash UK greenhouse gas emissions
  • Liberal Democrats: Trump’s negotiations a sham

Tory proposals to end free movement will make it harder to recruit teachers, nurses and doctors

Responding to the publication of the Migration Advisory Committee report which has advised against against a full points-based system for UK, Liberal Democrat Home Affairs spokesperson Christine Jardine said:

The Conservative Government wants to impose an entirely new immigration system in less than 12

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27 January 2020 – the overnight press release

New visa is nothing more than a Tory gimmick

Responding to the Government’s announcement of a “Global Talent” visa to attract top scientists, Liberal Democrat Home Affairs spokesperson Christine Jardine said:

This announcement is nothing more than a marketing gimmick. Boris Johnson is showing that he fundamentally doesn’t understand what makes our science sector so successful. Changing the name of a visa and removing a cap that’s never been hit is not a serious plan.

Science relies on thousands of researchers, and this announcement does nothing for the vast majority of them. If the Government is serious about championing UK science, it must

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20 January 2020 – the overnight press release

Draconian changes to immigration rules are utterly unworkable

Responding to reports the Conservative Government could remove a temporary extension of the current immigration rules until 2023 and impose new restrictions on low-skilled migrants moving to the UK after Brexit, Liberal Democrat Home Affairs Spokesperson Christine Jardine said:

Decisions like this make it loud and clear that this Conservative Government has no intention off ending the hostile environment. It’s a national embarrassment.

For business and our economy, such draconian changes to immigration rules is utterly unworkable. To think the Home Office could implement the changes in the time given is a joke.

The Liberal Democrats

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16 November 2019 – today’s press releases

  • Lib Dems announce proposals to fix broken immigration system
  • Lib Dems demand internal Tory enquiry amidst electoral fraud allegations
  • Bolton fire shows further action must be taken to ensure building safety

Lib Dems announce proposals to fix broken immigration system

The Liberal Democrats today unveiled their Plan for Immigration and Asylum. The plan sets out the party’s ambitious proposals for a fair, effective immigration system – part of the Liberal Democrats’ broader plan to build a brighter future.

The Liberal Democrat manifesto will outline plans to reform and strengthen our immigration system by:

  • Saving EU free movement and safeguarding the rights of UK and EU

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9-10 November 2019 – the weekend’s press releases

That’s rather embarrassing, in that I managed to fall asleep mid-edit. So, time to catch up…

  • Lib Dems respond to Conservative announcement on GP appointments
  • Lib Dems: Boris Johnson should call Cobra meeting over flooding emergency
  • Labour People’s Vote promise rings hollow – Lib Dems
  • Labour People’s Vote promise rings hollow – Lib Dems
  • Lib Dems: Manifestos must receive OBR scrutiny

Lib Dems respond to Conservative announcement on GP appointments

Responding to the Conservative Party’s announcement today on GP appointments, Luciana Berger, Liberal Democrat Shadow Secretary for Health, Wellbeing and Social Care, said:

This latest Tory announcement isn’t offering any real solutions to the current

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27 June 2019 – today’s press releases

Johnson pandering to Farage over immigration

Responding to Boris Johnson’s promises to investigate an ‘Australian-style’ policy for immigration, Liberal Democrat Home Affairs Spokesperson Ed Davey said:

Immigration has been a great thing for our country. But politicians like Johnson have vilified those coming to help build and contribute to our great country for their own political gain in the Brexit debate.

Yet businesses across the country are already having to deal with acute shortages of staff thanks to the Brexit uncertainty, and this proposal from our potential next PM does nothing to solve that. If implemented, an Australian-style visa cap would

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A more effective and compassionate approach to immigration and asylum

Liberal Democrats for Seekers of Sanctuary held a joint fringe meeting at Lib Dem Conference in York with Social and Liberal Forum, addressing the Immigration Bill currently being debated in Parliament.

Ed Davey MP spoke of some of the impact that Brexit would have on immigration issues, and how he was using some of the new Lib Dem policies in the debates around the Bill.

Only some amendments would be allowed, those that fit in with the “Long title” of the Bill, which ties it to European issues. Success on many of the amendments to the Bill will depend on full support from Labour though.

There is the big problem of those without settled status from the EU who are living here. If they haven’t applied and gone through system there will be huge problems by 2020 for them. It is outrageous to take existing rights away. A declaratory system would be a much better way. Talking of the proposal of the ending of free movement of labour, he spoke of how this was going to impact on those from the UK who worked in the EU.

Interestingly, whilst talking about the benefits of immigration, he also talked about how people’s attitude to immigration is beginning to change as the impact of Brexit is becoming more apparent. People are realising there is a real benefit to immigration as the impact on loss of health care staff is going to affect them and their friends.

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