Category Archives: Europe / International

Anything to do with European / international issues

Europe and Africa – an Alliance for the Future?

With a Trump induced rethink of strategic alliances in throw, should Europe (including the UK) turn to Africa for a long-term economic partnership? The RENEW group in the European Parliament have been working on this idea for 2 years now through RENEWPAC, it’s engagement project with the Africa, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) allied political groups. The third such congress took place in Abidjan, Cote d’Ivoire last month, the second I have attended on behalf of Liberal International, and the enthusiasm for a deep economic partnership was heightened by the unstable geopolitics of the moment. It was hosted generously by the Ivorian government and in particular Fisheries minister Sidi Touré, my fellow Vice President of Liberal International.

The basic theory is that Europe has shortages of labour and natural resources alongside an inward migration challenge, largely across the Mediterranean, but is relatively rich and well placed with investment resources. Africa conversely has an excess of available labour and copious natural resources, but a severe shortage of capital for investment. The African perspective is that Europe is a far better fit for economic partnership than China, as China also has excess labour and is more interested in importing African raw materials than the possibility of adding value in Africa. Europe is also much closer geographically and culturally. The Africans all stress that they do not want to replace Chinese investment, but to more than match it with investment from Europe.

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Gnus and Goats: The Liberal Democrats’ Approach to Coalition Building in 2029

Today, Germany faces a test at its 2025 federal election. Following the atrocities of the National Socialists, will enough Germans be willing to support far-right politics to the extent that the Eurosceptic, anti-immigration and Islamophobic Alternative für Deutschland could become a major player in German politics.

Based on current polling, the left-leaning traffic light coalition – comprising the Social Democrats, the Free Democrats and Alliance 90/The Greens – is likely to collapse and the conservative Union parties positioned to lead the next government. AfD is currently polling in a strong second place, potentially able to form a right-leaning midnight coalition with the Union parties. However, as it is subject to a cordon sanitaire, a Union-SPD grand coalition is the most likely – and most favoured – outcome of this election.

Under the rules of Germany’s mixed-member proportional system, our sister party the Free Democrats may be evicted from the Bundestag. Deputies are elected either through single-member constituencies under First Past the Post or through a national list, with parties needing to win five per cent of the national vote to be guaranteed representation via the latter. Sadly, the FDP is polling below this threshold. Based on current polling, other parties that could win Bundestag representation and thus serve as potential non-AfD coalition partners include the Greens, Die Linke, and Reason and Justice.

However, if AfD is left out of government, the formation of a grand coalition or equivalent (blackberry or Kenya) could see the party gain a beneficial position as the official opposition. If a Union-SPD-led coalition is unable to tackle many of the problems facing Germany, such as inflation or deindustrialisation, AfD will be able to criticise it and lay the groundwork for a victory at the next election.

Whatever the results of Germany’s federal election, they should serve as a salutary lesson to us Liberal Democrats going into the next general election. Like Germany, the UK has an unpopular left-leaning (Labour) government and an insurgent far-right populist party (Reform UK) with a groundswell of support. However, unlike Germany, our major social democratic party is governing alone, the UK uses FPTP for its national elections, and the right-wing populist party rather than the traditional conservative party has been leading in many polls. In fact, some projections suggest that Reform could form a government in its own right with only a quarter of the national vote.

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The speech Ed Davey should have made on the EU

This is the speech Ed should have made on the EU

Hats off to Ed Davey for calling for an EU/UK customs union. Last month’s call rightly attracted media attention, and amounts to the first step towards the Lib Dems re-establishing ourselves as Britain’s most pro-European party.

As a signatory to the Guardian letter in November 2023 which called on the party leadership to make a clearer statement about what the Lib Dems stand for, I give credit to Ed for his EU speech. But he should have gone much further, and framed our party’s position differently. That may sound like an extreme position – after all, leaders have to tread cautiously and take people with them – but let me explain why last month’s stance was too tentative.

All political parties are trying to carve out an identity for themselves against a backdrop of disenchantment that is fuelling populism. In particular, the 18-35 age cohort, which strongly voted Remain, feels no-one speaks for it. It therefore needs an inspiring message, one that is relayed in human, not technocratic, terms.

The case against Brexit is so clear that there are only one-and-a-half reasons not to call for the process of Britain to rejoining the EU to start right now. The main reason is that there was so much divisiveness around the referendum campaign (and afterwards) that everyone is understandably keen to avoid reopening old wounds. But old wounds that have not healed only fester, so the rapprochement with Europe must include an acknowledgement that people are still sore. More importantly, in pursuing that rapprochement we must try to take Leave voters with us – whether they wish they had voted differently or not, they must feel respected, not feel they have lost face.

The half-reason is the fear that going back into the single market will stoke immigration. It’s a valid reason because immigration is high on voters’ concerns, so anything that looks like increasing the number of people entering the UK has the potential to boost support for the populists. But it’s only half a reason because immigration has gone up since we left the EU, not down.

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Calum Miller: Trump’s proposal for Gaza “bizarre” and “dangerous”

I’m sure many of us will be watching the television in absolute horror this morning. It is absolutely nauseating to watch Donald Trump talk about the ethnic cleansing of a people as if it is a normal thing to do. We should not tolerate it and we need to all it out for what it is.

Three Lib Dem MPs have spoken out this morning.

Lib Dem Foreign Affairs spokesperson Calum Miller has emphatically condemned Trump’s plan, calling it “bizarre” and ‘dangerous”.

He said:

Donald Trump’s proposal for Gaza is bizarre but also dangerous. It shows casual disregard for the rights and aspirations of Palestinians and threatens the basis for peace at this fragile moment.

The UK cannot be silent – we must make clear that this proposal is damaging, wrong and would amount to a severe breach of international law.

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Seanad Éireann: Lessons from Ireland on Lords reform

This week sees elections to Seanad Éireann, the Irish Senate, following elections to Dáil Éireann, the more powerful lower house of the Oireachtas or parliament. Unlike other elected upper houses, and indeed its predecessor, the Seanad in the Irish Free State, it is elected completely in tandem with the lower house, and in its entirety, so when the Dáil is dissolved, so too is the Seanad. 

Senators are a mix of indirectly elected and nominated members, 43 chosen by TDs (Teachtaí Dála or Dáil Deputies), local councillors and outgoing Senators, to represent five vocational panels, Administrative, Agricultural, Cultural and Educational, Industrial and Commercial, and Labour, having been nominated by organisations registered for that purpose, while 6 are elected from university constituencies, graduates of the National University of Ireland and Dublin University (Trinity College Dublin) electing 3 each and 11 nominated by the Taoiseach, or prime minister. 

The vocational panel system was devised by Éamon De Valera, the architect of the 1937 Constitution, and inspired by Catholic teaching.  On paper, it sounds quite attractive as a model for a reformed House of Lords (or Senate) in the UK, drawing upon various sources of professional expertise, but in practice, election to the Seanad has often been used as a consolation prize for those who have lost a seat in the Dáil, before trying to get back into it, or those unable to get elected to it first time around,  making the Seanad more of an ante chamber than an upper chamber. 

On a side note, the party De Valera founded, Fianna Fáil, is now the sister party of the Liberal Democrats in Liberal International, despite the former historically having been socially more conservative, though De Valera got on well enough with Lloyd George, the pair able to compare their respective Celtic languages; in Irish, ‘seanad’ means ‘senate’ in the sense of ‘second chamber’, but in Welsh, ‘senedd’ means ‘parliament’, preserving the original general Latin meaning of ‘senatus’.    

Across the border, the Senate in the old Northern Ireland Parliament was elected by its House of Commons, with many members holding hereditary peerages or later acquiring them, but was even weaker than its counterpart at Leinster House, and all devolved legislatures at Stormont have been unicameral since. As for the House of Commons there, while it was initially elected by the single transferable vote, Unionists later scrapped this, gerrymandering constituencies, and only abolishing  the Queen’s University Belfast constituency and property vote in 1969, 19 years after Westminster.

Talking of university constituencies, this Seanad election is significant as it will be the last one in which Senators will be elected from them; at the next election, there will be a new six-member Higher Education constituency, for which any Irish citizen with a tertiary education qualification will be eligible to vote or stand, if not less elitist, then at least less of an anachronism. 

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Has America lost Pakistan?

The relationship between the United States and Pakistan has undergone significant shifts over the decades, from being close allies during the Cold War to the current state of growing estrangement. The US’s recent sanctions on Pakistan’s ballistic missile programme highlight this growing divide. These sanctions reflect not only immediate concerns about nuclear proliferation but also broader challenges in the US-Pakistan relationship, shaped by history, strategic divergences, and emerging global alliances. Yet, losing Pakistan as an ally could have serious strategic implications, especially given the strength and professionalism of the Pakistan Army compared to other militaries in the Muslim world.

For much of the 20th century, Pakistan was a key ally of the United States. During the Cold War, Pakistan’s alignment with the US was solidified through its participation in SEATO and CENTO, military alliances aimed at containing Soviet influence in Asia and the Middle East. This relationship deepened during the Afghan-Soviet War in the 1980s when Pakistan, under General Zia-ul-Haq, became a frontline state in resisting Soviet expansionism. Billions of dollars in military and economic aid flowed from the US to Pakistan, funding Mujahideen fighters and solidifying Pakistan’s role as a critical partner. However, the fallout from this era, including the rise of radical militancy and instability, began to test the alliance.

The 1990s marked the first major divergence. Pakistan’s covert nuclear weapons programme, led by Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan, became a source of contention. The US imposed sanctions under the Pressler Amendment, cutting off military and economic aid. While strategic priorities during the Afghan War had overshadowed concerns about Pakistan’s nuclear ambitions, the end of the Cold War left little reason for the US to overlook these issues. Pakistan’s nuclear tests in 1998 further isolated it, as the US strongly opposed proliferation in South Asia.

Post-9/11, the US-Pakistan partnership was revived temporarily. Pakistan became a crucial ally in the War on Terror, allowing US forces access to its airspace and providing intelligence to target Al-Qaeda and Taliban operatives. Yet, this renewed alliance was fraught with mistrust. The US accused Pakistan’s military and intelligence agency, the ISI, of maintaining ties with Taliban factions while publicly supporting the American-led war. Drone strikes in Pakistan’s tribal areas, though targeting militants, caused widespread civilian casualties and fuelled anti-American sentiment.

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The Timorese in Taunton: an unexpected migrant community

12 November in Timor Leste or East Timor, is National Youth Day, which commemorates the massacre of dozens of young pro-independence activists by Indonesian troops in the Santa Cruz cemetery in Dili in 1991. Like Sharpeville in South Africa in 1960, during the struggle against apartheid, Santa Cruz was a pivotal event in highlighting atrocities in the former Portuguese colony, which Indonesia had invaded and occupied in 1975, declaring it the Republic’s 27th province.

Back then, I was in correspondence with Lord Avebury, previously the Liberal MP Eric Lubbock, a supporter of East Timor’s right to self-determination, in the years when it seemed a lost cause. Yet by 1999, things in Jakarta had changed, with it agreeing to a UN supervised referendum, in which 78 per cent voted for independence, though the backlash from Indonesian-backed militias saw most of the infrastructure destroyed. This led to the deployment of the Australian-led InterFET peacekeeping force, to which the UK contributed the HMS Glasgow and the Gurkha regiment in Brunei.

Many of the young activists I met living in exile in the UK and Ireland would return home after independence in 2002, becoming parliamentarians, ministers, diplomats or civil servants, with others joining NGOs. However, there was a flow of people out of the country, for economic reasons, just as there were in the Philippines, and even Indonesia; unlike citizens of those countries, however, the East Timorese had the advantage of being entitled to Portuguese, and hence EU, citizenship, which at the time, enabled them to live and work in the UK without needing work permits.

As a result, East Timorese migrant communities sprung up in towns around the UK, like Oxford, Peterborough and Crewe, as well as Dungannon in Northern Ireland, which I visited in 2006, nicknaming it ‘New Dili’. While the Republic was far more supportive of their homeland’s struggle for independence than the UK, as a small nation itself, it was Northern Ireland, or rather the Moy Park chicken factory in Dungannon, which proved a far greater pull than Dublin.

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Are we ready for US election chaos, or for President Trump?

Liberal Democrats will be hoping that the nightmare of the US presidential campaign will be over on November 5th, with a clear win for Kamala Harris, accepted by Donald Trump, leading Republicans and state and federal courts.  But at present that looks the least likely outcome.  More likely by far will be either a contested result, after chaotic events during the voting and state counts, or a narrow Trump victory with chaotic consequences for US politics and foreign policy.  Either will have major implications for British politics and foreign policy.

The continuing rumble of opinion polls suggests a virtual tie between Harris and Trump, with the outcome dependent on who turns out among the small minority of undecideds.  Challenges to names on voting registers are under way in several states.  Counting may well be disrupted; there were some assaults on election counts four years ago, and the atmosphere has become more fraught since then.  Republican local organisations are ready to use the courts to challenge any contestable declaration or hint of malpractice.  We may not be sure who has won for some time.  And the consequences of a Trump win are as uncertain as the candidate’s utterances have become.  So how should we react to what will be an assault on the principles of liberal democracy and on the transatlantic partnership which has been at the core of the UK’s position in the world since 1941?   

One Liberal Democratic theme, I suggest, must be to remind disillusioned citizens in this country of the importance of constitutional institutions and limited government, and the dangers of sliding down the road towards populist rule.  Britain has just emerged from several years of chaotic government, with a populist prime minister attempting to prevent Parliament from returning from a recess when he had been in office himself for only s few months.  We have witnessed right-wing attacks on our supreme court, an Elections Act that lifted constraints on political donations and restricted the autonomy of the Electoral Commission, and Conservative ministers supporting conspiracy theories about ‘liberal elites’.  We now have a Labour government which has won the most disproportional parliamentary majority since 1832: 63.4% of MPs from 33.7% of the votes cast, on a worryingly low turnout of 58%.  Public trust in ‘Westminster politics’ has sunk to the lowest recorded point since opinion surveys began.  The potential for an anti-democratic backlash, if this government fails to improve both economic growth and public services, is high.

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Ed Davey on 7th October one year on: “We must stand with the Jewish community against hate and violence”

Commenting on the one year anniversary of the 7th October terrorist attacks by Hamas in Israel, Liberal Democrat Leader Ed Davey said:

As we remember the terror and pain of October 7th, we must all come together and stand in solidarity against hate and violence. One year ago, we awoke to those horrifying scenes in Israel of Hamas’s brutal terrorist atrocities.

When I visited Israel and Palestine a few months ago, I saw for myself the destruction and devastation at the Kfar Aza kibbutz and the festival site in Re’im. I met Itzik, a father waiting for news of his

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ALDE Congress in Estoril: A Rallying Call for Liberal Values and International Cooperation

I don’t know how many ALDE Congresses I have visited over the last few years, but the one in Estoril, Portugal, was similar to most of them. The 500+ delegates, including around 20 from the LibDems, provides a platform to discuss global challenges, affirm our commitment to mutual liberal values, and outline strategies for the future.

The first day was dominated by the elections to the ALDE Bureau, with the election of a new President and six new Vice Presidents. German MEP Svenja Hahn was the only candidate for the Presidency. She’s known to many Liberal Democrats as a former President of the youth movement, LYMEC, and spoke to the delegates of her love for the UK having spent some time working in St. Albans. Our own Sal Brinton was one of the candidates for the Vice Presidency. The results will be declared tomorrow morning.

The main Congress kicked off with speeches from current ALDE Presidents Timmy Dooley from Ireland and Ilhan Kyuchyuk from Bulgaria, who provided a thorough report on the activities of the past year. They talked about the recent elections which returned a much smaller Liberal group in the European Parliament. Unsurprisingly, a further theme of their address was the ongoing war in Ukraine. Their focus was on the crucial support provided by ALDE members to Ukraine in its fight for sovereignty and democracy. The pair underscored the importance of continued aid and diplomatic backing for the Ukrainian people in the face of Russia’s aggression.

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Tom Arms’ World Review – 22 September 2024

What next in the Lebanon?

Destruction of your enemy’s communications is usually a prelude to an all-out attack. But so far Israeli ground troops appear to be focused on Gaza.

Such an attack could provoke a violent response from Hezbollah. But so far they have been relatively restrained. Hezbollah’s 64-year-old leader Hassan Nasrallah said on Thursday that the exploding pagers and walkie talkies was a “severe blow” and that Israel had crossed a “red line.” But he made no explicit threats.

It is thought that the Israeli government is trying to decouple the tit for tat missile attacks on the Israeli-Lebanese border from the Gaza War so that it is not fighting on two fronts.

Hezbollah launched its attacks in support of Hamas on 8 October, the day after the Hamas terrorist attack on Israel. It said the missile attacks would continue until a permanent ceasefire is agreed in Gaza. The resultant tit-for-tat missile exchanges has led to the evacuation of 80,000 Israelis from the north of Israel and 90,000 Lebanese from the south of Lebanon.

Decoupling would imply that the Israeli government believes that Hezbollah could be persuaded through violence to stop its missile attacks. Based on past performance, the opposite seems more probable.

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Vacancy: Party Representative on the Executive Committee of Liberal International

A vacancy has arisen for the Liberal Democrats representative to the Executive Committee of Liberal International. This Committee meets annually in person and is hosted by a Liberal International member party, so can take place almost anywhere worldwide. The next event will take place on 29th November 2024 in Santiago, Chile. The position is elected by the Federal International Relations Committee and the term will run until the end of 2025.

The post entails engaging fully with the work of Liberal International and working as a member of a team with the FIRC Chair and Liberal Democrat members of the Liberal International Bureau and other Liberal International Committees. This will require a commitment to fund your travel to the relevant meetings, noting that currently the party does not offer any travel expenses for this purpose. Between these meetings much of the work is undertaken online, but ad hoc meetings and events are possible.

The successful candidate should be able to demonstrate:

  • A good basic knowledge of international relations and current global tensions.
  • Familiarity with Liberal International and some knowledge of its member parties around the world.
  • An understanding of the differing priorities of liberal sister parties in the varied social and economic climates of developed and developing countries.
  • Experience of building consensus in an international framework.
  • Alignment with the Liberal Democrat position on key international issues.

Please note that applicants must be members of the Liberal Democrats.

Application Details: To apply for the role please send a CV and covering letter describing your suitability to Mark Valladares at [email protected]

Application deadline: 28th August 2024

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17 July 2024 – today’s press releases

  • Ed Davey on King’s Speech: Liberal Democrats will make the voice of carers heard
  • Child Poverty: Right that Government looks at how to tackle child poverty after economic damage by Conservatives
  • Chamberlain tables WASPI Parliamentary motion
  • London Lib Dems – King’s Speech – Extra Powers for Metro Mayors Welcome, but Need the Financial Powers to Back Them Up
  • Scottish Liberal Democrats respond to King’s Speech
  • Renew Europe: End Orbán’s Council Presidency

Ed Davey on King’s Speech: Liberal Democrats will make the voice of carers heard

Responding to the King’s Speech, Liberal Democrat Leader Ed Davey said:

After years of crisis and chaos under the Conservative Party, it is clear our country faces enormous challenges. The Liberal Democrats will carefully scrutinise the Government’s plans, striving hard to stand up for our constituents.

We will continue campaigning to fix the NHS, boosting GP numbers, tackling delays to cancer treatment and improving access to dentists and pharmacists.

We will make sure the voice of carers is heard, from increasing the Carer’s Allowance to the big challenge of fixing social care – so that our loved ones can get the support they need.

Child Poverty: Right that Government looks at how to tackle child poverty after economic damage by Conservatives

Responding to news that the government has created a ministerial taskforce to tackle child poverty, Liberal Democrat Work and Pensions spokesperson Wendy Chamberlain MP said:

It is right that the government is looking at how best to tackle the scourge of child poverty. Hundreds of thousands of children are trapped in poverty after years of chaos and economic damage by the Conservatives.

Scrapping the two child cap would be the quickest and most cost-effective way to lift children out of poverty and bring long-term benefits to our society and economy. We hope that ministers listen to the evidence and the many charities that their task force will meet and act accordingly.

Chamberlain tables WASPI Parliamentary motion

Wendy Chamberlain, Liberal Democrat Spokesperson for Work and Pensions, has today tabled a Parliamentary motion calling for the new Government to honour the recommendations of the Ombudsman.

The Ombudsman’s report first came out in July 2021 and stated that women born in the 1950s had suffered significant financial loss due to maladministration by the Department of Work and Pensions. The final report was published in May 2024 and recommended 1950s women are owed compensation.

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ALDE Party Council, Vilnius 2024 (part 2) – a masterclass in agenda planning…

* Welcome to the second part of my report of the weekend’s ALDE Party Council. Part 1 can be found here

Having retired relatively early, I was bright-eyed and bushy-tailed for an early start the next morning. In truth, as I’ve noted before, Council is often a bit of a bureaucracy session, offering Council delegates an opportunity to scrutinise the work of the Bureau. I tend to the view that Council isn’t very good at that, unless something upsets them. After all, most Council delegates are there to debate ideas, not assess the value of adding €50,000 to one budget …

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ALDE Party Council, Vilnius 2024 (part 1) – greetings from a galaxy not far away…

Readers, please note that this is not an official report of the Council meeting last weekend, but represents my report back.

One of the things that I observed from my two years as consort to the Party President was that, if you’re chairing a potentially fractious group, especially a political one, it really helps to be able to spot potential disagreements beforehand, allowing you to have those critical conversations prior to the meeting, and to consider how best to manage the debate.

The ALDE Party isn’t entirely like that, as was demonstrated on Saturday morning.

But, having gathered in Lithuania’s charming capital, we did have more than a Council meeting to attend. My weekend started with a session sponsored by the European Liberal Forum, discussing what a liberal narrative for the next five years might look like, including our own Sal Brinton. Sal talked about our current campaign, noting that it had liberal values at its heart, offering concrete proposals to improve our public services and the environment.

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ALDE Party Council preview – consequences, consequences…

There’s always something to distract you during a General Election campaign. And, in my case, that’s the ALDE Party Council meeting that will take place on Saturday in Vilnius, Lithuania’s capital. Yes, we’ll be sending a full delegation, albeit with an element of substitution, including a guest Baroness, but flights have been rearranged to keep absences as short as possible.

The main topic of conversation is going to be the fallout from the European Parliament elections last week, and the impact on Europe’s direction in the coming years. Whilst Renew Europe might not …

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Ukraine; are we absolutely sure we want a wider war?

In war it is good to remember two bits of age-old wisdom, if unnecessary deaths are to be avoided; ‘know your enemy’ and ‘don’t believe your own propaganda’.

Ignoring these two adages led to the West’s humiliating defeat in Afghanistan, and Western-led conflicts in Iraq, Libya, Syria, Saharan Africa and Yemen, which have all been catastrophic for Western interests.

We now have a parallel in Ukraine.

As I wrote in LDV on 11th Feb 2023:

In April Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said ‘We want to see Russia weakened to the degree that it can’t do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine’ and ‘Ukraine clearly believes that it can win, and so does everyone here’. At the end of the previous month the US President called for the removal of President Putin from power.

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Tonight! Join online for the kick-off of the “Renew Europe Now” Platform campaign!

This evening, at 6 p.m., the ALDE Party and other members of the “Renew Europe Now” platform kick-off their European Campaign, and you can watch from the comfort of your own home…

  • Hear from inspiring Liberal leaders from around the EU like Prime Ministers Alexander De Croo, Kaja Kallas, European Commisioners Margrethe Vestager, Věra Jourová, Thierry Breton, Didier Reynders and Kadri Simson and other speakers.
  • Meet the Renew Europe Platform lead candidates from ALDE Party, Renaissance and EDP, and find out their plan for Europe.
  • Discover the next wave of Liberal leaders who will fight against the artisans of European

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We should allow Ukrainian refugees to stay

It has now sadly been over two years since the latest phase of Russia’s war against Ukraine.

I was living in Kyiv back in early 2014 when the conflict began after Russia invaded Crimea and East Ukraine. Since then, the UK has rightly been one of Ukraine’s strongest allies, providing economic, military, political and diplomatic support. This has also very much been a cross-party endeavour, which I strongly welcome.

There is though more that the UK and our allies – particularly the USA – need to do to now ensure that Kyiv has the military means to defeat Moscow.

Refugees

Likewise, there is more …

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US Presidential Election 2024: seconds out, round one…

The long-awaited (albeit nervously) US Presidential campaign gets underway in earnest today, with the Iowa caucuses, the first step in a winnowing process that formally ends in the US Virgin Islands on 8 June. It’s only the Republicans who are taking part this week, as the Iowa Democratic primary takes place on “Super Tuesday”, 5 March. There are 40 delegates up for grabs (out of 2,467 available overall) but it isn’t winner takes all – delegates are allocated according to the share of the vote achieved. So, what are we watching out for?

The opinion polling that has taken place in Iowa has shown Donald Trump polling steadily well ahead, with a strengthening of his position in recent months. FiveThirtyEight suggests that his average poll score is over 50%, with many individual polls showing him doing even better. But Iowa is a socially conservative state with a strong evangelical influence, where Trump lost to Ted Cruz in 2016 – will Iowa Republicans waver in the face of his legal problems? And, if they do, at what percentage does he begin to look vulnerable?

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What’s the future for Israel and Palestine?

It is now more than two months since the Hamas attack in southern Israel, and the bombing and shelling of Palestinians in Gaza continues.  Many of us have marched in support of a cease-fire, but the marches have achieved nothing, so it must be time for a rethink.

The horrific, murderous the attack on October 7 had its roots in Palestinian resentment, and arguably the seeds were planted by British Foreign Secretary Arthur Balfour’s decision during the First World War to donate part of a foreign country we didn’t own to a people who’d suffered abuse and discrimination in Europe for hundreds of years and wanted somewhere to go that wasn’t Europe.  

Others say the current conflict in Gaza is simply the consequence of Hamas behaving “like animals” on October 7.  There are proximal causes and more deep-seated ones, some of which go back a very long way – for some Jewish fundamentalists the claim to ownership of Judea and Samaria goes back thousands of years.   Many other more recent factors are involved, like the funding of Hamas by Qatar (among other countries) and the funding of Israel by the US, which have made the Palestinians pawns in a game driven by the geopolitical ambitions of others.     

What is being lost in the debate over which part of history is most important is the fate of the Palestinian people in Gaza, and increasingly in the West Bank, with bombs falling, bullets flying, and starvation and disease now gaining hold.  Since October 7, more than 20,000 people have been killed, upward of 50,000 injured, and hostages are being held.  Around two million people in Gaza are living in a devastated waste land, short of water, food, electricity, shelter, medical aid, and hope that the world will do anything to alleviate their suffering. 

If the world community is going to move on from simply grandstanding, the obvious first requirement is an end to the fighting.  Calling for Israel to stop hasn’t worked, but if we think that only Israel has the power to end the war we are missing an important point.  Israel has said it won’t stop until Hamas is defeated or surrenders, so the sooner Hamas lays down its arms the better.

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Israel-Gaza conflict: Liberal Democrats call for immediate bilateral ceasefire

Leader of the Liberal Democrats Ed Davey and Lib Dem Foreign Affairs spokesperson Layla Moran MP have today called for an immediate bilateral ceasefire in the Israel-Gaza conflict.

The purpose of such a ceasefire, which must apply to both Israel and Hamas, would be to get aid in, get the hostages out, and provide space to realise a political solution, ultimately with two states and a lasting peace.

Ed Davey has set out this proposal in full here.

Liberal Democrat Foreign Affairs spokesperson Layla Moran MP commented:

A lasting peace and a two-state solution is the only way to guarantee

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The Gaza War – what should or could happen next

Layla Moran in her webinar to over 1,000 Party members last Thursday gave us much to think about. Layla reminded us that what often distinguishes us as Liberal Democrats is our strong sense of empathy and humanity, which naturally leads to a respect for human rights and international law. It is difficult not to be traumatised by the horrors we are witnessing on our screens day after day and feel heartfelt sympathy for the victims themselves, their surviving friends and family, and especially those who are here in the UK, worrying about their family members being held hostage by Hamas, …

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ALDE Party Council – give ‘em the old razzle dazzle…

Escaping Storm Babet, albeit not by much, Thursday saw me heading to the Paris of the East, and capital of Romania, Bucharest. After the various travelling calamities that befell the delegation to Stockholm in June, I wasn’t taking any chances on arriving on the day of the meeting, and reached my destination to find the sun shining and the temperature pleasantly warm. Perhaps it was a good omen…

In truth, the most controversial item on the agenda was always going to be the urgency resolution on the situation in Israel and Palestine, given that European liberals have quite divergent views on who is to blame and what should be done. However, our delegation leader, and Chair of Federal International Relations Committee, David Chalmers, had decided that the best way forward was to draft something which might attract majority support in advance and, after some discussion amongst our delegation, with valued input from our Parliamentary Foreign Affairs team, we had been able to circulate something to our sister parties that, I thought, had a real chance of success.

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Sushi protests show Hong Kong’s spirit is unabated – but it’s not enough!

Recently, there has been a sudden surge in the popularity of sushi and sashimi in Hong Kong. Long queues can be seen outside sushi restaurants, and the sashimi and sushi in supermarkets are quickly sold out every day. This is happening after the Hong Kong government announced a ban on imports of Japanese seafood. The Japanese Consulate in Hong Kong has expressed its gratitude on social media to the Hong Kong people for their “rational consumption.” In present-day Hong Kong, under the implementation of the national security law, citizens have found a way to express their lack of trust in the government through collective consumer action.

At the beginning of this year, the Hong Kong government lifted all the restrictions that were imposed due to the pandemic. As a result, some groups applied to the police for permission to hold protests. On International Women’s Day and Labor Day, they planned to organize events with only a few hundred participants. However, the police put pressure on the organizing groups, claiming that there were many threatening comments on their social media platforms, suggesting the intention to use violence against the police during the events. This eventually forced the groups to cancel their planned activities. Subsequently, media outlets published investigative reports revealing that all those threatening comments originated from pro-government internet users or fake accounts.

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Tom Arms’ World Review

Mutineer Yevgeny Prigozhin – and the nine other passengers on his private plane — this week joined a long and growing list of “Putin’s Bodies.” Those on the grisly register share one common fatal flaw: They dared to cross the Russian president.

The tally starts with 1,300 innocent victims. It was 1999. Putin was yet to become president. But as prime minister and head of the FSB he needed a false flag operation to win support for his war in Chechnya. It is alleged, therefore, that he bombed a Moscow apartment building and blamed it on Chechen terrorists. Three hundred died and 1,000 were injured. Putin got his war.

Politician Sergei Yashenkov made the mistake of uncovering evidence linking Putin to the bombing. He was shot in the chest in 2003. Former KGB agent Alexander Litvinenko also accused Putin of the apartment block bombing. He was poisoned in London in 2006 with polonium-laced tea.

Journalists are a favourite target of the Russian president. Paul Klebnikov, chief editor of the Russian edition of Forbes, was busy writing a series on Kremlin corruption when he was killed in a drive-by shooting in 2004. Anna Polikovskaya accused Putin of turning Russia into a police state. She was shot in the lift of her apartment building in 2006. Natalia Estemirova specialised in exposing human rights abuses. She was abducted outside her home and later found in a wood with a bullet in the head.

Human rights lawyer Stanislaw Markelov was walking down the street with his friend Anastasia Buburova when they were both gunned down in 2009.

Russian media mogul Mikhail Lesin was in Washington and on the verge of cutting a deal with the FBI on corruption charges. He was found beaten to death in his hotel room in 2015.

Boris Berezovsky fled Russia for exile in Britain after daring to challenge Putin. He was found dead in his Berkshire home. The inquest returned an open verdict. Boris Nemtsov accused Putin of being in the pay of corrupt oligarchs. He was shot in the back on a Moscow street in 2015.

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Observations of an Expat: The Almighty Dollar

The Almighty Dollar is a bit too mighty for a growing number of countries. They want to curb it.

That was one of the driving forces behind this week’s 5-nation BRICS meeting in Johannesburg and the reason why another 40 want to join the latest political/economic organisation. Six of the applicants were admitted to the club this week.

BRICS is the acronym for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa—the current membership of the 14-year-old organisation. It controls 26 percent of the world’s GDP as opposed to the G7’s 30.7 percent, although the G7 is dropping and will drop further faster with BRICS expansion.

For BRICS you could easily substitute China which dominates the BRICS economies. And for G7 just say America. Which means the two economic groupings have become political/economic weapons in the Sino-American clash.

BRICS has thus become a diplomatic vehicle for the Chinese attempt to constrain the dollar as the world’s reserve currency or replace it altogether.

It has its work cut out for it. The dollar is indeed almighty. Eighty-seven percent of the world’s trade is conducted in dollars. The currencies of 65 countries are pegged to the value of the dollar and the American greenback is the official currency of five US territories and 11 foreign countries.

Being the world’s reserve currency bestows advantages on the US economy and the government that controls it. Chief among them is lower borrowing costs on the international market, which allows America to carry a bigger public spending debt then other countries.

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ALDE Party Congress 2023 – the local government cut

In addition to all the MEPs, Prime Ministers and Grandees there were also quite a few local Councillors like me in attendance.

The Committee of Regions continued to focus on Local Government issues by mounting a couple of specific interest Fringe sessions.

One regular event is entitled the Liberal Mayors Summit, and despite the poor attendance of Mayors and Group Leaders from the UK ,even when we were in the EU, I’ve fortunately managed to sneak in on a couple of occasions. There were about 20 attending this year, from metropolitan areas across the EU, with representation from well-known cities like Warsaw, Stockholm, St Omer, Bucharest, Split, Budapest, Vienna and smaller less well-known ones from across the EU states. It was good to realise that the Liberal influence is present in so many local authority areas.

The main guest was the very popular Margrethe Vestager, Executive Vice President of the European Commission who had delivered a speech about plans to regulate IA.

The agenda included issues about SMEs, and combatting gender-based violence but the item which generated most contributions and took up the majority of time was about The European Year of Skills. Every attendee around the table had prepared a contribution on this subject and I found there was such resonance with issues our own towns and cities are experiencing, I thought it would be of interest to our colleagues here in the UK.

As the discussion went round the table, we heard from every representative about problems that their authority faced in planning for the future. These were an ageing population, a lack of well qualified staff and skilled personnel to fill vacancies, while experiencing an incoming surfeit of unskilled migrants. An interesting example was given of an authority above the Arctic Circle in the North of Finland, which had recognised that it needed to bring in new people if its business and activities were to thrive.

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Reporting back on the ALDE conference in Stockholm

The ALDE Party Congress in Stockholm 26-28 May 2023

Merlene Emerson, one of the 10 LibDem Council delegates to ALDE Party reporting back

Who?
ALDE Party (Alliance of Liberals and Democrats in Europe) is an umbrella membership party of liberal leaning and social democratic parties in Europe. There are currently 77 members across 44 countries in Europe, both in EU as well as non-EU countries. Sadly, the LibDems have now fallen into the 2nd category but it remains a lifeline that keeps us connected with others in the liberal and democratic family in Europe.

What?
So what was the recent Congress all about and how do I encapsulate in a short blog the spirit and substance of the annual gathering? There were Policy resolutions passed (ranging from Restoration of a pro-active Trade Policy, to supporting Introduction of Civil Partnerships in Ukraine), election of new Bureau members and important amendments to internal regulations, but it was the first session, a fireside chat with Vice-President Margrethe Vestager and Commissioner Vera Jourova that I found hugely inspiring.

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ALDE Party Congress 2023: the expectations of your newest Council delegate

There are many ways I could support the Liberal Democrats and liberal values. As a Londoner, I could support our GLA team: one of the reasons I joined the Party was to oppose the Silvertown Tunnel. As a Young Liberal, I could join a group that gained councillors in 25 councils (and counting) – with 2 of those wins defeating incumbent Conservative Council leaders – in the local elections (which as Liberal Democrats, we should be mentioning at every possible opportunity…) and that created the app at Spring Conference in York. As an economist (or at least, an economist in-training), I could support the party’s policy team in designing an economic manifesto that deals with the manifold crises we face at the moment. So why, with all these options, have I looked to working on the international front as a place I can bring value to the Party.

Well to work this out, it’s important to look at how we work with our overseas partners. In Europe, we work under the umbrella of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe Party (or ALDE Party), a group that brings together Liberals in Europe and includes 73 Member parties with representation in the EU institutions and beyond. Together, we build bridges, pass policy and try not to spiral into a discussion on electoral reform. One success story that came from our cooperation was announced last month by our FIRC Chair David Chalmers (and leader of the ALDE delegation) announcing the Lib Dem EU Liaison Councillor Scheme. In the upcoming Congress at Stockholm, I hope to do more and make sure the Liberal democrats are in a strong position to continue this cooperation.

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