As I write this, Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky, is preparing to sit down in the Oval Office with President Donald Trump.
The Ukrainian leader had high hopes for this meeting. Trump had broadly hinted that he was prepared to give Ukraine Tomahawk missiles. These weapons can be launched from air, land or sea and have a range of 1,500 miles and carry an enormous payload.
That means that Ukraine could launch the missiles from anywhere inside Ukraine or on the Black Sea and easily hit targets in Moscow and beyond. Up to now the West has been reluctant to provide Ukraine with long-range weaponry for fear that it would escalate the conflict. These missiles are a game changer.
Then, while Zelensky, was in mid-flight, Trump and Vladimir Putin had another marathon telephone session—two and a half hours.
Putin held out the golden carrot of “colossal” trade projects for America once the Ukraine War ended and sanctions were lifted.
Nothing tempts Trump more than money. Putin stressed that money came with peace and that he had control over when that peace came—not Zelensky.
So, Trump agreed to hold another meeting Putin; sometime in the next fortnight in Hungary. It is likely, but not certain, that the Tomahawks to Ukraine deal will go on ice or out the window altogether.
In the meantime, Putin is increasing the military pressure on Ukraine. On Thursday night there were dozens of Russian missile attacks and 300 drone attacks on Ukrainian targets. They mainly hit gas and electricity infrastructure as Ukrainians prepare for another hard, cold winter.
These attacks—and a wavering Trump—seem to be Putin’s main cards. The frontline is at stalemate and the Russian economy is struggling from sanctions and Ukrainian attacks on oil depots.
Britain’s collapsed Chinese spy case has brought into focus the structure and nature of Chinese intelligence.
Basically, when we talk about the Chinese intelligence service we are talking about the Ministry of State Security, aka MSS. Although, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is responsible for military intelligence.
The MSS is huge. One unofficial estimate puts the number of employees at 100,000. One former diplomat pointed that is only the ones on the payroll, “the rest of the population are unpaid interns.”