Tag Archives: gaza

Tom Arms

Observations of an Expat: Death of the Two-State Solution

By Tom Arms | Sat 8th February 2025 - 9:51 am

The two-state solution is dead. Or, at the very least, it has been reduced to the one and a half state solution. But then the other Palestinian half is likely to be killed off in the next few weeks.

The concept of a Jewish and Palestinian state living side by side cannot work without American backing. No other state has the international clout or sufficient leverage over Israel.

The Palestinian state was envisaged as existing in two distinct halves—the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. Donald Trump’s proposal that the US take control of Gaza, move out all the Palestinians, bulldoze it and turn Gaza into the “Riviera of the Middle East” means that the US has in one press conference eliminated the Gazan half from the political equation.

The other half is expected to soon follow suit. Trump has promised a statement on the West Bank “in a matter of weeks.” In his first term he declared Israeli settlement was no longer—in his opinion—a breach of international law. He also recognised Jerusalem—which is part of the West Bank—as the capital of Israel. In his second term he quickly lifted Biden-imposed sanctions on violent Israeli West Bank settlers.

It is extremely likely that he will announce approval of Benjamin Netanyahu’s long-held wish to annex the West Bank. That means an estimated 5 million Palestinians would be forced out of their homes. Where do they go?

“They should go to new homes,” said President Trump. “Someplace where they live and not die.” Specifically, the president has suggested Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon and possibly Saudi Arabia. They have all responded with an emphatic: “No way!!!”

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Caron Lindsay

Calum Miller: Trump’s proposal for Gaza “bizarre” and “dangerous”

By Caron Lindsay | Wed 5th February 2025 - 9:00 am

I’m sure many of us will be watching the television in absolute horror this morning. It is absolutely nauseating to watch Donald Trump talk about the ethnic cleansing of a people as if it is a normal thing to do. We should not tolerate it and we need to all it out for what it is.

Three Lib Dem MPs have spoken out this morning.

Lib Dem Foreign Affairs spokesperson Calum Miller has emphatically condemned Trump’s plan, calling it “bizarre” and ‘dangerous”.

He said:

Donald Trump’s proposal for Gaza is bizarre but also dangerous. It shows casual disregard for the rights and aspirations of Palestinians and threatens the basis for peace at this fragile moment.

The UK cannot be silent – we must make clear that this proposal is damaging, wrong and would amount to a severe breach of international law.

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Tom Arms

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 2nd February 2025 - 10:43 am

United States

Lost in the blizzard of President Trump’s presidential decrees was the throwaway line that he plans to build an Israeli-style “iron dome” over the United States.

There are problems with such an ambition. For a start, the United States is 50 times bigger than Israel. Next problem is that Israel’s iron dome protects against drones, artillery attacks and short to intermediate-range missiles. Any American system would have to add long-range hypersonic intercontinental ballistic missiles to that list.

Next is the cost. Israel’s iron dome is estimated to cost $4-5 billion a year. Using the same technology, an American iron dome would cost about $120 billion. At the moment America’s entire missile defense budget is $29 billion and the total defense budget for 2025 is projected to be $852.3 billion.

The above figures are for a ground and sea-based iron dome. One of Trump’s greatest first-term boasts was the creation of the US Space Force (USSF). The force is 8,400-strong and under the command of General John Raymond. It would seem likely that Trump would want his USSF to at least contribute to the proposed iron dome.

This would involve basing satellites in space which would be armed with laser guns and kinetic missiles. There would also have to be a huge fleet of satellites based over enemy territory to spot missile launches. The advantage of a space-based system would be that the missiles could be intercepted before they reach US territory.

The disadvantages are that it would likely be construed as a breach of the 1967 UN treaty on Outer Space which prohibits the basing or use of nuclear weapons or weapons of mass destruction in space. There is also the problem of the price tag—an estimated $1 trillion.

But a space-based system cannot do the job alone. Some missiles will inevitably sneak past the laser guns. For protection against them there will need to be a complementary ground-based system as well.

Gaza

Trump is nothing if not stubborn. You could also say obstinate, inflexible, mulish, or, if you want to be kind, persistent.

His suggestion that the Gazan Palestinians be relocated in brand new homes somewhere in Jordan and/or Egypt is the latest manifestation of the first administration’s “Peace to Prosperity” programme which was negotiated by Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner.

Kushner’s January 2020 plan did not explicitly call for the resettlement of Palestinians. But it hinted that the US would provide financial incentives for them to move– $50 billion over ten years. But where? Kushner privately proposed Jordan, Egypt and Lebanon. But before publishing those thoughts he contacted the leaders of those countries and was told: “No way!!!”

Resettlement of Palestinian refugees is not a new idea. It is, literally, as old as the founding of the modern state of Israel. David Ben-Gurion proposed it almost as soon as the Israeli flag was first raised. Others who have resurrected it periodically over the past 76 years include: John Foster Dulles, John Bolton, Ariel Sharon, Leader of Lebanon’s Phalange Party Bashir Gemayel, Menahem Begin, Benjamin Netanyahu, all of Israeli’s far-right religious leaders and even an Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Said.

Each time the suggestion has been raised it has been knocked down by the Palestinians and the wider Arab world. For them it has always been a non-starter

Jordan has historically been touted as the most likely home for resettled Palestinians. This is because the British Mandate included the present-day Jordan and Israel. After the 1948 war a number of Palestinian refugees fled to Jordan and were granted Jordanian citizenship. Currently about 50-70 percent of Jordan’s citizens are classified as Palestinian. But problems arose in the late 1960’s when the PLO used Jordan as its main base for guerrilla attacks on Israel. The Israelis responded in kind.

The result was that in 190-71, Jordan’s King Hussein expelled the PLO in what became known as “Black September.” Palestinians are welcome in Jordan, but not those that would antagonise Israel as many who are currently in Gaza and the West Bank might do.

As for those in Gaza and the West Bank, their views were forcefully expressed, by displaced Gazan Abu Yahya Rashid. “We are the ones who decide our fate and what we want,” he said. “This land is ours and the property of our ancestors throughout history. We will not leave it accept as corpses.”

Palestinians and Gazans are holding out for the two-state solution. Once again, Trump is consistent—this time in his opposition to what every other western country supports.  The 2020 Peace to Prosperity plan proposed only a fragmented Palestinian state with limited sovereignty. The Palestinians rejected it. Mike Huckabee, Trump’s newly-appointed evangelical ambassador to Israel, has taken a step further than Kushner. “There will never,” he insisted, “be a Palestinian state.”

United States air crash

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Tom Arms

Observations of an Expat: Gaza Ceasefire

By Tom Arms | Sat 18th January 2025 - 9:34 am

They were celebrating in Gaza City when the ceasefire was announced on Wednesday. Men, women and children ran into the streets to shout, cry and pray.

Then the Israeli bombs started to fall again. 110 more Palestinians died. Shortly afterwards it was announced that a last-minute hiccup had delayed Israeli cabinet approval. Will the ceasefire hold?

The deal is the result of constant 24/7 negotiations brokered by Egypt, Qatar and the US. The bones of the agreement were announced by Biden in May. Benjamin Netanyahu, however, rejected it at the time.

Donald Trump and Joe Biden can both take a share of the credit. Biden for negotiating the deal and winning UN backing. Trump for saying he would back what Biden parleyed. It was a rare moment of cross-party foreign policy-making and undercut Netanyahu’s hopes of a better agreement from Donald Trump.

The ceasefire itself is in three clear phases. Phase one is due to start on Sunday and last six weeks. It involves the partial withdrawal of Israeli forces; an increased flow of humanitarian aid and the release of some Palestinian prisoners.

Phase two—also six weeks long—calls for the complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza. The return of all remaining live hostages and the release of more Palestinian prisoners and “the return to a sustainable calm.”

Phase three is the start of the reconstruction of Gaza. The return of the bodies of an estimated 32 dead hostages and the release of more Palestinian prisoners. The US, Egypt and Qatar are all committed to ensuring that both sides comply and that the ceasefire goes well beyond the first few months and becomes the basis of further agreements.

But there are a host of hurdles at which ceasefire could fall. Possibly the biggest is opposition from the Religious Zionist Party led by Finance Minister Ben Smotrich. He has said he would vote against the ceasefire unless there is a clear commitment to resume fighting once all the hostages are released. He said: “Our continued presence in the government depends on the absolute certainty of resuming the war with full force.”

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Sam Ammar

From Labour Council Chair to proud Lib Dem: How Labour forced me out

By Sam Ammar | Mon 13th January 2025 - 12:48 pm

Three hours before the deadline for General Election nominations on June 7th, 2024, I resigned as a Labour councillor and as Chair of the Bromsgrove Labour Party. I stood as an independent parliamentary candidate, secured 1561 votes, while Labour lost by 3016 votes to the Conservatives. I have since joined the Lib Dems as I explain below, and we are now the main opposition on Bromsgrove District Council.

Why did I leave the Labour Party and stand against its official candidate?  I had poured my heart and soul into leading the Labour Party in Bromsgrove, transforming it from a gathering that struggled to reach quorum (with fewer than five attendees in 2021) to a team of eight dedicated councillors within three years. Throughout my tenure as a councillor, I earned the respect and trust of all political parties in Bromsgrove, culminating in a unanimous vote to chair the council for a second term in May 2024, just before the General Election was called.

The decision to resign from Labour weighed on me heavily, but the Party had behaved in a very undemocratic way, and after deep reflection, I knew I had to leave.  The local party had been trying to appoint me as its candidate for some time and had been pressing the National Executive Committee (NEC) for action. But on 24 May, it received an email from HQ announcing that Neena Gill, a former MEP, was to be the candidate. I received a phone call the following day from a member of the NEC from which I gathered that I had failed the “due diligence test”. When I pressed for the report, they told me it might be shared after the elections, but not before. I saw this as an affront to the democratic process that denied me the opportunity to understand the basis of their rejection. I submitted a data access request after the General Election, but I was not allowed to see it. 

During my time as a councillor, I had focussed very much on local issues but, following Israel’s war on Gaza, I started to post and write about Palestine, including the ICJ ruling, and my father’s harrowing story of ethnic cleansing in Jerusalem in the Nakba of 1948. It became clear to me in the days after the nomination fiasco that this is what had upset people in the higher echelons of Labour who are/were keen to suppress pro-Palestinian voices and who were probably uncomfortable to discover that my father was Palestinian. 

Initially, local councillors tried to persuade Gill to step aside and called on the Party to reconsider its decision.  But then, twenty-four hours before my resignation, all councillors but two were photographed championing the parachuted candidate.

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David McDowall

Amnesty International’s report on Israel genocide

By David McDowall | Thu 5th December 2024 - 7:32 pm

Amnesty International’s 293 page report, ‘You feel like you are subhuman’ (5 December) stands as the first devastating indictment of Israel’s genocide of the people of Gaza since last January, when the International Court of Justice deemed genocide ‘plausible’ and applied legally binding orders concerning Israel’s conduct (which were ignored). Page by agonising page, Amnesty chronicles the disproportionate actions and language of Israeli leaders, soldiers and others that, in its view, clearly demonstrate intent to destroy Gaza and its people.

Two years ago, Amnesty published its report, ‘Israel’s Apartheid Against Palestinians’, another forensically detailed analysis of Israel as occupying power. Between the two reports stand first, the ICJ’s preliminary hearing of South Africa’s charge of genocide against Israel (referred to above), and secondly, its Advisory Opinion on ‘The Legal Consequences arising from the Policies and Practices of Israel in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem’, of 19 July 2024.

It is in the light of Amnesty’s report that the words parroted by senior politicians of the three principal political parties that ‘Israel has a right to defend itself’ sound so hollow, particularly since it is difficult to think of a single occasion when any senior British politician (pace Corbyn) over the past 57 years of illegal and repressive occupation, has stated that the Palestinians have a right to defend themselves. We should admit our shame and that our conceit that ‘Brits love the underdog’ is a sham. For 57 years the UK (like almost everyone else) has ducked its legal obligation under Common Article 1 of the 1949 Geneva Conventions ‘to respect and ensure respect for the present Convention in all circumstances’, meaning when you see another Party to the Convention violating it, you have a clear obligation to do what you can to bring it back into compliance.

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Andy Daer

There are ways to achieve peace in the Middle East

By Andy Daer | Thu 7th November 2024 - 9:33 am

Many Israelis think they face ‘annihilation’ by Iran and their proxies, and that this means their wars in Gaza and Lebanon fall outside the boundaries set by the international rules of war.  The fear of annihilation didn’t come out of nowhere, but although there has been some fiery rhetoric about Israel’s right to exist over the years, Iran doesn’t seriously believe it could destroy Israel, especially given that it’s backed by the US.  The ‘existential’ distress Israelis feel is more likely an expression of the deep insecurity affecting many Jews around the world, and it originates not from their treatment by Arabs or Iranians, but from centuries of racial abuse and persecution in Europe.  Understanding and accepting this as the underlying cause of the unrestrained assaults on Gaza and Lebanon ought to be fundamental to the peace process.

As things stand, Israel’s Prime Minister won’t listen to calls for restraint, even from the UN or international courts, not because he is mad, or is fighting to stave off corruption charges, or is bent on destroying hopes for a two-state solution, but because he knows that many Israelis think they are in fight for their survival, which on their view means all the normal rules go out of the window.

The fear of annihilation touches a deep place in the human psyche.  When psychoanalysts discuss the war in Gaza they speak of paranoia brought on by Israelis never being allowed to forget the Holocaust, and how that can make them seek refuge in feelings of omnipotence.  The feeling of omnipotence is a delusional state of mind, but it must have been a very seductive delusion to fall back on after the  horrific Hamas attack on October 7 last year.

Most outside observers judge the Israeli response to the threat from Hamas as having been wildly disproportionate, and think it has strayed far beyond its initial purpose – retaliation (or perhaps revenge) for the killing of so many Israeli civilians.  To most of us it’s clear that Netanyahu could end the war in Gaza and Lebanon and get the remaining hostages back simply by giving up on the idea of an enlarged ‘Greater Israel’ and conceding that the Palestinians have a right to their homeland in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, and Gaza.  Hamas, the Houthis, and Hezbollah have all said as much – that they would stop attacking Israel if it agreed to end the Occupation.  Jordan’s envoy to the UN has gone further and said the Arab states of the Middle East would guarantee Israel’s security if it ended the bombardment of Gaza and backed the two-state solution.

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Tom Arms

Observations of an Expat: Middle East Consequences

By Tom Arms | Sat 5th October 2024 - 10:23 am

The Gaza War has escalated to become the Middle East war and Israel is winning – for now.

But the problem is that the Israeli government’s strategy is based entirely on total military victory over Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and their backer Iran.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – pushed by his ultra-orthodox allies – has left no room for political compromise or any consideration of the wider consequences.

At the UN General Assembly this week, the Israeli Prime Minister declared: “There is no place” In the Middle East that Israel’s “long arm cannot reach.” He then left the chamber to make a phone call ordering the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. He and a large slice of Hezbollah’s senior command structure were dead within the hour.

Shortly afterwards, Israel launched a ground invasion of southern Lebanon.

Iran could be restrained no longer. They were being humiliated. Tehran launched the largest ever missile attack on Tel Aviv. Thanks to Israel’s iron dome and American and British jets, only a handful of the missiles broke through. Netanyahu responded by pronouncing: “Iran made a big mistake…and it will pay for it.”

How will Israel make Iran pay for their attack? What will be America’s response? How about Russia, China and the Arab states? What are the likely consequences of what appears to be the start of a Middle East war?

First of all, we should examine the role of Hezbollah in the context of the wider relationships of the Middle East. Hezbollah is, first and foremost a creature of Iran. Its primary purpose is to act as a deterrent defensive shield against a threatened Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Its estimated 45,000-strong military force and 100,000-plus missiles were thought to be enough to keep Israel off balance and occupied but not nearly enough to invade the Jewish state and defeat it in a proper war.

But even as a defensive shield, Hezbollah has been weakening in recent years. Lebanon’s multiplying political and economic problems have been largely blamed at the party’s insistence of working as a state within a state while at the same time attempting to control the legitimate Lebanese political apparatus. Hezbollah is unpopular with the Lebanese people.

Then there are the missile attacks it has launched on northern Israel since 8 October. It may have started with 100,000 rockets and drones, but military analysts believe that at least half of Hezbollah’s arsenal has been either fired or destroyed by Israeli counterattacks.

Finally, there is Israel’s infiltration of Hezbollah’s communications system and the assassination of key figures. The destruction of pagers and walkie talkies indicates that Mossad has the ability to tell where almost every Hezbollah fighter is at any given time and the IDF (Israeli Defense Force) has the ability to destroy them with sophisticated guided missiles.

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Tom Arms

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 8th September 2024 - 10:28 am

Gaza

In a month it will be first anniversary of the start of the Gaza War. There is no end in sight.

The two sides – Israel and Hamas—have two diametrically opposed positions. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says he will accept nothing less than the total destruction of Hamas. He might reluctantly accept a temporary ceasefire if the Israeli Defence Forces or Mossad manage to assassinate Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. That would enable him to retrieve at least some of the hostages. But once those hostages are returned expect the attacks to resume.

Hamas leader Sinwar is holding out for nothing less than a permanent ceasefire. This means that at least a Hamas remnant would remain intact for Palestinians to build on. Netanyahu would regard such a result as failure.

The American, Qatari and Egyptian negotiators meanwhile are trying to bridge these apparently irreconcilable positions with a diplomatic agreement couched in terms of “constructive ambiguity” which allows both sides to claim concessions, if not total victory.

The cost of failure is high. At stake is not just the plight of millions of Gazans and the future security of the state of Israel. Hanging over the talks is the threat of a wider regional war. A slight misstep by Israel, Iran, Hezbollah or the Houthis can easily set off a major conflagration.

Ironically, escalation can work to the advantage of both Netanyahu and Sinwar. From the point of view of the Hamas leader, a full-throated Middle East conflict would draw Israeli forces away from Gaza to attack Hezbollah in Syria and Lebanon. There is also the possibility that an escalation could pull the Arabs off the fence and onto the Palestinian side.

Looking at the advantages of escalation through Israeli eyes, Netanyahu has been pressing the US for some time to join him in a direct attack on Iran which he sees as the fount of all of Israel’s problems. The Israeli prime minister was explicit in stating that goal in his recent address to a joint session of congress.

In the meantime, Netanyahu is no nearer to reaching his goal of the total destruction of Hamas and Yahya Sinwar is no nearer to admitting total defeat.

Immigration

There is a new forest of placards at Trump rallies: “Mass Deportation Now!” The same cry is being heard in Spain at Vox rallies. In France when the National Rally gathers. It is barked by some members of Britain’s Reform Party. In Germany The far-right Alternative fur Deutschland (AfD) has this week managed to gain control of the East German Lander of Thuringia.

And it is not just the far-right that is pushing the anti-immigrant line. Joe Biden’s tough new executive orders have dramatically reduced the number of illegal immigrants crossing America’ southern border. Stefan Lofven The leader of the centre-left, previously pro-immigrant Swedish Social Democrats recently reversed party policy to declare: “The Swedish people can feel safe in the knowledge that Social Democrats will stand up for a strict immigration policy.”

The Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, Hungary, Slovakia, Austria, Serbia, the Czech Republic… Virtually all of the Western world has turned anti-immigrant. Opposing immigration wins votes. Backing deportation is a bit iffy, but the debate is moving in that direction. The problem is that mass deportation is wholly impractical.

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Tom Arms

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 18th August 2024 - 9:49 am

United States

Kamala Harris, asserts Donald Trump, “is a communist.” The assertion is, of course, another blatant falsehood.

And the fact that the former president is resorting to the well-tried, but somewhat discredited, tactic of red-baiting demonstrates how desperate the Trump campaign has become since Harris took over from President Joe Biden.

Kamala Harris does have certain political beliefs and policies that run counter to those of Donald Trump, conservative voters and the Republican Party. The one that rankles most with conservatives is her support for America’s limited social safety net. Vice President Harris supports the universal retirement benefits (ie social security), Medicare (health benefits for the elderly) and Medicaid (health care for low-income Americans). She also favours abortion rights which puts her on a collision course with the evangelical right.

In European terms, such views would put Kamala Harris on the right wing of social democrats. The problem is that a large number of Americans – especially Republicans – drop the word “democrats” when talking about their allies and refer to Europeans simply as “socialists.” Furthermore, many of them wrongly equate democratic socialism with a slightly lesser form of communism.

Communism, however, is different. It promotes a classless society where all property is communally owned and the state controls the means of production. Because this system runs counter to human nature, a repressive government led by an unelected elite is require to enforce it. That is not being proposed by Kamala Harris. But hey ho, Donald Trump has never let the truth stand in the way of a good dog whistle conspiracy.

Gaza

The Gaza ceasefire talks appear to be going nowhere. According to the New York Times, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has tabled a new set of conditions which will almost certainly be rejected in Hamas who are refusing to attend talks in Qatar.

In addition, the assassination of negotiator Ismail Haniyeh has elevated hardliner Yahya Sinwar to the job. He is hiding in Hamas’s tunnel labyrinth and has said he would fight to the last Gazan.

Hanging over the ceasefire talks is the threat of Iran to retaliate for the killing of Ismail Haniyeh on Iranian soil. What that retaliation will involve is a worrying unknown, and the Iranians are keen to keep that way.

To confront the fear the Americans have ordered a nuclear-powered submarine equipped with cruise missiles to the Middle East. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin also despatched to the region a second aircraft carrier group and amphibious craft capable of landing several thousand marines. The Israeli government has told its citizens to stockpile food and water in safe rooms.

The Iranians have been briefing journalists that the one thing that would stop a retaliation would be a Gaza ceasefire. But that prospect is slipping further and further away.

The New York Times reported that this week the Netanyahu government has tabled several more conditions to the proposal they issued in May.  These include Israeli control of the Egyptian-Gaza border and a series of obstacles to the return of refugees to their homes in north Gaza. It has been reported that the new proposals are opposed by both the Israeli negotiators in Qatar and senior military people.

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Tom Arms

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 28th July 2024 - 10:30 am

Gaza

The world was presented with two alternative approaches to the Gaza War this week. The first was brokered by China. The second was outlined by Benjamin Netanyahu in an address to a Joint Session of the US Congress.

The first was supported by the feuding leaders of Hamas, the Palestinian Authority, 12 other Palestinian factions and a big chunk of the Global South. The second was received with a standing ovation by America’s Republican lawmakers but boycotted by dozens of Democrat Congressmen.

The Chinese-brokered deal is aimed at ending the schism between Fatah which rules the West Bank as the Palestinian Authority and Hamas which has governed Gaza since ejecting Fatah in 2007. The bitter split between the two has been one of the chief obstacles to implementing the much sought after two-state solution.

On Tuesday the Palestinian factions agreed to form an interim reconciliation government. They also agreed to jointly demand a ceasefire; a total withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and the West Bank; elections and they established the bones of a reconstruction programme for Gaza.

On Thursday, Netanyahu denied that Israel was blocking aid to Gaza; claimed that only a few civilians had died; called for the total destruction of Hamas; made no reference to the two-state solution and insisted that a post-war Gaza should be a “demilitarised and de-radicalised” enclave under Israeli military control.

Among those boycotting Netanyahu’s address was former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi. She described his speech as “by far the worst presentation of any foreign dignitary invited and honoured with the privilege of addressing the Congress of the United States.”

Ukraine

Another visitor to Beijing this week was Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba. It was the first visit to China by a Ukrainian official since the Russian invasion, and indicates a Ukrainian shift in emphasis from the military to the diplomatic.

The Ukrainians see the Chinese as the only third party power with any leverage over Vladimir Putin. Kuleba told his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi that Ukraine was ready to negotiate in good faith, but he added: “No such readiness is currently observed on the Russian side.” Wang agreed that that the “conditions and timing are not yet ripe.”

Vladimir Putin, for his part, is sticking to his demands that Ukraine handover the four regions his troops have occupied in eastern Ukraine; promise not to join NATO and agree to demilitarisation.

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Tom Arms

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 16th June 2024 - 9:28 am

Gaza

 Benjamin Netanyahu and the Hamas leadership share a common interest: It is to neither’s advantage at this stage to end the Gaza War. But neither is in either party’s interests to be seen as the bad guy.

In the case of the Israeli prime minister it is the fact that once the war is over he will face an overpowering clamour for a general election. It is an election which he will almost certainly lose as the Israeli electorate will hold him to account for the events that led up to the October 7th Hamas attack.

And then, once he is out of office, Netanyahu is likely to exchange the prime minister’s official residence for a prison cell via a trial on charges of fraud, bribery and breach of trust. Fleeing the country is not an option because by then the International Criminal Court will have issued an arrest warrant for war crimes – unless he flees to America.

With Hamas the story is different. There are two wars being fought in the eastern Mediterranean. One is on the ground and in the air over a strip of land 26 miles long and 2.5 miles wide. The other is a war in the court of international public opinion. Hamas is losing the first and winning the second.

The longer the military war continues. The greater the disproportionate losses in human terms between Palestinians and Israelis and the greater the victory for Hamas. Already it has secured diplomatic recognition of a Palestinian state from six EU countries—Norway, Spain, Slovenia, Cyprus, Sweden and Ireland.

Hamas has repeatedly proven that it puts political objectives before Palestinian lives. A string of historical precedents would have told them that the October 7th attack and the taking of hostages would have resulted in a highly disproportionate number of dead and injured Palestinians. It is also clear that Hamas has used hospitals, schools and Palestinian civilians, as shields.

So, where does that leave the prospects for peace and the diplomatic brokering of the US, Egypt and Qatar? At the moment US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is focused on the lack of Hamas’s enthusiasm for the latest peace proposal. Hamas say they have responded with “positivity” but Blinken says that the Hamas’s “positivity” includes “unworkable” changes.

Part of the latest problem is ownership of the plan currently on the table. It was announced by President Biden. But in his announcement he said it was an Israeli plan. However, as Hamas’ has been keen to point out, no Israeli official has publicly endorsed the plan.

In fact, official Israeli pronouncements continue to focus on continuing the war until Hamas’s “governing and military capabilities have been destroyed and the hostages returned.” There is also the political problem that Netanyahu’s far-right coalition partners will withdraw from the government if the plan outlined by Biden goes ahead. This would result in an election which Netanyahu would lose.

Israeli problems and positions in turn appear to be in direct conflict with a Hamas demand that Israel commit in writing to ending the fighting before it agrees to any plan from anyone. Until this deadlock is resolved and the Americans come up with a plan that allows both sides to achieve the aims they want without fighting, then the war continues.

Ukraine

Shortly after the Russians invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the West froze $325 billion in Russian assets.

Almost immediately the call went out to hand the money over to Ukraine to finance its war against Russia. But there was a problem with this tactic which can easily be summed up with one word – hypocrisy.

Putin was being condemned for contravening international law with his naked war of aggression. But confiscating Russian assets and handing them over to Ukraine would also break international law. And respect for international law is at the root of what Ukraine and the West is fighting for. Putin wants to create a world where might is right. America and its allies want to retain a world based on respect for international law.

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Tom Arms

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 9th June 2024 - 9:57 am

Gaza War

Sometimes the most shocking statements are the most obvious. Especially when they are spoken by those encumbered with having to be the most diplomatic.

This week President Joe Biden publicly stated what everyone knows but he has been reluctant to confirm: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is dragging out the Gaza War as a way to stay in office.

He might have also added that the war is keeping Netanyahu out of prison as he has been indicted on charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust. As long as he is prime minister he cannot be tried.

The latest Israeli opinion polls indicate that if an election were held in Israel today Netanyahu’s Likud-led coalition would win 46 seats compared to the opposition parties’ 68 seats. But, at the same time, polls show strong support for the war and its goal of eliminating Hamas. If Netanyahu achieves the total destruction of the enemy then the voters might just forgive him for creating the conditions that allowed the 7 October attack to happen.

Biden’s comments came in an interview with Time magazine and only a few days before he announced another plan to end the Gaza War. This one is in three phases.

Phase one would last six weeks and include a total ceasefire and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. Some hostages would be released. Hundreds of Palestinians would be released from Israeli prisons and there would be an immediate and massive influx of humanitarian aid into Gaza.

Under phase two the remaining hostages, including soldiers and the remains of any dead hostages would be released and the IDF would complete its withdrawal from Gaza. Phase three would involve reconstruction which would last three to five years. The two-state solution is not mentioned in this latest plan.

Despite the fact that President Biden has made it clear that there would be no future role for Hamas, the terrorist organisation has said that they view the plan “positively.”  Biden claimed that his phased proposal had been endorsed by the Israeli government, but then a spokesperson said: “Israel has not changed its conditions to reach a permanent ceasefire. That will only happen after our objectives are met including destroying Hamas’s military and governing capabilities.” He added that that is estimated to take seven months.

Meanwhile, a new front is opening on the border with Lebanon. Actually, it is an old front, but the fighting between Iran-backed Hezbollah and Israel is worsening. Hezbollah is now using explosive drones which are more difficult for Israel’s iron dome to stop and can reach further south. Israel, for its part, is levelling the southern Lebanese city of Sidon. Within the Israeli cabinet there is talk of creating an Israeli-occupied “security zone” in southern Lebanon, similar to the one Israel maintained until 2000.

The US has responded to the Lebanon threat with another three-part plan. First part is a ceasefire to allow residents on both sides of the border to return to their homes. Phase two is US economic assistance for financially-strapped Lebanon and the final phase calls for a newly demarcated border to improve security.

The problem is that the negotiations are with the Lebanese government while the power is with Iran-backed Hezbollah. They are unlikely to accept any ceasefire until a truce is agreed and implemented in Gaza. And, as President Biden acknowledged, that truce is against the political interests of Bibi Netanyahu.

European Parliament

Europe’s far-right is expected to sweep the board in this weekend’s elections to the European Parliament. This could mean problems ahead as a centre-left council and commission clash with a right-wing parliament.

This didn’t use to be a problem. It used to be that the European Parliament was a talk shop with limited oversight powers. The real power lay with the member states through the European Council which in turn effectively appointed the President of the European Commission and the 27 commissioners.

But over the years, increasing pressure has meant that more and more power is vested in the directly elected parliament rather than the indirectly elected council. Parliament has progressed from an advisory body to a co-decision maker.

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Tom Arms

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 5th May 2024 - 9:34 am

Germany

Germany’s far-right Alternative for Deutschland (AfD) party has problem in Thuringia. The East German Lander is an AfD stronghold, but their main candidate, MEP Maximilian Krah, has become a non-person.

The reason for his disappearance from the campaign for the European Parliament is the arrest of his aide Jian Guo on charges of spying for China. Krah himself, may not be above suspicion. He is known as one of the Asian giant’s biggest backers in the European Parliament.

The case of Jian Guo is only one of several scandals affecting AfD candidates for June’s European parliament elections. There have also been allegations that another AfD politician, Petr Byrstron, was paid $21,300 by a Russian disinformation network.

The ensuing political disgrace appears to be having effect on the electorate. In December, opinion polls showed the AfD with 23 percent of the national German vote. Another poll at the end of April showed them with the support of only 16 percent of the electorate.

In the meantime, Herr Krah’s name remains on the ballot in Thuringia. It has to. Once the parties submit their list of candidates then their names cannot be removed. Krah’s name is right at the top. But he is at the bottom of the list for speaking opportunities.

Gaza

Compromise appears to be in the air in the Hamas-Israel talks in Egypt. Israel is talking to negotiators about a six-week truce – possibly longer. Hamas is saying that it is looking at the latest proposals in a “positive light”.

So, what are the proposals? Specifics are a diplomatic secret. But what can be gleaned so far indicates that international pressure on Israel and Israeli pressure on Hamas is wringing concessions out of both sides.

A long truce will almost certainly mean the end of Benjamin Netanyahu’s pledge of total victory and the destruction of Hamas. But in return he wants to release of about 100 hostages which means that Hamas will have to relinquish their only bargaining chip.

The proposal currently on the table would call for a phased deal which American, Qatari and Egyptian mediators hope will lead to a permanent ceasefire.

The first phase would be the release of all female hostages in exchange for an undetermined number of Palestinians held in Israeli prisons. Once the initial exchange is completed Israeli troops would withdraw from the coastal road in Gaza. This would facilitate the movement of humanitarian aid and allow displaced Palestinians to return to their homes in northern Gaza. Once northern Gaza is re-opened the remaining hostages would be released along with the remains of hostages who have died in captivity. Israel would also release another batch of Palestinian prisoners.

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Tom Arms

Observations of an Expat: Poor Bibi

By Tom Arms | Sat 20th April 2024 - 10:13 am

Spare a thought for Bibi Netanyahu. He is caught between a rock and several hard places. He is fighting external wars against Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran; an internal war against his cabinet colleagues and a diplomatic one against the Biden Administration and most of the rest of the world, if not all of it.

The results of this complex picture could be Armageddon, stalemate or any one of the many in between scenarios.

While pondering the fate of the Israeli prime minister you may also want to consider all the other players who are dragging the world to the brink of a Middle Eastern abyss: President Joe Biden, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khameini and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. They are locked in a dangerous escalating tit for tat dance of death.

Within the Israeli cabinet there is a four-way tug-of-war between Prime Minister Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and War Cabinet Minister and Opposition Leader Benny Gantz. They all appear to hate and distrust each other.

According to sources, Gallant and Gantz have hardly spoken to each other since Benny Gantz beat out Yoav Gallant for the top military job ten years ago. Itamar Ben-Gvir is an ultra-Orthodox Jew who said Netanyahu should “go berserk” after Iran’s missile attack on Israel. He described Israel’s retaliatory attack on Iran’s third most populous city, Isfahan, as “lame.”

Gallant is not as extreme as Ben-Gvir, but not far off. Benny Gantz is the nearest thing to a dove that there is in the Israeli war cabinet. But even he is calling for the “total destruction” of Hamas. If elections were held today, Gantz would be prime minister.

All four men have conflicting views on a post-war Gaza. Netanyahu wants the army to take over. Gallant wants an ill-defined arrangement with the West Bank’s Palestinian Authority. Ben-Gvir is pushing for replacing the 2.2 million Gazan Palestinians with Israeli settlers and Benny Gantz is keeping his cards close to his chest, but hints at a politically slimmed down two-state solution.

Netanyahu, according to sources, deals with his rivals by ignoring them. All the major decisions since October 7 have been made by the prime minister without – or with the minimum – consultation.

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Paul Walter

Ed Davey: I will vote for lifelong tobacco purchase ban and I hope it passes

By Paul Walter | Tue 16th April 2024 - 9:59 am

There was a twelve minute interview with Ed Davey this morning on BBC Breakfast. Twelve minutes!

You can watch the interview here – move the slider to 01:30:15 (just under halfway through) to see the start.

The exchange started with the news, highlighted by the LibDems, that 72% of car thefts were not attended by the police last year. Ed said the Conservatives are “asleep at the wheel on crime” and that the LibDems would tackle the shortage of detectives.

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Tom Arms

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 14th April 2024 - 9:36 am

Middle East

A quick round-up on Gaza, Israel, Iran, Yemen, Lebanon, America and everywhere else that is affected by the ongoing crisis in the Middle East.

President Biden’s “outrage” following the killings of World Central Kitchen aid workers resulted in an apology and two new aid routes: The Erez Crossing and the port of Ashdod in southern Israel. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that as a result 400 aid trucks went through to Gaza immediately after the presidential fury. UN officials said the figure was actually 223.

Disenchanted State Department officials – of which there are a growing number – say that …

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Mo Waqas

Sometimes sorry just isn’t enough

By Mo Waqas | Sun 7th April 2024 - 1:08 pm

Wednesday was a day filled with sorrow and reflection as I learned about a tragic event unfolding in Gaza. A missile strike by the Israeli Defence Force claimed the lives of seven individuals associated with the World Central KitchenAid organization. Among them were three British citizens: John Chapman, James Anderson, and James Kirby. My heart goes out to the families of those who lost their lives in this catastrophe, particularly those working tirelessly to alleviate the severe food shortages plaguing the people of Gaza.

The mission of World Central Kitchen, to feed the most vulnerable under dire conditions, where some have had to resort to animal feed for sustenance, is nothing short of heroic. This calamity, however, casts a shadow on their noble work, revealing the precarious nature of providing aid in conflict zones.

The admission by IDF Chief Herzi Halevi, attributing the strike to misidentification, does little to assuage the gravity of the situation. The meticulous targeting of vehicles marked with the World Central Kitchen emblem seems to point to a breakdown not just in the fog of war but in accountability and oversight by one of the world’s most technologically advanced militaries.

In a separate, equally disturbing event, a suspected Israeli strike demolished the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria. This act, resulting in the death of seven members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), escalates tensions further and breaches the sanctity of diplomatic missions, a cornerstone of international relations.

These events have reignited the discourse on the Israel-Palestine conflict, underscoring the urgent need for peace and the problematic nature of ongoing arms sales to Israel. Calls for a ceasefire from former Supreme Court Justices and reconsideration of support for UNWRA highlight the potential complicity in serious violations of international law.

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Tom Arms

Observations of an ex pat: Suspend arms shipments to Israel

By Tom Arms | Sat 6th April 2024 - 9:50 am

Selling weapons to Israel is a breach of international law.

This is not my opinion. It is the judgement of 600 British legal eagles, including three former members of the UK Supreme Court. They have been joined by 130 parliamentarians and the three main Opposition parties have demanded a debate on the issue.

It is also the verdict of the governments of Canada, the Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, Japan and Spain. They have all suspended arms shipments to Israel.

All the above agree that Israel is breaking a number of international laws with its attacks on civilians in Gaza. Furthermore, that countries that supply the Israeli government with weapons are complicit in breaking those laws.

So what laws is Israel breaching? To start with there is Article 7 of the UN Arms Trade Treaty which “prohibits the export of arms where is an overriding risk that the weapons can be used to commit serious violations of international humanitarian law.”

It is an international law which has been enforced by Britain in the past. In 2019 the British Court of Appeals used it to suspend arms sales to Saudi Arabia based on the Saudis indiscriminate bombing of Yemen.

There is also the 1948 Geneva Convention Against Genocide, which, ironically, was enacted as a response to the killing of 6 million Jews in the Nazi Holocaust. This convention prohibits “acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethical, racial or religious group.” It goes on to describe the prohibited acts: “causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group and deliberately inflicting conditions of life calculated to bring about the destruction of the group as a whole.”

The Israeli government and their supporters say that claims that they are breaching international law are “nonsense.” But, so far the Israeli Defence Force has caused the death of more than 33,000 Palestinians in Gaza and seriously injured 52,000 more. Eighty-five percent – 1.9 million people have had their homes destroyed by Israeli bombs. Gaza’s hospitals are medical rubble. Israel’s refusal to allow food and water into Gaza have created famine conditions. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said that Gazans are “the highest number of people facing catastrophic hunger ever recorded.”

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Mary Reid

Layla Moran reports that her family is safely out of Gaza

By Mary Reid | Fri 5th April 2024 - 9:03 am

Some good news from Layla Moran:

She adds:

Thank you to all who have followed their story. But while theirs ends with reunification, having lost one along the way, this atrocious war rages on. I won’t stop working until we achieve not just an end to violence, but peace once and for all.

As a Palestinian, Layla has been a powerful voice on the war in Gaza, especially as she is our Foreign Affairs spokesperson. Back in December she talked to Channel 4 news about her extended family who were holed up in the church in Gaza.

For now we are just grateful that Layla’s family are safe.

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Mark Valladares

3 April 2024 – today’s press releases

By Mark Valladares | Wed 3rd April 2024 - 10:30 pm
  • Aid worker deaths: Davey calls on government to suspend arms sales to Israel
  • Royal Mail proposal to cut second class deliveries: Another slap in the face
  • London Lib Dems response to Khan economic announcement
  • Worst hit rivers for sewage dumps revealed as Lib Dems call for new Blue Flag status
  • Rennie responds to CalMac boss stepping down

Aid worker deaths: Davey calls on government to suspend arms sales to Israel

The Liberal Democrats have called on the government to suspend arms sales to Israel, following the deaths of seven aid workers including three British nationals in an Israeli air strike in Gaza.

Liberal Democrat Leader Ed Davey said:

The deaths of these British aid workers in Gaza is an absolute disgrace. These brave people were trying to help starving families in Gaza.

Clearly, the thought that British-made arms could have been used in strikes such as these is completely unacceptable.

The government must take swift action to suspend arms exports to Israel. We must redouble our efforts to secure an immediate bilateral ceasefire.

Royal Mail proposal to cut second class deliveries: Another slap in the face

Responding to the news that Royal Mail wants to reduce second class deliveries to three days a week, Liberal Democrat Business Spokesperson Sarah Olney MP said:

These plans are a slap in the face for families being asked to pay more for less.

The cost of first and second class stamps has gone up sharply in recent years. It risks creating a cost of postage crisis, as people feel forced to pay for first class stamps because second class delivery days are being slashed.

People shouldn’t have to pay the price for Royal Mail’s failure, after executives missed their delivery targets and paid themselves eye-watering bonuses.

London Lib Dems response to Khan economic announcement

Responding to Sadiq Khan’s joint economic announcement with Rachel Reeves today (Weds), Rob Blackie, the Liberal Democrat candidate for Mayor of London, said:

Labour’s plan ignores London’s biggest economic problem – Brexit. Labour are too scared to say that Brexit has damaged London’s economy, making us poorer and costing us jobs.

For instance, technology companies now have to spend time and money complying with two data laws, one each from the EU and the UK. And too many European citizens in London are made to feel unwelcome.

As Liberal Democrat Mayor I will campaign to fix the damage done by Brexit, and bring in a London passport to protect London’s EU citizen rights.

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Mark Valladares

25 March 2024 – today’s press releases

By Mark Valladares | Mon 25th March 2024 - 11:15 pm
  • Cameron must address the Commons not just Tory MPs on 1922 Committee
  • Lib Dems welcome motion passed by UN Security Council
  • Rennie responds to former Scottish Government adviser dismantling independence claims

Cameron must address the Commons not just Tory MPs on 1922 Committee

Commenting on the reports that the only Conservative MPs on the 1922 Committee will be given the opportunity to question Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron this afternoon, Liberal Democrat Foreign Affairs Spokesperson Layla Moran MP said:

When we’re facing such serious national security threats, it is outrageous that only Conservative backbenchers will hear from the Foreign Secretary and have the chance to question

…

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Tom Arms

Observations of an Expat: Middle East Movement

By Tom Arms | Sat 2nd March 2024 - 10:29 am

Finally, there appears to be a glimmer of progress on the Gaza front.

In the unlikely venue of a New York ice cream parlour, President Joe Biden, revealed this week that he is hopeful for a ceasefire by Monday.

And almost simultaneously, Muhammad Shtayyeh, prime minister of the Palestinian Authority, resigned to make way for a reorganised government for the West Bank and Gaza Strip which could provide an outside chance of leading to recognition of a State of Palestine.

The departure of Shtayyeh comes amidst a flurry of diplomatic meetings involving American, British, EU, and Arab state officials in Riyadh, Paris and Doha.

What appears to be emerging is an agreement for a “temporary” ceasefire of “some weeks” which would involve the release of all the remaining Israeli hostages; the freeing of an unspecified number of Palestinian prisoners and a massive influx of humanitarian aid into Gaza.

That appears to be the bones of a short-term agreement. The long-term is more problematic because it involves a revival of the two-state solution and recognition of a reconstituted Palestinian Authority as a Palestinian state.

The idea was mooted back in January by British Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron as part of a carrot and stick approach that involved British support for Israel as the flip side of the diplomatic coin.

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Tom Arms

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 25th February 2024 - 8:30 am

Alexei Navalny is dead.

His body lies in a prison morgue inside the Arctic Circle. It is generally accepted that he was murdered, or at the very least Vladimir Putin is responsible for his death by sentencing him to a frozen penal colony.

After days of standing at the prison gates, Navalny’s mother was finally allowed to see his body. But she has been denied permission to take it away for burial.

Instead she was told that she had to agree to agree to a secret burial at a hush-hush site. Otherwise, Lydmilia Navalny reported, “the authorities said they would do things to Alexei’s body.”

Putin is clearly afraid of Navalny the martyr. He is afraid that a public burial at an accessible site will become a focal point for those opposed to his corrupt oligarchical rule.

Navalny was not even cold on his morgue slab before the Russian media machine was trying to spin him out of the Russian story. The state-controlled news machine was late in reporting his death and its accounts were, at best perfunctory. There was no contextual information to explain why he was in prison and one commentator refused to use his first name.

From Putin himself there has been a deafening silence. This is unsurprising. In the past, the Russian president has refused to use the opposition leader’s name when directly asked about him at press conferences. He clearly hopes that the dearth of reports by the media will result in Navalny becoming a non-person as well as dead.

This maybe the case in Russia, but it isn’t working in the West. Navalny’s wife Yulia and their 23-year-old daughter Dasha have already been quick to pick up the baton. Navalny’s 15-year-old son Zahar is probably not far behind.

But will the West listen? Yulia made a major impact when she spoke at the recent Munich Security Conference and Dasha joined her mother in an emotional White House meeting with President Joe Biden.

But Biden and the Europeans were a receptive audience before Alexei’s death. The nut that needs to be cracked is the MAGA Republicans. When Trump was asked by Fox News to comment on Navalny’s death he refused to blame Putin and focused on linking Alexei’s death to his own legal problems. We are both persecuted victims of the state, he claimed. Trump added that Navalny should never have returned to Russia after being treated in a German hospital for novichok poisoning.

Navalny knew he would be sent to prison as soon as he returned. He explained the move by saying that he could not expect his followers to overcome fear of Putin’s rule if he did not himself demonstrate bravery by returning to certain imprisonment.

 

The world is divided on a ceasefire in Gaza. Political leaders in Europe, America, Japan and Australia are generally behind the proposal for a “temporary ceasefire,” the return of the hostages and a massive increase of humanitarian aid into Gaza.

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Caron Lindsay

Layla Moran’s speech in tonight’s debate: We need to stop this now

By Caron Lindsay | Wed 21st February 2024 - 9:55 pm

I thought about putting Layla’s speech in the last post, but I didn’t want it getting lost. Her clarity and wisdom and persuasiveness, and her liberal desire to bring people together have been a huge credit to her and to this party in recent months. We can all be incredibly proud of her, especially when this has been so personally painful for her.

She spoke in the debate and her words in full are below:

I am speechless at the way this debate began. As the House knows, there has been scant opportunity for me to tell the story not just of my family or the hundreds in the church where they are in northern Gaza, but of Palestinians on the ground and, indeed, those who lost people in the horrendous attacks on 7 October, whether through murder or abduction. I am grateful that we have this opportunity. In the hours of debate in front of us, my first ask of anyone who speaks after me is, please, to hold all those people in their hearts as they say what they say. I believe sincerely that this House is moving towards a right position, and I will explain what I think that is in a moment. On the suggestion that this House is in some way against a ceasefire—I would hope an immediate one, however the semantics play out in the votes later—can we please try to send a message in particular to the Palestinian people perishing in their tens of thousands on the ground, and to those hostage families that, fundamentally, we need this to stop now? I do not care what we call it.

I should have started by drawing the House’s attention to my entry in the register of interests. I sit as an unpaid adviser on the board of the International Centre for Justice for Palestinians.

Last week I went to Israel and Palestine with Yachad, and I will start with a story. On the first day, we went down to the southern border with Gaza, to a place called Nativ Ha’asara, a place I have visited before. We met an incredible woman called Roni, who had lost family members—16 from that kibbutzim had perished. As I went there, I looked across at northern Gaza. I saw the plumes of smoke. I heard the drones and the “pop pop pop” of the gunfire, and I broke down. As I walked back through the village, Roni, an Israeli peace activist, took me to one side, gave me a hug and said, “I’m so sorry”, which I said back. We both cried and held each other.

It is important to remember that although those voices of peace in Israel have been silent for some time, many of the people killed on that day were allies of the Palestinian people who had been calling for decades against the occupation, calling out Netanyahu’s Government, and condemning Ben-Gvir and Smotrich. It is for that reason that I welcome the sanctions on those extremist settlers, because there is a direct link between the right wing elements of Netanyahu’s Government and those extremist settlers. The amendment that the Lib Dems tabled to the motion stated that we should not finish there. We need to continue those sanctions on those people and their connected entities.

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Caron Lindsay

Ed on tonight’s drama in Parliament: We need an urgent end to the humanitarian catastrophe

By Caron Lindsay | Wed 21st February 2024 - 9:17 pm

So I managed to sleep thoughout tonight’s drama.

Waking up to a phone glowing with WhatsApp messages, I realised there had been a bit of a rammy in the Commons. I checked out the BBC summary and my immediate and instinctive reaction is that the Speaker had been right to allow votes on three distinctive positions on such a huge issue. The SNP’s motion called for an immediate ceasefire, the Government’s called for a humanitarian pause and Labour’s had a bit more meat on its bones about how you actually get to a lasting peace. Normally on an opposition day, you’d get the motion and a Government amendment. It is unusual to have a third option, but in this instance, it made sense to reflect as broad a consensus as possible. He could have done better by including a fourth option, ours.

Ours said:

Expresses its devastation at the mounting humanitarian disaster in Gaza with tens of thousands of innocent Palestinians killed, millions displaced and thousands of homes destroyed; calls on the Prime Minister to oppose publicly and at the UN Security Council the proposed IDF offensive in Rafah; further urges Hamas to unconditionally and immediately release the over 100 hostages taken following the deplorable attacks on 7 October 2023; notes the unprecedented levels of illegal settler violence in the Occupied Palestinian Territories left unchecked by the Israeli Government; welcomes the recent sanctions by the UK Government against four extremist Israeli settlers who have committed human rights abuses against Palestinian communities in the West Bank; urges the UK Government to sanction all violent settlers and their connected entities; calls on the UK Government to uphold international law and the judgments of international courts under all circumstances; further notes that the only path to regional security is a two-state solution based on 1967 borders with Hamas not in power; condemns Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s repeated assertions that there is no future for a Palestinian state; and further urges the UK Government to call for an immediate bilateral ceasefire in Gaza, which will allow an end to the humanitarian devastation, get the hostages out and provide an opportunity for a political process leading to a two-state solution, providing security and dignity for all peoples in Palestine and Israel.”

You would hope that when discussing one of the biggest humanitarian disasters and most dangerous conflicts we have seen in a long time, the Mother of Parliaments would model generous, collaborative behaviour. It was not beyond the wit of the SNP to work with the other opposition parties to bring together something that truly reflected the will of the House.

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Geoffrey Payne

The Gaza conflict and the hierarchy of oppression

By Geoffrey Payne | Tue 9th January 2024 - 9:15 am

Many years ago Winnie Mandela, wife of Nelson Mandela was considered to be a hero. She had to suffer for years whilst her husband was in jail, maybe for life. Yet she still carried on the struggle for freedom against apartheid South Africa.

I also considered her a hero, then one day she announced “With our boxes of matches, and our necklaces, we shall liberate this country”. What she was describing was a horribly sadistic method of murdering someone. In that instant, for me, she was no longer a hero. She was in fact a very nasty person. I was pleased that Nelson divorced her, although I also felt sorry for him that she had turned out this way when he was in jail. Yet for many people she remained a hero, including by left wing progressives who normally oppose the death penalty, presumably for it’s cruelty.

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Tom Arms

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 7th January 2024 - 8:32 am

Israel

“The Day After Gaza” – as the discussion about what to do after the fighting is called in Israel, is the number one topic in the Israeli cabinet.

Not surprisingly, the coalition government is hopelessly divided.

On the far-right side are the representatives of the Ultra-Orthodox parties led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir. They want to “encourage” the Palestinians to leave the Gaza and replace them with Jewish settlers.

A shade more reasonable is Defense Minister Yoav Gallant who wants Israel to retain overall security control while working with a multi-national force in Gaza. Palestinians would be free to manage day-to-day affairs as long as they did not “commit any hostile actions against Israel.”

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has yet to officially unveil his ideas in cabinet, but he has written an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal. In it he said he had three goals – destroy Hamas everywhere; demilitarise the Gaza Strip and “deradicalise” Palestinians.

The first goal, presumably involves assassinating Hamas leaders in foreign countries. This has the potential of being construed by the host country as an act of war. It certainly would not help Israel’s image.

As for demilitarisation, Gaza is already officially demilitarised. Everyone can see how well that has worked.

The third is new and startling Netanyahu claims that at the root of current problems is a Hamas-controlled education system which has radicalised the Palestinians against Israel. He wants to re-educate or “de-radicalise” Palestinians through a revised educational system. This smacks of the re-education camps of China, the Soviet Union, Vietnam, Cambodia….

Taiwan and China

2024 will be a big election year. Four billion people in more than 70 countries will be trooping to the polls.

Some of the elections will be a sham. Russia is a prime example. I can predict now that Vladimir Putin will win.

Others are real and important. They include the US, UK, EU, India, South Korea and Mexico. One of the most important and potentially consequential elections occurs next Saturday in Taiwan. The result will determine if the 24million Taiwanese move away from or towards Mainland China.

The voters’ decision will have a major impact on the actions of Xi Jinping’s China, and this turn has the potential of dramatic consequences for the rest of the world.

The Taiwanese elections are both presidential and legislative. At the moment both the legislature and the presidency are controlled by the Democratic People’s Party (DPP). The President, Tsai Ing-wen has served two terms and is barred from standing for a third.

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John Kelly

The Gaza war continues…

By John Kelly | Fri 5th January 2024 - 9:29 am

Baroness Morris of Bolton begins her New Year message as President of Medical Aid for Palestinians (MAP) as follows:

In 1984, a group of doctors and humanitarians, horrified by the massacre of Palestinian civilians they had witnessed in the Sabra and Shatila refugee camps in Lebanon, grouped together to form Medical Aid for Palestinians (MAP). For them, medical relief wasn’t just about saving lives, but was a tangible act of solidarity with a people who had suffered so much for so long.

Forty years later, amid the heartbreaking scenes we are witnessing in Gaza, the future for Palestinians appears bleaker and more uncertain than ever before. Families have been torn apart, homes destroyed, and countless lives shattered. The healthcare system is on its knees. Two million people are now hungry.

We can’t turn on our TVs or radios without a daily report of more civilians being killed – :children, journalists, healthcare workers, staff of UN agencies and NGOs.  The Liberal Democrats are the only national party in the UK to have unequivocally called for a ceasefire.  The majority of Tory MPs seem intent on egging on the Israeli war machine.  Labour is more divided, but its leadership has lost its moral compass – as so often happens with that party on international issues. This interview with Keir Starmer illustrates the point.

What can we do as a small party in Parliament to influence the direction of travel? The situation looks dire.  Israeli PM Netanyahu seems determined to carry on destroying Gaza and indiscriminately killing Palestinian civilians so he can declare victory over Hamas and complete his revenge for the frightful horrors perpetrated on October 7th.  Members of his cabinet – led by Ben Gvir – are calling for Gaza to be cleansed of Palestinians and settled by Israelis.

In addition, in the West Bank, Israeli settlers have escalated attacks, murders and rampant destruction of Palestinian land and property, unchecked by the IDF and supported by powerful Israeli government ministers, Itamir Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. 

What is just as disturbing is the attitude of many Israelis towards Palestinians.  My must read/listen item of the Christmas period was an interview by Owen Jones with Gideon Levy. Levy is the son of Holocaust survivors.  He served in the Israeli army and has become one of Israel’s leading journalists. He has spent much of his time in the West Bank covering and criticising the practices of settlers, the Israeli army and successive Israeli governments. It is well worth listening to this interview which sadly demonstrates how the dehumanisation of Palestinians has become accepted by the majority of Israeli citizens.  Levy argues that only external pressure from abroad is likely to change Israel’s treatment of Palestinians and end its illegal occupation (something quite explicitly recognised by our party when it passed resolution F39 in 2021).

Two of my least favourite listens of recent weeks have been an interview (in French)with Belgian TV and a speech in Germany, both by Yair Lapid the Leader of Yesh Atid, our supposed sister party in Israel.  Uncompromising in his support of the present military assault, he showed absolutely no remorse or sympathy for the suffering of Palestinians at the hands of Israel and in the TV interview was also questioning the idea of a separate state for Palestinians.

In 2003 our Party was the only one to take a strong and moral position on the Iraq war.  The Party was almost totally united on this – only Paddy Ashdown and a few others thought differently.  After some initial hesitation Charles Kennedy played a leading role in the biggest anti-war demonstration; and, as a matter of fact, 2005 was our best election year since the 1920s. Many people who are still active in the party joined because of our stand.

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Andy Daer

What’s the future for Israel and Palestine?

By Andy Daer | Wed 20th December 2023 - 12:55 pm

It is now more than two months since the Hamas attack in southern Israel, and the bombing and shelling of Palestinians in Gaza continues.  Many of us have marched in support of a cease-fire, but the marches have achieved nothing, so it must be time for a rethink.

The horrific, murderous the attack on October 7 had its roots in Palestinian resentment, and arguably the seeds were planted by British Foreign Secretary Arthur Balfour’s decision during the First World War to donate part of a foreign country we didn’t own to a people who’d suffered abuse and discrimination in Europe for hundreds of years and wanted somewhere to go that wasn’t Europe.  

Others say the current conflict in Gaza is simply the consequence of Hamas behaving “like animals” on October 7.  There are proximal causes and more deep-seated ones, some of which go back a very long way – for some Jewish fundamentalists the claim to ownership of Judea and Samaria goes back thousands of years.   Many other more recent factors are involved, like the funding of Hamas by Qatar (among other countries) and the funding of Israel by the US, which have made the Palestinians pawns in a game driven by the geopolitical ambitions of others.     

What is being lost in the debate over which part of history is most important is the fate of the Palestinian people in Gaza, and increasingly in the West Bank, with bombs falling, bullets flying, and starvation and disease now gaining hold.  Since October 7, more than 20,000 people have been killed, upward of 50,000 injured, and hostages are being held.  Around two million people in Gaza are living in a devastated waste land, short of water, food, electricity, shelter, medical aid, and hope that the world will do anything to alleviate their suffering. 

If the world community is going to move on from simply grandstanding, the obvious first requirement is an end to the fighting.  Calling for Israel to stop hasn’t worked, but if we think that only Israel has the power to end the war we are missing an important point.  Israel has said it won’t stop until Hamas is defeated or surrenders, so the sooner Hamas lays down its arms the better.

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Posted in Europe / International and Op-eds | Also tagged and | 29 Comments
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