Israel’s increasingly brazen conduct in Lebanon and the wider region should come as no surprise to anyone who has been paying attention. A government that has faced few meaningful consequences for its conduct in Gaza was never likely to become more restrained elsewhere.
From repeatedly violating US-brokered ceasefires to advancing the ‘doomsday’ E1 settlement project despite near-universal international opposition, recent Israeli actions all point to the same conclusion: its leaders have become convinced they can violate international law with impunity. The uncomfortable truth is that, to a large extent, the international community has taught them exactly that.
For two and a half years, Israel’s systematic bombardment and starvation of Gaza’s civilian population has met with little more than handwringing from the UK and its allies.
International courts have repeatedly sounded the alarm. In January 2024, the International Court of Justice found that there was a plausible risk of genocide in Gaza and ordered Israel to undertake provisional measures to prevent genocide – none of which were implemented.
The ruling triggered binding obligations on third states under the Genocide Convention to take active steps to prevent genocide and ensure accountability for those responsible.
Yet many western governments responded with little more than expressions of concern. Instead of meaningful pressure, there were statements. Instead of consequences, there were warnings. Instead of enforcement, there was handwringing. As the Lib Dems declared in September 2025 genocide has clearly been taking place. Sadly it continues.
The same pattern was evident when the International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defence Yoav Minister Gallant, alongside a Hamas commander, for war crimes and crimes against humanity.
Rather than welcoming the arrest warrants, as when Vladamir Putin was indicted, the UK’s then Conservative government refused to say whether it would arrest Netanyahu if he visited the UK. Subsequent reports indicate that then Foreign Secretary David Cameron even threatened to defund the court after learning of its intention to seek the indictments.