Tag Archives: iran

Tom Arms

Tom Arm’s World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 3rd May 2026 - 9:46 am

Ukraine

Robots are the future face of war. And Ukraine’s dominance in the production of drones and unmanned boats and ground vehicles means that it is well on its way to becoming a defense industry superpower.

Drone production is up from 800,000 a year three years ago to seven million in 2025. They enjoy a three to one advantage over the Russians over the top of the range First Person View (FPV) drones. These are drones fitted with a camera which allows the operator to see in real time everything the drone sees. Ukraine is also producing 1,000 fixed wing drones a day. These can travel up to 1,500 miles into Russian territory.

Ukraine’s success with unmanned boats and submarines has given it dominance in the Black Sea. But its latest success has been with a variety of Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs). They are used primarily to deliver supplies to front line troops, but they have also been used to lay mines and rescue soldiers trapped behind enemy lines. The latest versions are also used as launching pads for armed drones.

Ukraine has 2,500 companies involved in the development and production of drones and unmanned vehicles which, according to President Volodomyr Zelensky,  have conducted 22,000 missions in the first three months of this year.

Russia is, of course, also stepping up production of drones and unmanned vehicles. Early in the war Moscow had the advantage. But Ukraine adopted an entrepreneurial approach to production which has overtaken and streaked ahead of Russian manufacturing whose rigid production base is heavily centralised Soviet-style.

Which brings us to Ukraine’s future as a defense industry superpower. Most of the country’s unmanned weaponry is fully utilised fighting the Russian behemoth. But Ukrainians are starting to sell to other countries a limited surplus and—more importantly their expertise– to help pay for the war. And when the fighting finally stops, Ukraine’s lead in the field will play a major part in financing the country’s reconstruction.

Recently President Volodomyr Zelensky made an unscheduled trip to the United Arab Emirates to talk to them about drone defenses for protection against Iranian missiles. The Gulf States are already well-equipped with American-made Patriot missiles and THAAD (The High-Altitude Air Defense) systems. But these cost up to a $1million per fired missiles whereas Ukrainian drones range from $2,500 to $25,000.

So far Kyiv has concluded deals—or is the final stages of negotiations with the following countries: Germany, Britain, Norway, the Netherlands, Romania, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Japan, Turkey, Azerbaijan and Syria. Defense experts estimate that sales of equipment and know could be worth $8billion this year, rising to $22 billion-plus in 2028. This means a substantial contribution to Ukraine’s defense budget of $80 billion. However, it is a drop in the ocean when one considers the estimated $500 billion in reconstruction costs.

The success of Ukraine’s drone industry has a wider financial impact than immediate cash revenue. It enables the country to project itself as an industrial power for decades to come which improves its ability to borrow on the international bond markets to pay for both the war and reconstruction.

The King and Trump

One does not discuss private conversations with the monarch. That is the convention—in fact, the rule—when talking with the British king.

There is an exceptionally good reason for this rule/convention. The king must be seen to be above politics. He must be to appoint prime ministers based on the wishes of the electorate rather than his own personal prejudices.

That does not mean that the king cannot discuss politics with politicians. And because he has been involved at the top end of the political process his entire life, he is well-placed to give advice. And he does. To political leaders around the world. He just does it PRIVATELY.

That is why eyebrows were raised when Trump revealed the contents of a private Oval Office conversation with King Charles when he told the world that the king is opposed to Iran having nuclear weapons. “Even more than I do,” he quipped.

The president’s comment was no great revelation. Of course, King Charles III is opposed to nuclear proliferation as Buckingham Palace made clear with a slightly raised eyebrow. That is the British government position, and the king supports the government of the day.

The king’s views on the subject are less important than the fact that – once again—Donald Trump has proven that he cannot be trusted to abide by the normal rules and conventions.

Iran

Continue reading »
Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged , and | 2 Comments
Tom Arms

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 26th April 2026 - 10:30 am

United States

Mid-term election fever is starting to grip America. And it comes at a time when American’s trust in their electoral system – the cornerstone of any democratic state – is plummeting.

It is still six months before Americans troop to the polls to elect a third of their senators and all the members of the House of Representatives. But the candidates are busy at the hustings. This is mainly because American elections are a two-stage affair. Stage one the parties vote to decide who will be their candidate and in stage two the winners of the “primaries” compete for the main prize.

But will the elections be free and fair? Only 20 percent of Republicans think they will be, 25 percent of Democrats and 22 percent of Independents.

For this lack of trust, we can thank the current resident of the White House. His never-ending allegation that the 2020 presidential elections were stolen and claims that the current mid-term elections are likely to suffer the same fate have encouraged his MAGA base—and others to deny the veracity of any election result.

Actually, polls show that distrust in Americans started at the turn of the century with the Gore v. Bush presidential election. It recovered under Obama but then took a major beating when Trump came along. Basically, his assertion is that it is inconceivable that people would vote against him. Therefore, it is impossible for Donald Trump – or anyone he supports – to lose an election.

Democrats claim that to ensure that he wins, Trump will go to any length, including creating conditions that allow him to declare martial law to prevent elections being held. They also fear that he could send armed ICE agents to key voting districts to intimidate African American and Latino voters from turning up to vote or simply declare some votes invalid.

All of those measures would be illegal and would be quickly challenged and reversed in the courts. But then the courts themselves could be used by both parties to challenge results with which they disagree. This could result in delaying the seating of elected representatives and bring the electoral process into further disrepute.

Republicans fear that the Democrats will flood the voting booths with illegal immigrants and claim this has been a feature of past elections. It is true that some illegal immigrants have voted and that they voted Democrat. But the issue is a major red herring. In 2024, Michigan recorded the largest number of attempted votes by illegal immigrants – 15 out of 5.7 million votes cast. Other states recorded either single digits or no cases at all.

The House of Representatives Committee on House Administration is tasked with the job of adjudicating any disputed elections to the US House of Representatives. To try and head off any Trumpian-backed disputes, committee member Joe Morelle has produced a list of 150 ways that Trump may try to unfairly influence or block elections.

These have all been discussed with state election officials who are responsible for organising and monitoring elections (the federal government is expressly forbidden from involvement in elections). Whether that is enough remains to be seen. Certainly, the stakes are high in November. A Republican victory would mean two more years of Trump unfettered. A Democratic landslide—which is widely predicted– could lead to a third impeachment or, at the very least, a Trump White House encumbered by endless congressional investigations.

Iran

Chaos, chaos everywhere, with no end to the Iran War in sight.

Both Tehran and Washington are hotbeds of infighting and backstabbing without the sign of any clear leadership which is a prerequisite to end the war.

In the Pentagon this week, Secretary of Defense/War Pete Hegseth fired John Phelan, who as Secretary of the Navy was responsible for organising the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian ports.

No reason was given for the “immediate” sacking of Phelan, but it has been widely reported, that Hegseth was annoyed with Phelan going behind his back to speak directly with the president.

Since the fighting began, Hegseth has also fired Army Chief of Staff General Randy George, and Jacqueline Smith, editor of the editorially independent Pentagon newspaper “Stars and Stripes.” Since taking office, the former TV presenter has sacked more than a dozen senior generals and admirals.

As for Trump himself, his strategy appears to consist of a series of rolling ultimatums as he goes from calling on the Iranian people to rise up; to bombing Iran into the “stone age;” to joint management of the Strait of Hormuz to naval blockade….

Continue reading »
Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged and | 6 Comments
Tom Arms

Observations of an Expat: The Cost

By Tom Arms | Sat 18th April 2026 - 9:43 am

Trump’s War against Iran has upended the world economy. And it has only just begun. As one economist said: “At the moment things are bad. They are going to get worse and they could become catastrophic.”

At the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) spring meeting of world finance ministers the IMF revised down world economic growth for 2026 from 3.3 percent to 3.1 percent. It then went on to warn that if the Iran War continued much longer there was a real risk of a global recession.

Of the world’s advanced economies, the UK is the hardest hit according to both the IMF and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Predicted growth in the UK is 0.8 percent for 2026, down from 1.3 percent.

Even harder hit are the Asia Pacific countries who are dependent on the Persian Gulf for their gas and oil-based energy. Asia is also the most populous continent and accounts for more than half of global manufacturing which means that economic hits to that region have major global impact. The UN Development Programme (UNDP) reckons that the war has already cost Asia-Pacific countries $300 billion.

Fossil fuels are not the only vital commodity exported from the Persian Gulf. The region is the world’s major source of urea which is a derivative of natural gas and a major component of fertiliser. There is a real danger that the lack of fertiliser will hit global crop yields.

The UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) has warned that forty-five million people could be pushed into “food insecurity” and that food shortages could reach “catastrophic levels.”

The Eurozone has also been hit. IMF growth predictions for the Eurozone have been revised down from 1.3 percent to 1.1 percent and inflation is expected to go up from 2.1 percent to 2.6 percent. Trump’s war has made it unlikely that the European Central Bank can cut interest rates. In fact, they may have to raise them. This view is being echoed by central banks around the world.

Germany is the hardest hit of the Eurozone countries. This is because its economy is heavily geared towards manufacturing which in turn is fuelled by oil and gas. Because France derives a large part of its energy from nuclear power plants it will escape a lot of the pain, but the French finance minister has warned about inflation and supply chain risks.

Continue reading »
Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged | 9 Comments
Jack Wilkin

Trump may be about to burst the tech bubble. 

By Jack Wilkin | Wed 8th April 2026 - 11:29 am

Trump’s war on Iran is impacting more than just the price of oil. It is also impacting fertiliser shipments, which, combined with the UK government decision to tax fertiliser (being introduced in January 2027) will cause food prices in the UK and around the world to increase – hence why the government needs to seriously start looking at food security. Although both are incredibly important, the increase in the cost of oil and food resulting from Trump-Netanyahu’s attack on Iran and the Iranian retaliation is well known. What is perhaps less covered is its impact on the export of helium.

At first glance, the lack of gas that makes your voice squeaky at children’s birthday parties may not seem like a big deal. But it is the foundation of the modern global economy. 

The impact this disruption of helium will have on the global tech industry was brought to my attention by a recent video by Phil Moorhouse. The Gulf States don’t just export oil, gas and annoying influencer videos but also helium, with Qatar exporting 30% of the global helium supply. 

The US economy, for all its supposed strength, has been leaning heavily on one thing: tech. AI. Last year, AI-related capital expenditures were the second-biggest driver in US GDP growth, but all that might be coming to an end now. I do think the overvalued tech sector in the States was going to burst anyway, but Trump’s war might have sped the process up and made it far worse. 

The reason for it is that the tech sector needs helium for the production of microchips – something that is already being impacted by higher energy costs caused by Trump’s war. Chip fabrication involves extreme heat, particularly when lasers etch microscopic circuits onto silicon. Helium is used because it excels at absorbing and dissipating that heat, preventing defects and keeping production viable. Without it, yields fall, costs rise, and output slows.

Blocking Qatar’s helium exports (Qatar sits on the world’s largest single natural gas field) means that the price of helium will skyrocket anyway but repeated Iranian drone attacks on Ras Laffan, the world’s largest liquefied natural gas plant, state-owned QatarGas reported “extensive” damage that will take years to repair and cut annual helium exports by 14%. That means helium exports will continue to be 14% lower even if the Straits are reopened. 

This is already disastrous for microchip manufacturers. Worse still, helium cannot be stockpiled like oil. It leaks, it evaporates, and within weeks it’s gone. There are no strategic reserves to fall back on. This is a supply chain that only works if it keeps moving.  The clock is ticking on the helium in factories around the world. 

Continue reading »
Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged | 1 Comment
Caron Lindsay

Updated: Should Lib Dems change our line on Trump?

By Caron Lindsay | Wed 8th April 2026 - 9:25 am

So, we can breathe again. For a few days at least.

But it’s more likely than not that we will be back up at the top of this hill again in a fortnight.

And if Trump’s behaviour over the tariffs is repeated, he’ll up the ante with even more offensive language and we’ll go from deadline to deadline.

To see the leader of the free world openly threatening genocide (“A civilisation will die tonight”) and war crimes attacking civilian infrastructure was horrifying.

The bit that made me gulp was when the White House denied that he was planning to use nuclear weapons. I lived through a fair chunk of the Cold War. I was too young for the existential terror of the Cuban Missile Crisis but I never felt that we were likely to experience the Four Minute Warning imminently however frightening the Protect and Survive videos were.

I’m wondering if the Lib Dems should develop what we are saying in response to a President who is threatening the unthinkable. Ed Davey could never be accused of being timid on Trump but our response to his expletive laden rant on Easter Sunday was two days late and issued at pretty much the same time as the Labour Government announced it would do as we were asking.

UPDATE: I have had my wrist slapped for the above for missing Ed’s comment put out on social media on Sunday evening so it is only fair to add it in here.

Should we be calling for the US Ambassador to be dragged in to Downing Street and given an absolute carpetting? Should we not be calling for the UK Government to introduce a whole list of sanctions, in concert with our European partners, if Trump goes any further? The US is a rogue state now and should be treated like one.

We should certainly renew our calls for the King’s State visit to the States at the end of this month to be at the very least postponed. It would not be a good look for our head of state to be receiving hospitality at potentially the same time as Trump is threatening or even committing war crimes?

Continue reading »
Posted in News | Also tagged , , and | 10 Comments
Tom Arms

Observations of an Expat: War Powers

By Tom Arms | Sat 28th March 2026 - 9:37 am

America’s NATO allies are—according to Donald Trump—”cowards” for failing to join his war in Iran. He later added that the US would “never forget” the position of the Europeans at this “critical juncture” in world history.

Trump’s anti- NATO rants reveal an astonishing ignorance of the legal and political obstacles facing other world leaders who want to wage an ill- conceived and poorly executed war which threatens to escalate and plunge the world into economic depression.

It is not entirely clear how, but Trump alone of the world’s democracies appears to ride roughshod over international and domestic laws to wage a dangerous war.

America’s Founding Fathers foresaw the possibility that a dangerously hubristic individual might one day occupy the White House. That is why Article One of the US constitution gives Congress – not the president—the power to declare war.

There are, however, get-outs for a belligerent president to respond quickly to sudden attacks. For a start the Founding Fathers changed the wording of Article One from “make war” to “declare war.” The change was meant to allow the president to respond to a sudden attack—but not to initiate.

In the wake of the Vietnam War, the president’s war powers were restricted further with the 1973 War Powers Act. This legislation instructs the president to inform Congress within 48 hours of the start of military action. If Congress fails to approve the action then troops have to be withdrawn 60 days. There is room for a further 30-day extension if required—but that’s it.

Congress also has the power of the purse which means that it can simply refuse funds to finance the fighting. The Iran War is costing $1 billion a day which is coming out of the existing defense budget. Tump, however, is said to be planning to ask Congress for an additional $200 billion.

Continue reading »
Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged and | 4 Comments
Mark Valladares

Welcome to my day: 23 March 2026 – a gentle tip of a toe into the icy water?

By Mark Valladares | Mon 23rd March 2026 - 7:30 am

It’s been a long time since I last wrote one of these. In truth, I’ve not been entirely in the right frame of mind to do so, not quite as engaged as I might be. But there’s a lot happening in the world, and Liberal Democrat Voice is the place for Liberal Democrats and others of similar mind to discuss them, so here I am, bright-eyed and bushy-tailed on a springtime Monday morning.

I guess that the most pressing order of business is whether or not the United Kingdom is being drawn irrevocably into a war not of our making. What is the difference between attack and defence, and who does that really matter to? The Iranian political leadership aren’t exactly going to be referring to international law if they define Britain as a combatant, regardless of what Keir Starmer or anyone else in our Government claim, yet we have a moral responsibility to protect those under fire across the region and to extract those British nationals trapped in the Gulf through no fault of their own.

But, regardless of what view you take as to our level of involvement, one thing that is abundantly clear is that reliance on fossil fuels extracted in less than entirely friendly nations is a risk that a nation like the United Kingdom simply should not be taking. Fuel security is going to an issue, whether we address it collectively with our European neighbours or by upping our game in terms of home-based renewables.

And we’re not alone in facing that challenge, as Gerben-Jan Gerbrandy MEP, the Dutch Chair of Renew Europe’s working group on sustainability and structural policies said a week ago:

European citizens are feeling the consequences of higher energy prices directly in their pockets. European leaders have to quit being in denial. We need to act decisively to reduce our dependence on energy imports: invest in clean energy, expand electricity grids and make homes for energy efficient.

It’s another reason why Reform UK’s opposition to renewable energy is yet another reminder that they don’t want a strong and independent United Kingdom, but a vassal state to whichever strongman they’re cosying up to this week.

Continue reading »
Posted in Site news | Also tagged | 9 Comments

The Cry of a British-Iranian Lib Dem Woman

By Sahar Irani | Tue 10th March 2026 - 8:37 am

“I’ll call you once I get changed,” I told my sister. “Got absolutely soaked.” She said she was sorry I’d got cold and wet. “It was water, not bullets,” I replied. She cried.

That afternoon in Munich, I had joined over one million Iranians and their supporters worldwide to remember the tens of thousands massacred by the Islamic Republic on 8 and 9 January this year. Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi had called on all who stand with Iranians to come together on a Global Action Day for Iran on Valentine’s Day, which also fell on the 40th day after the massacre. In Iranian culture, the 40th day after a death is a solemn threshold, when family and friends gather to mourn. This time, Iranians danced in defiance, sang instead of weeping, and told each other that freedom is closer than it has ever been.

In Munich alone, police estimated that 250,000 people had gathered to demand the fall of the regime. The following Monday, Iranian lawmaker Javad Hosseinikia called on the Foreign Ministry to expel Germany’s ambassador in Tehran in retaliation. The regime’s fury only confirmed that these demonstrations are working.

Continue reading »
Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged and | 6 Comments
Anne-Marie Simpson

The UK must not become complicit in another illegal war — Nor distracted from Israel’s continued crimes in Gaza and the West Bank

By Anne-Marie Simpson | Sun 8th March 2026 - 12:30 pm

As Liberal Democrat Friends of Palestine, we unequivocally condemn the latest unilateral and unlawful US-Israeli military action in Iran and urges the UK Government not to be complicit by allowing the US to use British military bases to attack Iran. 

The Iranian people have a right to live free from a brutal regime; however, regime change from the skies can only unleash more bloodshed and regional mayhem – particularly when one of the instigators is an indicted war criminal like Benjamin Netanyahu. The devastating human cost is already evident, including in the killing of 165 Iranian schoolgirls and staff in a strike on a girls’ primary school in Minab.

Marco Rubio has suggested that the US was forced into attacking Iran after being informed that Israel planned to launch strikes first. Under the shadow of these attacks, Israel has stepped up its illegal activities in the State of Palestine, including by closing aid crossings into Gaza and sealing off checkpoints in the unlawfully occupied West Bank. This has been accompanied by a spike in settler violence.

Continue reading »
Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged , , and | 5 Comments
Tom Arms

Observations of an ex pat: Iran

By Tom Arms | Sat 7th March 2026 - 7:20 pm

Iran and the US have been on a collision course since 1979 when the radical Islamic state was founded and 44 US diplomats were taken hostage.

But why now? But also, what are the who’s, what’s, how’s, when’s and where’s of the current car crash and its regional, national and global repercussions.

Who first—the US and Israel. America did not call on its traditional NATO allies. It did not go to the United Nations to seek legal sanctions. The United States did not even bother to inform the G7 countries. The United States acted unilaterally. In fact, Donald Trump acted unilaterally within the US government machine because he did not bother to consult members of Congress let alone seek congressional approval.

The only country that America allied itself with was Israel. It should be noted that this was the first time (other than the air attack in June) that US and Israeli troops have fought together. In the first and second Gulf Wars the US refused Israeli help and there was no Israeli participation in Afghanistan.

There was a very good reason for this. Arab governments may be prepared to accept Israel, but most of their populations remain implacably opposed to the existence of the state of the Jewish state. When Israeli and US forces fight side by side it alienates America from Arab public opinion and shakes the thrones of the Arab monarchies. Iran is unpopular with Arabs, but Israel is reprehensible.

The why and when are linked. Iran is the weakest it has been since the Islamic revolutionary government came to power 47 years ago. Years of sanctions have significantly weakened the economy. Economic hardship coupled with political repression has created waves of riots. Only weeks ago Iranian government shot tens of thousands of protesters demanding an end to the theocratic regime. And finally, the Iranian military has been weakened by the Gaza War and Operation Midnight Hammer which damaged—but clearly did not “obliterate” – Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities.

Continue reading »
Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged | 9 Comments
Caron Lindsay

Ed Davey: “The UK can’t be dragged into another protracted Middle Eastern war by a US President”

By Caron Lindsay | Sun 1st March 2026 - 8:12 am

I was relieved that a long drive to the rural Highlands of Scotland prevented me sitting in front of a news channel with my head in my hands for most of yesterday. The sight of Donald Trump in a baseball cap looking the exact opposite of dignity and statesmanlike calm did nothing to quell my anxiety levels.

It is absolutely clear that the Regime in Iran was awful – illiberal, disgustingly misogynist with no care at all for the human rights and freedom of its people. It’s hard to see how the actions yesterday helped the plight of the Iranian …

Continue reading »
Posted in News | Also tagged | 12 Comments
Mo Waqas

This is how wars start

By Mo Waqas | Mon 23rd February 2026 - 9:55 am

I’ve watched the images of two American aircraft carriers moving toward the Middle East and I don’t feel reassured.

I feel uneasy.

Let me say something clearly before anyone tries to misrepresent this: I despise the Iranian regime. I despise what it does to its own people. I despise its repression of women, its crushing of dissent, its morality police, its execution of protesters, its export of proxy militias, and its cynical use of religion to entrench power. The Iranian people deserve better than the system that rules them.

But despising a regime does not mean losing the ability to think strategically.

The USS Abraham Lincoln is already operating in the Arabian Sea. The USS Gerald R. Ford, the most advanced aircraft carrier ever built, has been ordered into the region. These are 100,000-ton warships, roughly 1,100 feet long, carrying more than 4,500 people each. Floating cities. Human beings. Sailors with families.

They are symbols of American power. Symbols can become targets.

Iran is not Iraq in 2003. It is not Libya. It is not Syria. This is a regime that survived eight years of total war against Saddam Hussein. During the Iran–Iraq War, hundreds of thousands died. Cities burned. Chemical weapons were used. And still, the state endured.

For 47 years, the Islamic Republic has prepared for confrontation with the United States. That is not hyperbole it is embedded in its military doctrine and national identity.

Now place two aircraft carriers within reach of its missile forces, near the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway barely 33 kilometres wide at its narrowest point. One of the most militarised chokepoints on earth.

Iran possesses medium-range ballistic missiles such as the Shahab-3, with a range of roughly 1,300 kilometres. It fields the Khorramshahr, assessed at up to around 2,000 kilometres. It has unveiled the Fattah-1, described by Tehran as hypersonic, with a claimed range of about 1,400 kilometres. It deploys anti-ship cruise missiles. It manufactures Shahed-136 drones designed for saturation attacks,launched in waves, intended to overwhelm.

Continue reading »
Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged and | 15 Comments
Andrew Chandler

When will Iran’s ‘Berlin Wall moment’ come?

By Andrew Chandler | Thu 22nd January 2026 - 3:41 pm

So many have drawn parallels with the of the protests in Iran as a Berlin Wall moment, that rare historical instant when fear dissolves, momentum accelerates, and a people suddenly realise that the power looming over them has already begun to rot from within. For a brief and intoxicating period, the metaphor appeared to hold. But nostalgia and yearning can be a contemptible form of comfort.

As soon as it spread, it encountered something far older and far more predictable, as the familiar reflexes of a failing tyranny reasserted themselves through organised brutality, exemplary violence, and the calculated production of fear. Streets were not quieted through persuasion or compromise but cleared through blood and terror by the Iranian regime.

Now early confidence seemed to have smouldered within the very flames of the fires engulfing Iran, consumed by the heat of the moment it once fed. I think we all hoped for this to the Berlin Wall moment in its predictability. However, the cracks in Islamic Republic, does now seem to suggest a weakening in its durability.

A measure of truth in this recalibration but taken too far it risks mistaking endurance for strength and repression for stability.

The contrasts with the past are real and cannot be ignored. Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi, authoritarian though he was, ultimately did decide to do a departure over mass killing, while the clerical establishment and the Revolutionary Guards have shown no such hesitation. The opposition of the late 1970s was more unified, more organisationally embedded, and more capable of sustaining pressure, and members of the ruling elite could plausibly imagine lives beyond power. Today’s leadership, many directly implicated in violence and repression, confronts a starker calculation in which survival and domination appear inseparable.

Yet even these differences obscure a more consequential one.

Continue reading »
Posted in Op-eds | 3 Comments
Jack Meredith

Iran: back the people, isolate the regime

By Jack Meredith | Sun 18th January 2026 - 12:30 pm

Britain should stand with Iran’s protesters, not the regime. That means targeted pressure, democratic solidarity, and practical steps that actually bite.

Here’s what those practical steps should look like:

Proscribe the IRGC

We must treat the Revolutionary Guard as the terrorist apparatus it is. This means proscribing the group and closing loopholes that allow intimidation and fundraising networks to operate in Britain.

Expand targeted sanctions and sanction evasion

Britain must pursue the asset freezes and travel bans of regime officials, security leaders, and enablers of the regime. To ensure these sanctions hit, greater emphasis must be placed on cracking down on attempts to evade them, including but not limited to shipping, insurers, shell companies, and financial networks facilitating revenue flows.

Supporting communication access

The UK government must work to ensure internet resilience across Iran by enabling access to satellite internet via lawful procurement routes, coordinating with international partners, and supporting trusted NGOs involved in distribution. The UK must also look into the use and funding of circumvention services that allow Iranians to continue using the internet, like Psiphon and Tor bridges. We must also look to pay for this infrastructure to keep it resilient against regime tampering and develop a rapid adaptation plan when the regime blocks a route.

Enabling NGOs to get the truth out

Continue reading »
Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged | 7 Comments
Gavin Stollar

Why Iran’s protesters matter for peace in the Middle East

By Gavin Stollar | Sat 17th January 2026 - 2:35 pm

Across Iran, brave men and women are once again risking their freedom – and their lives – to protest against one of the most repressive regimes in the world. Their demands are clear and unambiguous: basic liberty, accountability, and an end to rule by fear. These aspirations should resonate deeply with liberals everywhere. They also have far-reaching implications beyond Iran’s borders, including for the prospects of peace in the Middle East.

The Islamic Republic of Iran is not simply a domestic authoritarian state. It is a dangerous and insidious Islamist actor whose ideology and actions have destabilised the region for decades. The protesters on Iran’s streets understand that their struggle is not only about social or economic grievances, but about ending a system that represses its own people while exporting extremism abroad.

A fundamental change in Iran would be transformative for regional stability. Tehran has consistently worked to undermine any realistic prospect of peace between Israelis and Palestinians, not out of concern for Palestinian welfare, but because reconciliation would weaken its influence. Through sustained financial, military and ideological support for Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis, Iran has fuelled conflict, entrenched rejectionism and prolonged violence.

The removal of this malign influence would not in itself resolve the Israeli–Palestinian conflict, but it would eliminate one of its most determined spoilers. Without Iranian backing, armed groups dedicated to perpetual conflict would be significantly weakened, and the political space for dialogue, compromise and co-existence would expand. A Middle East less shaped by Tehran’s revolutionary agenda would be one with greater opportunity for peace.

Continue reading »
Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged and | 7 Comments
Jack Meredith

Iran: no more excuses

By Jack Meredith | Thu 15th January 2026 - 1:28 pm

The Islamic Republic of Iran’s theocratic dictatorship has, so far, murdered at least 2,400 protestors. That is the latest report from human rights groups monitoring the situation. This is on top of the expected execution of 26-year-old Erfan Soltani for the crime of exercising his right to protest peacefully.

As previously stated in my piece, “In praise of destabilising tyranny“, it has been incredibly encouraging to see and hear Ed Davey be so vocal about his support for the Iranian protestors, as well as hearing the UK government voice its support and Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch, too. This is an issue that transcends political boundaries and strikes at the heart of our principles: democracy, human rights, and freedom.

It is with that same sentiment that I believe, on the matter of Iran, Donald Trump is right to strongarm the theocratic regime into backing down on executing citizens, and openly supporting Iranian citizens.

A jarring statement, for sure. There is so much that Trump has done and is doing that is beyond contempt, and he is by no means a good man. But multiple moralities can co-exist in the same space: Trump is wrong for his desire to capture Greenland, his isolationist approach to handling Venezuela, his appeasement of Russia, his multiple felonies, on top of literally everything else he has said and done. But on this particular issue, when it comes to tackling the Ayatollah’s dictatorship, he is right, and we would be right to stand with him.

Continue reading »
Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged | 3 Comments
Jack Meredith

In praise of destabilising tyranny

By Jack Meredith | Mon 12th January 2026 - 10:25 am

As we speak, for the 15th consecutive day, Iranians are protesting the Islamic Republic and its tyrannical leader, Ayatollah Khamenei.

Iran was once a society that embraced egalitarianism, was open to working with the West, and boasted natural resources that made countries like Japan reliant on partnerships to secure national energy security. The Pahlavi dynasty, albeit an absolute monarchy, oversaw this modernisation against a backdrop of press repression and the use of secret police to suppress opposition against its rule.

While some claimed victory over the Monarchy following the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the reality of what this theocratic regime has delivered upon Iran is beyond inhumane. In 2025 alone, 1,922 executions were carried out by the Islamic Republic, with Ayatollah Khamenei threatening the use of the death penalty against protestors.

Continue reading »
Posted in Europe / International and Op-eds | 18 Comments
Tom Arms

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 11th January 2026 - 9:38 am

USA – Minneapolis

The shooting of young mother Renee Good this week in Minneapolis has further exposed the divisions in a fractured American society and President Trump’s determination to exacerbate rather than heal them.

Anyone who watches one of the many videos—or reads the eyewitness accounts—can only conclude that Ms Good was murdered by an ICE agent.

She was clearly driving away from a confrontation with the agents who were in Minneapolis as part of a politically motivated round-up of ethnic Somalis. As she was turning away from the armed agents, one of them fired through the car window and shot Ms Good in the head. A doctor then rushed forward to try and administer first aid but was blocked by the agents.

President Trump, Homeland Security Secretary Kirsti Noem, Vice President J.D. Vance and Attorney General Pam Bondi have rushed forward to claim that the agent fired in self-defense because Ms Good was trying to run him over. They have also claimed—without any evidence—that Ms Good was a professional left-wing agitator. Vice President Vance has gone so far as to falsely claim that the ICE agents are protected by absolute immunity because they are federal agents.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt increased the attack on Good even more by telling White House correspondents: “The deadly incident that took place in Minnesota yesterday occurred as a result of a larger, sinister left-wing movement that has spread across our country, where our brave men and women of federal law enforcement are under organized attack.”

The administration’s line has been picked up and repeated parrot-fashion by Fox News and the Republicans in Congress. Democrats and the bulk of the rest of the media have attacked ICE and the administration. The people of Minneapolis have taken to the streets in their thousands. Their action is being mirrored in other US cities. In Portland, Oregon two more people have been wounded.

President Trump had a personal message for ICE agents in the wake of the shootings: “It’s time to get rough.”

Iran

The Iranian authorities have shut down the country’s internet. The reason is quite simple: they don’t want people—inside and outside Iran—to know how many protesters they are about to kill.

And they are killing them. After protests in 2019 several hundred protesters ended up in their coffins. Human rights organisations reckon that 40 were killed before the internet was shut. The BBC has confirmed 20 of the deaths.

The country’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khameinei, has said that the thousands who have taken to the streets of Tehran, and at least 50 other towns and cities, are a “bunch of vandals” trying “to please” the US.

Continue reading »
Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged and | 33 Comments
Tom Arms

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 29th June 2025 - 8:30 am

Iran

The Mullahs have brought Iran to the brink of disaster. Their theocratic Islamic anti-Israeli, anti-American crusading state has sown the seeds which its people are now reaping.

The string of proxies which comprised Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” has collapsed. Syria’s President Assad has fled to Moscow. Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis have been militarily and politically castrated. Defense experts believe that the regime has already fired half of its ballistic missiles.

Whether or not the regime’s enriched uranium was rescued from Trump’s “bunker-busting bombs” is irrelevant. The important point is that Israel now controls Iranian airspace and American bombers could attack unmolested.

The first responsibility of any government is to provide protection against attack. The Mullahs have signally failed in that primary task.

On top of that economic sanctions have brought the country to its financial knees and women and young people have refused to accept the strict codes of Sharia law. Their rebellion against imposed social norms is demonstrated by the fact that Iran is one of the world’s major consumers of pop culture.

The country is therefore ripe for regime change. In fact, it has been headed gradually in that direction for years as successive elections have seen “progressive” candidates garner an increasing share of the vote. A good example was last year’s victory in presidential elections of Masoud Pezeshkian over the Islamic candidate.

Exactly what might replace the clerics is unknown. The Shah’s son, Reza Pahlavi, has offered himself as a transitional leader until democratic elections can be held. The exiled women’s rights leader Masih Alinejad has also been mentioned as well as Nobel Peace Prize laureate Shirin Ebadi. Other possibilities are leading technocrats from the Katami or Rouhani Administration and, of course, any military leader who has not been assassinated by the Israelis.

Opportunity awaits all of above—and more.

Iranian regime change would be disastrous for the cause of global Jihad. It would also be very bad news for Russia and China.

Vladimir Putin already suffered one Middle East setback with the collapse of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. A collapse of the Mullahs would be even worse as Russia shares a maritime border (the Caspian Sea) with Iran and has a long history of involvement in Persian affairs.

The Russians have been carefully cultivating relations with Israel for decades. Moscow advised Tehran are how to evade Western sanctions and the two countries have been beefing up their respective infrastructures to improve north-south trade through Eurasia.

After the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Iran became a major supplier to Moscow of Shahed drones which are now being produced under license in Russia. In January of this year the two countries signed a major security partnership which included the sharing of intelligence and military technology. It, however, stopped well short of a military alliance.

Iran is essential to China’s policy in the Middle East. To demonstrate this, Beijing in 2021 signed a 25-year strategic partnership with Tehran and agreed to invest $400 billion in the country.

China is almost totally dependent on oil from the Gulf for its oil and gas energy needs. To guarantee the flow of oil it must diversify away from the pro-American suppliers of Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar and the UAE. Iran enables them to do this. As a result, China ignores western sanctions and imports 20 percent of its oil and gas requirement from Iran.

Iran is also the Middle East link in China’s ambitious Belt/Road trade network.

Its staunch anti-Americanism is also useful to Beijing at international forums such as the UN. China reckons that Iran could be important in re-shaping international institutions so that they have a pro-China bias instead of the current pro-Western bias.

Finally, China’s brokering of a diplomatic rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia has allowed Beijing to protect itself as a peaceful player in the region in contrast to America’s military-based power.

An upset in New York

Continue reading »
Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged , and | 15 Comments
Mathew Hulbert

Mathew on Monday: Why are we sitting on the fence on America’s strikes on Iran?

By Mathew Hulbert | Mon 23rd June 2025 - 4:37 pm

Sometimes our party or, at least, its leadership, leaves me with my head in my hands. This past weekend and, indeed, today is one such occasion.

On Wednesday at Prime Minister’s Questions, or deputy PMQs as it was as Starmer was at the G7 in Canada, our own deputy leader Daisy Cooper reminded the House of Commons of the Lib Dems brave and right leadership of the opposition to the Iraq War back in 2003 and warned against the UK once again backing another United States misadventure in the Middle East.

Well all I can ask is: what happened between Wednesday and Sunday? Did we think the UK should oppose action against Iran when it was only a theoretical idea? Has Ed overruled Daisy? Or have our leadership as a collective had a case of the jitters and (as always, some might argue) are they running scared of Tory voters in the shires?

The statement our leader put out yesterday managed to basically use up quite a number of words to absolutely nothing at all.

Do we support the action? No answer.

Do we oppose it? No answer.

We are sitting on the fence, yet again, when we could be, in the spirit of Charles Kennedy, leading the opposition to a President of the United States who is chaotic, unhinged, and who is riding roughshod over Congress and the usual way things are conducted.

A convicted felon who cares not one jot about checks, balances, and due process, who cares only about himself and his agenda. He apparently doesn’t even care about his own MAGA base to whom, pre election, he made very clear his opposition to American military participation in other people’s wars and who stridently made clear that, in his view, America should not act as the world’s policeman.

Then again, Trump is using the American military against U.S. citizens using their first amendment right to protest his disgraceful stances on immigration including ‘deporting’ U.S. citizens (which is rightly being challenged in the courts).

Continue reading »
Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged and | 11 Comments
Adrian Sanders

Here we go again…

By Adrian Sanders | Mon 23rd June 2025 - 12:53 pm

I have woken most mornings since President Trump came to power with a feeling of foreboding as I switch on the radio in the morning to discover his latest announcements. Add to that a sense of déjà vu when events in the Middle East top the news and I can’t say I start the day in the best of spirits.

Back in 2002 an American President was convinced that regime change in a Middle Eastern country would put a stop to terrorism carried out by so called Islamic groups and avenge the atrocity that occurred on the 11th September 2001, better …

Continue reading »
Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged | 4 Comments
The Voice

Ed Davey: we must work for diplomatic solution

By The Voice | Sun 22nd June 2025 - 10:55 am

Ed Davey has commented on the US attacks on Iran:

Iran’s nuclear ambitions pose a grave threat to regional stability and global security. That threat can only truly be eliminated through robust diplomacy.

Following the US strikes, it is essential that we work to deescalate the conflict and achieve that diplomatic solution.

Do you think this is the right approach? Should he be more vocal in opposition to Trump’s actions?

let us know your views in the comments.

Posted in News | Also tagged | 26 Comments
Tom Arms

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 22nd June 2025 - 10:31 am

 

Trump

MAGA is divided. Its strength in the past that it has been united behind one man—Donald Trump.

Whatever he said was taken as gospel. Whatever he did was heroic.

But now there is a possibility that he may decide to join forces with Israel and drop a bunker-busting bomb on Iran’s underground nuclear enrichment facilities. As a result some of the shine is coming off MAGA’s great leader.

“This has not been thought through,” said Trump’s former campaign manager Steve Bannon. He added: “Stopping forever wars is one of the three planks of the MAGA Movement.”

Tucker Carlsson is known as Trump’s lead trumpeter. “I am afraid this (the US bombing of Iran) will see the end of the American Empire,” he said.

And then there is loony MAGA to the core Marjorie Taylor Greene: “Forever wars, intervention, regime change, put America last, kill innocent people, are making us broke and will ultimately lead to our destruction.”

Then on the other side are figures such as senators Lindsay Graham and Mitch McConnell. They have both called on the president to support Israel and strike Iran while it is at its weakest. But then they are Old Guard rather than MAGA.

Iran

Iran desperately needs friends. Unfortunately for Tehran they appear to be backward in coming forward.

The two most likely candidates for a supporting role are China and Russia. The Russians have been the grateful recipients of Iranian-made drones which are making an impact in the Ukraine War.

Moscow was quick to condemn the Israeli attack which it said was unprovoked and in breach of the UN Charter. The Russians also accused Moscow of undermining diplomatic efforts to persuade Iran to peacefully abandon any nuclear ambitions.

That all sounds very warlike, and in January of this year Tehran and Moscow signed a 20-year “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” which covered a wide range of interests including, defense, intelligence sharing, nuclear technology and energy. The agreement, however, does not commit Russia to come to Iran’s defense if the latter is attacked.

On Thursday Moscow closed all of its diplomatic offices in Iran and withdrew its entire diplomatic staff. They were needed if Putin was going to provide substantive aid.

China—in total disregard of sanctions—gets 20 percent of its oil from Iran. In 2021 Tehran agreed to become a key link in China’s Belt/Road Initiative. In 2023 China brokered a diplomatic rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

China wants to increase its influence in the Middle East and its sees Iran as its Trojan horse in achieving that goal. Unfortunately it took four days for President Xi Jinping to get around to even making a statement on Israel’s attack. And then it was to offer China’s good offices as a peace broker rather than as no-holds barred Iranian supporter.

The fact is, Tehran is a rogue state. It exports terrorism and destabilises the world order. Few people outside of Iran would grieve its demise and many inside would also be glad to see the fall of the theocracy. But that could only make the mullahs more dangerous as they are backed into a corner with no option but to lash out in return for a guaranteed ticket to an Islamic paradise.

Gaza

Continue reading »
Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged and | 1 Comment
Tom Arms

Observations of an Expat: End of Empire

By Tom Arms | Sat 21st June 2025 - 10:30 am

Trump’s metaphorical coin-tossing decision-making over the bombing of Iran is the clear result of imperial over-reach cloaked in dangerous isolationism.

But whichever way the president decides, the fact that he has to sit in the Oval Office with a handful of yes men and women underscores the fragility of American foreign policy and the rapid decline of a great power.

Previous post-war presidents could rely on an elaborate and carefully constructed network of alliances, treaties and international laws to help with the decision-making. The decisions were not always right. But if they were wrong the burden of the blame could be shared and recovery was easier.

Trump suffers from hubris – aka excessive pride – has extended that hubris to a significant portion of the American electorate and wrapped it in a cloak of isolationism. This in turn has led to the withdrawal – or threatened withdrawal – from alliances, treaty obligations, and international and domestic law.

In 1987 the British historian Paul Kennedy wrote the seminal geopolitical history “The Rise and Fall of Great Powers.” In it he set down the axiom that great powers decline when their military commitments outstrip their economic base—a process he called “imperial overstretch.”

Before Trump the United States appeared to be set to avoid the Kennedy Trap. For a start the fount of its power was liberal democratic values rather than the naked greed which drove the imperial age. It then concentrated on forming alliances and diplomatic cooperation with the countries – Western Europe, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Canada… –  with which it shared those values.

Those countries in return provided military bases and support. MAGA Republicans claim that America’s allies have exploited American goodwill. That is true. But they have also delivered the facilities that have provided America with a global reach which in turn has increased its trading and economic power.

Trump has rejected liberal democratic values and attacked the countries and political leaders that continue to espouse them. He has rejected the rule of law at home and abroad. Trump is a 17th century mercantilist who is governed by the belief that might is right. Billionaires are mighty so they must be right. America is mighty therefore it must be right.

Continue reading »
Posted in Op-eds | 8 Comments
Jack Meredith

Please sir, may I have no war?

By Jack Meredith | Thu 19th June 2025 - 11:31 am

The presidency of Donald Trump has, thus far, been defined by his failure to fulfil his election promise to de-escalate global conflicts.

Most recently, Trump has flirted with the idea of the US entering into the Israel-Iran conflict, commenting, “I may do it, I may not do it” when questioned. To put it simply, this is not the language of de-escalation.

But the next logical question after “Will the US get involved?” can only be “Will it call on the UK to join?”. This decision will come down to Keir Starmer, who will either have the choice of authorising the UK’s involvement or putting the decision to a parliamentary vote, the latter being the route taken by former Prime Minister Tony Blair regarding the Iraq War.

There is, however, a third option: the Wilson approach.

Former Prime Minister Harold Wilson decided to withhold the UK military’s involvement in the Vietnam War, a decision echoed by his successor, Edward Heath. While both provided support through materials and rhetorical encouragement, neither leader engaged directly.

Keir Starmer will likely face this choice in the coming weeks and months. Either he will have the UK join Trump in engaging in war, or he will withhold British military support. It is his moment to show whether Wilson or Blair inspires his leadership.

I hope that he chooses the former, for all our sakes.

Continue reading »
Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged , and | 12 Comments
Mark Valladares

13 June 2025 – Friday’s press releases

By Mark Valladares | Sun 15th June 2025 - 3:04 pm
  • Davey: International leadership is needed now
  • Davey urges Starmer to forge new UK-Canada defence pact to reduce reliance on Trump
  • Greene to Tories: It’s Kemi-geddon
  • Greene: Badenoch might as well say vote Lib Dem

Davey: International leadership is needed now

Following Israel’s strikes in Iran overnight, Liberal Democrat Leader Ed Davey said:

People across the UK and the world will be fearing the break-out of widespread regional conflict in the Middle East, following Israel’s strikes overnight.

The UK must work with allies to contain Iran’s nuclear ambitions through diplomacy, not war.

The UK Government should urge both Israel and Iran not to do anything that will escalate the situation any further.

International leadership is needed now.

Davey urges Starmer to forge new UK-Canada defence pact to reduce reliance on Trump

Liberal Democrat Leader Ed Davey has called on the Prime Minister to forge a new UK-Canada defence pact, to strengthen national security and boost the economy, while reducing both countries’ reliance on Donald Trump’s US administration.

It comes as Keir Starmer is expected to arrive in Canada ahead of the G7 summit beginning this weekend.

This week the Trump administration said it would review the submarine deal with the UK and Australia, saying the security pact must fit its “America First” agenda.

Liberal Democrat Leader Ed Davey said:

Trump has shown his disregard for our collective security time and time again – not least this week, displaying total indifference to his traditional allies by threatening the future of the AUKUS defence agreement.

We should work with our Commonwealth ally Canada as it joins the UK in increasing defence spending, but also looks to move away from its reliance on US military exports.

That is why I am urging the Prime Minister to propose a new, bilateral UK-Canada defence pact at the G7 this weekend, making us more secure while also boosting British manufacturing.

Greene to Tories: It’s Kemi-geddon

Speaking as the Scottish Conservative conference gets underway at Murrayfield in Edinburgh, Scottish Liberal Democrat MSP Jamie Greene said:

Continue reading »
Posted in News, Press releases and Scotland | Also tagged , , , , and | 1 Comment
Tom Arms

Observations of an Expat: Bombing Iran

By Tom Arms | Sat 14th June 2025 - 10:03 am

There is no safe way to bomb an Iranian nuclear reactor.

This is especially true of Iran’s facilities as the key ones are buried deep underground and heavily protected.

The more impregnable the target. The bigger the bomb required to destroy it. The greater the risk of a nuclear disaster.

This is why Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), quickly called a press conference when he heard of Israel’s attacks on Iran’s nuclear power plants.

Nuclear sites, he said, should never be attacked. He added: “Any military action that jeopardises the safety and security of nuclear facilities risks grave consequences for the people of Iran, the region and beyond.”

The 1986 Chernobyl Disaster resulted in radioactive dust carried to a dozen European countries. Forests died in Scandinavia. Fish stocks were polluted and restrictions on sheep grazing were in place in Wales and the English Lake District for decades. A total of 2,600 square kilometres around Chernobyl has been closed.

Iran has five nuclear facilities – Natanza, Fordow, Isfahan, Arabk and Bushehr. The ones suspected of producing nuclear warheads are Natanza and Fordow. Natanza’s reactors are buried 40-50 metres underground. Fordow’s are also buried deep inside a mountain.

If one of them is severely damaged than the Shamal wind would blow radioactive particles towards Iraq, Syria, the Persian Gulf, Lebanon and even Israel.

Continue reading »
Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged | 14 Comments
Andy Daer

There are ways to achieve peace in the Middle East

By Andy Daer | Thu 7th November 2024 - 9:33 am

Many Israelis think they face ‘annihilation’ by Iran and their proxies, and that this means their wars in Gaza and Lebanon fall outside the boundaries set by the international rules of war.  The fear of annihilation didn’t come out of nowhere, but although there has been some fiery rhetoric about Israel’s right to exist over the years, Iran doesn’t seriously believe it could destroy Israel, especially given that it’s backed by the US.  The ‘existential’ distress Israelis feel is more likely an expression of the deep insecurity affecting many Jews around the world, and it originates not from their treatment by Arabs or Iranians, but from centuries of racial abuse and persecution in Europe.  Understanding and accepting this as the underlying cause of the unrestrained assaults on Gaza and Lebanon ought to be fundamental to the peace process.

As things stand, Israel’s Prime Minister won’t listen to calls for restraint, even from the UN or international courts, not because he is mad, or is fighting to stave off corruption charges, or is bent on destroying hopes for a two-state solution, but because he knows that many Israelis think they are in fight for their survival, which on their view means all the normal rules go out of the window.

The fear of annihilation touches a deep place in the human psyche.  When psychoanalysts discuss the war in Gaza they speak of paranoia brought on by Israelis never being allowed to forget the Holocaust, and how that can make them seek refuge in feelings of omnipotence.  The feeling of omnipotence is a delusional state of mind, but it must have been a very seductive delusion to fall back on after the  horrific Hamas attack on October 7 last year.

Most outside observers judge the Israeli response to the threat from Hamas as having been wildly disproportionate, and think it has strayed far beyond its initial purpose – retaliation (or perhaps revenge) for the killing of so many Israeli civilians.  To most of us it’s clear that Netanyahu could end the war in Gaza and Lebanon and get the remaining hostages back simply by giving up on the idea of an enlarged ‘Greater Israel’ and conceding that the Palestinians have a right to their homeland in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, and Gaza.  Hamas, the Houthis, and Hezbollah have all said as much – that they would stop attacking Israel if it agreed to end the Occupation.  Jordan’s envoy to the UN has gone further and said the Arab states of the Middle East would guarantee Israel’s security if it ended the bombardment of Gaza and backed the two-state solution.

Continue reading »
Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged , and | 5 Comments
Tom Arms

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 20th October 2024 - 10:27 am

Middle East

Every geopolitical shift offers opportunities and dangers. The escalating war in the Middle East is no exception.

At the moment the world is focused on the dangers. But the opportunities are there as the major players realise the need to step back from the brink and consider measures that were hitherto unthinkable in order to avoid a catastrophe nobody wants.

The biggest opportunity could involve Iran’s nuclear weapons programme.

There is a strong body of opinion in the US and Israel that the best way to deal with Iran’s nuclear weapons programme is to destroy it. The problem with that is three-fold:
1- You cannot destroy the know-how
2- the necessary installations are deep underground, heavily protected and would probably require direct American involvement and
3- Destruction of Iran’s nuclear installations would only increase hatred of Israel and the US.

Many Israelis and Americans also fear that a religiously-zealous Iran would use nuclear weapons against Israel—and possibly the US—as soon as they acquire them.

Rubbish. The Iranians may be religious extremists, but they are not stupid. They know that they would be wiped out in any nuclear exchange.

To them a nuclear weapon is a deterrent against an Israeli—or possibly joint US-Israeli—nuclear or overwhelming conventional attack.

However, nuclear weapons do give Iran greater flexibility in any conventional scenario as any potential enemy would think twice about attacking a nuclear-armed Iran. This would mean a serious movement in the Middle East goalposts.

So how can the US (with Israel looming large in the background) and the Mullahs avoid escalation and a nuclear Iran. From the Iranian side, Washington would expect Tehran to immediately stop refining and testing missiles and enriching U-235 and converting it to fissile material. From the US-Israeli side, Iran would expect guarantees that Iran would not be attacked by either Israel or the US.

Iran is reckoned by the CIA to be seven months away from having THE bomb. An agreement could freeze development at the current level—or slightly more advanced– so that if it was attacked, Iran could quickly move to a nuclear capable position.

The above scenario is not impossible. According to intelligence sources, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini has not given the final go-ahead for nuclear weapons. He has also told newly-elected President Masoud Pazeshkian that he can resume nuclear negotiations with the five members of the Security Council and Germany.

There are other important tangential issues including: Iranian support for Russia’s war in Ukraine; Iranian support for Hezbollah and the Houthis; Israeli attacks on Hezbollah; Saudi and UAE attacks on the Houthis; the Syrian civil war; Western sanctions against Iran and Iran and China’s growing economic co-dependency.

All of —or some of—these issues could be dealt with as part of nuclear talks. Or nuclear talks could open the door to separate discussions on these problems.

European Union

British Foreign Secretary David Lammy has called it the “EU Reset.” It started this week with Lammy attending a regular meeting of EU foreign ministers in Luxembourg. The Foreign Office has promised more of the same.

The talks were on big global security issues—China, Russia, Ukraine, the Middle East, US elections—all those things on which it is very easy for the UK and EU to agree. Not on the agenda was the EU-UK 2020 Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) which continues to bedevil or threaten to bedevil EU-UK relations.

Continue reading »
Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged , and | 9 Comments
The Voice

Lib Dem MPs comment on Middle East escalation

By The Voice | Wed 2nd October 2024 - 9:22 am

If any of us aren’t pretty scared and worried by what is going on in the Middle East, we probably should be.

Lib Dem MPs have been reacting to events as Israel steps up its actions against Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran attacks Israel.

And all of this, at the heart, are people facing a humanitarian disaster, living in the most appalling conditions without food or shelter.

On Twitter this morning, Layla Moran said:

All my life my grandparents warned that if we didn’t achieve peace in Palestine it would risk wider war. With Iran’s actions overnight it seems we are inching closer to chaos rather than closure. I am so scared for my family and the future of the region. I pray I’m wrong to be.

On Iran’s attacks, Ed Davey said:

Liberal Democrats totally condemn Iran’s attacks on Israel. My thoughts are with all innocent civilians – in Israel and across the region – who are sheltering tonight.

The UK Government must do all it can to bring the region back from the brink of all out war, working closely with our allies. Too many innocent civilians have already been killed.

We must keep our focus on securing a lasting peace and a two state solution. Only diplomacy can deliver the security across the region that people so desperately need with the hostages home to their families and an end to the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

On Monday, Calum Miller, our new Foreign Affairs spokesperson wrote to Foreign Secretary David Lammy about the deepening crisis:

He said:

We must pursue the conditions for peace despite the bleak outlook. I’ll continue to urge the Government to adopt the proposals made by Liberal Democrats at our conference earlier this month.

Continue reading »
Posted in News | Also tagged , , and | Leave a comment
Advert

Recent Comments

  • David Le Grice
    Honestly our performance in Aberdeen south is Aberdeen south is an indictment of where our party is at. In 2010 it was one of our top target seats, we held the ...
  • nigel hunter
    UKcould keep special pre Brexit terms if it rejoined the EU----Michel Barnier says----Guardian article. Negotiations can achieve great things....
  • Ruth Bright
    Wow David, that's great....
  • David Warren
    I have just finished telephone canvassing in Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, moving onto Kinwarton ward in Stratford Upon Avon. Happy to help in future contests...
  • Noncoonformistradica
    "There was no social service support for unmarried mothers (the term always carried judgemental overtones)," I have a vague memory dating back to the early 1...