Trump’s war on Iran is impacting more than just the price of oil. It is also impacting fertiliser shipments, which, combined with the UK government decision to tax fertiliser (being introduced in January 2027) will cause food prices in the UK and around the world to increase – hence why the government needs to seriously start looking at food security. Although both are incredibly important, the increase in the cost of oil and food resulting from Trump-Netanyahu’s attack on Iran and the Iranian retaliation is well known. What is perhaps less covered is its impact on the export of helium.

At first glance, the lack of gas that makes your voice squeaky at children’s birthday parties may not seem like a big deal. But it is the foundation of the modern global economy. 

The impact this disruption of helium will have on the global tech industry was brought to my attention by a recent video by Phil Moorhouse. The Gulf States don’t just export oil, gas and annoying influencer videos but also helium, with Qatar exporting 30% of the global helium supply. 

The US economy, for all its supposed strength, has been leaning heavily on one thing: tech. AI. Last year, AI-related capital expenditures were the second-biggest driver in US GDP growth, but all that might be coming to an end now. I do think the overvalued tech sector in the States was going to burst anyway, but Trump’s war might have sped the process up and made it far worse. 

The reason for it is that the tech sector needs helium for the production of microchips – something that is already being impacted by higher energy costs caused by Trump’s war. Chip fabrication involves extreme heat, particularly when lasers etch microscopic circuits onto silicon. Helium is used because it excels at absorbing and dissipating that heat, preventing defects and keeping production viable. Without it, yields fall, costs rise, and output slows.

Blocking Qatar’s helium exports (Qatar sits on the world’s largest single natural gas field) means that the price of helium will skyrocket anyway but repeated Iranian drone attacks on Ras Laffan, the world’s largest liquefied natural gas plant, state-owned QatarGas reported “extensive” damage that will take years to repair and cut annual helium exports by 14%. That means helium exports will continue to be 14% lower even if the Straits are reopened. 

This is already disastrous for microchip manufacturers. Worse still, helium cannot be stockpiled like oil. It leaks, it evaporates, and within weeks it’s gone. There are no strategic reserves to fall back on. This is a supply chain that only works if it keeps moving.  The clock is ticking on the helium in factories around the world. 

The consequences are already emerging. Taiwan gets 2/3 of their helium from Qatar and Japan gets about 28-33% from the small Gulf State. The slow down in supply has already forced these countries to slow down production as defect rates increased. A sustained disruption to semiconductor output doesn’t just hit AI (which may not be such a bad thing, personally I can’t stand AI): it hits everything. Smartphones. Cars. Medical equipment. Industrial systems. The entire modern economy runs on chips, and chips run on helium.

A slowdown in tech means the US stock market (and by extension those around the world) is on the cliff edge. The overvalued and hyperextended tech sector (so-called “Magnificent Seven”) have been keeping the stock market high for years. It is a proverbial house of cards and Trump has just shaken the table.  When it falls, it may push the world into a recession. 

* Jack Wilkin is a Research & Development Scientist at Bluecap Resources (Penryn, Cornwall) and an Honorary Associate Research Fellow at the University of Exeter. He is also a Member of the Liberal Democrats.