Trump’s metaphorical coin-tossing decision-making over the bombing of Iran is the clear result of imperial over-reach cloaked in dangerous isolationism.
But whichever way the president decides, the fact that he has to sit in the Oval Office with a handful of yes men and women underscores the fragility of American foreign policy and the rapid decline of a great power.
Previous post-war presidents could rely on an elaborate and carefully constructed network of alliances, treaties and international laws to help with the decision-making. The decisions were not always right. But if they were wrong the burden of the blame could be shared and recovery was easier.
Trump suffers from hubris – aka excessive pride – has extended that hubris to a significant portion of the American electorate and wrapped it in a cloak of isolationism. This in turn has led to the withdrawal – or threatened withdrawal – from alliances, treaty obligations, and international and domestic law.
In 1987 the British historian Paul Kennedy wrote the seminal geopolitical history “The Rise and Fall of Great Powers.” In it he set down the axiom that great powers decline when their military commitments outstrip their economic base—a process he called “imperial overstretch.”
Before Trump the United States appeared to be set to avoid the Kennedy Trap. For a start the fount of its power was liberal democratic values rather than the naked greed which drove the imperial age. It then concentrated on forming alliances and diplomatic cooperation with the countries – Western Europe, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Canada… – with which it shared those values.
Those countries in return provided military bases and support. MAGA Republicans claim that America’s allies have exploited American goodwill. That is true. But they have also delivered the facilities that have provided America with a global reach which in turn has increased its trading and economic power.
Trump has rejected liberal democratic values and attacked the countries and political leaders that continue to espouse them. He has rejected the rule of law at home and abroad. Trump is a 17th century mercantilist who is governed by the belief that might is right. Billionaires are mighty so they must be right. America is mighty therefore it must be right.
MAGA also rejects alliances (or what they might term encumbrances) and restrictions imposed on America by international institutions. But at the same time MAGA has global ambitions. It wants to unilaterally dictate terms out of a sense of victimhood while at the same time withdrawing from obligations. This is a strategic mismatch. It is a variation on the Kennedy thesis by creating the conditions for over-reach through isolationism.
America’s military commitments will eventually outstrip its economic means because it must retain global ambitions to keep markets. But it is trying to achieve this from an isolationist position which involves alienating the countries it needs to stay a super power.
So what does all the above have to do with bombing Iran? For a start, Trump has not estranged all of America’s allies. Just most of them. This means that because of scarcity value, the balance of power between the US and Israel has shifted away from America. The US-armed Israeli tail is wagging the American dog.
The problem with the Israeli-American alliance is that the interests of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are not a hand in glove fit with those of the United States. They have the shared goal of preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear bomb. But Netanyahu has the additional aim of creating successive crises which allow him to retain power which is threatened by an election and a series of pending fraud trials.
As a global super power, American interests are much wider and involve protecting thousands of American servicemen and women in the Gulf region; preventing conflict from spreading throughout the region and insuring that oil continues to be shipped through the Straits of Hormuz to oil refineries around the world. Thirty percent of the world’s oil originates in the Persian Gulf. War between Iran and the US could close the Gulf and bring the world economy to the brink of collapse.
Iran is a rogue state. America and Israel are not the only countries opposed to the Mullahs acquiring a nuclear weapon. But Israel’s actions in Gaza and the West Bank are pushing it towards pariah status. Western countries who would previous have leapt to Israel’s aid are now having second thoughts. They are also having second thoughts about supporting an American president who threatens to destroy their economies with tariffs; their climate petrol fumes; their values with support for Russia and their security with threats of the withdrawal of military support.
In 1990 Iraq’s Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait and threatened the peace of the Gulf region. President George H. Bush immediately set about laying the diplomatic groundwork to eject Saddam from Kuwait. He secured a UN resolution authorising the use of force and assembled a coalition of 35 countries to attack. And finally, the first President Bush had a clear exit strategy—once Iraq was expelled from Kuwait, US troops left.
In contrast, the second Gulf War in 2003 was a disaster for the younger President Bush. He failed to secure UN backing or support from NATO allies (with the exception of the UK). Neither did he have a clear exit strategy. Saddam was toppled and executed. But at the cost of 4,500 American lives and a diplomatic disaster which continues to this day.
MAGA and Trump’s foreign policy makes the neo-conservatives of the Dubya era look like left-wing globalists. Neither Trump nor Netanyahu have an exit strategy or a clear plan for what happens after Iran’s bomb-making capability is destroyed. Both men have hinted at the assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, but Trump is prevented by law (1981 Executive Order 12333) from carrying out assassinations. They have also both hinted at regime change, but the experience of Iraq shows how difficult that is.
Trump has backed himself in the corner. He withdrew from the Iran Nuclear Agreement in 2017. He has ignored international and domestic law, alienated allies and allowed a rogue Netanyahu to run wild. He loses whatever he decides. And so does the rest of the world.
* Tom Arms is foreign editor of Liberal Democrat Voice and author of “The Encyclopaedia of the Cold War” and “America Made in Britain".
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The phrase, “Nero fiddled while Rome burned” has never been more apposite..
In January, I spent 5 hours with an Iranian friend, who had just visited his family, comparing Iran with Germany, being over 4 times larger and a population of 91.5 million against Germany’s population of 84 million. He told me the new president was a reformist but turnout of 41% was low at the last legislative election as sanctions hurt but now, faced with the Israeli attack, Iranians are united in their fight and agreed with the Guardian’s article: ‘We’re on the brink of a disastrous, illegal conflagration in the Middle East. Trump must be stopped.
This is a war of choice, based on misinformation. If the US and UK join it, they risk a rerun of the Iraq debacle of 2003
Like the US-led invasion and occupation of Iraq in 2003, Israel’s war on Iran is neither legal nor just. It is a war of choice, not of necessity – and should the US or its European allies, particularly Britain, join in, they risk being dragged into another disastrous and unlawful conflict in the Middle East.
If the US joins Israel’s war on Iran, it could backfire spectacularly and potentially strengthen the regime rather than weakening it. One likely outcome is that the clerics will dash forward towards making a nuclear bomb, pointing to Israel’s attack and attempt at regime change as justification. Meanwhile, in the UK, Keir Starmer would do well to remember the bitter legacy of Tony Blair, who led Britain into Iraq alongside the US.’
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jun/20/middle-east-trump-stopped-war-uk-us-iraq
Very good article, Tom.
The contrast made between the UN supported Gulf War of 1991 to expel Saddam Hussein’s forces from Kuwait and the ill-fated invasion of Iraq in 2003 is well made.
The hypocrisy of supporting an illegal attack on Iran under International law while defending the sovereignty of Ukraine is plain for all to see.
Americas’ sphere of influence is long-established in the Western hemisphere since the Monroe doctrine of 1823. Global US influence relies on the status of the US dollar as the international reserve currency since 1945, that provides the means for financing the maintenance of 800 US military bases around the world.
Sterling was the International reserve currency in 1913. That was largely gone by 1945 after two major wars leaving elevated debt levels as a % of GDP, a deflationary depression in the inter-war years and the slow post-war decline in importance of the sterling area currency bloc as confidence in Sterling as a store of value gradually weakened in the decades after WW2. The Trump administration currently seems to be following a similar path to that of the British empire in its latter years.
Patrick Cockburn today writes: ‘Israel’s wars in Iran and Gaza are poisoning the political waters of the Middle East even more than the US-led invasion of Iraq did in 2003.
The Iraq invasion was justified by the false claim that the government in Baghdad possessed weapons of mass destruction, posing an imminent threat to the region and beyond. The surprise Israeli attack on Iran on 13 June was similarly justified by the Israeli claim that Iran was close to developing a nuclear device.
However, senior US intelligence officials reportedly said this week that the Iranian leadership has not yet decided to make a nuclear bomb, though it is likely to do so if the US attacks the uranium enrichment plant at Fordo or if Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is assassinated by Israel.
Israeli dominance has been achieved by force alone and is highly unstable, opening the door wide to decades of hatred and violence. Moreover, Israeli supremacy depends on American political and military backing. Regardless of whether or not Donald Trump decides to openly join the Israeli war against Iran, the US is once again mired in a conflict in the Middle East – and that conflict is even crueller and more destructive than it was in 2003.’
https://inews.co.uk/opinion/gaza-is-forgotten-and-iran-is-on-the-edge-these-wars-are-crueller-than-iraq-3762734
@Joe: I don’t think it’s at all hypocritical to support Ukraine’s right to sovereignty while also not being opposed to attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Ukraine is broadly a democracy. Yes, a very imperfect and somewhat corrupt one, but it has a Government that is democratically elected and is broadly trying to do its best for the people of the country. And it has not threatened any other country.
Iran is ruled by – bluntly, a bunch of thugs who, if they had not managed by force to take control of the country, would be internationally recognised as terrorists and criminals. They do not represent the people of Iran, have not been elected in anything you’d recognise as a free and fair election, and ruthlessly suppress their own people, even seeking to intimidate dissenters living abroad (including people living in the UK – which is arguably a violation of our sovereignty). Not only that but they have actively supported and encouraged terrorism abroad, in particular with a view to trying to destroy Israel. And they are actively supplying many of the drones that are being used to deliberately terrorize and kill civilians in Ukraine. There are very good reasons to want to prevent these thugs from getting their hands on nuclear weapons, even if doing so means we have to use military means.
The two situations – Iran and Ukraine – are just not comparable.
Congratulations Tom on a particularly insightful article.
I agree with you that Trump’s policies will prove extremely harmful to the USA and lead to the end of US hegemony. With every day that passes, the USA demonstrates to other countries that it cannot be relied upon.
America First = America Alone (in practice).
‘Trump has rejected liberal democratic values and attacked the countries and political leaders that continue to espouse them’
What values might they be ?
Western liberal governments have not only turned a blind eye to genocide – they’ve actively supported it through military, diplomatic , and economic support. I’m sick of reading about those values it’s complete BS