I’ve watched the images of two American aircraft carriers moving toward the Middle East and I don’t feel reassured.
I feel uneasy.
Let me say something clearly before anyone tries to misrepresent this: I despise the Iranian regime. I despise what it does to its own people. I despise its repression of women, its crushing of dissent, its morality police, its execution of protesters, its export of proxy militias, and its cynical use of religion to entrench power. The Iranian people deserve better than the system that rules them.
But despising a regime does not mean losing the ability to think strategically.
The USS Abraham Lincoln is already operating in the Arabian Sea. The USS Gerald R. Ford, the most advanced aircraft carrier ever built, has been ordered into the region. These are 100,000-ton warships, roughly 1,100 feet long, carrying more than 4,500 people each. Floating cities. Human beings. Sailors with families.
They are symbols of American power. Symbols can become targets.
Iran is not Iraq in 2003. It is not Libya. It is not Syria. This is a regime that survived eight years of total war against Saddam Hussein. During the Iran–Iraq War, hundreds of thousands died. Cities burned. Chemical weapons were used. And still, the state endured.
For 47 years, the Islamic Republic has prepared for confrontation with the United States. That is not hyperbole it is embedded in its military doctrine and national identity.
Now place two aircraft carriers within reach of its missile forces, near the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway barely 33 kilometres wide at its narrowest point. One of the most militarised chokepoints on earth.
Iran possesses medium-range ballistic missiles such as the Shahab-3, with a range of roughly 1,300 kilometres. It fields the Khorramshahr, assessed at up to around 2,000 kilometres. It has unveiled the Fattah-1, described by Tehran as hypersonic, with a claimed range of about 1,400 kilometres. It deploys anti-ship cruise missiles. It manufactures Shahed-136 drones designed for saturation attacks,launched in waves, intended to overwhelm.