Tag Archives: canada

Securing the United Kingdom in a changing world: Why Mark Carney was right at Davos.

In a world still reeling from rapid geopolitical shifts, the question of national security and strategic autonomy has never been more pressing for the United Kingdom. The post-Second World War era of a relatively stable, rules-based international order – underpinned by multilateral institutions, shared norms, and strong Western alliances – is being challenged on multiple fronts. Nowhere was this tension clearer than in Mark Carney’s landmark address at the World Economic Forum in Davos last week, where he delivered a stark analysis of the changing global order and what it means for middle powers like the UK.

Carney’s central thesis was that the international system is not merely evolving – it is rupturing. For decades, the UK, alongside its allies, benefited from what was labelled a rules-based order: predictable trade, collective security, open sea-lanes, and multilateral dispute resolution. But that era is increasingly giving way to a world dominated by great power rivalry and economic coercion. According to Carney, we are now in “the midst of a rupture, not a transition” – a point that resonates as global leaders grapple with the reality of a more volatile geopolitical landscape.

This rupture is characterised by powerful states leveraging economic integration as a strategic tool and weapon — using tariffs, supply-chain dependencies, financial infrastructure, and energy ties to bend smaller partners to their aims. Carney warned that continuing to rely on outdated assumptions of mutual benefit is no longer tenable when integration itself can become a source of subordination.

Much of the backdrop to Carney’s analysis is the reality of the international leadership exerted by the United States under President Donald Trump, whose policies have unsettled long-standing diplomatic norms. Trump’s aggressive trade stance – including tariff threats tied to strategic interests such as Greenland – and his readiness to prioritise unilateral action over multilateral cooperation have highlighted the fragility of previous assumptions about Western unity.

While Carney refrained from naming Trump directly in his speech, the subtext was unmistakable: the security environment that the UK has long relied upon – anchored by predictable American leadership – is no longer guaranteed. The UK can no longer take for granted that allies will act within established norms or that economic integration will safeguard its interests.

What this means for the UK and for us as Liberal Democrats

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Tom Arms’ World Review

Middle powers rule. Or at least they should try to. That was the message of the erudite Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney at Davos this week. And as he spoke there were lot of sage heads nodding in agreement.

Carney started from the premise that the old US-led rules-based world order was over, finished, kaput, dead and buried.

Without specifically naming the American president, Carney made it clear that the US president had created a “rupture” in the diplomatic fabric and that humanity was entering a darker less kind world in which might makes right.

In this world there will be two major powers—China and the United States. If Russia succeeds in Ukraine and moves on the Baltic States and possibly Moldova and Poland, it could be a third power.

In such a world the smaller countries—and what Carney called “the middle powers”, were simply there to be exploited, squeezed, trampled upon and discarded without any concern for their rights or well being. But, said the former governor of the Bank of England and Bank of Canada, there is a solution to this dark scenario: Join forces and create an economic, political, diplomatic and military bloc that protects the middle countries common values.

The middle countries need to cooperate more closely. The super powers work best by divide and conquer rule. Trump’s antipathy towards the EU is proof of that. So, to counter that policy the middle countries must not allow the US and China to divide them. They must—as much as possible—negotiate with the great powers as one bloc.

Carney’s key line at Davos was: “Middle powers must act together, because, if we are not at the table we are on the menu.”

Acting together means reduce dependence on great powers or on supply chains that can be used as leverage. It means diversifying economic, trade, energy and technology ties. Lesser dependence means lesser vulnerability.

Like-minded countries should partner with other like-minded countries to share the costs of defense, standards and resilience rather than leaving it to the great powers to set the parameters.

Mark Carney even had a name for his proposal—“variable geometry” which means countries negotiate a set of different alliances where different groups work together on specific issues based on shared values and interests.

If you want proof of the value of Carney’s words then just note Donald Trump’s reaction. He was so angry at Carney’s speech that he withdrew his offer to admit Canada to his Board of Peace. Well, if Trump doesn’t like it….

King of the World. That is effectively the job that Donald Trump is trying to create for himself with the creation of his “Board of Peace”. That is if it is successful.

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Tom Arms’ World Review

Gaza

“There is no starvation in Gaza. There is no policy of starvation in Gaza,” so spake Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Well, just about everyone disagrees with him, including his good buddy Donald Trump.

According to the World Health Organisation (WHO) in July alone 63 Gazans died of malnutrition. Obviously many more are suffering from it and still clinging to life. Of those who died 24 were children and 38 adults. The adults were mainly parents who gave what little food they had to their children.

Death from malnutrition is one of the worst possible ways to die. It takes months and is extremely painful.

It usually starts with fatigue. Then the body—in its search for the energy it needs to stay alive—starts to break down muscle tissue from the organs, including the heart and lungs. The skin becomes dry and develops sores. Hair falls out. The victim suffers severe stomach cramps and joint and muscle pain. The victims become highly susceptible to other disease. In the final stages a malnourished person becomes apathetic, confused and then dies.

The worst affected, are children under three. They are more likely to become malnourished simply because they are at an age when their fast-growing bodies need more energy/fuel. They also have limited reserves of fat so they become malnourished more quickly.

Survivors can suffer long-term problems, dependent on how soon they can be treated high calorie foods such as “plumpy nut.” But they have to be treated in special centres over a period of many months or their bodies can suffer other problems.

If their state of starvation is too far advanced, then the children especially will suffer complications for the rest of their lives.

They will almost certainly be below height and weight and the onset of puberty will be delayed. The children will be more susceptible to diarrhoea, pneumonia, malaria, measles and chronic diseases. They will also have a lower IQ and have difficulty concentrating.  According to the WHO, children who survive severe malnutrition are 12 times more likely to die from a childhood disease.

If they survive to adulthood, they will suffer from depression and anxiety and find it difficult to forge relationships.

One of the main reasons for long-lasting damage is the permanent harm that malnutrition does to the synaptic connections. These are the tiny electrical connections between the body’s cells. Synaptic connections are most commonly referred to when talking about brain functions, but they are also vital in the nervous system and keeping the heart pumping.

Brazil and Canada

Trump’s tariffs are now a political weapon. Actually, they have always been in his political arsenal. He is just being a bit more open about using excise duties for political ends.

The two main targets this week are Canada and Brazil.

The latter involves Trump’s Brazilian friend Jair Bolsonaro. The former Brazilian president was known as the “Latin Trump” and the two men had a lot in common. Not only did their policies overlap, so did the way in which they left office.

Both men claimed that their second runs for the presidency of their respective countries were “stolen” by a “deep state” liberal establishment. Both men also allegedly organised coups to reverse the results of those elections and encouraged their supporters to storm federal buildings to keep them in power.

Trump got away with it. His 2024 election victory brought an abrupt halt to attempts to bring him to trial. Bolsonaro was not so lucky. First he was banned from running for office again until 2030 and then, in February of this year, he was told by Brazil’s Supreme Court that he must stand trial.

Trump’s says the charges against Bolsonaro are “a political witch hunt” and he has slapped a 50 percent tariff on Brazil. He also sanctioned the judge—Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes—leading the investigation of Bolsonaro with sanctions and blocked the justice’s access to US investments.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (Lula) has responded by telling Trump that if January 6 had occurred in Brazil, he would be in prison.

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13 June 2025 – Friday’s press releases

  • Davey: International leadership is needed now
  • Davey urges Starmer to forge new UK-Canada defence pact to reduce reliance on Trump
  • Greene to Tories: It’s Kemi-geddon
  • Greene: Badenoch might as well say vote Lib Dem

Davey: International leadership is needed now

Following Israel’s strikes in Iran overnight, Liberal Democrat Leader Ed Davey said:

People across the UK and the world will be fearing the break-out of widespread regional conflict in the Middle East, following Israel’s strikes overnight.

The UK must work with allies to contain Iran’s nuclear ambitions through diplomacy, not war.

The UK Government should urge both Israel and Iran not to do anything that will escalate the situation any further.

International leadership is needed now.

Davey urges Starmer to forge new UK-Canada defence pact to reduce reliance on Trump

Liberal Democrat Leader Ed Davey has called on the Prime Minister to forge a new UK-Canada defence pact, to strengthen national security and boost the economy, while reducing both countries’ reliance on Donald Trump’s US administration.

It comes as Keir Starmer is expected to arrive in Canada ahead of the G7 summit beginning this weekend.

This week the Trump administration said it would review the submarine deal with the UK and Australia, saying the security pact must fit its “America First” agenda.

Liberal Democrat Leader Ed Davey said:

Trump has shown his disregard for our collective security time and time again – not least this week, displaying total indifference to his traditional allies by threatening the future of the AUKUS defence agreement.

We should work with our Commonwealth ally Canada as it joins the UK in increasing defence spending, but also looks to move away from its reliance on US military exports.

That is why I am urging the Prime Minister to propose a new, bilateral UK-Canada defence pact at the G7 this weekend, making us more secure while also boosting British manufacturing.

Greene to Tories: It’s Kemi-geddon

Speaking as the Scottish Conservative conference gets underway at Murrayfield in Edinburgh, Scottish Liberal Democrat MSP Jamie Greene said:

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A great victory for Liberals everywhere

Embed from Getty Images

Mark Carney and the Canadian Liberals have won an extraordinary victory which seemed impossible a few months ago.

In hispowerful victory speech in English and French, he said that he would be guided by 3 values ; Humility , Ambition and Unity and stressed the importance of bringing the whole country together to deal with the new world we are in.

He could not have been clearer about the threat and the fundamental change: “America wants our land, our resources, our country …. President Trump is trying to break us, so that America can own us. Our old relationship with the United States is over ….. The system of global open trade .. is dead”

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Bullied bullies and the New World Order

It is a common trait of bullies that they resort to self-pity; claiming to have been bullied themselves. Yet such psychopathology is found not only in the school playground but in the affairs of nations.

Putin’s narrative justifying the invasion of a peaceful neighbour and attendant war crimes draws heavily on a history of post-Soviet Russia being taken advantage of by the West. When China behaves badly it is apt to invoke its own ‘century of humiliation’. The rulers of a newly confident India hark back to past conquests by Muslim invaders to justify persecuting religious minorities. The Balkans and the Middle East continue to suffer the trauma of bullied bullies who excuse themselves in appeals to their own past suffering.

But the USA? Taken advantage of by the world? Exploited and abused by cheaters; scavengers; plunderers; pillagers; rapists. Really? Trump is a smart politician and seems to have found in the MAGA crowd a deep vein of self-pity for all the unfairness heaped on America: ungrateful. free-riding Europeans; devious Asians who have stolen America’s industry; invading Latinos; even, the dastardly Canadians. 

Many countries nurse a mixture of pride and guilt about their history, and their identity. The former colonial powers, like the UK, have had to accept being thrown out of their colonies. Germany and Japan had to come to terms with comprehensive defeat. For sure, the USA has had to come to terms with the genocide of its native inhabitants and slavery. But it can also boast vast achievements: winner of the Cold War; a widely admired ‘shining city on the hill’; creator of the institutions and rules which led to 70 odd years of remarkable global progress; and, still, the undisputed economic and technological leader of the Western world. So why is the Trump bully boy so sorry for himself? 

One grievance is partly justified but has nothing to do with the trade war which Trump has unleashed:  the long-standing failure of America’s European and Asian allies to pay their share of common defence.  After all, the USA has taken on the risk of nuclear incineration which could conceivably be triggered by some miscalculation or mischief made by Europeans in the Baltic or the Balkans.  Trump is right to insist that if Europeans won’t pay up, they can’t expect continued protection.  But, typically ungracious, he fails to acknowledge that British, Danish, Dutch and other Europeans have given their lives supporting the Americans in their questionable wars of choice in Afghanistan and Iraq.

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Tom Arms’ World Review

France

France’s Marine Le Pen has been hoisted upon her own petard. At the National Rally’s annual convention in 2015 she stood at the podium and declared that any politician found guilty of a crime should be barred from office.

Of course, she wasn’t talking about herself. She was referring to the long parade of French political leaders who had fallen foul of the law and been convicted of everything from incitement to hate crimes to pimping to old-fashioned corruption. They included her own father (Jean-Marie Le Pen) and two French presidents (Jacques Chirac and Nicolas Sarkozy).

Most of them got off fairly lightly, heavy fines and mostly suspended sentences. Only one senior French politician in recent memory has been barred from office—former prime minister Alain Juppe who in 2004 was found guilty of an almost identical crime as the one committed by Ms Le Pen: misusing public funds for political purposes.

In the case of Ms Le Pen and her 24 co-defendants in the National Rally, they were found guilty of taking $4,412,000 earmarked for European Parliamentary business and using the money to pay people working for National Rally. Ms Le Pen was responsible for $520,000 of the money.

The parallels with the legal travails of Donald Trump are obvious. But the American courts took the position that they should go easy on him because he was on the cusp of becoming president. Ms Le Pen is also leading the polls. But the French judges have argued the opposite to their American counterparts.

They judged that because Ms Le Pen was a leading candidate for the presidency of France she should receive a harsher sentence. To do otherwise, argued the court, “would cause a major disruption to democratic public order.”

Ms Le Pen and Donald Trump, Elon Musk, Vladimir Putin, Giorgia Meloni, Viktor Orban and just under half of French voters think that the sentence is unacceptable interference by the courts in the political process. Everyone else thinks that it is important that the law be upheld—a law which Ms Le Pen herself supported.

Canada

It’s called the “Trump Factor” in Canada and it is defined as the out-sized impact that the American president is having on the Canadian elections scheduled for 28 April.

The focus of Canadians is not surprising as Trump has taken it upon himself to threaten Canadian sovereignty by calling for it to become the 51st state and is about to slap tariffs on Canada which will destroy the country’s economy and tens of thousands of jobs.

Which brings us to Canada’s conservative leader Pierre Polievre who has been referred to as “Trump light.” He favours private enterprise; wants some immigration controls; is an anti-vaxxer; is so-so on the issue of climate change; has promised the biggest crackdown on crime in Canadian history; and is seriously anti-woke.

Back in January—before Trump launched his anti-Canadian crusade—Polievre’s policies were enough to put him an apparent shoe-in for the premiership as his party polled 25 points ahead of the governing Liberals.

As of this week, the Liberals are 25 points ahead of Polievre’s conservatives.

The complete reversal is partly down to the resignation of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. After nine years in office, the pretty boy of Canadian politics, had run out of steam and was deeply unpopular.

He was replaced by technocrat Mark Carney whose impressive cv includes stints as the governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England. Carney then played the card that was the second, bigger reason for the reversal in political fortunes—the Canadian public’s growing hatred of Donald Trump.

Carney has broken with diplomatic convention and refused make his first visit to Washington. Instead he flew to London and Paris. He has been adamant that Canada will never be part of the United States. He will retaliate against any Trumpian tariffs and work to reorganise Canada’s trading patterns away from America. “Our relationship with America will never be the same,” Carney declared.

He doesn’t need any policies other than being firmly anti-Trump.

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Why liberals should back CANZUK

Reading the Financial Times is not for the easily troubled. At once the news it is mission-bound to report is confusing, intimidating, and depressing when the reader becomes aware of just how much money we don’t have and trivialities on which the rest of it is being spent. 

However, amidst the gloom of flicking through the pink ‘un these days, there is the occasional flicker of light, such as the recent article featuring Sir Ed Davey in which the Lib Dem leader endorsed a great idea – a closer working relationship between Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and our own United Kingdom. 

The notion has a snappy name, it’s called CANZUK, and liberals should support it.

But, CANZUK has an image problem in liberal minds. The idea has previously been misrepresented as a colonialist retread and championed by those who suggested it’s a better alternative to the European Union. The reality is far from that. 

In fact, it is a drawing together of the nations of the world who have gained the most from the fine tradition of British liberty found in the pages of Mill, Hume, Smith, and Locke and whose lineage disappears into the fog of time on these islands. As for being an alternative to the EU, why think so small? 

A throat-clearing is required here. I believe that Brexit was a huge mistake and has left us poorer, more isolated, less confident, and more exposed to global shocks. I am no Brexiteer and would prefer it had never happened. 

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Tom Arms’ World Review

Germany

Friedrich Merz is steaming ahead—and he hasn’t even formed his government.

The string bean leader of Germany’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is certain to be chancellor as soon as he has formed his coalition with the Social Democrats. But that will take several weeks of political haggling and the fast moving and fast deteriorating international scene dictates that the power house of Europe must be involved NOW.

So, next week the German parliament is being recalled to amend the federal constitution to allow the government to increase borrowing to boost the economy by investing in infrastructure and to pay for a bigger defense establishment. This means that when the new government is sworn in on March 25th it will have the financial means to hit the ground running.

Up until the election of Donald Trump Merz was a firm Atlanticist. But on election night he he spun 180 degrees. “My absolute priority,” he told supporters, “will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the USA.”

And for those who worry about Trump pulling out of NATO, Merz strongly hinted that Europe may be the ones to leave the alliance.

United States

The US Department of Defense recently published a manual on counter-insurgency called Joint Publication 3-24 (JP3-24). It argued that the lessons over the past 60 years show that in the 21st century the only way that one country can successfully occupy another is through total annihilation.

“To hold countries,” wrote the American planners, “you need to impose order. To impose order you need to control populations. To control populations you need to use violence. Violence leads to violence, which is inherently antithetical to order.”

American forces have discovered in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan that, even with the support of local governments, tiny pockets of resistance can make chaos more or less permanent. Attempts to quell that chaos are counterproductive as they only result in reactive violence.

The days of colonial empires imposing their rule on near-docile populations is over. In the post-colonial world populations demand the right to rule. If occupiers want to usurp that right they have to impose draconian anti-insurgent measures and each new imposition undermines their control.

What the US has found to its cost, the Russians should have concluded after the failure of their Ukrainian puppet Viktor Yanukovych and will discover again if they succeed in ousting Volodomyr Zelensky and installing a stooge in Kyiv. Vladimir Putin will certainly discover the truth of JP3-24 if he goes onto re-establish the Russian empire and conquers Georgia, Moldova, Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and others.

His only hope is to replace the local majority with an ethnic Russian majority. This was a well-tried tactic of the tsars and Joseph Stalin which led to the forced removal of local populations to less equable climes such as Siberia.

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Why the Liberal Democrats Should Champion a CANZUK Alliance

As a Liberal Democrat and someone deeply invested in international cooperation, I believe the concept of CANZUK—strengthening ties between Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the UK—deserves serious consideration within our party. This isn’t just about nostalgia for a shared past; it’s about unlocking practical, forward-thinking opportunities that align with our values of internationalism, economic prosperity, and human rights.

I want to explore how a CANZUK alliance could benefit the UK and why the Liberal Democrats should be leading the conversation on this issue.

Economic Growth and Trade Expansion

One of the most compelling reasons for strengthening CANZUK ties is the economic potential. The combined GDP of these four countries exceeds $7.5 trillion, making them a formidable economic bloc. Unlike many existing trade agreements, a CANZUK trade partnership would be built on a foundation of mutual trust, shared legal systems, and compatible regulatory standards.

Post-Brexit, the UK needs to reimagine its place in global trade. While we should maintain strong ties with Europe, there is also an opportunity to build new economic relationships with countries that share our language, governance structures, and business culture. Canada, Australia, and New Zealand already have strong trade ties with one another, and deepening our involvement in this network could create fresh opportunities for UK businesses.

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) would benefit the most from easier access to new markets. If we establish streamlined trade agreements with these nations, businesses could export their goods and services with fewer tariffs and bureaucratic hurdles. The Liberal Democrats have always championed policies that help small businesses thrive, and a CANZUK trade partnership would do just that.

Freedom of Movement and Talent Exchange

Another major pillar of the CANZUK proposal is the free movement of people between the four countries. This could be a transformative policy, allowing UK citizens to live, work, and study in Australia, Canada, and New Zealand with fewer restrictions.

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Standing firm: defying Trump’s tariff war and protecting our allies

Yesterday morning, I woke up to the stark reality that Donald Trump has once again shot himself in the foot, imposing tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and potentially the European Union. This move is a clear sign that Britain, despite the naïve optimism of some on the far-right or within the Reform Party, will not be spared. In the long run, we too will face tariffs, and we risk becoming a client nation under Trump’s empire-like vision of America. Unfortunately for Trump, he seems to idolize the likes of Caligula, the Roman emperor who waged war against the sea. I’m surprised he hasn’t sent his armies to conquer the ocean yet.

Britain, the European Union, Canada, Australia, and other sovereign nations must now band together and stand firm against this kind of bullying. We cannot allow even an inch of European land to fall under the influence of American tariffs and policies. We must not let Canada, our steadfast ally, become the 51st state of the United States. We must empower our colleagues in Canada and stand by their side.

As free, sovereign countries that cherish liberal democracy, we do not undermine each other. We do not bow down to bullies. If Donald Trump and his supporters wish to shape America into a nation more tolerant of far-right ideologies, then so be it. But we will not be bullied by countries that, while influential, are taking a dangerous path.

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Observations of an Expat: Fentanyl

Fentanyl is a nasty synthetic opioid. It is 100 times more potent than heroin and 50 times more potent than morphine. It is, not surprisingly, also many times more addictive.

In 2023 an estimated 75,000 Americans died of fentanyl overdoses. As little as two milligrams of fentanyl—roughly equivalent to a few grains of salt—can kill you. A large number of the 2.5 million US opioid addicts are fentanyl users.

Because it is highly addictive, Fentanyl is replacing—some say has replaced—cocaine and heroin as the product of choice of the drug cartels. Heroin exports are also being laced with a grain or two of fentanyl to increase the user’s dependence on the drugs.

All of the above goes some of the way to explaining why President-elect Donald Trump has linked the totally separate issues of immigration and fentanyl exports and threatened to slap a 25 percent tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada and a 10 percent tariff on Chinese imports unless they close down the fentanyl-producing laboratories and the smuggling operations. Of course, life is never that simple.

Let’s start with Mexico. The Mexican drug cartels are the major culprits. In the first nine months of this year, US Customs seized 16,000 pounds of fentanyl at America’s southern border. That is 7.24 billion lethal doses.

The illicit trade is dominated by the Sinalo and Jalisco New Generation cartels. They have taken the billions they have earned from drugs to invest in mining, agriculture and, of course, political respectability. They have become an integral part of the Mexican business and political establishment with legal and illegal operations in 40 countries. They will be difficult to root out. To complicate matters they operate a franchise system so that each production and smuggling operation functions separately from the centre.

The Chinese were targeted by the Biden Administration, and since 2019 illegal exports of fentanyl to the US and to Mexico for transhipment to the US have dropped dramatically. But the chemical components that comprise the synthetic drug are still being shipped to Mexican Laboratories for assembly. As each of the components is completely legal it is difficult to prevent their production and export.

It is a bit of a mystery as to why Trump has included Canada on his list. In the first nine months of 2024 US Customs sized just 40 pounds of fentanyl heading south from America’s northern neighbour. It is also an enigma as to why Trump included Canada in his target list for illegal aliens. In 2023, US border control stopped 12,200 illegal aliens from crossing the US-Canada border. This compares to 2.48 million from Mexico. It is more likely that Trump is trying to undermine liberal icon Justin Trudeau before next year’s federal elections.

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Tom Arms’ World Review

United States

The ripple effects following the ejection of Kevin McCarthy from the Speaker’s chair in the US House of Representatives are severe and wide-reaching. The issues most affected are moderates in the Republican Party, Ukraine and the credibility of the United States.

The mainstream of the Republican Party – or at least the congressional caucus – is not as unreasonably far-right as it is portrayed. Out of the 221 Republican members of the lower house, only 40 are signed up members of the right-wing Freedom Caucus. And of those, only about 20 could be considered extreme right by American standards.

The problem is that the Freedom Caucus – especially the far-right 20 or so members – are really a separate political party using the broad coattails of the Republican establishment to pursue policies which are antithetical to their own party. They can succeed in their aims because the Republicans’ majority as a whole is so narrow that the Freedom Caucus holds the balance of power.

In practice this means that the next Speaker could easily be Congressman Jim Jordan, a rabid Trump supporter and founding member of the Freedom Caucus. He has already secured the ex-president’s endorsement.

It also means that Ukraine will find it difficult to secure the next tranche of US military aid it has been promised. For the Freedom Caucus and Donald Trump the issue of self-determination and respect for the rule of law comes after support for Vladimir Putin.

The ejection of McCarthy also makes a US government shutdown almost certain.  It was McCarthy’s successful 11th-hour deal to prevent a shutdown which provided the straw that broke the back of the caucus camel. Any future Speaker will be all too aware that he will suffer the same fate if he allows Biden’s budget through Congress.

All of the above bolsters the belief that political divisions are rendering the US ungovernable. This in turn undermines credibility at home and abroad. America is the recognised standard bearer of world democracy. Alternative systems—especially Russia, China and Iran—argue that if democracy can’t work in America… then it can’t work.

Ukraine

Support for Ukraine this week suffered a blow on the European side of the Atlantic as well as the American.

It came in the form of an election victory for the pro-Russian Slovakian politician Robert Fico and his Direction-Social Democracy (or SMER-SD) Party. Fico’s party failed to win an outright majority in parliament, but with 24 percent of the votes it is the largest single party and is currently in coalition talks with smaller pro-Russian parties.

They have until 16 October to form a government and in the interim period have announced an end to all aid to Ukraine; a block on Ukrainian membership of NATO and an end to Slovakian support for EU sanctions against Russia.

Unlike most of the current batch of European populist parties, SMER-SD is left as opposed to right-wing. This, however, has not prevented Hungary’s populist right-winger Viktor Orban from welcoming Fico’s victory. Clearly common ground on the populist positions on the EU, Russia, gay rights, woke culture, immigration, media restrictions, curbs on the judiciary, sanctions and the war in Ukraine trumps the political spectrum issue.

This is not Fico’s first run at Slovak prime minister. He was initially elected to the job in 2012 with a whopping 83-seat majority. He was forced into coalition after the 2016 election and shortly afterward ran unsuccessfully for the presidency. In 2018 he was forced to resign as prime minister after the murder of investigative journalist Jan Kuciak. He had been investigating the Slovakian mafia and police later linked Maria Troskova, Fico’s assistant, to the gangs.

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Observations of an Expat: The Great Indian Escape

India is likely to escape the consequences of allegedly murdering a Sikh Canadian on Canadian soil.

And this in turn will have consequences for democracy and political structures in India, the sub-continent’s relations with the rest of the world, Canadian relations with its allies and the international rule of law.

Let’s start with the fact that the claim that Indian intelligence agents were responsible for the murder of Sikh nationalist Hardeep Singh Nijjar is – so far – an allegation. And that the government of Narendra Modi has dismissed it as “absurd.”

But, at the same time, it is inconceivable that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau would have stood on the floor of the Canadian parliament and announced that he had “credible evidence” that India was behind the murder given the dire repercussions of such a claim.

India is fast becoming one of the most important countries in the world. It has overtaken China as the most populous. Its economy is growing at 7.8 percent and is set to overtake Japan as the world’s third largest.

It has become a go-to destination for Western companies seeking to “de-risk” their investments in China. And as a member of the Quad Alliance it is a key counter-balance to Chinese influence in the world.

All this means that the US and its allies – including Canada – have been actively courting the Delhi government of Modi and this courtship has turning a blind – or at least blinkered – eye to its excesses.

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Disabled living in Canada

I have just returned from a very happy two week visit to Ontario with my husband Ian, staying with my brother and attending our niece’s wedding. I have loved Canada ever since my first visit nearly 50 years ago, and have been back many times. Indeed, it is the one country outside the UK where I would be happy to live. The Americans joke about the Canadians – always calm, punctual and highly efficient (and with strong gun laws) – not realising that it is indeed good to live in a liberal democracy ruled by common sense. The country is also stunningly beautiful and we have explored it from Newfoundland to Vancouver, and from Niagara to Hudson Bay.

Canada has a proud record of providing a safe haven for those who have been forced from their homes, from the former slaves who took the Underground Railroad to freedom, to the current policy of welcoming refugees, most recently from Afghanistan and Ukraine.

But Canada has its dark side, highlighted by the recent visit by the Pope. And we also discovered that disabled people have limited rights in law, and their needs are often overlooked institutionally.

This was the first time we had flown anywhere since the pandemic. Ian has a complex neurological condition and we have been using Special Assistance in airports for some years. He has some, but limited, mobility and since our last flight he has started using a mobility scooter and a folding wheelchair which we take with us when we go out together, so we took it with us to Canada this time.

The first thing we noticed in Canada is that there is no requirement for buildings that are open to the public to be accessible. When we ate out in a restaurant we had to phone in advance to check whether we could actually get in with the wheelchair. Once in, few had disabled loos.

But the real struggle emerged when we got to Montreal Airport for our flight home. We had booked Special Assistance through the airline (Air Transat) but we discovered on the airport’s website that they also offered a service from the drop-off point to check-in. To add to the complications my mobility is also limited, but not to the same extent as Ian’s, and I find it impossible to push a wheelchair and all our luggage at the same time. So we filled in the online form to request this support and received a confirmation telling us to report to Door 4 of the terminal at 7pm.

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How do the Canadian Liberals win a majority next time?

It’s a case of ‘as you were’ in Canada as electors stick with the Liberals – as a minority government.

Having called a snap election in August, Justin Trudeau will be relieved to still be Prime Minister having seen his Liberal Party slump in the opinion polls earlier in the campaign.

When the election was called on 15th August, the Liberals had a strong 6-point lead over the Conservatives. However, by 5th September, the Tories had overtaken the Liberals for a 3-point lead. At this point, it looked as though Trudeau’s gamble was going to backfire. After some strong performances at the televised election debates and high-energy electioneering, the Liberals retook the lead over the final few days of the campaign. It’s also clear that the first-past-the-post electoral system has helped them win as the Tories won more votes but fewer seats than the ‘Grits’.

Opposition leader, Erin O’Toole, failed to make the most of voters’ disgruntlement over having to return to the polling booths during the pandemic. Having taken a more centrist position on areas such as covid-recovery, LGBTQ+ issues, abortion, and the environment, O’Toole had tried to make himself out as a credible, reliable alternative to Trudeau. However, the Conservatives ended losing two seats from the previous election. The Tories may feel that had they taken a more populist tone, they might have done better. This is because the right-wing People’s Party won more than 5% of the vote – enough to dent Tory hopes and to swing some seats to the Liberals.

It was also a disappointing night for Jagmeet Singh and the NDP. This should have been a breakthrough election for the left-leaning party, but they failed to attract more progressive voters who are tired of Trudeau’s Liberals after 6 years in power. However, they made only one gain this election.

Liberals need to focus on Atlantic Canada to win a majority again

In the 2015 Federal Election, where the Liberals soared from third party to majority government, they swept ‘Atlantic Canada’ completely. In the provinces of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, Newfoundland, and New Brunswick, the Liberals won all the ridings.

However, by 2021, the Liberals had lost ground in places like New Brunswick, where liberal Fredericton is now surrounded with a blue Tory doughnut. In some ridings in Atlantic Canada, the Liberals are now as much as 10,000 votes off winning the seat.

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Justin Trudeau gets away with his gamble

After a $600 million election that Liberal Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau didn’t need to call, voters have delivered virtually the same result as in 2019. Trudeau failed to re-gain the majority he won in 2015. In fact, his Liberal Party is likely to lose a seat and the Conservatives will gain a seat.

I had been hoping that the New Democrats would have won more seats to anchor the Liberals to a more progressive path, but they are projected to only gain 3 seats.

The Greens will stay on two but not the same two as last time as their vote share fell. They held their former leader’s seat in Vancouver and gained one in Ontario where the Liberal candidate was not supported by the party after a scandal but there was no time to replace him on the ballot. Internal divisions led to them losing their original two and having a pretty miserable election. Their leader will not be in Parliament as she went from 2nd (in a by-election) to 4th in her seat.  Thanks to Em Dean for providing me with more detailed information.

The odious UKIP style People’s Party have more than doubled their vote.

From CBC in Canada:

Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau has won enough seats in this 44th general election to form another minority government — with voters signalling Monday they trust the incumbent to lead Canada through the next phase of the pandemic fight by handing him a third mandate with a strong plurality.

After a 36-day campaign and a $600-million election, the final seat tally doesn’t look very different from the composition of the House of Commons when it was dissolved in early August — prompting even more questions about why a vote was called during a fourth wave of the pandemic in the first place.

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Has Justin Trudeau blown it?

Canada’s Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau might have done well to remember the experience of Theresa May before he called a snap election two years before he needed to.

In 2017, with soaring poll ratings, May decided to go the polls to get a bigger majority to neutralise the more excitable Brexiteer wing of her party. Pride came before a fall as she ended the night on June 8th with no majority at all. The campaign was hers to lose and she did that in style. Her claim to bring strong and stable government was in tatters after a u-turn on social care early in the campaign and things just went from bad to worse after that. The Tories thought they could easily trounce a far left Labour leader. Jeremy Corbyn, however, found himself unexpectedly popular with young people.

In Canada, Trudeau seems to be having a similar experience. He started the election 5 points ahead and is now round about 3 points behind. CBC’s poll tracker sets out the grim reality.

This is the second time Trudeau has had a poor campaign, so you think he might have learned from 2019 when he lost his majority and the popular vote after sliding through the campaign, losing 20 seats in the process.

And to make matters worse, one of his MPs has had to stand down after nominations close in Kitchener, Ontario in the face of sexual harassment allegations which he denies. Trudeau stood by him just a few days ago. This was quite clearly going to be an issue during the campaign and has cost the Liberals a seat. It’s at best careless.

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Liberals look for third successive election victory – and a majority

Embed from Getty Images

Canadian Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, has fired the starting gun on a snap federal election set for 20th September.

The election is the third time in six years that Canadians have gone to the polls to elect the government in Ottawa. Trudeau’s goal is obvious – to win a majority.

The timing is right for the Liberal government, as their response to the Covid pandemic has seen them surge ahead in the polls. At the 2019 federal election, Trudeau’s Liberals lost their majority, and governed from a position 13 seats short of the 170 needed for overall power. Over the summer, polls have consistently given the Liberals between a 50-70 seat advantage over the Conservatives – bordering on a majority.

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Canadian Liberals win Federal Election, but lose majority

The Liberal Party of Canada have beaten the Conservatives in the Federal Election but have lost their majority in ‘the Hill’.

The Liberals won 157 seats (down 20), with the Conservatives trailing behind on 121. It was a good night for the separatist Bloc Quebecois (BQ), who won 32 seats in the region (up from 10 in 2015), while the NDP were pushed into fourth after losing nearly half of their seats. The Green Party trebled their numbers in the house to three.

The real story is that the Liberals actually lost the popular vote to the Conservatives and shed nearly 1.3 million votes on 2015. By narrowly winning ‘ridings’ in Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada, the Liberals have just about squeezed their way on top.

It’s been a long 40-day campaign for the Liberals who have endured pressure from the Conservative machine, revelations about Trudeau’s ‘Blackface’ past, and a resurgent separatist movement in their Quebec heartlands.

After winning an outright majority in 2015, Trudeau had an easy ride in passing most of his manifesto (a credible 92% of his manifesto promises kept), but now needs to use all of his political skill to maintain power.

 So, what happens next?

Similar to what Johnson is facing in Westminster, its very difficult to pass any legislation as a minority, and so Trudeau will need to reach out across the House.

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Is Canada heading for a coalition?

‘Lawn signs’ are being banged into front gardens across Canada with the 2019 Federal Election taking place on Monday (21st). With the polls close between the incumbent Liberals and the opposition Conservatives, and with neither looking likely to pull away, ‘The Hill’ could be a hung parliament. This would be truly historic as Canada has never previously had a formal coalition in Ottawa.

In recent weeks, the Liberals have pulled themselves level with the Conservatives after falling far behind the Tories in February. The polls suggest that the Liberals could win more seats than the Conservatives, but not enough to win an outright majority.

The role of the smaller parties will come to light here. The left-leaning New Democrats (NDP) are very much the third party but are closely followed by the regionalists in Quebec – the Bloc Quebecois. The Greens, who look set to pick up seats in the Liberal heartlands of the East, could also keep Trudeau in power. All of these parties have more in common with the Liberals than the Conservatives. If there is a hung parliament in Canada, it is more likely that Trudeau will remain at Sussex Drive, than Andrew Scheer.

Under Jagmeet Singh, the NDP have struggled to hit the heights of 2011, where under charismatic former leader Jack Layton, they pushed the Liberals into 3rd place. Singh won the Burnaby South by-election in February this year with an increased majority and will look to win similar ridings across British Columbia to advance from their 44 seats at the 2015 Federal Election. There is a lot of common ground between the NDP and the Liberals, and by winning in a similar number of seats (which is possible), they could help the Liberals over the line in October. With the election looking more and more like a two-horse race, it is entirely possible that the NDP will be squeezed even harder than in 2015. The election campaign hasn’t been easy for Singh, as several of his candidates have defected to the Green Party, believing they have a stronger chance of winning under the Green banner. Singh has said publicly that he could work with the Liberals in a coalition post-election.

The Green Party, under highly credible Elizabeth May, look set to gain seats in ‘Atlantic Canada’. They currently only hold 2 seats (out of 338), but in an election that is neck-and-neck, they could be kingmakers in Canada post-October 21st. Since 2015, the Greens have been on the march in regional elections, including in the April 2019 election in the province of Prince Edward Island, where the Greens beat the Liberals into third place. Like the NDP, there is common ground between the Liberals and Greens, and could work together in a coalition. One area of real opposition though, is the Trans-Mountain Pipeline, which the Liberals have ‘green lit’ for a new phase of construction. If scrapped, there are no hard barriers to a Liberal-Green deal.

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Happy Thanksgiving!

Plymouth Rock

Take a moment to be thankful.

For your job, your friends, that you have food to eat and a place to sleep, for the air we breathe and the freedom we have. Be thankful.

The North American holiday of Thanksgiving was born of tragedy. The Mayflower, filled with settlers from England, docked in Plymouth, Massachusetts in December 1620. Of the 102 passengers and around 30 crew on board, only five women of eighteen survived the winter, and around half the men and crew.

The following spring, the Wampanoag, a …

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The underground road to precious freedom for black slaves

This is the sixth of my posts based on a recent tour of the eastern half of the USA. I visited a number of sites relevant to African American history. To mark Black History Month, I am relating some of the things I saw, in the order I saw them.

I had low expectations for Detroit. You hear stories about bankruptcy and violence. In fact, I found Detroit to be a wonderful city. It is beautifully spaced out. Rather than having all its prominent buildings in the centre of the city, they are spread out across the urban area. The heritage of the wealth of the automative industry has bestowed some wonderful buildings to Detroit.

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What the Liberal Democrats could learn from Obama, Sanders and Trudeau

Justin Trudeau by Canadian Pacific CCL FlickrAs a young American woman who has interned in the Canadian Parliament, volunteered for American campaigns and is now working in the British Parliament, it has been interesting following the 2015 British Parliamentary elections through a variety of lenses. The recent change of government in Canada and the ongoing presidential election in the United States seem worth unpacking, in order to delve into possible lessons which could be learned by Liberal Democrats from these other spaces.

I propose that there are lessons worth learning from two American Democrats, President Obama and Bernie Sanders, as well as Canada’s new Prime Minister Trudeau. For the former, the reasons may be self-evident. President Obama rose from a relatively unknown position into an incredibly influential presidency. For Bernie Sanders, it is worth understanding how another political outsider has once again come to challenge Hillary Clinton in her bid for the presidency. Though he will likely lose the primary, Mr. Sanders has been a formidable opponent from a stance that rarely would be noticed in the United States. With regards to the Canadian elections, I would like to explore the ways in which a party can move from a third-party position into a powerful government in the way the Liberals have done under Trudeau.

There are three characteristics which President Obama and Bernie Sanders have shared in their campaigns: they excel in grassroots organising, they offer clear messages of hope, and their platforms are cohesive. The first point, grassroots organising, is something which Liberal Democrats would benefit from greatly. Bringing staunch supporters out to volunteer in elections is a powerful force to reckon with, especially in university areas. In my home state, Ohio, both Obama and Sanders effectively coordinated university students to participate in the electoral process as vocal volunteers. From what I have seen, it seems that the Liberal Democrats could recruit a significant amount of volunteers from universities for the 2020 elections. This is a lesson sorely learned by the Liberal Democrats in the aftermath of the 2010 elections.  Understanding the implications of reversing stances on university tuition prices is a hard lesson, but it does offer a high incentive for maintaining consistency in the future.

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A morning at the White House

A frisson of expectation sweeps the crowd as the tannoy crackles to life and the announcer declares “Ladies and Gentlemen, the President of the United States.” The honour guard comes to attention, the band strikes up Hail to the Chief and the most powerful leader in the world emerges. And when moments later, a black SUV sweeps round the drive and stops in front of the White House to deposit Justin Trudeau, the new Canadian Prime Minister… well, perhaps only a visit from the Queen herself would top Washington DC’s current level of excitement.

This was the scene on the South Lawn of the White House as President Barack Obama welcomed his Canadian counterpart to the capital of the United States yesterday. Clutching my ticket, I had joined the great and good of Washington in a line that stretched halfway round the block, excited to be part of the occasion. Three ID and security checks later and I was in.

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LDVideo: The first day in office of a Liberal Prime Minister

This is not the stuff of far flung fantasy. This actually happened, this week, in Canada, to a Liberal Party that’s fought its way back from devastating election defeats.

Here are two things that you should watch and take heart from.

First of all, a 24 minute behind the scenes video filmed by CBC of Justin Trudeau’s first day in office. In parts it has the feel of an episode of The West Wing, but our absolute favourite moment is when he puts down the reporter for being disparaging about the Cabinet travelling on a bus, reminding him that this is how many Canadians get to work. Enjoy.

Secondly, his great response when asked why he’d produced a gender balanced Cabinet. “Because it’s 2015.” By half way through the second decade of the 21st century, you would expect equality and it’s great that he (and Nicola Sturgeon) have set such good examples while remembering that Nick Clegg couldn’t even put one woman in the UK Cabinet when he had the chance.

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+++Liberals sweep to power

The Liberal Party has swept to power, winning 184 seats out of 338, an overall majority of 30. The election platform included such policies as

  • Cutting income taxes for the middle-classes while increasing them for the wealthy
  • Running deficits for three years to pay for infrastructure spending
  • Doing more to address environmental concerns over the controversial Keystone oil pipeline
  • Taking more Syrian refugees; pulling out of bombing raids against Islamic State while bolstering training for Iraqi forces
  • Legalising marijuana
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A powerful message from Canada’s Liberal leader in response to Wednesday’s shootings

Canada flag License Some rights reserved by archer10 (Dennis)What would you want a liberal to say in the wake of shocking and violent events in your country? It must be something pretty close to Justin Trudeau’s words, full of dignity, wisdom and empathy.

Watch the video and see the excerpt below:

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The Independent View: Pierre Trudeau and the Just Society – lessons for Canadian liberals today

Canada flag License Some rights reserved by archer10 (Dennis)The general election expected to be held in Canada next year will be a decisive one for the Lib Dem’s Canadian counterpart, the Liberal Party of Canada, as it faces the prospect of returning to office after more than eight years in the political wilderness.

With a recent poll showing the governing Conservatives trailing behind the Liberals, the party’s leader Justin Trudeau stands a good chance of becoming the first Canadian Liberal prime minister since 2006.

However, if Justin Trudeau …

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Opinion: Ontario Liberals show real Grit, win a fourth term and make history with the first elected LGBT Head of Government in the Commonwealth!

Ontario Premier Kathleen WynneCongratulations to our cousins in the Ontario Liberal Party in Canada who, overnight, have won a remarkable fourth term of provincial government and, at the same time, have made history with leader Kathleen Wynne becoming the first elected LGBT Head of Government in the Commonwealth!

Going into the election, the Liberals had been in a period of minority government and Wynne had taken over-a year ago from the by-then unpopular Premier Dalton McGuinty.

The party has been in Government in Ontario since 2003 and some pundits had predicted that the opposition Progressive Conservatives (I know, what an oxymoron, right?) would return to Government for the first time in over a decade…but Wynne and her team had other ideas!

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