Justin Trudeau gets away with his gamble

After a $600 million election that Liberal Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau didn’t need to call, voters have delivered virtually the same result as in 2019. Trudeau failed to re-gain the majority he won in 2015. In fact, his Liberal Party is likely to lose a seat and the Conservatives will gain a seat.

I had been hoping that the New Democrats would have won more seats to anchor the Liberals to a more progressive path, but they are projected to only gain 3 seats.

The Greens will stay on two but not the same two as last time as their vote share fell. They held their former leader’s seat in Vancouver and gained one in Ontario where the Liberal candidate was not supported by the party after a scandal but there was no time to replace him on the ballot. Internal divisions led to them losing their original two and having a pretty miserable election. Their leader will not be in Parliament as she went from 2nd (in a by-election) to 4th in her seat.  Thanks to Em Dean for providing me with more detailed information.

The odious UKIP style People’s Party have more than doubled their vote.

From CBC in Canada:

Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau has won enough seats in this 44th general election to form another minority government — with voters signalling Monday they trust the incumbent to lead Canada through the next phase of the pandemic fight by handing him a third mandate with a strong plurality.

After a 36-day campaign and a $600-million election, the final seat tally doesn’t look very different from the composition of the House of Commons when it was dissolved in early August — prompting even more questions about why a vote was called during a fourth wave of the pandemic in the first place.

Trudeau will be relieved this morning as the campaign has been a rocky one for him and the Liberals. He has done himself no favours and was lucky to get away with a reckless gamble.

This is a disappointment for him, but it could have been a lot worse. The Conservatives are trying to do a David Cameron and pretend that they are lovely centrist types, but we know from the British experience that they soon revert to type.

Let’s hope that this experience teaches Trudeau a bit of humility….


* Caron Lindsay is Editor of Liberal Democrat Voice and blogs at Caron's Musings

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  • Laurence Cox 21st Sep '21 - 11:07am

    It does seem strange to me that Trudeau’s Liberals and the New Democratic Party don’t form a coalition Government, which would have given them a comfortable majority (and would have done so even before the election). Are they afraid that bringing the NDP into government might lead to them becoming more popular and the Liberals losing seats to them?

  • John Marriott 21st Sep '21 - 12:42pm

    What a waste of time and money and surely an advert for a Fixed Term Parliament Act in Ottawa. To repeat the phrase that Justin’s old man famously used in the chamber against the 1970s’ Conservative Leader, Robert Stansfield; it’s all a load of “Fuddle duddle”!

  • James Moore 21st Sep '21 - 1:08pm

    To answer Laurence’s point, formal coalitions are rare in Canada. The largest party typically governs and negotiates with the smaller parties on key issues before bringing forward legislation.

    As a ‘third party’ the NDP tend to like their independence and fear close identification with the other parties may damage their brand – there may be a lesson for the British Liberals here!

    I thought the comment about Trudeau needing to be taught a ‘bit of humility’ was a little uncalled for. He is probably the most successful Liberal leader of the Western world and stays in power for another term, despite taking a gamble that didn’t pay off.

  • FPTP system. Far nore unfair than in this country.
    Cons again get more votes than the Liberals but are 40 seats behind!!!
    Looking at the results on a map you get the impression trhe Cons are more a national party than the Liberals, take away the huge concentration of Liberal seats in smaller constituencies in Toronto and Montreal Island and the seat difference dissipates.
    Trudeau has promised electoral reform again, but this time not PR which the Liberals proposed and then dropped once they got power.
    The Liberals should continue on their own and challenge the others to bring them down, if they don’t like what is being proposed..

  • Caron the “0dious” PPC may have won Trudeau the election, taking crucial votes from the Cons in particular.

  • Looking at individual riding results what does impress me is the high number of candidates, from all parties except PPC, who have a family background of migrating to Canada over the last 40-50 years. Including the NDP leader.
    We should all learn from this.

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