In a world still reeling from rapid geopolitical shifts, the question of national security and strategic autonomy has never been more pressing for the United Kingdom. The post-Second World War era of a relatively stable, rules-based international order – underpinned by multilateral institutions, shared norms, and strong Western alliances – is being challenged on multiple fronts. Nowhere was this tension clearer than in Mark Carney’s landmark address at the World Economic Forum in Davos last week, where he delivered a stark analysis of the changing global order and what it means for middle powers like the UK.

Carney’s central thesis was that the international system is not merely evolving – it is rupturing. For decades, the UK, alongside its allies, benefited from what was labelled a rules-based order: predictable trade, collective security, open sea-lanes, and multilateral dispute resolution. But that era is increasingly giving way to a world dominated by great power rivalry and economic coercion. According to Carney, we are now in “the midst of a rupture, not a transition” – a point that resonates as global leaders grapple with the reality of a more volatile geopolitical landscape.

This rupture is characterised by powerful states leveraging economic integration as a strategic tool and weapon — using tariffs, supply-chain dependencies, financial infrastructure, and energy ties to bend smaller partners to their aims. Carney warned that continuing to rely on outdated assumptions of mutual benefit is no longer tenable when integration itself can become a source of subordination.

Much of the backdrop to Carney’s analysis is the reality of the international leadership exerted by the United States under President Donald Trump, whose policies have unsettled long-standing diplomatic norms. Trump’s aggressive trade stance – including tariff threats tied to strategic interests such as Greenland – and his readiness to prioritise unilateral action over multilateral cooperation have highlighted the fragility of previous assumptions about Western unity.

While Carney refrained from naming Trump directly in his speech, the subtext was unmistakable: the security environment that the UK has long relied upon – anchored by predictable American leadership – is no longer guaranteed. The UK can no longer take for granted that allies will act within established norms or that economic integration will safeguard its interests.

What this means for the UK and for us as Liberal Democrats

For the UK, Carney’s message carries several critical implications.

Carney emphasised that when the rules don’t protect you, you must protect yourself. For the UK, this means investing in domestic resilience – from energy and critical infrastructure to food security and defence capabilities. Without strategic autonomy in these core areas, the UK’s prosperity and security could be leveraged by external pressures.

Carney called on middle powers – nations like Canada, European states, and the UK – to deepen cooperation with one another. The idea is not to replace traditional alliances but to supplement them with robust, flexible partnerships that can withstand external pressure and promote shared values such as human rights, sustainable development, and sovereignty.

For the UK, this means reaffirming commitments to NATO, strengthening ties with EU countries, and nurturing new coalitions around trade, technology, and security.

Carney’s compelling phrase, “if you are not at the table, you are on the menu,” captures a fundamental truth for the UK’s foreign policy. In an era where geopolitical influence is shifting, the UK must ensure it has a seat at every major forum and negotiation – whether that be economic blocs, security alliances, or energy and technology discussions. Failure to do so risks marginalisation and leaves the UK vulnerable to decisions taken by larger powers without its input.

Perhaps the most profound part of Carney’s message was the call for honesty about the world as it is – not as we wish it to be. Nostalgia for the old order is not a strategy. For the UK, acknowledging the new geopolitical reality is the first step toward building a security framework that is resilient, principled, and forward-looking.

Securing the UK in this changing world means adapting not just economically or militarily, but also intellectually – recognising that global stability now depends on cooperation among middle powers, a diversified web of partnerships, and a willingness to act proactively rather than reactively.

In this respect, Mark Carney was right: the old paradigms of international order are breaking down, and the UK must seize this moment to redefine its role in a world where strength and diplomacy must work hand in hand to secure liberal values.

We as Liberal Democrats must take the lead in a political landscape that contains such vast disparity on defence ideology and thus its investment. We have allowed the UK military to dwindle into little more than a defence force, not capable of two mid-sized operations at once – we couldn’t do Basra and Afghanistan at the same time, and we could barely mange Helmand. Defence spending must increase; hard power and self-reliance are fundamental for the security of our critical infrastructure, boarders and energy provisions. We must wake up and invest, or as Carney said, be “on the menu”.

* Edward Marsh is a local council candidate in Merton, member of the Liberal Democrats business club, Head of Government & Defence at S&P Global & Chairman of The Big Paint Charity.