Author Archives: Paul Walter

Anorak’s corner – House of Commons Library research briefing on the 2024 general election

Ever since I was in short trousers, I have spent a few weeks after each general election, poring over the results. Normally, I have managed to get a copy of the Telegraph printed pamphlet of the seat-by-seat results. This time, I’m going to need a lot longer to digest the tumultuous results (so far, winning Epsom and Ewell is taking a while to get my head round!) and I couldn’t find a Telegraph (or other newspaper) pamphlet. I just can’t do it online – I need to highlight and mark the text.

But never fear, the House of Commons library has come to the rescue with its “research briefing” on the 2024 general election results. This includes a colourful pdf (which I have had bound) and a range of spreadsheets.

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Photo flashback – victory for the chip eaters by 60,997 votes

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I just happened to be going through some old photos – as you do. I chanced upon this photo from our Bournemouth conference last September. Those of us who have attended the odd conference know the drill – get together some candidates from our target seats for a fun photo on the sea front and then watch them not being elected in the subsequent general election.

It is all depressingly familiar – except this time all the candidates (including two sitting MPs) in this photo were elected – with combined majorities of 60,997!

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Data-based analysis on the LibDem performance in the general election

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The Week in Polls* has an interesting analysis on the LibDem performance in the general election, entitled “7 things we know about the LibDems and 2 things we don’t“.

Some headlines: We won because of health, bar charts and local candidates pointing at things. Our targetting was strong and there was large tactical voting, particularly in the last few days before voting.

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Blair-era veterans given ministerial roles – Starmer does what we should have done in coalition

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Keir Starmer is bringing a few Blair era veterans back into government:

-Jacqui Smith as Higher Education Minister, first elected 27 years ago
-Douglas Alexander as Business Minister, also first elected 27 years ago and now re-elected at the recent election
-Pat McFadden as Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, first elected 19 years ago
-Alan Milburn assisting the new Health Secretary, first elected 32 years ago

Between them, those four individuals have a total of 105 years experience in the British parliament/government/public life between them.

Compare that with our first batch of coalition cabinet members (figures as of 2010 when the coalition government was set up):

-Nick Clegg, first elected to the British parliament 5 years previously
-Danny Alexander, first elected to the British parliament 5 years previously
-David Laws, first elected for Yeovil 9 years previously
-Andrew Stunell (OK, I’ll give you that Andrew was a “grey haired” veteran at the time), first elected to the British parliament 13 years previously
-Chris Huhne, first elected to the British parliament 5 years previously.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged and | 17 Comments

Spare a thought for William Hague…

From the University of Bath website:

On the coalition negotiations in May 2010, William Hague is reported to have told his wife, Ffion: ‘I think I’ve just killed the Liberal Democrats.’

Well, William, it seems we have come back to life.

Some personal reflections on the campaign, if I may:

Firstly, I never thought we’d win Newbury outside of a by-election again after dear David Rendel was our MP from 1993 to 2005. During the campaign it became clear that the Tories had, more or less, given up. Two Tory stakeboards were spotted. They didn’t have a stakeboard campaign – this from the party who used to put up hundreds of posters in fields full of sheep throughout the constituency. The Tory GOTV effort on polling day was virtually non-existent. But well done to Lee Dillon and the whole Newbury Lib Dem team for years and years of hard work to get Lee into the House of Commons! It gives me goose-bumps just to say that.

Posted in Op-eds | 7 Comments

The LibDem wins keep on coming…

We’ve won Edinburgh West – well done Christine and team – a majority of 16k!

Westmorland and Lonsdale – Tim and team win by a margin of 21k!

Shropshire North – Helen and team win with a majority of a staggering 15k!

Harpenden and Berkhamstead – LibDem gain with a nearly 11k majority.

St Albans – LibDem hold by a stonking 20k majority

Oxwab – Layla wins by 14kish

Chippenham – LibDem gain by 8k!

Taunton – LibDem gain by 12k

Tiverton and Minehead – LD gain by 3k

Winchester – LD gain by a staggering (nearly) 14k

Lewes – gain by 13k

In other news, Jacob Rees-Mogg has gone!!!

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Thoughts from the ground in Newbury

I’ve been involved in general election campaigns in Newbury since 1987.

I haven’t dared make a forecast about whether we might win the seat this time.

But on the ground, something extraordinary happened. The Tories gave up. They didn’t put any posters up (there were just a couple isolated Tory posters where individuals put up old posters on their property). And on polling day, there was only a very thin Tory knocking up operation in evidence.

Fingers crossed for Lee and team. The Newbury result is due at around 7am.

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We’ve won Wokingham with a majority of over 8k

The outstanding LibDem results are coming so thick and fast it is difficult to keep up. I’m just going “Blimey – we’ve won XXX with a majority of YYY thousands” all the time.

But just hold on, for a moment, to the Wokingham result. We won with a majority of over 8k!!! Well done Clive Jones and team! This is the result of huge effort over many years!

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We appear to have gone to sleep and woken up in Lib Dem heaven

I’ve woken up after a four hour sleep.

The size of our majorities (eg Cheadle – well done Tom and team!) is just extraordinary. And we are appearing to win seats where I didn’t know we had targets.

Chichester for example. We won it with a majority of over 12k. Looking at my target seats list, we overturned a Tory majority of over 19k and only 4 out of the 13 pre-election MRP surveys said we would win it. So it was very low down on our list of expectations.

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PHOTO SPECIAL: Ed Davey is quite boring, isn’t he?

Some photos from the campaign trail, with thanks to Getty Images – please click on the photo for details and a link to the Getty Images website.


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Doesn’t Rishi Sunak pay people to stop him doing stunts like this?

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With Boris, I often thought that all you needed to know about him is the state of his hair. Having been brought up in a household of seven males, we had the morning hair procedure drummed into us. A bit of water, a comb, and do it nicely. All seven of us did it everyday and that was that. We carried a comb in our back pocket to neaten the old barnet during the day. So if someone in public life can’t master the hair neatening procedure then one begins to wonder if they are fit for office.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged | 7 Comments

Postcard from Cheadle

(Above from left to right) Volunteer Colin Eldridge, PPC Tom Morrison and Councillor Mark Jones in Gatley’s Church Road yesterday.

This week I spent a couple of days helping our campaign in Cheadle.

It was great to get stuck in to delivering Focii in the streets of Greater Manchester.

Posted in Campaign Corner | Tagged and | 2 Comments

How our Lib Dem MPs voted on the Tobacco and Vapes Bill (2nd reading)

After a long and thorough debate, the Second Reading of the Tobacco and Vapes Bill has just been overwhelmingly passed by the House of Commons – the voting was 383 for and 67 against.

This is the Bill that will make it illegal for people born in or after 2009 to buy tobacco products in the UK.

Posted in Parliament | Tagged | 41 Comments

Ed Davey: I will vote for lifelong tobacco purchase ban and I hope it passes

There was a twelve minute interview with Ed Davey this morning on BBC Breakfast. Twelve minutes!

You can watch the interview here – move the slider to 01:30:15 (just under halfway through) to see the start.

The exchange started with the news, highlighted by the LibDems, that 72% of car thefts were not attended by the police last year. Ed said the Conservatives are “asleep at the wheel on crime” and that the LibDems would tackle the shortage of detectives.

Posted in News | Tagged , , and | 39 Comments

Lib Dem April fools sail closer to the truth?

Well done to Lib Dem Voice editorial team member Mary Reid, who once again excelled at the subtle April Fools post on this website. “Another bank holiday?” stimulated about 30 comments debating the whys and wherefores of Bank Holidays and Saint Days, down to a spat about the pronunciation of “Æthelthryth”. We did think that proposing a variable bank holiday for the Prime Minister’s Birthday and one for Flora Poil, the “Victorian social reformer” might give the game away.

Party President Mark Pack had me going with his news that the party has a new phone app for leaflet delivery. The article was typically Mark Packish in its attention to detail. It was when I got to the paragraph about leaflet orientation that I checked the date of the article:

But the very best part of the app is the set of icons that appear as you approach each letterbox on your delivery round. Behind the scenes, Connect data (supplemented by data from Wintringham 1) and demographic information from public sources such as the census is used to tell you which way round to orient the leaflet: is the person likely to be at home, and so the leaflet should land on the doormat headline towards the door so that they can easily read it when they come to the door, or is the person likely to be away, and so the leaflet should land headline away from the door, so it’s facing the right way when they come home?

Posted in Party policy and internal matters | Tagged | 5 Comments

Voluntary vacancy on key federal committee

Photo by Jon BallA vacancy is being advertised by the party for a seat on the Federal Finance and Resources Committee.

This is a key committee which scrutinises the party’s accounts, in co-operation with HQ staff. It also examines the way the party’s resources, including employees, are being deployed. For both subjects, the group spots areas where improvement is needed and monitors progress. Decisions are made relative the handling of the party’s money and people.

I’ve served on this committee. I enjoyed working in collaboration with the party’s excellent staff and was able to use some of the knowledge and experience I garnered during a career in operational finance.

Posted in Party policy and internal matters | Tagged | 1 Comment

Big swing to Lib Dems in Sheffield Hallam (by-election results 2)

The victorious Sheffield team last night

Congratulations to new councillor Will Sapwell, who won the Stannington by-election yesterday in Sheffield Hallam constituency. And what a great swing from Labour…


Thank you to Thillainathan Haren for being the Lib Dem candidate in Tooting Broadway, Wandsworth, London:

Posted in News | Tagged | 4 Comments

By-election results 1 – Conservatives lose last seat in Richmond

There were six principal authority council by-elections yesterday, and there were Liberal Democrat candidates in all those contests.

After winning 39 of the 54 seats in Richmond-upon-Thames in 2014, the Tories yesterday lost their last seat on the council!:

We also held a second seat up for grabs in the borough last night:

This is part one of our by-election coverage this week – you can find part two here.

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Annie Nightingale – fantastic, brave radio pioneer

It’s worth listening to the Desert Island Discs of DJ Annie Nightingale, who passed away this week (not least because it contains one of the best put-downs of the Daily Mail ever).

I first started listening to Annie Nightingale when she did “Sounds of the 70s” on Radio 1 in the evenings with Alan Black. It was a revelation in radio, not least because it was a rare Radio 1 show in crystal clear stereo FM. The music and sensible presentation style just seemed so refreshing, in contrast to the saccharin daytime output of Radio 1.

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Aotearoa New Zealand pivots….backwards?

The Aotearoa New Zealand Parliament in Wellington

Visiting close family, I have recently been privileged to visit Aotearoa New Zealand.

Several things I saw impressed on me, once again, as to how forward-looking the country has been and is.

We visited the Auckland Women’s Suffrage Memorial which commemorates the successful 1893 petition which made Aotearoa New Zealand the first self-governing country in the world to enshrine in law the right for women to vote in parliamentary elections. Similarly, in Wellington there were several prominent streets and memorials named after Kate Sheppard, the leading suffragist.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged | 1 Comment

Government announces new plan to help those impacted by ME/CFS

There’s been a recent government announcement about ME/CFS which deserves some attention.

As the government says:

Plans to help improve the lives of people living with myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome (ME/CFS) have been outlined by the government today and a consultation launched on how best to deliver the plan.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged | 1 Comment

The humbling gratitude of Ukrainians

One word: humbling. That was my feeling as I listened to the remarkable conference speech by Ukrainian MP Kira Rudik on Monday morning. She is leader of Holos, the first Liberal Party to be elected to the Ukrainian Parliament.

All one’s everyday concerns were reduced to insignificance as we heard of the bravery and tenacity of Ukrainians under the most harrowing conditions. Their belief in the survival and eventual flourishing of their country, their incredible solidarity, is absolutely awesome.

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…and we’re back in the hall!

Tim Farron makes the first policy speech of conference this morning

The first policy speech of the first in-person autumn conference since 2019 brought a smile to my face and very positively answered the question “What is Tim Farron for?”

Posted in Conference | Tagged , , and | 1 Comment

Helping Emma and team in Mid Beds

Stephen (left) and François at Flitwick by-election HQ this morning

I’ve helped at the odd by-election (!) but normally I don’t see the candidate during brief visits to the HQ to pick up bundles of Focii.

At Mid Beds this week, I have had a double candidate “I Spy” score. As we were watching “Rookie” on Sunday evening, Emma Holland-Lindsay actually phoned me on our landline phone (which these days is a bit like the Carlsberg complaints phone).

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Conference papers now available online

All the papers for the Bournemouth Conference (September 23-26) are now available online here.

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Trump Georgia indictment – this is different

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It’s easy to think that the latest Trump indictment in Georgia is more of the same – 33 more charges to add to his existing 78 – and that people have grown numb to all of this.

But the Georgia charges are significantly different in several ways.

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LibLink: Mark Pack on Sunak’s ‘war on woke’

The Guardian has an article asking “Can Sunak’s rightwing war on ‘woke’, migrants and the environment save the Tories?” with contributions from a panel including our own President, Mark Pack:

It is, after all, the Liberal Democrats – not the rightwing populists of Reform – who have taken four seats off the government with record-breaking swings in byelections this parliament. The message from voters to Lib-Dem canvassers in those contests was very consistent. It was about the NHS and the cost of living, about sewage and failing public services. It was about being fed up with the Conservatives, their lockdown parties and their failures on the mainstream issues.

That’s borne out by pollsters too. The cost of living and the NHS are consistently the top-rated issues. Even Conservative voters want the most polluting vehicles to pay higher taxes and Conservatives are more supportive of the 2050 net zero target than voters in general.

Posted in LibLink | Tagged and | 2 Comments

495 Uxbridge voters tip the whole UK climate policy into madness

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Labour’s vote at Uxbridge went down (by-election compared to last general election). Our vote at Frome went up in the same comparison.

Within that context, it is not fanciful to suggest that if Labour had bussed in an extra 10 helpers the day before the Uxbridge by-election, they could well have won it.

So, it is therefore incredibly frustrating to see Rishi Sunak’s behaviour since July 20th.

We have seen “global boiling”, in the words of the UN Secretary General, becoming normal in July. Rhodes burning, Europe melting. The UK, so far, getting off luckily with fresh weather.

Yet, it seems that just 495 voters in Uxbridge have tipped Rishi Sunak (and Keir Starmer) into climate madness.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged , , and | 17 Comments

Somerton and Frome diary – Libby alights on our spatulas!

Photo above – In the Frome HQ, showing off Sarah Dyke’s image and their spatulas, are Holly Gunning (l) and Councillor Emily Pearlstone (r)

2015.

It doesn’t seem a long time ago. That was when I last visited Somerton and Frome to campaign for my good friend, David Rendel, in the general election. It was a mark of the chutzpah of David Rendel that he took on the challenge of Somerton and Frome after being MP for Newbury for 12 years.

In the event, the seat was won, with a large majority, by a Conservative newcomer, one David Warburton.

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Commons vote puts Boris beyond the pale

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It was very important that there was a clear vote in support of the Privileges Committee vote on Boris Johnson’s lying.

354 votes to seven sounds good to me.

But spare a thought for Labour Chief Whip Sir Alan Campbell. If he had not shouted “No! No! No!” in the Speaker’s Ear and then followed it up with the procedural obligation of a “no” vote (he was one of the seven), then there would not have been a vote, which would have been disgraceful.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged , and | 9 Comments
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