American presidential elections in days of yore were pretty simple. We all went to bed at our usual time and then when we woke up in the morning, we knew who was going to be President.

And then Bush v Gore 2000 happened and it all took a bit longer as we learned about things like “Hanging Chads” and how they affected the vote counts in Florida. It took until 12 December until the Supreme Court stopped the recount and Gore conceded the next day.

In 2020, we spent four long nights and three and a half long days constantly refreshing CNN and agonising in WhatsApp chats before it was clear to everyone except Donald Trump and his followers that Joe Biden had won.

This year I’m not sure I have a big enough cushion to hide behind as the results come in. But before we get too absorbed in the details, take a minute to have a good laugh at Kamala’s appearance on last night’s Saturday Night Live. Pitch perfect:

We are probably not going to know for a while after the polls close whether the US will have a President who will respect women’s rights, put more money back in the hands of the poorest and grow the economy, or someone who will give to his billionaire mates, pursue policies that see more women die because they can’t get medical treatment if they have a miscarriage, and threaten US democracy itself.

The conventional wisdom amongst commentators at the moment is that Donald Trump will get his second term in the White House. Let’s hope they have it as wrong as they had it in 2016 when they all thought Hillary was going to win. We have to remember that part of the reason for the Democrats losing back then was because they were so convinced they were going to win that they stopped spending money in the swing states while Donald Trump spent a fortune on wall to wall advertising.

The Democrats are not making that mistake again. The Harris/Walz campaign has been concentrating on the swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada and Arizona. The election will likely be decided on tens of thousands of votes in those places. It’s a bit like how our elections are decided in 100 or so marginal seats across the country except on a bigger scale.

She’s had some help in the past week from Scottish Lib Dem Leader who went out there with some friends (at their own expense) to knock on doors. It’s not the first time he has been out. He turned out to be a good luck charm for Obama in Virginia in 2008. He made some observations on Twitter this week about his trip an the prospects in the election:

The field campaign team there are exceptional but they are utterly exhausted and driving hard for the finish line, I’m proud to know them. They certainly put me to work in getting out the vote.

With over 1k doors knocked across 9 communities in Lackawanna county, PA, I got to see a lot of the Scranton area in stunning autumnal beauty. These are warm, resilient communities, but in many ways they have cause to feel left behind.

This is an exceptionally tight election, everyone knows that, but I’ve never seen tribalism run quite so deep before. Those houses without partisan lawn signs are in the minority and this election is dividing communities and even families, like never before.

A standout highlight for me was getting to meet Tim Walz in person, but above that I will never forget the warmth of the people I met on the doors of Pennsylvania.

My assessment? She can absolutely do it, but turnout is everything.

So with Parliament in recess, I took some leave, went out to help under my own steam & stayed with my lovely sister. Why? Because we all have a stake in this election. Its outcome will impact all of our lives.

Donald Trump has already committed the biggest assault on women’s reproductive rights in my lifetime. He won’t stop there. The LGBTQ+ community, asylum seekers, non white Americans, the press and the fighting men and women of Ukraine will all suffer terribly if he wins.

So too will American freedom and the stability of the international alliance we have relied upon for our own peace and security for generations.

A second Trump presidency would represent a dark future for the US and us all. I couldn’t just sit back and watch that happen.

One of the features of this campaign has been the way that Trump seems to have managed to grab the media headlines with his stunts and comments which derail the Democrats’ messages. Whether it’s about the size of Arnold Palmer’s penis, dishing out fries to his faithful in McDonalds, or having his guest speakers dismiss Puerto Rico as “garbage” Trump has managed to secure much more coverage and discussion than Harris.

The Vice President has been accused of not landing her economic message. I’m not sure that is the case. Her social media and ground campaigns have been saturating swing state voters with her pledge to work for their interests. Trump has been making hay with his claim that nothing went wrong during his presidency and everyone was so much better off. That may be the case. What he isn’t telling you is that the Biden/Harris administration had a huge Build Back Better Bill in the wake of the pandemic which would have given paid family leave and Child Tax Credits to America’s “middle class.” Why did it not get through? Republicans blocked it.

I would have liked to have seen Kamala Harris make a bit more of this and what she could do with a Democrat Congress, but she has run a strong campaign focused on the right issues and the right people.

But Trump’s “you were better off under me” argument is seductive because it taps in to how people feel. I almost choked on my soup when someone I love outed themselves as a Trump supporter for that reason round the lunch table recently. This person, while conservative, or maybe a bit more than conservative, has a long history of supporting women’s reproductive freedom and it was shocking to see them overlook that. However, that person is definitely more politically aligned with Trump so that message may not resonate more widely.

I suspect most people reading this will be keeping everything crossed for a Harris victory. I believe she can do it. Both in 2020 and 2022, pollsters didn’t really pick up on how young women were increasingly motivated to vote Democrat. They may not necessarily want to discuss this with pollsters, or in front of their families, but they got themselves to the polling station. All the predictions in the 2022 midterms were that the Democrats were going to get an absolute pasting and the opposite happened. And their reasons for doing so are compelling. Have a listen to the News Agents special report on abortion (or the lack of it) in Florida and how women are dying because they can’t get the treatment they need to prevent infections after miscarriages because of the anti abortion laws there. It’s really chilling.

There are reasons for optimism and hope, but it’s going to be a bit of a long, sleepless time ahead. And the results will get worse before they get better. The earlier ones tend to favour Trump and it’s not until later on that the larger Democrat votes come in.

However, even if Harris wins by some margin, the chances of Trump accepting this are about as high as me winning the 100 metres at the Olympics.

I haven’t made my mind up whether I am going to sit up all night on Tuesday (thankfully I am not working Wednesday) or whether I’ll get up about 3 when the polls close in the West, to find out what is going on. I and the rest of the team will keep you posted though.

Last time Trump won, it wasn’t the scariest thing that happened that week. My husband had open heart surgery on the day before the election and was still in intensive care after some complications. They couldn’t get his blood pressure back up. I spoke to his nurse first thing Wednesday and told him to tell him Trump had won. That did the trick. But a Donald Trump win this week would cause international chaos, particularly in the Middle East and Ukraine and would result in an even bigger claw back of women’s rights in terms of things like access to contraception and no fault divorce. Look at how his administration rolled back access to birth control last time.

The legions of Democrats getting out the vote have our love and support in the next crucial couple of days.

* Caron Lindsay is Editor of Liberal Democrat Voice and blogs at Caron's Musings