Christine Jardine has written for the Scotsman about how the UK should deal with the second Trump presidency.
Like most Lib Dems, she has focused on the need to strengthen our relationships with our European partners.
The news from the US dampened the mood at Westminster:
Wednesday morning too was cloaked in a cloud of gloom as MPs considered the prospect of an American president whose protectionist instincts and apparently dismissive attitude to Nato and European defence leaves us worried for the future. I do not want contemplate the dread that must have been felt in Ukraine about what it might mean for the support on which their war effort depends.
Then, of course, there are the implications for so many American women and their right to choose what is best for them and their bodies.
We need to work together, at home and with Europe:
World politics is going to be rough in the next few years – and British politics will be increasingly difficult, too. Trump’s victory means that the USA’s role in global affairs will be highly unpredictable. But we can predict that American influence will not be constructive on a range of global issues, from combatting climate change to managing the world economy and containing conflicts, and is unlikely to be affected by consideration for British or European concerns. So how do we respond?
Ed Davey’s first response to Trump’s victory was spot on. We need to defend and promote liberal values and prioritise rebuilding closer relations with our European neighbours. Neither of those are easy. Illiberal movements are gaining ground in many democratic countries, including within the EU. Liberal democracy gains most support when economies are growing, societies are stable and international relations are peaceful. Even without the added complications of an incoherent and unfriendly US Administration, the challenges of preventing catastrophic climate change, of coping with the mass movement of people that climate change and regional conflicts are already driving, of moving towards a sustainable global economy and resisting Chinese and Russian expansionism would be hard to manage – and harder to persuade the British electorate to share the cost.
There will no doubt be a flood of analyses of why a majority of American voters supported Trump. But discontent at the economic and social disruption of their lives, and disillusion with the ‘elites’ who – as they see it – allowed disruptive change to sweep from outside through their communities, were major factors. Those discontents are widespread in Britain as well. The ‘left behind’ in northern and coastal towns feel similarly abandoned by educated elites and multinational corporations. You Gov tracker polls show that the answer to the question ‘Are members of Parliament in touch with the public or not?’ has consistently shown around 70% answering ‘out of touch’ and 10-12% ‘in touch’ over the past five years. Those in the Brexit Referendum who were saying ‘I want my country back’ were expressing a similar sense of loss to Trump supporters who want to ‘Make America Great Again.’
Ed Davey has called on the Government to fix our broken relationship with the EU in his first comments since Donald Trump won the US election. And he did not mince his words about the President-Elect, referring to him as a dangerous, destructive, demagogue.
He said:
This is a dark, dark day for people around the globe. The world’s largest economy and most powerful military will be led by a dangerous, destructive demagogue.
The next President of the United States is a man who actively undermines the rule of law, human rights, international trade, climate action and global security.
Millions of Americans – especially women and minorities – will be incredibly fearful about what comes next. We stand with them.
Families across the UK will also be worrying about the damage Trump will do to our economy and our national security, given his record of starting trade wars, undermining NATO and emboldening tyrants like Putin.
After a surprisingly good sleep, I’ve woken up. I’ve done a quick review of the latest on CNN and the web.
Then I switched over to an excellent BBC documentary called “Scotland – The New Wild”. It is remarkable. It has some excellent footage of basking sharks.
In the past, I have looked to USA for vicarious inspiration. While UK domestic politics has been rather depressing, USA has provided a refreshing relief – some
inkling of a better approach for civic life.
It’s not officially over yet, but it looks very much as though Donald Trump has won the US Presidential election and that the Republicans have won the Senate. And with Supreme Court Justices likely to retire, Trump has the chance to reinforce the already iron grip of conservatives on the Supreme Court.
It’s a very bleak morning. This is the result I have feared for a long time but allowed myself to hope that Kamala Harris might just pull off a victory.
In the 3 months since she became the Republican nominee, she has barely put a foot wrong as a candidate. She’s run a positive, optimistic campaign. She did not repeat the mistakes of 2016 when the Democrats withdrew from the key battleground states because they thought they had won.
If there was anything she could have done better, it was land a hopeful economic message. She also didn’t land the blame on Trump and the Republicans for blocking measures which would have improved people’s economic situation like a child tax credit and paid family leave.
She had to contend also with the Middle East situation. That undoubtedly lost her some votes – and probably from both sides.
Anyway, senior Lib Dems have started to process the news. This is what they are saying on social media:
Layla Moran, until recently our foreign affairs spokesperson:
Votes not yet all in but looks like hate is winning. The implications for security across the globe cannot be underestimated. Ukraine. Middle East. China. The UK will need to reevaluate its geopolitical centre of gravity.
Tim Farron:
Oh well!! 🇺🇸 😱 First thoughts…. The UK now needs to do one thing the left/liberals won’t like (establish strong early relationships with the Trump administration) and one thing the right won’t like (scrap all barriers to trade with Europe/increase military co-operation).
Mike Martin:
The UK immediately needs to:
– Increase defence spending rapidly (rather than shrinking its army)
– Focus its military strategy on deterring Russian aggression in Europe (rather than confronting ‘global threats’)
– Work with European allies to defend Europe under a NATO that doesn’t have US support (rather than assuming that America guarantees European security).
Chris Coughlan:
With the geopolitical shock of a likely Trump win the UK needs to move immediately back closer to our European allies- including reopening the issue of the single market
Freddie Van Mierlo
As the results of the US Presidential election still come in, the U.K. must urgently consider its position in Europe and our security. Slava Ukraini
Vikki Slade
This is just devastating – the world is moving in a scary way & I fear for all those vulnerable groups in USA but across the world.
Why would a country fall for such a con?
Since my last update at the back of 4, the outlook for Kamala Harris has become a lot bleaker. Trump is ahead in all of the battleground states and it looks like he is on course to win the popular vote.
It’s not over yet, but it’s not where anyone of a liberal disposition would want us to be at this stage of the count.
What’s worse is that it looks like the Republicans will have control of the Senate and the House is a bit of a toss up.
If you need reminding, Donald Trump is a convicted felon who refused to accept his defeat in 2021, leading to an insurrection which he encouraged. He tried to get his then Vice President to refuse to certify the results of the election. He has been ordered to pay $83 million to E Jean Carroll after he called her a liar for accusing him of sexually assaulting her. He still has outstanding court cases relating to the 2020 election and the January 6 insurrection.
When he was last in office, he appointed 3 conservative Supreme Court Justices who overturned the historic Roe vs Wade ruling which guaranteed a federal right to abortion. This has led to abortion bans in many states which are so stringent that women who have miscarriages are being denied life-saving procedures.
I have just woken up and am catching up on how things are going.
And it’s not looking good, to be honest.
At this time in 2020, it didn’t look that good either and then it got better. However, CNN’s John King is now looking at Georgia and is saying that it looks more like 2016, when Trump won than 2020 when he eventually lost. He says it is possible that Harris can win the state, but “you would rather be Donald Trump in Georgia right now.” Harris is underperforming Biden’s 2020 result in 28 of the 159 counties.
The battleground is now very much in the 3 “rust belt” states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. At this point, Trump is ahead in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania but there’s still a while to go. The “blue wall” is going to be as crucial in the US election as it was in ours.
The Harris campaign does not expect the contest to be resolved tonight.
The CNN exit polls for Pennsylvania show higher responses for voters being concerned about reproductive rights and the state of democracy, compared to the numbers in Georgia and North Carolina.
Indications are that Philadelphia has seen higher than expected turnout, particularly in areas with high populations of those of Puerto Rican heritage.
American presidential elections in days of yore were pretty simple. We all went to bed at our usual time and then when we woke up in the morning, we knew who was going to be President.
And then Bush v Gore 2000 happened and it all took a bit longer as we learned about things like “Hanging Chads” and how they affected the vote counts in Florida. It took until 12 December until the Supreme Court stopped the recount and Gore conceded the next day.
In 2020, we spent four long nights and three and a half long days constantly refreshing CNN and agonising in WhatsApp chats before it was clear to everyone except Donald Trump and his followers that Joe Biden had won.
This year I’m not sure I have a big enough cushion to hide behind as the results come in. But before we get too absorbed in the details, take a minute to have a good laugh at Kamala’s appearance on last night’s Saturday Night Live. Pitch perfect:
We are probably not going to know for a while after the polls close whether the US will have a President who will respect women’s rights, put more money back in the hands of the poorest and grow the economy, or someone who will give to his billionaire mates, pursue policies that see more women die because they can’t get medical treatment if they have a miscarriage, and threaten US democracy itself.
The conventional wisdom amongst commentators at the moment is that Donald Trump will get his second term in the White House. Let’s hope they have it as wrong as they had it in 2016 when they all thought Hillary was going to win. We have to remember that part of the reason for the Democrats losing back then was because they were so convinced they were going to win that they stopped spending money in the swing states while Donald Trump spent a fortune on wall to wall advertising.
The Democrats are not making that mistake again. The Harris/Walz campaign has been concentrating on the swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada and Arizona. The election will likely be decided on tens of thousands of votes in those places. It’s a bit like how our elections are decided in 100 or so marginal seats across the country except on a bigger scale.
She’s had some help in the past week from Scottish Lib Dem Leader who went out there with some friends (at their own expense) to knock on doors. It’s not the first time he has been out. He turned out to be a good luck charm for Obama in Virginia in 2008. He made some observations on Twitter this week about his trip an the prospects in the election:
The field campaign team there are exceptional but they are utterly exhausted and driving hard for the finish line, I’m proud to know them. They certainly put me to work in getting out the vote.
With over 1k doors knocked across 9 communities in Lackawanna county, PA, I got to see a lot of the Scranton area in stunning autumnal beauty. These are warm, resilient communities, but in many ways they have cause to feel left behind.
This is an exceptionally tight election, everyone knows that, but I’ve never seen tribalism run quite so deep before. Those houses without partisan lawn signs are in the minority and this election is dividing communities and even families, like never before.
A standout highlight for me was getting to meet Tim Walz in person, but above that I will never forget the warmth of the people I met on the doors of Pennsylvania.
My assessment? She can absolutely do it, but turnout is everything.
Liberal Democrats will be hoping that the nightmare of the US presidential campaign will be over on November 5th, with a clear win for Kamala Harris, accepted by Donald Trump, leading Republicans and state and federal courts. But at present that looks the least likely outcome. More likely by far will be either a contested result, after chaotic events during the voting and state counts, or a narrow Trump victory with chaotic consequences for US politics and foreign policy. Either will have major implications for British politics and foreign policy.
The continuing rumble of opinion polls suggests a virtual tie between Harris and Trump, with the outcome dependent on who turns out among the small minority of undecideds. Challenges to names on voting registers are under way in several states. Counting may well be disrupted; there were some assaults on election counts four years ago, and the atmosphere has become more fraught since then. Republican local organisations are ready to use the courts to challenge any contestable declaration or hint of malpractice. We may not be sure who has won for some time. And the consequences of a Trump win are as uncertain as the candidate’s utterances have become. So how should we react to what will be an assault on the principles of liberal democracy and on the transatlantic partnership which has been at the core of the UK’s position in the world since 1941?
One Liberal Democratic theme, I suggest, must be to remind disillusioned citizens in this country of the importance of constitutional institutions and limited government, and the dangers of sliding down the road towards populist rule. Britain has just emerged from several years of chaotic government, with a populist prime minister attempting to prevent Parliament from returning from a recess when he had been in office himself for only s few months. We have witnessed right-wing attacks on our supreme court, an Elections Act that lifted constraints on political donations and restricted the autonomy of the Electoral Commission, and Conservative ministers supporting conspiracy theories about ‘liberal elites’. We now have a Labour government which has won the most disproportional parliamentary majority since 1832: 63.4% of MPs from 33.7% of the votes cast, on a worryingly low turnout of 58%. Public trust in ‘Westminster politics’ has sunk to the lowest recorded point since opinion surveys began. The potential for an anti-democratic backlash, if this government fails to improve both economic growth and public services, is high.
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