Liberal Democrats will be hoping that the nightmare of the US presidential campaign will be over on November 5th, with a clear win for Kamala Harris, accepted by Donald Trump, leading Republicans and state and federal courts.  But at present that looks the least likely outcome.  More likely by far will be either a contested result, after chaotic events during the voting and state counts, or a narrow Trump victory with chaotic consequences for US politics and foreign policy.  Either will have major implications for British politics and foreign policy.

The continuing rumble of opinion polls suggests a virtual tie between Harris and Trump, with the outcome dependent on who turns out among the small minority of undecideds.  Challenges to names on voting registers are under way in several states.  Counting may well be disrupted; there were some assaults on election counts four years ago, and the atmosphere has become more fraught since then.  Republican local organisations are ready to use the courts to challenge any contestable declaration or hint of malpractice.  We may not be sure who has won for some time.  And the consequences of a Trump win are as uncertain as the candidate’s utterances have become.  So how should we react to what will be an assault on the principles of liberal democracy and on the transatlantic partnership which has been at the core of the UK’s position in the world since 1941?   

One Liberal Democratic theme, I suggest, must be to remind disillusioned citizens in this country of the importance of constitutional institutions and limited government, and the dangers of sliding down the road towards populist rule.  Britain has just emerged from several years of chaotic government, with a populist prime minister attempting to prevent Parliament from returning from a recess when he had been in office himself for only s few months.  We have witnessed right-wing attacks on our supreme court, an Elections Act that lifted constraints on political donations and restricted the autonomy of the Electoral Commission, and Conservative ministers supporting conspiracy theories about ‘liberal elites’.  We now have a Labour government which has won the most disproportional parliamentary majority since 1832: 63.4% of MPs from 33.7% of the votes cast, on a worryingly low turnout of 58%.  Public trust in ‘Westminster politics’ has sunk to the lowest recorded point since opinion surveys began.  The potential for an anti-democratic backlash, if this government fails to improve both economic growth and public services, is high.

With media here and in the USA focussing on breaches in democratic behaviour across the USA, we have the chance to draw public attention to the weaknesses of British democracy.  The Labour government has so far shown itself happy to take over the executive powers that Boris Johnson and Liz Truss misused, and sideline Parliament as far as possible.  Government whips have told their MPs that they should not think of amending legislation; appointment to Select Committees have been tightly controlled.   There’s no sign of any effort to revive local democracy across England, after repeated reorganisation, shrinking of functions and a long-term squeeze on funding.  Manifesto promises to tighten controls on political finance, lobbying and corruption have not yet led to proposals for action.  There’s plenty for us to campaign on.

Britain’s place in the world has rested, since 1941, on the claim of a special relationship with the United States.  That’s become something of a myth in recent years, as US attention has turned away from Europe to the Middle East and Pacific and as Britain’s diplomatic and defence capabilities have shrunk; but it was nevertheless the foundation for the Brexiteers’ vision of ‘Global Britain’ standing with its American partner, apart from Europe.  A Trump victory would kill that vision.  A contested Democratic victory, with a Californian President struggling to contain disordered migration from Latin America, would be less damaging, but still leave the UK dependent on our relations with our European neighbours for an effective voice in Washington. I’ve already seen one think tank suggesting that a Trump presidency would force other advanced democracies – in Europe and Asia – to concert their international policies without such an unpredictable American presence.  Closer alignment of British foreign, defence and international economic policies with Europe would be essential.

Maybe the nightmare will pass, and President Harris will be accompanied by a Democratic majority in Congress.  But we need to be ready to respond to a different outcome – and to tell the British public, and the other political parties, what responses this country will need to make.

* William Wallace is LibDem peer, a former vice-chair of the Federal Policy Committee and convenor of the party's 1997 manifesto team.