Tag Archives: general election 2024

Data-based analysis on the LibDem performance in the general election

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The Week in Polls* has an interesting analysis on the LibDem performance in the general election, entitled “7 things we know about the LibDems and 2 things we don’t“.

Some headlines: We won because of health, bar charts and local candidates pointing at things. Our targetting was strong and there was large tactical voting, particularly in the last few days before voting.

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Look after your candidate

This is a long campaign, with more than another week to go. We’re no doubt all getting a bit tired, but keyed up by the feeling that things are going very well in our target seats, and that Ed Davey is coming across as the most human and likeable of the contending leaders. But don’t forget the strain that an election places on parliamentary candidates. All of us need to care for our candidates, make sure that they eat regularly and sleep enough, are supported by others when campaigning – and thanked and cherished when the campaign ends.

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“You can get through if you’ve got love” – a Party Election Broadcast with a difference

Love and tenderness are not words you generally associate with Party Election Broadcasts.

Our one, to be broadcast tonight is the exception. Ed Davey tells his story of life as a carer for his mum and his son. He talks about the millions in similar situations, keeping going with love. That, he says, is who I will fight for every day. It’s just incredible.

From The Guardian

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Why we need to hold the biggest autumn conference ever

When the members consultation for the big question over Autumn Conference came out and I then heard from those already asked to make decisions on behalf of Federal Board on the matter, I was confused that one of the core arguments from HQ was around the effect that holding Conference could have on the party’s election expenses if it is too close to a General Election.

A very quick google search led me to what the law has to say on the subject, which is that in the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000 Schedule 8 (Campaign expenditure: qualifying expenses) 1. (8) states “For the purposes of section 72(2) the expenses falling within this Part of this Schedule are expenses incurred in respect of any of the matters set out in the following list…. (8) Rallies and other events, including public meetings (but not annual or other party conferences) organised so as to obtain publicity in connection with an election campaign or for other purposes connected with an election campaign.”

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Liberal Democrat conference will “fire starting pistol” on General Election campaign

Liberal Democrat Deputy Leader Daisy Cooper has said the party will be using their Autumn Conference in Bournemouth this weekend to “fire the starting pistol” on its General Election campaign.

The Liberal Democrats are looking to build on their four historic by-election wins and major local election gains in formerly safe Conservative areas.

Liberal Democrat MPs will today hold a Blue Wall summit in Bournemouth with top candidates in marginal seats, discussing their strategy to win more Conservative seats and elect MPs who will act as local champions for their communities.

On Sunday, the Liberal Democrats will become the first party to adopt …

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Accelerating economic decline and the political long game

Conservatives of all shades seem resigned to being in opposition after the next General Election. Apart from minimising losses by trying to trip up Kier Starmer, what is the strategy ? What are they thinking about the future, and are there any useful potential implications for other parties ?

The idea gaining traction amongst some senior Conservatives is that, since the economic fundamentals are so bad, conditions for almost all of the population will continue to deteriorate during 2024 and 2025. 

Therefore it is better to get Starmer and the Labour Party into government as early as politically possible. The logic goes that after six months or so, high expectations of a Labour government will lead to disappointment, and Labour will start to be blamed … initially for not reversing the decline, but then gradually for the decline itself.

Adding to this idea amongst some Conservatives is the view that a Starmer-led Labour Government, boxed in by right wing authoritarian factions, public sector trade unions, Corbyn supporters, and ‘internationalised’ donors, is not in a position by itself to work out how to manage the continuing decline, let alone reverse it. This will result in a Starmer government relying heavily on Treasury and Bank of England officials to handle the worsening crisis; the same folk who have brought the UK to this point in the first place, it is claimed. 

Therefore, the view goes, the scene is set for a new and refreshed Conservative Party back in government soon. This seems to be the leading Tory ‘long game’ strategy; by the time the next election comes along three to five years from now the public will be blaming the new 2024 government.

This strategy is clearly predicated on three main things.

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