NATO

The NATO summit was a wild diplomatic roller coaster ride. But then, how could it be otherwise with President Donald J. Trump in attendance.

Ankara was another example of his negotiating style: Start with the maximalist position delivered in the loudest and most belligerent style and then gradually back away from that and claim a happy agreement which is probably nowhere near the truth.

Trump arrived demanding Denmark give him Greenland. If the Danes refused, he would withdraw all US troops from Europe. He also said that the US was ending all trade with Spain because of Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s refusal to let Trump use American airbases for attacks on Iran, or even to allow him to use Spanish airspace. Finally, he attacked Iranians “as vicious scum” and again criticised NATO allies for refusing to help him in the Middle East.

It didn’t work. Denmark, backed by the rest of the alliance, stood firm on Greenland and the Europeans are turning a deaf ear and blind eye to his rants about Iran. Trump started the war. He can finish it.

Spain is more interesting. US companies have billions invested in Spain and the trade between the two countries runs into billions more. Ending trade is not that simple and is self-defeating. Trump has instructed lawyers to come up with a plan. They will likely come up with some form of selective tariffs, but even that is difficult because of Spain’s membership of the EU.

What Trump achieved in Ankara was more headlines that he thinks made him look good for his MAGA base. What the rest of the Alliance achieved is confirmation that they are right to increase defence spending; become less dependent on American-built weaponry; become politically more independent of America and to continue to work towards becoming a separate Western political pillar supported by their own military-industrial complex.

Ukraine

Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky went to Ankara hoping to buy more American Patriot missile systems. He left with a licence to manufacture them.

For months Donald Trump’s approach to Ukraine has been characterised by pressure on Kyiv. He has attacked Zelensky, paused aid, presented himself as the equidistant honest broker between Russia and Ukraine when he was leaning heavily towards Russia.

Then came Ankara. Trump publicly praised Zelensky. He spoke of his “very good relationship” with the Ukrainian leader. And then…Trump presents Ukraine with the gift of the license to manufacture Patriot air defence missiles in Ukraine.

Ukraine now ceases to be merely a consumer of Western weaponry (although its drone manufacturers were also steering Ukraine towards weapons independence) and becomes a producer of Western weapons. The licence to produce inside Ukraine also means that replacement missiles and components can be manufactured and moved more quickly to the frontline.

The license also represents another step towards integrating Ukraine into the Western defence-industrial base without having to grant it NATO membership.

But why the change in Trump’s policy? Mainly because the gods of war are starting to move to Ukraine’s side. For years, Vladimir Putin had Trump convinced that he was “holding the cards” in the Ukraine war. That there was no way that the Russian steam roller could lose.

Ukraine is not winning. But neither is it losing. The Russians continue to throw waves of suicidal attacks against a seemingly impenetrable Ukrainian frontline. Meanwhile the Ukrainians have started to score points with long-range drone attacks on Russian oil installations and factories.

Petrol is now rationed across Russia. There are long queues to buy the maximum daily allowance of 20 or 30 litres. Food prices are rising rapidly. Last month the price of potatoes rose 4.5 percent. Some farmers say they will be unable to harvest their crops if fuel shortages continue. There are internet outages and rumours that the Kremlin is planning a full war mobilisation which will mean across the board conscription. Many young Russian men are fleeing the country in anticipation of this possibility.

To Trump it doesn’t matter who wins as long as he is on the winning side. Trump is not certain that Zelensky will triumph. But his decision on Patriot missiles—and the changing rhetoric—are Trump’s way of hedging his bet.

USA

The cause of America’s birthright citizenship won the backing of an unlikely and unwitting champion this week—Donald Trump.

Yes, it is because of the Fourteenth Amendment of the US Constitution that Folarin Balogun was playing for US in the World Cup. The Fourteenth Amendment guarantees American citizenship to anyone born in the United States. Recently the US Supreme Court ruled against Trump’s attempt to end birthright citizenship.

In April 2001, Balogun’s mother Florence and her husband Ben were taking a break from their London jobs to visit Florence’s American relatives. The pair were born in Nigeria but had landed good jobs in the UK.

They were headed back to London and their jobs when the airline said—Stop. Florence had just entered the seventh month of her pregnancy, and the airline had a strict policy of refusing travel to any woman in the final two months of her pregnancy. The result was that Folarin was born in Brooklyn on 3 July 2001 and, according to the Fourteenth Amendment, was entitled to Birthright citizenship.

To increase Trump’s potential embarrassment levels, Balogun did not have to play for the US team. He had a three-way choice. He could play for Nigeria because that is where his parents were born. He could play for England because that is where he was raised and he was a British citizen. Or he could play for the US because of the Fourteenth Amendment.

Everyone thought he would choose England. He represented England on both the Under-17 and Under-21 teams and had been singled out as a star England striker of the future. Balogun knew he had a special talent, and he wanted to play for a team where that talent was most valued and where it could make a difference to the game he loved. The US was a young team that needed good players and valued them. And playing for the US meant he could play a role in establishing soccer in America.

Politicians have always tried to use sport for political purposes. Hitler, Mussolini, Franco, Perón and Putin all understood its propaganda value. Donald Trump has shown that he understands it too. But in Balogun’s case, politics has produced an irony that even Trump must find uncomfortable.

* Tom Arms is foreign editor of Liberal Democrat Voice. He also contributes to “The New World” magazine and lectures on world affairs. He is the author of “America Made in Britain,” two editions of “The Encyclopaedia of the Cold War” and “The Falklands Crisis.”