1. The initial vote counts (because unlike the UK, the USA vote counts are released on the web as they are counted and before a state result) are likely to show that Trump is winning. This is because the postal votes (or “absentee ballots”) are generally counted after election day ballots, and they tend to favour the Democrats. Conversely, electyion day ballots tend to favour the Republicans. So the election day ballots, which tend to be counted first, could show Trump ahead.

2. Donald Trump will come out very early, perhaps as early as an hour after polls close, and declare that he has won, and say that if the count shows that he has lost then there has been Democrat fiddling with the results. Worryingly, this sets the scene for potential street violence.

As to who will win, I have absolutely no idea. At the start of the US presidential election season (which is about eight actual seasons), the experts said that if the election turned out to be a referendum on President Biden’s term in office, then he (or Kamala Harris) would lose. The same experts said that if the election turned out to be a referendum on Donald Trump, then Trump would lose. Kamala Harris does seem to have turned the election into a referendum on Trump, as well as running a pretty flawless campaign.

Allan Lichtman, who has got the winner right in 9 out of 10 of the last Presidential elections, thinks Harris will win.

Statistician and pollster, Natt Silver thinks Trump will win.

I greatly respect and like the prognostications of Jimmy Carville. He tends to be on the money most of the time, and is a ready critic of the Democrats. He reckons that Kamala Harris will win but, by his own admission, his reasons are 100% emotional:

I refuse to believe that the same country that has time and again overcome its mistakes to bend its future toward justice will make the same mistake twice. America overcame Mr. Trump in 2020. I know that we know we are better than this.

Since the pregnant/hanging/dimpled chads debacle of 2000, I have been a multiple-daily visitor to Taegan Goddard’s Political Wire, which provides an excellent stream of the best and most notable US political news and articles. In his recent Trial Balloon podcast with Chris Ribach, Taegan Goddard said he believes Kamala Harris will win, again as a “gut feel” observation.

The polls don’t help us. They show a neck and neck race both nationally and in the seven swing states. Goodness knows whether the pollsters are conciously or unconciously herding together.

One clear area where the Harris campaign has outbatted the Trump campaign is in the area of money and media spending. Harris has significantly outraised and outspent the Trump campaign. They (the Harris campaign) have got their message across in many unusual and inventive ways – like for example a big message on the Las Vegas sphere (see photo below).

Finally, an area which will warm the cockles of the hearts of Liberal Democrat activists: knocking up. Harris has a vast and hugely energetic traditional shoe leather knocking up organisation, run by the Democratic party, based on decades of “trial and error” lessons and local community-level knowledge. Trump has outsourced his “knocking up” to an outside Elon Musk-led Super Pac. Only time will tell if these different methods make a difference.

I was fortunate to have time on my hands when the 2000 pregnant/hanging/dimpled chads episode evolved. I think following this year’s post-election counting and legal twists and turns is likely to be very long and tortuous. So if you have time on your hands, prepare to saturate yourself in the post-election media coverage. If, like most people, you don’t have time on your hands, then prepare to be very frustrated in the quest to learn the identity of the next resident of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, Washington DC.

The Wall Street Journal has a handy guide to crucial swing counties to watch for early clues on election night and the days afterwards.

Here are some tips from Taegan Goddard on early signs to look out for.

You can also run your own result simulation using an Excel Spreadsheet here.

Don’t forget that 33 US Senate seats and all 435 House of Representative seats are up for grabs today. It’s looking like the Republicans could take control of the US Senate. The Democrats have a chance to take control of the House, and are focussing particularly on trying to win seats in California and New York state. There are also 11 state governorships and 5800 state legislator seats being contested.

fivethirtyeight.com has a complete guide to poll closing times, vote counting and races to watch in every state.

* Paul Walter is a Liberal Democrat activist and member of the Liberal Democrat Voice team. He blogs at Liberal Burblings.