Tag Archives: israel

Tom Arms

Observations of an Expat: Death of the Two-State Solution

By Tom Arms | Sat 8th February 2025 - 9:51 am

The two-state solution is dead. Or, at the very least, it has been reduced to the one and a half state solution. But then the other Palestinian half is likely to be killed off in the next few weeks.

The concept of a Jewish and Palestinian state living side by side cannot work without American backing. No other state has the international clout or sufficient leverage over Israel.

The Palestinian state was envisaged as existing in two distinct halves—the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. Donald Trump’s proposal that the US take control of Gaza, move out all the Palestinians, bulldoze it and turn Gaza into the “Riviera of the Middle East” means that the US has in one press conference eliminated the Gazan half from the political equation.

The other half is expected to soon follow suit. Trump has promised a statement on the West Bank “in a matter of weeks.” In his first term he declared Israeli settlement was no longer—in his opinion—a breach of international law. He also recognised Jerusalem—which is part of the West Bank—as the capital of Israel. In his second term he quickly lifted Biden-imposed sanctions on violent Israeli West Bank settlers.

It is extremely likely that he will announce approval of Benjamin Netanyahu’s long-held wish to annex the West Bank. That means an estimated 5 million Palestinians would be forced out of their homes. Where do they go?

“They should go to new homes,” said President Trump. “Someplace where they live and not die.” Specifically, the president has suggested Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon and possibly Saudi Arabia. They have all responded with an emphatic: “No way!!!”

Continue reading »
Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged and | 17 Comments
Tom Arms

Observations of an Expat: Gaza Ceasefire

By Tom Arms | Sat 18th January 2025 - 9:34 am

They were celebrating in Gaza City when the ceasefire was announced on Wednesday. Men, women and children ran into the streets to shout, cry and pray.

Then the Israeli bombs started to fall again. 110 more Palestinians died. Shortly afterwards it was announced that a last-minute hiccup had delayed Israeli cabinet approval. Will the ceasefire hold?

The deal is the result of constant 24/7 negotiations brokered by Egypt, Qatar and the US. The bones of the agreement were announced by Biden in May. Benjamin Netanyahu, however, rejected it at the time.

Donald Trump and Joe Biden can both take a share of the credit. Biden for negotiating the deal and winning UN backing. Trump for saying he would back what Biden parleyed. It was a rare moment of cross-party foreign policy-making and undercut Netanyahu’s hopes of a better agreement from Donald Trump.

The ceasefire itself is in three clear phases. Phase one is due to start on Sunday and last six weeks. It involves the partial withdrawal of Israeli forces; an increased flow of humanitarian aid and the release of some Palestinian prisoners.

Phase two—also six weeks long—calls for the complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza. The return of all remaining live hostages and the release of more Palestinian prisoners and “the return to a sustainable calm.”

Phase three is the start of the reconstruction of Gaza. The return of the bodies of an estimated 32 dead hostages and the release of more Palestinian prisoners. The US, Egypt and Qatar are all committed to ensuring that both sides comply and that the ceasefire goes well beyond the first few months and becomes the basis of further agreements.

But there are a host of hurdles at which ceasefire could fall. Possibly the biggest is opposition from the Religious Zionist Party led by Finance Minister Ben Smotrich. He has said he would vote against the ceasefire unless there is a clear commitment to resume fighting once all the hostages are released. He said: “Our continued presence in the government depends on the absolute certainty of resuming the war with full force.”

Continue reading »
Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged | 12 Comments
Miranda Pinch

Jewish opinions on Palestine vary considerably – As the daughter of a holocaust survivor my own view explained

By Miranda Pinch | Fri 3rd January 2025 - 5:03 pm

My mother was a secular Jewish refugee who fled Czechoslovakia in 1938. My grandfather, Ernst Sommer was on the Nazi death list and escaped separately. He wrote (in 1943) one of the earliest German-language novels on the Holocaust: ‘Revolt of the Saints: A tribute to the heroes of the Warsaw Ghetto.’ Published in Mexico City (1944) while in exile.

My mother was always very against what was being done to the Palestinians in her name as Jew. Because of this I became an active campaigner for Palestinian human rights and very concerned about the creeping rise of weaponised antisemitism. It is a threat to open dialogue and a tool to silence voices that speak out against injustice and persecution. This should be worrying for anyone who holds liberal democratic values. This trend has increased year on year, but it has reached truly unfathomable levels since Israel’s War on Gaza began.

I am a member of the Holocaust Survivors’ Descendants Network, and when I march in London, I often do so alongside them. There is a huge UK Jewish contingent on all the marches, reminding me of the strength of solidarity amongst so many in the Jewish community in this country.

Despite portrayal in mainstream media, it is not an inevitable consequence of Jewishness that you support Zionism or the actions of the Israeli government. Nor is it inevitable that all who consider themselves Zionists would support collective punishment, crimes against humanity and what Amnesty and others are convincingly describing as genocide committed by the Israeli state in Gaza as well as ethnic cleansing in the West Bank.  (David McDowall presented the Amnesty analysis demonstrating genocide in his article in Lib Dem Voice on 5 December 2024.)

There is a glaring irony that those who shout the loudest about conflating pro-Palestinian sentiment with antisemitism are those who are being the most antisemitic. They assume that Judaism is synonymous with Zionism or, as both Netanyahu and the Board of Deputies’ leadership in the UK like to infer, that being Jewish is synonymous with support for Israel regardless of its actions. That is a perversion of Judaism and encourages antisemitism.

As a daughter of a holocaust survivor, I grew up knowing the suffering and generational trauma that comes from genocide, but my mother always refused to be a victim. Why should an innocent population in Palestine be punished for the behaviour of Europeans? The convictions that came from such past trauma of ‘never again’ and the establishment of international law and justice seem to have been sidelined by a warped idea of superiority and entitlement and the idea that the rights of one population trump those of another.

So, like very many British Jews, I am not a pawn for pro-Israeli propaganda to use in their grotesque political game. There are plenty of Jewish voices in the UK that show the strength of pro-Palestinian Jewish sentiment including the Holocaust Survivor’s Descendants Network, Jews for Justice for Palestinians,  to which I belong, Yachad,  Na’amod,  and others. These include a range of Jewish voices, both religious and secular and all oppose the Israeli occupation and ethnic cleansing and advocate for the freedom of the Palestinian people.

Continue reading »
Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged | 11 Comments
Tom Arms

Observations of an Expat: Middle East Whack-a-Mole

By Tom Arms | Sat 7th December 2024 - 9:35 am

The Middle East is very much like the fairground game whack-a-mole. You think you have solved your problems by knocking a mole on the head and another one of the pesky beasts pops up on the other side of the board.

Just as Israel and Washington thought they had Hezbollah and Iran on the back foot, an Islamic fundamentalist group has popped up to threaten Syria’s Assad regime.  And, of course, the Gazan mole still has its head above the parapets – just.

The temptation is to raise a cheer for Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its leader Abu Muhammad Al-Jolani. They are, after all, now the main threat to the regime of Basahar-al Assad, one of the regime’s most brutal anti-Western dictators. They also pose the biggest danger to Russian and Iranian influence in the region.

But HTS are an internationally proscribed terrorist organisation with a reputation for brutal repression. They also want to create an Islamic state within Syria. The last thing the Middle East needs is another religiously-based government which derives its legitimacy from its relationship with an infallible Higher Being.

So, who is HTS and its leader? Why have they suddenly leapt into the world’s headlines? And, finally, what are their chances of toppling the Assad regime?

Al-Jolani himself is a shadowy figure. Even his birth date is unknown, although he is believed to be in his mid-forties and hails from Damascus where his parents still live. When the Syrian Civil War started with the 2011 Arab Spring, Al Jolani was associated with the Jihadist group Al Nusra which was the main Islamic opposition group opposing Assad in Aleppo and Syria’s northern Idlib region.

Continue reading »
Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged | 5 Comments
David McDowall

Amnesty International’s report on Israel genocide

By David McDowall | Thu 5th December 2024 - 7:32 pm

Amnesty International’s 293 page report, ‘You feel like you are subhuman’ (5 December) stands as the first devastating indictment of Israel’s genocide of the people of Gaza since last January, when the International Court of Justice deemed genocide ‘plausible’ and applied legally binding orders concerning Israel’s conduct (which were ignored). Page by agonising page, Amnesty chronicles the disproportionate actions and language of Israeli leaders, soldiers and others that, in its view, clearly demonstrate intent to destroy Gaza and its people.

Two years ago, Amnesty published its report, ‘Israel’s Apartheid Against Palestinians’, another forensically detailed analysis of Israel as occupying power. Between the two reports stand first, the ICJ’s preliminary hearing of South Africa’s charge of genocide against Israel (referred to above), and secondly, its Advisory Opinion on ‘The Legal Consequences arising from the Policies and Practices of Israel in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem’, of 19 July 2024.

It is in the light of Amnesty’s report that the words parroted by senior politicians of the three principal political parties that ‘Israel has a right to defend itself’ sound so hollow, particularly since it is difficult to think of a single occasion when any senior British politician (pace Corbyn) over the past 57 years of illegal and repressive occupation, has stated that the Palestinians have a right to defend themselves. We should admit our shame and that our conceit that ‘Brits love the underdog’ is a sham. For 57 years the UK (like almost everyone else) has ducked its legal obligation under Common Article 1 of the 1949 Geneva Conventions ‘to respect and ensure respect for the present Convention in all circumstances’, meaning when you see another Party to the Convention violating it, you have a clear obligation to do what you can to bring it back into compliance.

Continue reading »
Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged and | 12 Comments
Tom Arms

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 1st December 2024 - 9:21 am

Israel

Israel has won the war with Hezbollah. That is if the ceasefire recently announced takes effect as planned.

If Hezbollah has lost then so have backers Iran and the Palestinians in Gaza and on the West Bank. Hezbollah was the keystone in Iran’s “Axis of Resistance.” It effectively turned Lebanon into a buffer state between Israel and Iran.

As for the Palestinians, the late Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah ordered the rocket attacks on northern Israel with the promise that they would continue until there was a ceasefire in Gaza.

The ceasefire agreement makes no mention of Gaza. Israeli forces continue to fight there. Benjamin Netanyahu has severed the link between Hezbollah and Gaza and between Iran and Gaza. This has in turn given him a free hand in dealing with the Palestinians both in Gaza and the West Bank.

He is further aided by the re-election of Donald Trump. The president-elect has been vague about his Middle East policy. He is known for his unpredictability. But the appointment of Mike Huckabee as ambassador to Israel provides some hints. Huckabee is opposed to the two-state solution and has hinted that he supports Israeli annexation of the West Bank and northern Gaza.

Surprisingly, opinion polls indicate that only about half of the Israeli population support the ceasefire agreement. Why is unclear.

The agreement says that Israeli and Hezbollah forces must withdraw from territory between the Israeli-Lebanese border and the Litani River which is roughly 30 miles north of Israel. Hezbollah would completely disarm. The buffer zone would be occupied by 10,000 UN troops and 10,000 troops from the official Lebanese army with financial backing from the US and France.

Israel cannot launch offensive operations against Lebanon, but it has the full backing of the US to launch “defensive” operations. “If Hezbollah violates the agreement and tries to arm itself,” said Netanyahu, “we will attack. If it tries to rebuild the terrorist infrastructure near the border we will attack. If it tries to launch a rocket. If it digs a tunnel. If it brings in a truck carrying a rocket, we will attack.”

Israel has clearly abandoned the search for a political resolution and put all of its hopes and dreams into the military option.

United States

The threatened 25 percent tariffs on Mexico and Canada will hit them hard. Eighty percent of Canada’s exports are to the US. The same figure applies to Mexico.

But they will also damage the American economy. America needs Mexico’s $19 billion of machinery, electrical equipment and fruit and vegetables. About half of US fruit imports come from Mexico. And if you fancy avocados, 90 percent of America’s avocados are grown in Mexico.

Transferring that production to the U.S. would be difficult, especially since about half of the 2 million agricultural workers in the U.S. are undocumented Mexicans. At the moment they are protected by a visa system that gives legal status to agricultural workers. But Trump has vowed to end that which would seriously impact the $1.5 trillion American fruit and vegetable industry.

Undocumented workers also make up 60 percent of the work force of the construction companies in the southwest. One construction official complained that deporting them “would devastate our industry, we wouldn’t finish our highways, we wouldn’t finish our schools. New housing would simply disappear.”

Canada exports a wide range of products to the U.S., including up to 30 percent of the oil consumed by America. Refineries in the mid-west and Pacific Northwest are especially reliant on oil pipelines from Canada. GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis, Patrick De Haan, reckons that a 25% tax on Canadian crude oil would increase gas prices in the Midwest and the Rockies by 25 cents to 75 cents a gallon,

Continue reading »
Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged and | 11 Comments
Tom Arms

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 24th November 2024 - 10:41 am

COP 29

COP 29 is in trouble. It was inevitable. This year’s climate change conference is in oil-producing Baku, Azerbaijan, and host president Ilham Aliyev is using the conference to push oil and gas as “a gift from God.”

This is encouraging the Saudis who are working hard to strike the phrase “transition away from fossil fuels” from previously agreed communiques.

Then there is the question of the transfer of money from the developed to the developing world; partly to compensate them from the effects of climate change problems created by the industrial north and partly to help them transition away from fossil fuels to clean, green energy.

Previous communiques talked about $100 billion. Now it is generally agreed that $1.3 trillion is a more realistic figure. A big fine, global figure which is facing the problem of devilish detail. What for instance, constitutes a developing country. Officially Saudi Arabia, China and India are all developing countries. The Saudis are as rich as Croesus, China has the second largest economy in the world and India the fourth and will soon be third.

And how will this transfer of $1.3 trillion be organised? Will it be hand-outs which might well end up in some dictator’s Swiss bank account? Will private investments which can create a return for the Western investor be counted in the $1.3 trillion, or research and development grants? All this is being negotiated as I type and will probably be unresolved long after the conference ends.

In fact, the protracted negotiations are proving to be an insurmountable hurdle for the understaffed Azerbaijani diplomatic service. They have been forced to turn to the British and Brazilians to help sort out the muddle and—hopefully—produce a communique.

Any real progress is likely to have to wait until the next COP summit. But that is unlikely to achieve anything because the world’s second largest polluter and the world’s largest per capita—the United States—will not be attending. Donald Trump has promised to withdraw from the COP summits and “drill, baby, drill.”

Israel

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his sacked defense minister Yoav Gallant this week had arrest warrants issued for them by the International Criminal Court at The Hague. Hamas leader Mohammed Deif has also been charged but he is unlikely to ever appear in court simply because he has been killed by the Israeli Defense Forces.

There are 123 countries who are signatories to the ICC. This means, according to international law by which they have pledged to abide, if Netanyahu, Gallant or the ghost of Mohammed Deif, step on their territory, they must arrest them.

Britain and the Netherlands have confirmed that Netanyahu faces such a fate if he dares to visit them.

America has condemned the arrest warrants as “outrageous” and said that the Israelis are safe with them. Well, they have a legal out. The Clinton Administration signed up to the ICC and its obligations but George W. Bush “unsigned”, so the US is under no legal obligation to work with the court. Other countries which are not signatories are Saudi Arabia, Iran, Russia and China.

Continue reading »
Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged , , , and | 25 Comments
Anne-Marie Simpson

Using the influence of the Liberal Network to push for peace: reviewing ties with Israel’s Yesh Atid

By Anne-Marie Simpson | Fri 15th November 2024 - 9:40 am

In September, Liberal Democrat Conference passed an emergency policy motion on Gaza and the wider Middle East conflict. We were proud to reaffirm our support for UNRWA, for international courts, and for our policies to suspend arms exports to Israel, cease trade with illegal settlements, and immediately recognise the state of Palestine.

There is, however, an unfortunate final clause in the emergency motion passed: “Conference further calls on Liberal Democrats to engage with all their ALDE and Liberal International sister parties to secure a two-state solution based on 1967 lines in the region, including Israel’s Yesh Atid party.”

Unfortunate, because Yesh Atid stands against almost everything the motion calls for.

Many Liberal Democrats will look to Gaza and think: ‘what difference can we make?’ But even in the absence of meaningful action by the government, and even from our position in opposition, there is something that we can do as an influential member of the family of liberal parties.

We can show that ‘business as usual’ cannot continue for and with those parties which completely disregard everything liberals believe in. We can and should begin moves to end Israel’s Yesh Atid party’s observer status within Liberal International.

In October 2024, the Israeli Knesset passed two Bills outlawing the operations in-Israel of the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), responsible for the co-ordination of aid programmes for Palestinian refugees.

Continue reading »
Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged | 16 Comments
Andy Daer

There are ways to achieve peace in the Middle East

By Andy Daer | Thu 7th November 2024 - 9:33 am

Many Israelis think they face ‘annihilation’ by Iran and their proxies, and that this means their wars in Gaza and Lebanon fall outside the boundaries set by the international rules of war.  The fear of annihilation didn’t come out of nowhere, but although there has been some fiery rhetoric about Israel’s right to exist over the years, Iran doesn’t seriously believe it could destroy Israel, especially given that it’s backed by the US.  The ‘existential’ distress Israelis feel is more likely an expression of the deep insecurity affecting many Jews around the world, and it originates not from their treatment by Arabs or Iranians, but from centuries of racial abuse and persecution in Europe.  Understanding and accepting this as the underlying cause of the unrestrained assaults on Gaza and Lebanon ought to be fundamental to the peace process.

As things stand, Israel’s Prime Minister won’t listen to calls for restraint, even from the UN or international courts, not because he is mad, or is fighting to stave off corruption charges, or is bent on destroying hopes for a two-state solution, but because he knows that many Israelis think they are in fight for their survival, which on their view means all the normal rules go out of the window.

The fear of annihilation touches a deep place in the human psyche.  When psychoanalysts discuss the war in Gaza they speak of paranoia brought on by Israelis never being allowed to forget the Holocaust, and how that can make them seek refuge in feelings of omnipotence.  The feeling of omnipotence is a delusional state of mind, but it must have been a very seductive delusion to fall back on after the  horrific Hamas attack on October 7 last year.

Most outside observers judge the Israeli response to the threat from Hamas as having been wildly disproportionate, and think it has strayed far beyond its initial purpose – retaliation (or perhaps revenge) for the killing of so many Israeli civilians.  To most of us it’s clear that Netanyahu could end the war in Gaza and Lebanon and get the remaining hostages back simply by giving up on the idea of an enlarged ‘Greater Israel’ and conceding that the Palestinians have a right to their homeland in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, and Gaza.  Hamas, the Houthis, and Hezbollah have all said as much – that they would stop attacking Israel if it agreed to end the Occupation.  Jordan’s envoy to the UN has gone further and said the Arab states of the Middle East would guarantee Israel’s security if it ended the bombardment of Gaza and backed the two-state solution.

Continue reading »
Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged , and | 5 Comments
Tom Arms

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 20th October 2024 - 10:27 am

Middle East

Every geopolitical shift offers opportunities and dangers. The escalating war in the Middle East is no exception.

At the moment the world is focused on the dangers. But the opportunities are there as the major players realise the need to step back from the brink and consider measures that were hitherto unthinkable in order to avoid a catastrophe nobody wants.

The biggest opportunity could involve Iran’s nuclear weapons programme.

There is a strong body of opinion in the US and Israel that the best way to deal with Iran’s nuclear weapons programme is to destroy it. The problem with that is three-fold:
1- You cannot destroy the know-how
2- the necessary installations are deep underground, heavily protected and would probably require direct American involvement and
3- Destruction of Iran’s nuclear installations would only increase hatred of Israel and the US.

Many Israelis and Americans also fear that a religiously-zealous Iran would use nuclear weapons against Israel—and possibly the US—as soon as they acquire them.

Rubbish. The Iranians may be religious extremists, but they are not stupid. They know that they would be wiped out in any nuclear exchange.

To them a nuclear weapon is a deterrent against an Israeli—or possibly joint US-Israeli—nuclear or overwhelming conventional attack.

However, nuclear weapons do give Iran greater flexibility in any conventional scenario as any potential enemy would think twice about attacking a nuclear-armed Iran. This would mean a serious movement in the Middle East goalposts.

So how can the US (with Israel looming large in the background) and the Mullahs avoid escalation and a nuclear Iran. From the Iranian side, Washington would expect Tehran to immediately stop refining and testing missiles and enriching U-235 and converting it to fissile material. From the US-Israeli side, Iran would expect guarantees that Iran would not be attacked by either Israel or the US.

Iran is reckoned by the CIA to be seven months away from having THE bomb. An agreement could freeze development at the current level—or slightly more advanced– so that if it was attacked, Iran could quickly move to a nuclear capable position.

The above scenario is not impossible. According to intelligence sources, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini has not given the final go-ahead for nuclear weapons. He has also told newly-elected President Masoud Pazeshkian that he can resume nuclear negotiations with the five members of the Security Council and Germany.

There are other important tangential issues including: Iranian support for Russia’s war in Ukraine; Iranian support for Hezbollah and the Houthis; Israeli attacks on Hezbollah; Saudi and UAE attacks on the Houthis; the Syrian civil war; Western sanctions against Iran and Iran and China’s growing economic co-dependency.

All of —or some of—these issues could be dealt with as part of nuclear talks. Or nuclear talks could open the door to separate discussions on these problems.

European Union

British Foreign Secretary David Lammy has called it the “EU Reset.” It started this week with Lammy attending a regular meeting of EU foreign ministers in Luxembourg. The Foreign Office has promised more of the same.

The talks were on big global security issues—China, Russia, Ukraine, the Middle East, US elections—all those things on which it is very easy for the UK and EU to agree. Not on the agenda was the EU-UK 2020 Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) which continues to bedevil or threaten to bedevil EU-UK relations.

Continue reading »
Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged , and | 9 Comments
Mark Valladares

15 October 2024 – yesterday’s press releases

By Mark Valladares | Wed 16th October 2024 - 10:15 pm
  • Wage Growth falls: Govt must back small businesses as the backbone of our economy
  • NI Rise: Chancellor needs to think again
  • Poll: 1 in 4 reveal they are unable to work because they can’t get a NHS appointment
  • Lib Dems urge further UK government sanctions to proscribe far-right Israeli ministers Ben-Gvir and Smotrich
  • Highland MP to lead debate on Community Benefits from Renewables
  • Cole-Hamilton: A&E waits once again worse than last year

Wage Growth falls: Govt must back small businesses as the backbone of our economy

Responding to the latest wage growth figures falling by 4.9%, Liberal Democrat Treasury Spokesperson Daisy Cooper MP said:

The cost of living crisis is still affecting many people across the country.

The cost of the weekly shop remains sky high compared to a few years ago, and years of mismanagement under the Conservative Government had squeezed people’s pay.

The Government must use the Autumn Budget to tackle the cost-of-living crisis facing pensioners and families, and also back small businesses as the backbone of our economy.

NI Rise: Chancellor needs to think again

Responding to Keir Starmer refusing to rule out a National Insurance increase for employers in the Budget on BBC Breakfast, Liberal Democrat Deputy Leader and Treasury Spokesperson Daisy Cooper MP said:

The Chancellor needs to think again if the government is considering hiking taxes on small businesses, who have already suffered from eye-watering tax rises under the last Conservative government.

The burden of this budget should fall on the likes of big banks, social media giants and oil and gas firms, instead of our local community businesses. The Chancellor should be protecting these smaller businesses, who are the backbone of our economy and the heartbeat of our communities.

Now is not the time to raise national insurance rates on our high streets, local businesses and dynamic entrepreneurs.

The Conservative government has left our economy on life support. Now is the time to boost growth by backing small businesses and repairing our crumbling public services.

Poll: 1 in 4 reveal they are unable to work because they can’t get a NHS appointment

  • The Liberal Democrats will be using their first full opposition day in 15 years to focus on the NHS and care crisis.
  • Almost half (45%) of Brits have tried to get a NHS appointment in the last year and have been unable to.
  • 1 in 4 (27%) reveal they are unable to work because they can’t get a NHS appointment
  • Almost three in five (58%) adults who were unable to get a NHS appointment have self-diagnosed from searching their symptoms online.

The Liberal Democrats will use their opposition day in Parliament tomorrow to raise the NHS crisis, as a shocking new poll commissioned by the party reveals reveals a quarter (27%) of working adults in the UK say they have been unable to work in the last 12 months because they were waiting for a GP (19%) or NHS dentist appointment (12%).

Continue reading »
Posted in News, Press releases and Scotland | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , and | 2 Comments
The Voice

Ed Davey on 7th October one year on: “We must stand with the Jewish community against hate and violence”

By The Voice | Mon 7th October 2024 - 8:45 am

Commenting on the one year anniversary of the 7th October terrorist attacks by Hamas in Israel, Liberal Democrat Leader Ed Davey said:

As we remember the terror and pain of October 7th, we must all come together and stand in solidarity against hate and violence. One year ago, we awoke to those horrifying scenes in Israel of Hamas’s brutal terrorist atrocities.

When I visited Israel and Palestine a few months ago, I saw for myself the destruction and devastation at the Kfar Aza kibbutz and the festival site in Re’im. I met Itzik, a father waiting for news of his

…

Continue reading »
Posted in Europe / International, News and Press releases | Also tagged and | 15 Comments
Tom Arms

Observations of an Expat: Middle East Consequences

By Tom Arms | Sat 5th October 2024 - 10:23 am

The Gaza War has escalated to become the Middle East war and Israel is winning – for now.

But the problem is that the Israeli government’s strategy is based entirely on total military victory over Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and their backer Iran.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – pushed by his ultra-orthodox allies – has left no room for political compromise or any consideration of the wider consequences.

At the UN General Assembly this week, the Israeli Prime Minister declared: “There is no place” In the Middle East that Israel’s “long arm cannot reach.” He then left the chamber to make a phone call ordering the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. He and a large slice of Hezbollah’s senior command structure were dead within the hour.

Shortly afterwards, Israel launched a ground invasion of southern Lebanon.

Iran could be restrained no longer. They were being humiliated. Tehran launched the largest ever missile attack on Tel Aviv. Thanks to Israel’s iron dome and American and British jets, only a handful of the missiles broke through. Netanyahu responded by pronouncing: “Iran made a big mistake…and it will pay for it.”

How will Israel make Iran pay for their attack? What will be America’s response? How about Russia, China and the Arab states? What are the likely consequences of what appears to be the start of a Middle East war?

First of all, we should examine the role of Hezbollah in the context of the wider relationships of the Middle East. Hezbollah is, first and foremost a creature of Iran. Its primary purpose is to act as a deterrent defensive shield against a threatened Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Its estimated 45,000-strong military force and 100,000-plus missiles were thought to be enough to keep Israel off balance and occupied but not nearly enough to invade the Jewish state and defeat it in a proper war.

But even as a defensive shield, Hezbollah has been weakening in recent years. Lebanon’s multiplying political and economic problems have been largely blamed at the party’s insistence of working as a state within a state while at the same time attempting to control the legitimate Lebanese political apparatus. Hezbollah is unpopular with the Lebanese people.

Then there are the missile attacks it has launched on northern Israel since 8 October. It may have started with 100,000 rockets and drones, but military analysts believe that at least half of Hezbollah’s arsenal has been either fired or destroyed by Israeli counterattacks.

Finally, there is Israel’s infiltration of Hezbollah’s communications system and the assassination of key figures. The destruction of pagers and walkie talkies indicates that Mossad has the ability to tell where almost every Hezbollah fighter is at any given time and the IDF (Israeli Defense Force) has the ability to destroy them with sophisticated guided missiles.

Continue reading »
Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged and | 14 Comments
The Voice

Lib Dem MPs comment on Middle East escalation

By The Voice | Wed 2nd October 2024 - 9:22 am

If any of us aren’t pretty scared and worried by what is going on in the Middle East, we probably should be.

Lib Dem MPs have been reacting to events as Israel steps up its actions against Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran attacks Israel.

And all of this, at the heart, are people facing a humanitarian disaster, living in the most appalling conditions without food or shelter.

On Twitter this morning, Layla Moran said:

All my life my grandparents warned that if we didn’t achieve peace in Palestine it would risk wider war. With Iran’s actions overnight it seems we are inching closer to chaos rather than closure. I am so scared for my family and the future of the region. I pray I’m wrong to be.

On Iran’s attacks, Ed Davey said:

Liberal Democrats totally condemn Iran’s attacks on Israel. My thoughts are with all innocent civilians – in Israel and across the region – who are sheltering tonight.

The UK Government must do all it can to bring the region back from the brink of all out war, working closely with our allies. Too many innocent civilians have already been killed.

We must keep our focus on securing a lasting peace and a two state solution. Only diplomacy can deliver the security across the region that people so desperately need with the hostages home to their families and an end to the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

On Monday, Calum Miller, our new Foreign Affairs spokesperson wrote to Foreign Secretary David Lammy about the deepening crisis:

He said:

We must pursue the conditions for peace despite the bleak outlook. I’ll continue to urge the Government to adopt the proposals made by Liberal Democrats at our conference earlier this month.

Continue reading »
Posted in News | Also tagged , , and | Leave a comment
Mo Waqas

Israel’s dilemma: War and ideology

By Mo Waqas | Wed 2nd October 2024 - 7:30 am

While attending a business conference at the Belfry in Sutton Coldfield, I received the news that Israel had demolished a six-tower complex.Among these towers, the infamous Hassan Nasrallah, leader of Hezbollah, was reportedly taking refuge in a bunker situated 80 feet underground. The Israeli military employed F-15 jets equipped with bunker-buster bombs to execute this strike, effectively targeting the underground stronghold. My immediate reaction was one of concern, fearing for the region’s stability and the safety of its people. In that moment, I couldn’t help but sense that this conflict might become Israel’s “Dirty War” (La Sale Guerre). Unlike the approach of Charles de Gaulle, Netanyahu seemed to have found his “Ho Chi Minh” in Nasrallah; however, the question remains – how many “Ho Chi Minhs” does Hezbollah harbor?

This episode has shed light on the reality that the “Axis of Resistance” comprises ragtag militias united by a single factor: ideology. Israel’s current strategy relies heavily on “shock and awe,” yet history suggests that such tactics rarely yield long-term success, even in Gaza, which remains tightly controlled by Israel. Despite being surrounded, Hamas continues to operate. It’s important to clarify that I’m not glorifying these groups but rather examining the unfolding situation to understand Israel’s potential trajectory. From my perspective, the outlook is worrying.

Israel stands as the sole democracy in the region, sharing values and interests with the United Kingdom, making it a close ally. Yet, since this conflict began, Israel appears to be playing into Tehran’s hands. The fact is, neither Iran nor its allies in the “Axis of Resistance” possess the military strength to take on Israel head-to-head. Still, to borrow a quote from Ho Chi Minh: “The tiger may not stand still and allow the elephant to crush him. But the tiger will leap upon the elephant, and then jump back into the jungle; and as the elephant pursues him, the tiger will attack again and again until the elephant bleeds to death.” This analogy accurately depicts Iran’s strategy: bleeding Israel economically and militarily through indirect means.

Continue reading »
Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged and | 6 Comments
Tom Arms

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 8th September 2024 - 10:28 am

Gaza

In a month it will be first anniversary of the start of the Gaza War. There is no end in sight.

The two sides – Israel and Hamas—have two diametrically opposed positions. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says he will accept nothing less than the total destruction of Hamas. He might reluctantly accept a temporary ceasefire if the Israeli Defence Forces or Mossad manage to assassinate Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. That would enable him to retrieve at least some of the hostages. But once those hostages are returned expect the attacks to resume.

Hamas leader Sinwar is holding out for nothing less than a permanent ceasefire. This means that at least a Hamas remnant would remain intact for Palestinians to build on. Netanyahu would regard such a result as failure.

The American, Qatari and Egyptian negotiators meanwhile are trying to bridge these apparently irreconcilable positions with a diplomatic agreement couched in terms of “constructive ambiguity” which allows both sides to claim concessions, if not total victory.

The cost of failure is high. At stake is not just the plight of millions of Gazans and the future security of the state of Israel. Hanging over the talks is the threat of a wider regional war. A slight misstep by Israel, Iran, Hezbollah or the Houthis can easily set off a major conflagration.

Ironically, escalation can work to the advantage of both Netanyahu and Sinwar. From the point of view of the Hamas leader, a full-throated Middle East conflict would draw Israeli forces away from Gaza to attack Hezbollah in Syria and Lebanon. There is also the possibility that an escalation could pull the Arabs off the fence and onto the Palestinian side.

Looking at the advantages of escalation through Israeli eyes, Netanyahu has been pressing the US for some time to join him in a direct attack on Iran which he sees as the fount of all of Israel’s problems. The Israeli prime minister was explicit in stating that goal in his recent address to a joint session of congress.

In the meantime, Netanyahu is no nearer to reaching his goal of the total destruction of Hamas and Yahya Sinwar is no nearer to admitting total defeat.

Immigration

There is a new forest of placards at Trump rallies: “Mass Deportation Now!” The same cry is being heard in Spain at Vox rallies. In France when the National Rally gathers. It is barked by some members of Britain’s Reform Party. In Germany The far-right Alternative fur Deutschland (AfD) has this week managed to gain control of the East German Lander of Thuringia.

And it is not just the far-right that is pushing the anti-immigrant line. Joe Biden’s tough new executive orders have dramatically reduced the number of illegal immigrants crossing America’ southern border. Stefan Lofven The leader of the centre-left, previously pro-immigrant Swedish Social Democrats recently reversed party policy to declare: “The Swedish people can feel safe in the knowledge that Social Democrats will stand up for a strict immigration policy.”

The Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, Hungary, Slovakia, Austria, Serbia, the Czech Republic… Virtually all of the Western world has turned anti-immigrant. Opposing immigration wins votes. Backing deportation is a bit iffy, but the debate is moving in that direction. The problem is that mass deportation is wholly impractical.

Continue reading »
Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged , , , and | 6 Comments
John Kelly

Lib Dems should take stronger stand after reports of human rights abuses of Palestinian detainees

By John Kelly | Wed 21st August 2024 - 7:53 am

The scale of the atrocities in Gaza, which we are seeing daily on our TV screens, has reached levels of horror which have left most of us stunned – both by Israel’s brutality, and by the audacity with which it is defying world opinion.   The total Gaza death toll is over 40,000– with an estimated missing further 10,000 buried or blown to pieces.  Many thousands more are expected to die from malnutrition, disease or neglect in the coming months.  Sadly, each new outrage is no longer shocking, given the number of schools, hospitals, universities, churches, mosques, and water works which Israel has targeted over the last ten months.

Israeli actions have long since gone beyond any acceptable definition of ‘self-defence’ following the 7 October attacks. The ICC chief prosecutor believes there are reasonable grounds to believe Benjamin Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant bear criminal responsibility for Israel’s use of starvation of civilians as a weapon of war and has made comparable claims about Hamas leaders.  The failure of the international community to react and impose consequences for this illegal conduct has led to Israel enjoying a climate of impunity far beyond what it has achieved in the past.

Months ago, the International Court of Justice said there was plausible evidence  that Israel is conducting a genocide in Gaza. The ICJ made various demands on Israel to change its behaviour, but these were largely ignored. A state with any respect for international law ought to impose sanctions on sales of arms to Israel, and the UK has a legal obligation to do this, not merely to impose a ban on future licences.  It will take time for the ICJ to determine if Israel’s bombardment of civilians does in fact constitute  genocide, but the suffering of the Palestinian people is a present day reality for millions in Gaza and the West Bank, and our duty to them cannot be parked until an indeterminate point in the distant future.

The ICJ advisory opinion on the illegality of the Occupation is also devastating; any governments facilitating the continuation of the Occupation, whether by supplying arms or by continuing to permit normal relations with those who benefit from it, are “complicit”, and therefore in breach of international law.  Lib Dems must call not just for a two-state solution but for an immediate end to that occupation, and reparations to be paid to Palestinians, as required in the ICJ opinion.

We must ensure that our Government takes firm action to avoid complicity and to show where we stand. As yet, the Labour government has delayed decisions on the arms trade, and has even failed to publish the Foreign Office legal advice which it claimed parliament had a right to see when it was in opposition. The resignation of British diplomat Mark Smith, who was involved in monitoring arms export licences, brings the new Government’s slowness to act into sharp relief. He told Radio 4’s Today programme “that the state of Israel is perpetrating war crimes in plain sight.” A fuller account was printed in Monday’s Guardian.

A very disturbing trend is highlighted in detail in the latest B’Tselem report (B’Tselem is the leading Israeli human rights organisation), which produced compelling evidence that Israel’s detention centres have become torture camps.  This was reinforced in a lengthy Channel 4 News Report on Monday this week.  It is gruesome and sickening TV to watch – some of the most unpleasant I have ever seen, so be warned.

Continue reading »
Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged , and | 28 Comments
Tom Arms

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 18th August 2024 - 9:49 am

United States

Kamala Harris, asserts Donald Trump, “is a communist.” The assertion is, of course, another blatant falsehood.

And the fact that the former president is resorting to the well-tried, but somewhat discredited, tactic of red-baiting demonstrates how desperate the Trump campaign has become since Harris took over from President Joe Biden.

Kamala Harris does have certain political beliefs and policies that run counter to those of Donald Trump, conservative voters and the Republican Party. The one that rankles most with conservatives is her support for America’s limited social safety net. Vice President Harris supports the universal retirement benefits (ie social security), Medicare (health benefits for the elderly) and Medicaid (health care for low-income Americans). She also favours abortion rights which puts her on a collision course with the evangelical right.

In European terms, such views would put Kamala Harris on the right wing of social democrats. The problem is that a large number of Americans – especially Republicans – drop the word “democrats” when talking about their allies and refer to Europeans simply as “socialists.” Furthermore, many of them wrongly equate democratic socialism with a slightly lesser form of communism.

Communism, however, is different. It promotes a classless society where all property is communally owned and the state controls the means of production. Because this system runs counter to human nature, a repressive government led by an unelected elite is require to enforce it. That is not being proposed by Kamala Harris. But hey ho, Donald Trump has never let the truth stand in the way of a good dog whistle conspiracy.

Gaza

The Gaza ceasefire talks appear to be going nowhere. According to the New York Times, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has tabled a new set of conditions which will almost certainly be rejected in Hamas who are refusing to attend talks in Qatar.

In addition, the assassination of negotiator Ismail Haniyeh has elevated hardliner Yahya Sinwar to the job. He is hiding in Hamas’s tunnel labyrinth and has said he would fight to the last Gazan.

Hanging over the ceasefire talks is the threat of Iran to retaliate for the killing of Ismail Haniyeh on Iranian soil. What that retaliation will involve is a worrying unknown, and the Iranians are keen to keep that way.

To confront the fear the Americans have ordered a nuclear-powered submarine equipped with cruise missiles to the Middle East. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin also despatched to the region a second aircraft carrier group and amphibious craft capable of landing several thousand marines. The Israeli government has told its citizens to stockpile food and water in safe rooms.

The Iranians have been briefing journalists that the one thing that would stop a retaliation would be a Gaza ceasefire. But that prospect is slipping further and further away.

The New York Times reported that this week the Netanyahu government has tabled several more conditions to the proposal they issued in May.  These include Israeli control of the Egyptian-Gaza border and a series of obstacles to the return of refugees to their homes in north Gaza. It has been reported that the new proposals are opposed by both the Israeli negotiators in Qatar and senior military people.

Continue reading »
Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged , , , , and | 10 Comments
Leon Duveen

The real conflict in the land between the Sea and the River

By Leon Duveen | Tue 6th August 2024 - 7:44 am

The real conflict in the land between the Sea and the River is not between Palestinians & Israelis, it is not a religious war (there are Jews, Muslims, Christians & believers of other religions supporting both sides).  It is a conflict between, on one side, those who want that land exclusively for their side, realising that it will mean an ongoing war for the foreseeable future, a war that neither Palestine nor Israel can win but both Palestinians & Israelis will lose, and, on the other side, those who are willing to trade exclusivity for peace, who are willing to accept that both Palestinians & Israelis have the same right to claim the land as their people’s homeland and to be a free people in it.

The exclusivists on both sides are very good at painting the 100+ years of conflict in black and white, us or them, win or lose terms.  Indeed, the exclusivists on both sides are not above working with each other to stop those who accept the need to compromise being accepted as the real patriots.  Even the recent assassination of Ismail Haniyeh can be seen like this, the removal of a relatively moderate Hamas leader in such a way as to strengthen the hawks on both sides.

The reality is the opposite, it is those who believe Palestinians & Israelis  both have rights to that small sliver of land, who believe both people have ancient ties to it and that they both need to learn to live alongside each other who are the real patriots, the people who really love both the land the people who live there & want to see an end to the continual violence.

Continue reading »
Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged and | 6 Comments
Ruvi Ziegler

The ICJ Advisory Opinion on the illegality of Israel’s continued presence in the Occupied Palestinian Territories

By Ruvi Ziegler | Sat 20th July 2024 - 9:31 am

On 30 December 2022, the UN General Assembly passed resolution A/RES/77/247 in which it asked the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to opine on two questions:

First, what are the legal consequences arising from the violation of the Palestinian people’s right to self-determination by Israel’s prolonged occupation, settlement and annexation of the Palestinian territory occupied since 1967 (OPT),  including measures aimed at altering the demographic composition, character and status of the Holy City of Jerusalem, and from its adoption of related discriminatory legislation and measures?

Second, how do these Israeli policies and practices affect the legal status of the occupation, and what are the legal consequences that arise for all States and the UN from that status?<

On 19 July 2024, 20 years and 10 days since the ICJ rendered its Wall advisory opinion, the world court delivered a bombshell. All ICJ judges agreed that the above questions fall with the court’s jurisdiction and all but one of the 15 judges (Vice-President Sebitunde) decided that the court should comply with the request for an advisory opinion (given it has discretion whether to do so). The same resounding majority found that ‘Israel is under an obligation to cease immediately all new settlement activities, and to evacuate all settlers from the OPT’ and that it ‘has the obligation to make reparation for the damage caused to all the natural or legal persons concerned in the OPT’.

A smaller yet significant majority, 11-4 (Vice-President Sebitunde joined by judges Tomka, Abraham, and Aurescu) found that ‘Israel’s continued presence in the Occupied Palestinian Territory is unlawful’ and that it ‘is under an obligation to bring to an end its unlawful presence in the OPT as rapidly as possible’. The court reached this conclusion in light of the violation of two key principles of international law: the prohibition of the acquisition of territory by force and the right of peoples (in this case, the Palestinian people) to self-determination. The aims and realities of the settlement project in cementing Israel’s presence in the OPT rendering the occupation’s temporariness a façade, and in instituting a discriminatory regime whereby two populations, Israelis and Palestinians, living in the same occupied territory, are subject to different legal regimes, played a crucial role in the court’s determination that the entire Israeli presence in the OPT has become illegal.

When it comes to the responsibilities of other states, by a 12-3 majority (Vice-President Sebitunde joined by judges Abraham and Aurescu) the ICJ found that

‘all States are under an obligation not to recognize as legal the situation arising from the unlawful presence of the State of Israel in the OPT and not to render aid or assistance in maintaining the situation created by the continued presence of the State of Israel in the OPT’.

They also found that:

‘international organisations, including the United Nations, are under an obligation not to recognise as legal the situation arising from the unlawful presence of the State of Israel in the OPT.’

Finally, they found that:

‘the United Nations, and especially the General Assembly, which requested this opinion, and the Security Council, should consider the precise modalities and further action required to bring to an end as rapidly as possible the unlawful presence of the State of Israel in the OPT.’

This advisory opinion is ground-breaking: by ripping the mask of temporality off the face of Israel’s prolonged occupation, by identifying the settlement project as its core ongoing harm, and by highlighting the critical role the international community (can and must) play in bringing the unlawful situation to a rapid end.

Continue reading »
Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged | 10 Comments
Tom Arms

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 16th June 2024 - 9:28 am

Gaza

 Benjamin Netanyahu and the Hamas leadership share a common interest: It is to neither’s advantage at this stage to end the Gaza War. But neither is in either party’s interests to be seen as the bad guy.

In the case of the Israeli prime minister it is the fact that once the war is over he will face an overpowering clamour for a general election. It is an election which he will almost certainly lose as the Israeli electorate will hold him to account for the events that led up to the October 7th Hamas attack.

And then, once he is out of office, Netanyahu is likely to exchange the prime minister’s official residence for a prison cell via a trial on charges of fraud, bribery and breach of trust. Fleeing the country is not an option because by then the International Criminal Court will have issued an arrest warrant for war crimes – unless he flees to America.

With Hamas the story is different. There are two wars being fought in the eastern Mediterranean. One is on the ground and in the air over a strip of land 26 miles long and 2.5 miles wide. The other is a war in the court of international public opinion. Hamas is losing the first and winning the second.

The longer the military war continues. The greater the disproportionate losses in human terms between Palestinians and Israelis and the greater the victory for Hamas. Already it has secured diplomatic recognition of a Palestinian state from six EU countries—Norway, Spain, Slovenia, Cyprus, Sweden and Ireland.

Hamas has repeatedly proven that it puts political objectives before Palestinian lives. A string of historical precedents would have told them that the October 7th attack and the taking of hostages would have resulted in a highly disproportionate number of dead and injured Palestinians. It is also clear that Hamas has used hospitals, schools and Palestinian civilians, as shields.

So, where does that leave the prospects for peace and the diplomatic brokering of the US, Egypt and Qatar? At the moment US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is focused on the lack of Hamas’s enthusiasm for the latest peace proposal. Hamas say they have responded with “positivity” but Blinken says that the Hamas’s “positivity” includes “unworkable” changes.

Part of the latest problem is ownership of the plan currently on the table. It was announced by President Biden. But in his announcement he said it was an Israeli plan. However, as Hamas’ has been keen to point out, no Israeli official has publicly endorsed the plan.

In fact, official Israeli pronouncements continue to focus on continuing the war until Hamas’s “governing and military capabilities have been destroyed and the hostages returned.” There is also the political problem that Netanyahu’s far-right coalition partners will withdraw from the government if the plan outlined by Biden goes ahead. This would result in an election which Netanyahu would lose.

Israeli problems and positions in turn appear to be in direct conflict with a Hamas demand that Israel commit in writing to ending the fighting before it agrees to any plan from anyone. Until this deadlock is resolved and the Americans come up with a plan that allows both sides to achieve the aims they want without fighting, then the war continues.

Ukraine

Shortly after the Russians invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the West froze $325 billion in Russian assets.

Almost immediately the call went out to hand the money over to Ukraine to finance its war against Russia. But there was a problem with this tactic which can easily be summed up with one word – hypocrisy.

Putin was being condemned for contravening international law with his naked war of aggression. But confiscating Russian assets and handing them over to Ukraine would also break international law. And respect for international law is at the root of what Ukraine and the West is fighting for. Putin wants to create a world where might is right. America and its allies want to retain a world based on respect for international law.

Continue reading »
Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged , , , , and | 10 Comments
Tom Arms

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 9th June 2024 - 9:57 am

Gaza War

Sometimes the most shocking statements are the most obvious. Especially when they are spoken by those encumbered with having to be the most diplomatic.

This week President Joe Biden publicly stated what everyone knows but he has been reluctant to confirm: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is dragging out the Gaza War as a way to stay in office.

He might have also added that the war is keeping Netanyahu out of prison as he has been indicted on charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust. As long as he is prime minister he cannot be tried.

The latest Israeli opinion polls indicate that if an election were held in Israel today Netanyahu’s Likud-led coalition would win 46 seats compared to the opposition parties’ 68 seats. But, at the same time, polls show strong support for the war and its goal of eliminating Hamas. If Netanyahu achieves the total destruction of the enemy then the voters might just forgive him for creating the conditions that allowed the 7 October attack to happen.

Biden’s comments came in an interview with Time magazine and only a few days before he announced another plan to end the Gaza War. This one is in three phases.

Phase one would last six weeks and include a total ceasefire and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. Some hostages would be released. Hundreds of Palestinians would be released from Israeli prisons and there would be an immediate and massive influx of humanitarian aid into Gaza.

Under phase two the remaining hostages, including soldiers and the remains of any dead hostages would be released and the IDF would complete its withdrawal from Gaza. Phase three would involve reconstruction which would last three to five years. The two-state solution is not mentioned in this latest plan.

Despite the fact that President Biden has made it clear that there would be no future role for Hamas, the terrorist organisation has said that they view the plan “positively.”  Biden claimed that his phased proposal had been endorsed by the Israeli government, but then a spokesperson said: “Israel has not changed its conditions to reach a permanent ceasefire. That will only happen after our objectives are met including destroying Hamas’s military and governing capabilities.” He added that that is estimated to take seven months.

Meanwhile, a new front is opening on the border with Lebanon. Actually, it is an old front, but the fighting between Iran-backed Hezbollah and Israel is worsening. Hezbollah is now using explosive drones which are more difficult for Israel’s iron dome to stop and can reach further south. Israel, for its part, is levelling the southern Lebanese city of Sidon. Within the Israeli cabinet there is talk of creating an Israeli-occupied “security zone” in southern Lebanon, similar to the one Israel maintained until 2000.

The US has responded to the Lebanon threat with another three-part plan. First part is a ceasefire to allow residents on both sides of the border to return to their homes. Phase two is US economic assistance for financially-strapped Lebanon and the final phase calls for a newly demarcated border to improve security.

The problem is that the negotiations are with the Lebanese government while the power is with Iran-backed Hezbollah. They are unlikely to accept any ceasefire until a truce is agreed and implemented in Gaza. And, as President Biden acknowledged, that truce is against the political interests of Bibi Netanyahu.

European Parliament

Europe’s far-right is expected to sweep the board in this weekend’s elections to the European Parliament. This could mean problems ahead as a centre-left council and commission clash with a right-wing parliament.

This didn’t use to be a problem. It used to be that the European Parliament was a talk shop with limited oversight powers. The real power lay with the member states through the European Council which in turn effectively appointed the President of the European Commission and the 27 commissioners.

But over the years, increasing pressure has meant that more and more power is vested in the directly elected parliament rather than the indirectly elected council. Parliament has progressed from an advisory body to a co-decision maker.

Continue reading »
Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged , , , and | 50 Comments
Tom Arms

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 12th May 2024 - 9:26 am

Russia

It was a week of military parades, trumpets, nuclear sabre-rattling and an inauguration in Russia this week.

It started with another threat from President Vladimir Putin when he announced on Monday the start of military exercises involving non-strategic nuclear weapons. This was in response to America releasing its $61 billion aid package to Ukraine, and the repetition of French President Emmanuel Macron’s threat to consider sending French troops to Ukraine.

Then there was Putin’s inauguration as he started his fifth term in office with a long walk past applauding crowds lining the red-carpeted corridors of the Kremlin. Putin’s first inauguration in 2000 was hailed as Russia’s transition to democracy. This one followed an election in which he “won” 87.5 percent of the vote while all his political opponents were either dead, in exile or in prison.

On Thursday it was the Victory Day Parade to mark the end of what the Russians call “The Great Patriotic War.” May Day was the big parade in Soviet days. May 9, was important, but it was not even a public holiday until 1965. Putin, has revived the celebration and elevated it to a collective remembrance resembling a religion.

One of the highlights of the parade is the march of the “Immortal Regiment” in which relatives troop past the reviewing stand holding aloft pictures of family members who died in the war. The scene is reminiscent of icons being carried in Russian Orthodox Church services. The 60th and 70th anniversaries of the war’s end (in 2005 and 2015) were the biggest public holidays in Russia since the fall of the Soviet Union.

Meanwhile, in Ukraine, the inauguration and Victory Day were marked by increased Russian bombardments and missile attacks as Russian troops tried to gain the military upper hand before the latest batch of Western military aid arrived.

Palestine

The two main Palestinian factions – Hamas and Fatah – hate each other almost as much as they do the Netanyahu government.

They have barely spoken since 2007 when Hamas won elections in Gaza and booted Fatah and the Palestinian Authority out of the seaside strip.

That is why it is significant that representatives from the two factions met recently in Moscow and Beijing. The Chinese meeting was especially interesting because Beijing is keen to project itself as Middle East peace broker as opposed to its characterization of the US as Middle East war monger.

The Chinese have already successfully brokered the re-establishment of diplomatic relations between regional rivalries Iran and Saudi Arabia. Shortly after that success, foreign minister Wang Yi wrote to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu offering to mediate in the decades-old Arab-Israel conflict. Netanyahu politely refused.

Brokering a rapprochement between Fatah and Hamas could be a diplomatic back door for Beijing to constructively inject itself into the Middle East conflict. It is generally agreed that the two-state solution is the logical solution to the conflict.

Continue reading »
Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged , , , and | 3 Comments
Tom Arms

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 5th May 2024 - 9:34 am

Germany

Germany’s far-right Alternative for Deutschland (AfD) party has problem in Thuringia. The East German Lander is an AfD stronghold, but their main candidate, MEP Maximilian Krah, has become a non-person.

The reason for his disappearance from the campaign for the European Parliament is the arrest of his aide Jian Guo on charges of spying for China. Krah himself, may not be above suspicion. He is known as one of the Asian giant’s biggest backers in the European Parliament.

The case of Jian Guo is only one of several scandals affecting AfD candidates for June’s European parliament elections. There have also been allegations that another AfD politician, Petr Byrstron, was paid $21,300 by a Russian disinformation network.

The ensuing political disgrace appears to be having effect on the electorate. In December, opinion polls showed the AfD with 23 percent of the national German vote. Another poll at the end of April showed them with the support of only 16 percent of the electorate.

In the meantime, Herr Krah’s name remains on the ballot in Thuringia. It has to. Once the parties submit their list of candidates then their names cannot be removed. Krah’s name is right at the top. But he is at the bottom of the list for speaking opportunities.

Gaza

Compromise appears to be in the air in the Hamas-Israel talks in Egypt. Israel is talking to negotiators about a six-week truce – possibly longer. Hamas is saying that it is looking at the latest proposals in a “positive light”.

So, what are the proposals? Specifics are a diplomatic secret. But what can be gleaned so far indicates that international pressure on Israel and Israeli pressure on Hamas is wringing concessions out of both sides.

A long truce will almost certainly mean the end of Benjamin Netanyahu’s pledge of total victory and the destruction of Hamas. But in return he wants to release of about 100 hostages which means that Hamas will have to relinquish their only bargaining chip.

The proposal currently on the table would call for a phased deal which American, Qatari and Egyptian mediators hope will lead to a permanent ceasefire.

The first phase would be the release of all female hostages in exchange for an undetermined number of Palestinians held in Israeli prisons. Once the initial exchange is completed Israeli troops would withdraw from the coastal road in Gaza. This would facilitate the movement of humanitarian aid and allow displaced Palestinians to return to their homes in northern Gaza. Once northern Gaza is re-opened the remaining hostages would be released along with the remains of hostages who have died in captivity. Israel would also release another batch of Palestinian prisoners.

Continue reading »
Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged , , , , and | 3 Comments
Tom Arms

Observations of an Expat: Campus Powder Keg

By Tom Arms | Sat 4th May 2024 - 10:22 am

America has for years been a polarised powder keg waiting for the spark to ignite the fuse. It has come in the form of student protests against American support for Israel.

Protesters, counter-protesters and rent-a-mob have violently coalesced around the conflicting fates of Palestinians and the State of Israel.

As of Friday demonstrations have broken out on 140 college campuses in 45 states. More than 2,000 students have been arrested by police storming barricaded encampments and university buildings with riot gear.

President Joe Biden is trying to thread his way through the oft conflicting principles of freedom of speech and the rule of law. “There’s the right to protest but not the right to cause chaos,” he said. At the same time he is standing firm on his support for Israel while privately bemoaning the fact that he is not being given sufficient credit for pressuring the government of Benjamin Netanyahu.

The political result could be a November victory for Donald Trump as young people continue their Gaza protest by boycotting the polls and the older generation vote for the strong man politics of Trump.

But what do the protesters want? It varies. Some what the total destruction of Israel. Others are focused on a ceasefire and the two-state solution. Still others have been drawn to the barricades by the issue of free speech. Counter-protesters fear that Israel and Jews in general are facing the problems of the 1930s. Rent-a-mob just sees an advantage in chaos.

Continue reading »
Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged and | 13 Comments
Tom Arms

Observations of an Expat: Poor Bibi

By Tom Arms | Sat 20th April 2024 - 10:13 am

Spare a thought for Bibi Netanyahu. He is caught between a rock and several hard places. He is fighting external wars against Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran; an internal war against his cabinet colleagues and a diplomatic one against the Biden Administration and most of the rest of the world, if not all of it.

The results of this complex picture could be Armageddon, stalemate or any one of the many in between scenarios.

While pondering the fate of the Israeli prime minister you may also want to consider all the other players who are dragging the world to the brink of a Middle Eastern abyss: President Joe Biden, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khameini and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. They are locked in a dangerous escalating tit for tat dance of death.

Within the Israeli cabinet there is a four-way tug-of-war between Prime Minister Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and War Cabinet Minister and Opposition Leader Benny Gantz. They all appear to hate and distrust each other.

According to sources, Gallant and Gantz have hardly spoken to each other since Benny Gantz beat out Yoav Gallant for the top military job ten years ago. Itamar Ben-Gvir is an ultra-Orthodox Jew who said Netanyahu should “go berserk” after Iran’s missile attack on Israel. He described Israel’s retaliatory attack on Iran’s third most populous city, Isfahan, as “lame.”

Gallant is not as extreme as Ben-Gvir, but not far off. Benny Gantz is the nearest thing to a dove that there is in the Israeli war cabinet. But even he is calling for the “total destruction” of Hamas. If elections were held today, Gantz would be prime minister.

All four men have conflicting views on a post-war Gaza. Netanyahu wants the army to take over. Gallant wants an ill-defined arrangement with the West Bank’s Palestinian Authority. Ben-Gvir is pushing for replacing the 2.2 million Gazan Palestinians with Israeli settlers and Benny Gantz is keeping his cards close to his chest, but hints at a politically slimmed down two-state solution.

Netanyahu, according to sources, deals with his rivals by ignoring them. All the major decisions since October 7 have been made by the prime minister without – or with the minimum – consultation.

Continue reading »
Posted in News | Also tagged , , and | 9 Comments
Tom Arms

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 14th April 2024 - 9:36 am

Middle East

A quick round-up on Gaza, Israel, Iran, Yemen, Lebanon, America and everywhere else that is affected by the ongoing crisis in the Middle East.

President Biden’s “outrage” following the killings of World Central Kitchen aid workers resulted in an apology and two new aid routes: The Erez Crossing and the port of Ashdod in southern Israel. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that as a result 400 aid trucks went through to Gaza immediately after the presidential fury. UN officials said the figure was actually 223.

Disenchanted State Department officials – of which there are a growing number – say that …

Continue reading »
Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged , , , and | 8 Comments
Tom Arms

Observations of an Expat: Tyranny of the Majority

By Tom Arms | Sat 13th April 2024 - 9:31 am

“Democracy,” Winston Churchill famously said, “is the worst form of government – except for all those other forms that have been tried.”

Then there is democracy unchained, or without the restraints of the rule of law and free speech.  Also known as “the tyranny of the majority” or the “will of the people” or, perhaps, “democracy flawed.”

These are elected governments with political leaders who have harnessed to their own pursuit of power a perceived threat to the majority, or a growing, vociferous and politically motivated minority.

There are far too many examples to choose from but let’s focus on Hungary, Russia, Israel, India and the US for starters.  In each of these countries, the leaders (or wannabe leader) have won the support of the majority of the population either through lies or by allying themselves with a social movement which promotes one section of society at the expense of another.

Technically speaking, Israel is a democracy with carefully monitored and oft-held elections. Its American supporters are keen to point out that it is the only democracy in the Middle East and this makes the Israelis their only rock-solid ally in the region.

Twenty percent of Israel’s voters are Arabs. As the occupying power, Israel is also responsible for two million Palestinians in Gaza and another two million on the West Bank – none of whom have a vote.  Their rights and concerns are totally ignored by Benjamin Netanyahu because his political base is conservative Orthodox Jews. The Israeli Supreme Court has attempted to protect Arab rights. As a result, Netanyahu is beavering away at dismantling the court and its powers.

Vladimir Putin was recently re-elected President of Russia with 87.5 percent of the vote. Such a large figure is of course suspect, but most observers accept that Putin would have won regardless. He has successfully portrayed himself as the only possible leader of a nation under attack from wicked, grasping Western enemies. His answer is that the best defense is a good offense which means the pursuit of Russian imperial ambitions.

Viktor Orban has cast himself in the role of anti-immigrant, anti-Islamic saviour of ethnic Hungarians and European Judeo-Christian values. “We must state,” said Hungary’s right-wing prime minister, “that Hungarians do not want to be diverse and do not want to be mixed; we do not want our own colour, traditions and national culture to be mixed with that of others.”

Continue reading »
Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged , , and | 20 Comments
Mo Waqas

Sometimes sorry just isn’t enough

By Mo Waqas | Sun 7th April 2024 - 1:08 pm

Wednesday was a day filled with sorrow and reflection as I learned about a tragic event unfolding in Gaza. A missile strike by the Israeli Defence Force claimed the lives of seven individuals associated with the World Central KitchenAid organization. Among them were three British citizens: John Chapman, James Anderson, and James Kirby. My heart goes out to the families of those who lost their lives in this catastrophe, particularly those working tirelessly to alleviate the severe food shortages plaguing the people of Gaza.

The mission of World Central Kitchen, to feed the most vulnerable under dire conditions, where some have had to resort to animal feed for sustenance, is nothing short of heroic. This calamity, however, casts a shadow on their noble work, revealing the precarious nature of providing aid in conflict zones.

The admission by IDF Chief Herzi Halevi, attributing the strike to misidentification, does little to assuage the gravity of the situation. The meticulous targeting of vehicles marked with the World Central Kitchen emblem seems to point to a breakdown not just in the fog of war but in accountability and oversight by one of the world’s most technologically advanced militaries.

In a separate, equally disturbing event, a suspected Israeli strike demolished the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria. This act, resulting in the death of seven members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), escalates tensions further and breaches the sanctity of diplomatic missions, a cornerstone of international relations.

These events have reignited the discourse on the Israel-Palestine conflict, underscoring the urgent need for peace and the problematic nature of ongoing arms sales to Israel. Calls for a ceasefire from former Supreme Court Justices and reconsideration of support for UNWRA highlight the potential complicity in serious violations of international law.

Continue reading »
Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged , and | 13 Comments
Mark Valladares

3 April 2024 – today’s press releases

By Mark Valladares | Wed 3rd April 2024 - 10:30 pm
  • Aid worker deaths: Davey calls on government to suspend arms sales to Israel
  • Royal Mail proposal to cut second class deliveries: Another slap in the face
  • London Lib Dems response to Khan economic announcement
  • Worst hit rivers for sewage dumps revealed as Lib Dems call for new Blue Flag status
  • Rennie responds to CalMac boss stepping down

Aid worker deaths: Davey calls on government to suspend arms sales to Israel

The Liberal Democrats have called on the government to suspend arms sales to Israel, following the deaths of seven aid workers including three British nationals in an Israeli air strike in Gaza.

Liberal Democrat Leader Ed Davey said:

The deaths of these British aid workers in Gaza is an absolute disgrace. These brave people were trying to help starving families in Gaza.

Clearly, the thought that British-made arms could have been used in strikes such as these is completely unacceptable.

The government must take swift action to suspend arms exports to Israel. We must redouble our efforts to secure an immediate bilateral ceasefire.

Royal Mail proposal to cut second class deliveries: Another slap in the face

Responding to the news that Royal Mail wants to reduce second class deliveries to three days a week, Liberal Democrat Business Spokesperson Sarah Olney MP said:

These plans are a slap in the face for families being asked to pay more for less.

The cost of first and second class stamps has gone up sharply in recent years. It risks creating a cost of postage crisis, as people feel forced to pay for first class stamps because second class delivery days are being slashed.

People shouldn’t have to pay the price for Royal Mail’s failure, after executives missed their delivery targets and paid themselves eye-watering bonuses.

London Lib Dems response to Khan economic announcement

Responding to Sadiq Khan’s joint economic announcement with Rachel Reeves today (Weds), Rob Blackie, the Liberal Democrat candidate for Mayor of London, said:

Labour’s plan ignores London’s biggest economic problem – Brexit. Labour are too scared to say that Brexit has damaged London’s economy, making us poorer and costing us jobs.

For instance, technology companies now have to spend time and money complying with two data laws, one each from the EU and the UK. And too many European citizens in London are made to feel unwelcome.

As Liberal Democrat Mayor I will campaign to fix the damage done by Brexit, and bring in a London passport to protect London’s EU citizen rights.

Continue reading »
Posted in London, News, Press releases and Scotland | Also tagged , , , , , , , , and | 28 Comments
Advert

Recent Comments

  • Mike Peters
    As an observer of US politics, I find it deeply concerning that the US judicial system seems build around the practice of judicial shopping in which - in this c...
  • Roland
    The problem with carbon capture is going to doing it at scale. Currently the UK consumes circa 1.3m barrels of oil a day. The main supertanker (VLC) carries 2m...
  • Roland
    >” Most farming household income is well below the national average, contrary to the image portrayed by wealthy hobbyists like Jeremy Clarkson.” One of ...
  • Roland
    @ Zachary Adam Barker & @ Nonconformistradical Given the over capacity of airports in the country, I see little reason to expand either Heathrow or Gatwi...
  • Roger Billins
    Disappointing results in Three Rivers and Harborough. I think the general message is a worldwide one of anti incumbency...