There is no safe way to bomb an Iranian nuclear reactor.
This is especially true of Iran’s facilities as the key ones are buried deep underground and heavily protected.
The more impregnable the target. The bigger the bomb required to destroy it. The greater the risk of a nuclear disaster.
This is why Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), quickly called a press conference when he heard of Israel’s attacks on Iran’s nuclear power plants.
Nuclear sites, he said, should never be attacked. He added: “Any military action that jeopardises the safety and security of nuclear facilities risks grave consequences for the people of Iran, the region and beyond.”
The 1986 Chernobyl Disaster resulted in radioactive dust carried to a dozen European countries. Forests died in Scandinavia. Fish stocks were polluted and restrictions on sheep grazing were in place in Wales and the English Lake District for decades. A total of 2,600 square kilometres around Chernobyl has been closed.
Iran has five nuclear facilities – Natanza, Fordow, Isfahan, Arabk and Bushehr. The ones suspected of producing nuclear warheads are Natanza and Fordow. Natanza’s reactors are buried 40-50 metres underground. Fordow’s are also buried deep inside a mountain.
If one of them is severely damaged than the Shamal wind would blow radioactive particles towards Iraq, Syria, the Persian Gulf, Lebanon and even Israel.
Then there are the diplomatic repercussions. The extent of America’s involvement is uncertain. Thursday night, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, tried to distance the US from the attacks. But on Friday morning President Trump announced on Truth Social that he had advance knowledge.
There is no love lost between the Arabs and Iran, but encouraging Israel to launch an attack which could result in nuclear fallout over their territory is likely to strain the warm Arab-American relations that Donald Trump has fostered.
Even if the United States did not encourage Israel’s attack on Iran, it failed to prevent it. America’s greatest value to the Arab world is as a brake on Israeli aggression. Trump does not appear to be applying the American foot to the brake pedal.
Finally, there is the effectiveness of the Israeli strikes. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu thinks that the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) can totally obliterate their objectives so that they never rise again. That is his strategy towards Palestinians in Gaza and it is his stated aim towards Iran’s nuclear industry.
“The strikes,” he said, “will continue for as many days as it takes.”
The IDF will never destroy the Palestinian resistance. For every Hamas fighter that is killed ten more will rise to seek vengeance. As for Iran, the IDF cannot, however, destroy knowledge. The secrets of nuclear fission and fusion are now deeply embedded in the Iranian scientific community. They have also established scientific collaboration with North Korea.
The Iranians will almost certainly aim to rebuild their nuclear facilities. The second time around they will probably withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and ban all inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency. A nuclear bomb would be developed in much stricter secrecy in close collaboration with North Korea.
Israel’s bombing of Iran has delayed Iran’s acquisition of a nuclear weapon. Perhaps for years. But it has not stopped it. It has merely taken its nuclear programme out of the diplomatic sphere and into the world of the clandestine —making the Mullahs even more dangerous than before the Israeli bombing.
* Tom Arms is foreign editor of Liberal Democrat Voice and author of “The Encyclopaedia of the Cold War” and “America Made in Britain".
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14 Comments
As someone with a science education, I have some technical concerns about this article.
I am not aware of Natanza and Fordow having nuclear reactors. My understanding is that these are uranium enrichment facilities, using gas centrifuges. The process is that uranium and fluorine are reacted to make uranium hexaflouride is a gas. This is then centrifuged to separate the molecules containing the lighter uranium isotope, U-235, from the heavier isotope U-238. Highly enriched uranium (meaning a high percentage of U-235) is needed to make a bomb.
If such facilities are bombed, I would expect very little leakage of radioactive materials, and would expect that to be relatively localised. Only the uranium hexfluoride gas is capable of travelling, since it is a gas. The final point is that even U-235, which has a half life of 700 million years, is not very radioactive, and U-238 even less radioactive.
There are many serious concerns arising from Israel’s attack on Iran (and arising from Iran’s enrichment programme) but I don’t see the merit of additional scaremongering.
I cannot claim to be a scientist. My degrees are in politics, history and economics. But I do believe that Rafael Grossi, director of the International Atomic Energy Agency, is well-informed and he was quick to talk about the dangers of bombing nuclear facilities.
On March 20, Israel indicated its willingness to launch its own attack on Tehran’s nuclear facilities, which are deliberately dispersed across the country and hidden where possible in bunkers and mountains.
But it remains the case that the success of such an operation would need America to take part, not least because it alone possesses some of the weaponry – such as the most advanced bunker-busting bombs – needed to penetrate Iranian defences.
On Friday the Guardian editorial correctly stated: ‘The recklessness of Benjamin Netanyahu’s government and the incoherence of Donald Trump’s deepen the crisis in the Middle East’
So why has Israel acted now? Netanyahu knows that crippling Iran will not be a short war. He wants ALL Israelis to support him. On Thursday Haaretz gave us the answer: ‘An opposition-led bill to dissolve the Knesset, sparked by intense coalition tensions over a draft bill for ultra-Orthodox military conscription, was defeated overnight. The proposal failed with 61 lawmakers voting against it and 53 in favor, granting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition at least another week’
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2025-06-12/ty-article/.premium/knesset-dissolution-bill-defeated-giving-netanyahu-reprieve-amid-haredi-draft-crisis/00000197-61a9-dee7-a1df-71efe3370001
Netanyahu is not stupid. By blatantly ignoring instructions from Washington and forcing Trump to claim he was OK with the strike on Iran (Trump’s fragile self-image wouldn’t have let him admit that Netanyahu was disobeying his instructions), he has let Trump know who holds the power in their relationship. Netanyahu becoming more powerful is troubling, but for me the most disturbing thing today was hearing that Netanyahu claims to be acting solely against the repressive regime, not the Iranians, and that he’s trying to help the Iranians overthrow their tyrannical rulers.
I find that disturbing because if that’s true, Netanyahu has a valid point, which I don’t normally find myself saying. However, trying to foment a revolution by bombing centrifuges is unlikely to be successful, and taking the heat out of relations with Iran would be a better way to ensure we could find ways talk them about improving Iranian society.
I have not seen any comments from the Parliamentary party about their opinion about what is going on here.
The government of Israel has become a regional superpower and believes it can bomb it’s enemies into submission; Hamas are destroyed, Assad is gone, Iran cannot fight back. In the region this power that Israel has is greatly resented. And anything the Israeli government does, it is assumed the US approves. And if the US approves, so do all NATO countries, unless any of them speak out to say otherwise.
There are moral questions here. The UN has been ignored in this war, although these days the UN are routinely ignored by Trump and Putin. People in Iran are being collectively punished, in many cases killed.
And then there are security questions. Iran can’t fight back against Israel/US by conventional means, so terrorism against Israel/US/NATO countries will no doubt be coming along soon.
Andy you say: ‘Netanyahu becoming more powerful is troubling, but for me the most disturbing thing today was hearing that Netanyahu claims to be acting solely against the repressive regime, not the Iranians, and that he’s trying to help the Iranians overthrow their tyrannical rulers.’
Overnight in the BBC Amir Azimi Editor, BBC Persian wrote: ‘Beyond Israel’s stated goal of destroying what it calls an existential threat from Iran’s nuclear capabilities with its attacks on Friday; Benjamin Netanyahu has a wider aim – regime change in Tehran.’
Amir Azimi’s article replays the Western press’ playing ‘Iran is the bad guy’ line. In fact, when the previous President died in an air crash in the mountains near Tabriz, we were told the candidate for the Iranian President would be an ‘Ayatollah’s nominee’. A reformist was actually the nominee and won the election. He announced he wanted to reset relations with the West, which is the last thing Netanyahu would want.
@John Waller, we don’t actually know what that the last thing Netanyahu wants is. If he brings about regime change, that would be good for the Iranian people, and for peace in the Middle East. As I’ve said, I would prefer to see the western powers seek ways to bring about Iranian regime change without using military force, but as things stand there are no European or American politicians capable of rising above the puerile assessments in Israel or the US.
Currently, Iran hates America because America hates Iran, and America hates Iran because Iran hates America.
In one of the Mullah Nasruddin fables, Nasruddin sees some strangers arriving and runs to hide. One of them follows him and eventually finds him. “Why are you here, Nasruddin,” he asks. “Well, I’m here because you are here,” he replies, “and you are here because I am here.” A little bit of ancient Sufi wisdom wouldn’t go amiss in Washington and Tehran.
@Andy Daer that Netanyahu is “trying to help the Iranians overthrow their tyrannical rulers” is worrying because who would replace the current rulers and how? History shows that revolution or regime change by purely military means does not usually bring about better government and in this case does anyone know which group are ready and have both the means and adequate support among key people (as opposed to popular feeling) to take over?
@Andy Iran hates America, and Britain, because it ousted Mohammad Mossadegh, Prime Minister of Iran, in 1953. Iran is a proud nation. Read ‘Hitchhiking to India in 1962’.
@Geoffrey Payne Great points. Silence from us BUT Starmer is sending warplanes to the Middle East TO HELP PROTECT ISRAEL. The UK is now in the war.
John Waller, you’re right, of course, about the history, but the politicians of 1953 are long dead, and there is no logic in Iranians blaming us for what they did. More relevant, in my view, is that autocratic leaders like having a foreign enemy in order to foster obedience to their rule, and that leaders in the US, Israel and Iran therefore try to keep those old feelings of hatred and resentment simmering.
But there are signs that ordinary Iranians are sufficiently fed up with the mullahs to try to overthrow them, and that however much we might dislike Netanyahu, he might achieve something good (for once).
I don’t think we as a country should be getting involved in the middle east and playing poodle to Mr Trump. We should be an honest broker to try and reach a peace settlement with both sides and try and de-escalate the crisis along with others. The problems of the middle east are very complex and both Israel and its neighbours have not behaved impeccably. Israel decided to occupy the West Bank a long time ago and Hamas committed terrorist atrocities.
Peace in the Middle East is most likely to be achieved when there is a more equal balance of military hardware. While Israel maintains such a superior capability there is little incentive for it to engage in peace talks. Detente worked during the cold war so why not now?