Donald Trump

It has been a great week for Donald Trump. Perhaps his best ever. His “Big Beautiful Bill” has passed Congress. There is nil blowback from Trump’s decision to bomb Iran and the US Supreme Court has handed him another useful decision.

But within his success could be the seeds of failure. Starting with the “Big Beautiful Bill” which, among others, cuts MedicAid to an estimated 10-15 million Americans. These are the least financially advantaged (aka poor) members of society who cannot private health insurance. Many of them voted for Trump.

These voters will not be entirely cut off from hospitals. All hospitals are required to treat emergency cases such as a broken arm. But if you have cancer or a chronic condition which requires regular hospital attention and you don’t have private health insurance, then you will be in trouble without MedicAid.

But the MedicAid cuts will affect not only America’s indigent. Someone will have to cover the increased use of accident and emergency clinics. This will have to come out of either local taxes or increased health insurance premiums for the middle classes. So everyone loses and it won’t take long for them to figure out who is responsible.

As for Iran, there has been virtually nil reaction from Tehran. They bombed a US base in Qatar but warned the Americans of the incoming missiles. Then they accepted a ceasefire. There were no more attacks on Israel. No terrorist attacks on Europe or the US. No closure of the Straits of Hormuz.

Trump’s strategy of attack hard and fast, exit quickly and propose a ceasefire appears to have worked—for now. It is still early days. We don’t know how much enriched uranium the Iranians rescued, or what they will do with it and they are certainly aren’t about to tell anyone. So Iran could still blow up into a “forever war” of the type that Trump has pledged to end.

Finally, there is the Supreme Court which ruled that the lower American courts cannot block Trump’s executive orders as they have been doing. On the surface, this is a major triumph for the president. But one needs to read the written opinion of Trump-appointed Justice Amy Comey Barrett to realise otherwise.

Justice Barrett supported the majority which ruled against the lower courts. Then she laid out a blueprint of how Trump’s opponents could block him without using the courts. Furthermore, the Supreme Court made a deal with the White House than it would accept without question any future rulings of the court.

Ukraine

Good news and bad news for Ukraine. First the bad news. The US is cutting back its supply of weaponry. The reason? Because America has supplied so many howitzer shells and patriot missiles that its own arsenal is dangerously low. It is true. The US does need to replenish stocks.

The Europeans will be able to pick up some of the slack, especially Germany. But not all.

Now the good news. The Russian summer offensive appears to be faltering. Not only that, but 50,000 Russian troops are trapped in Sumy Oblast by Ukrainian forces.

The Russian summer offensive started at the beginning of May and concentrated on north and northeast regions. It was initially successful, capturing some 173 square miles of Ukrainian territory.

But then the Ukrainian counter offensive came. The country’s top general reported this week: “Based on the results of May June, we can say that this year’s wave of the enemy’s summer offensive has failed.” He added that the Ukrainian forces had not only stopped the Russians but were now attacking and had isolated an estimated 50,000 Russian troops.

In other Ukrainian news, Russian and Ukrainian diplomats meeting in Istanbul negotiated another POW swap which took place this week.  Most of the Ukrainians that were released had been in Russian captivity since 2022. All of them were severely wounded or seriously ill.

Finally, according to the South Koreans, the North Koreans will be sending another tranche of troops to help the Russians.

Israel

It is clear that Israeli Prime Benjamin Netanyahu is hoping for an Iran bounce. After all, he has been calling for an attack on Tehran’s nuclear facilities since 1993 and the American attack is clearly popular with Israeli voters.

Now might be the time to call an early general election. That Netanyahu is considering such a move is clear from his statement this week. “I have many missions to complete,” he told a press conference.

The problem is that voters may not want him to complete them. Success in Tehran appears to have failed to still the anger that voters feel about Netanyahu’s decision to renew the Gaza during the second stage of the US/Qatari-brokered ceasefire.

According to the latest opinion polls, 59 percent of Israelis want the Gaza War to stop and 49 percent think that Netanyahu is continuing to fight for his personal political considerations.

They are also angry that Netanyahu has damaged Israel’s international standing; appears totally unconcerned about the fate of the hostages and Palestinian civilians.

Many also claim that he is damaging Israel’s long-term economic prospects. That view is supported by a report this week from respected human rights lawyer Francesca Albanese, calling for companies to stop doing business with Israel because they are helping to finance a genocide.

There is also the issue of the warrants for war crimes for Netanyahu and his Defense Minister Yoav Gallant.

And finally, next week, the prime minister is due to testify in case in a trial which he faces charges of political corruption, bribery and fraud.  This week US President Donald Trump called for the charges to be dropped and Netanyahu pardoned. His interjection, however, appears to have backfired and many Israelis objected to the American president interfering in the Israeli legal process.

As with most politicians’ relationship with the voters, it comes down to a matter of trust. Netanyahu, however, doesn’t even have the “partial trust” of half of the electorate, according to a poll this week.

But, and it is the biggest of Buts, one cannot write-off Benjamin Netanyahu. At 75, he is Israel’s longest-serving prime minister and has repeatedly managed to worm his way back into office.

* Tom Arms is foreign editor of Liberal Democrat Voice and author of “The Encyclopaedia of the Cold War” and “America Made in Britain".