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Tom Arms’ World Review

Middle powers rule. Or at least they should try to. That was the message of the erudite Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney at Davos this week. And as he spoke there were lot of sage heads nodding in agreement.

Carney started from the premise that the old US-led rules-based world order was over, finished, kaput, dead and buried.

Without specifically naming the American president, Carney made it clear that the US president had created a “rupture” in the diplomatic fabric and that humanity was entering a darker less kind world in which might makes right.

In this world there will be two major powers—China and the United States. If Russia succeeds in Ukraine and moves on the Baltic States and possibly Moldova and Poland, it could be a third power.

In such a world the smaller countries—and what Carney called “the middle powers”, were simply there to be exploited, squeezed, trampled upon and discarded without any concern for their rights or well being. But, said the former governor of the Bank of England and Bank of Canada, there is a solution to this dark scenario: Join forces and create an economic, political, diplomatic and military bloc that protects the middle countries common values.

The middle countries need to cooperate more closely. The super powers work best by divide and conquer rule. Trump’s antipathy towards the EU is proof of that. So, to counter that policy the middle countries must not allow the US and China to divide them. They must—as much as possible—negotiate with the great powers as one bloc.

Carney’s key line at Davos was: “Middle powers must act together, because, if we are not at the table we are on the menu.”

Acting together means reduce dependence on great powers or on supply chains that can be used as leverage. It means diversifying economic, trade, energy and technology ties. Lesser dependence means lesser vulnerability.

Like-minded countries should partner with other like-minded countries to share the costs of defense, standards and resilience rather than leaving it to the great powers to set the parameters.

Mark Carney even had a name for his proposal—“variable geometry” which means countries negotiate a set of different alliances where different groups work together on specific issues based on shared values and interests.

If you want proof of the value of Carney’s words then just note Donald Trump’s reaction. He was so angry at Carney’s speech that he withdrew his offer to admit Canada to his Board of Peace. Well, if Trump doesn’t like it….

King of the World. That is effectively the job that Donald Trump is trying to create for himself with the creation of his “Board of Peace”. That is if it is successful.

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Tom Arms’ World Review

Trump

Trump has either lied, is lying or is incompetent. That is the view of an increasing number of prominent MAGA supporters.

The reason? The Jeffrey Epstein files. The so far secret activities of the late convicted paedophile is one of the key conspiracy theories that put Trump in the White House.

One of Trump’s election promises was to publish the Epstein files and prove that key Democrats were implicated in Epstein’s under-age sexual orgies. Now he says there are no files, they are a Democrat fabrication and MAGA supporters should shut up about them.

To be precise he posted on Truth Social this week:

What’s going on with my ‘boys’ and, in some cases, ‘gals?’ They’re all going after Attorney General Pam Bondi, who is doing a FANTASTIC JOB! We’re on one Team, MAGA, and I don’t like what’s happening. We have a PERFECT Administration, THE TALK OF THE WORLD, and ‘selfish people’ are trying to hurt it, all over a guy who never dies, Jeffrey Epstein.

For years, it’s Epstein, over and over again. They wrote documents written by Obama, Crooked Hillary, Comey, Brennan, and the members of the Biden Administration—they created the Epstein Files and if there was something bad in them for MAGA, the Radical Left Lunatics would have already released it.

LET PAM BONDI DO HER JOB — SHE’S GREAT!

The 2020 Election was Rigged and Stolen, and they tried to do the same thing in 2024—That’s what she is looking into as AG, and much more. We are saving our Country and MAKING AMERICA GREAT AGAIN.

They problem is that the MAGA crowd has become fixated on conspiracy theories. They are the glue that holds them together. For Trump to simply dismiss one of the most prominent conspiracy theories that he propagated is raising serious questions about his credibility.

Mike Cernovich, a prominent Trump supporter, wrote on X: “No one is buying it. No one is dropping it.”

Natalie Winters, one of Steve Bannon’s protégés, wrote: “I just think it’s frankly very grifty to have spent your entire career promoting…the idea that there is this deep state, the idea that there’s this unelected class of. You know, bankers, corporations, countries, intel agencies, blah, blah, blah. And then finally, you have the power to expose it, and either you’re not, because there’s nothing there, in which case it makes you a liar—and I don’t believe that—or you’re ineffective, or you’re compromised.”

Trump responded to his latest critics with what must rank as one of the all-time great insults. He called them “weenies.”

Dalai Lama

The Dalai Lama turned 90 this month. The world loves this wise old Buddhist monk. Except the Chinese. They hate him.

To Beijing, the 90-yeard-old saffron-robed monk represents Tibetan independence. In fact, he is—for many Tibetans—the spirit of independence reincarnated.

Tibet has been in and out of the Chinese orbit for centuries. During the 19th and first half of the 20th century, Tibet was free of Chinese control. During that interregnum, two-year-old Tenzin Gyatso, was declared the reincarnation of the previous Dalai Lama and carted off to Lhasa to be taught how to be a theocratic ruler,

In 1950, Mao’s communist troops started to reassert control over Tibet and by 1959 the 24-year-old Dalai Lama’s position had become untenable and he fled to India where he established a government-in-exile.

In the intervening years, the Dalai Lama has travelled the world n his fight for Tibetan independence, and over the years, has tempered his positions. He no longer advocates full independence from Beijing. Instead, he proposes that Tibet become an autonomous region within China.

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Tom Arms’ World Review

Ukraine

War Is Hell and as Zelensky’s troops enter the second week of their counter offensive it is clear that Ukraine is the seventh circle. The Ukrainians are taking heavy losses for so far minimal gains as they hurl themselves against an elaborate Russian “defense in depth.”

President Zelensky has said that the counter offensive is going according to plan. General Mark Milley, Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, more phlegmatically reported: “It is a very difficult fight.”

The Ukrainians have had some success in the Donetsk region where they appear to have regained about 40 square miles of territory. They are also advancing on Bakhmut. But the Russians appear to have the edge in the vital Zaporizhia region where the Ukrainians have lost a number of tanks, including recently supplied German Leopards and American tanks. Having said that, Putin has admitted to losing 54 tanks in the past ten days.

To a large degree the counter-offensive appears to be a big step up from a probing exercise but not yet a full-scale frontal assault. The Ukrainians are still looking for weak points in the 600-mile long Russian defensive line and neither side has committed its reserves.

Among the major developments in Russia this week have been the Russia Day celebrations on Monday and a new enlistment law. The first marks the day that Russia seceded from the old Soviet Union and was used by Putin to deliver a rally around the flag speech while warning of tough times ahead. The second allowed the recruitment of convicts into the regular army. This will enable the government to reduce unpopular conscription levels but will also exacerbate the conflict between the Wagner Group and the army, as prisons are also the main recruiting ground for the mercenary group.

USA

Teflon Trump can’t win. His arraignment on federal charges this week may have failed to dent his popularity among hard-right Republican voters, but the wider voting public is thoroughly unimpressed. The numbers don’t stack up for a third Trump attempt at the White House.

Registered Republicans are 38.8 million of the voting population. At a guess I would say that roughly 3.8 million of them are either so sick of Trump that they will either abstain or vote against him.

Democrats are 49 million of the voting population. I reckon that they will all vote for the Democratic candidate – even if he is an octogenarian – to insure that Trump stays out of the White House.

That leaves the Independents who are 41 percent or 65.68 million of the registered voting population. The latest opinion polls show that they are split 40/60 with the 60 percent adamantly opposed to Trump returning to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.

That means that if all the registered voters cast their ballots tomorrow for one of the two main candidates that Trump (assuming he is the Republican candidate) would receive about 44 million votes and the Democratic candidate (whomever that may be) would receive 78.8 million.

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Tom Arms’ World Review

Mahsa Amin’s death

They are burning their headscarves and police cars in Iran. Persian women are fighting back against the mullahs’ morality police. The catalyst for their anger is the death in police custody of 22-year-old Mahsa Amin. The Iranian authorities claim she died of a pre-existing heart condition. Rubbish, say her family, there was nothing wrong with her heart. She died, they claim, because she was beaten in the police van on the way to the station. Ms Amin was arrested because she was wearing her hijab or head scarf improperly. That is common offence which the morality police monitor along with the wearing of tight trousers and leggings, holding hands or kissing in public.

Iran is not the only Muslim country with morality police. Afghanistan has probably the most severe. Iran probably holds the number two slot. Others include Nigeria, Sudan and Malaysia. Then there is Saudi Arabia where the ruling family’s adoption of Islam’s strict Wahhabi sect led to the establishment of the notorious Committee for the Protection of Virtue and Prevention of Vice. Better known among Saudis as simply “The Committee.” Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, however, has been circumscribing the morality police to the point of near extinction. The backlash in Iran may force the Mullahs to follow suit which can only undermine their wider claim to political legitimacy.

Another lurch to the right in Europe

Europe is taking another lurch to the right. This month two national parties with links to a fascist past have either come to power or are poised to do so.

Sweden has been known as Europe’s most tolerant country towards cultural diversity. But this month the rabid anti-immigrant Sweden Democrats emerged as the second largest party and is forming a government with the centre-right Moderates.

In a disturbing echo of Donald Trump, party leader Jimmie Akesson declared it was time to “Make Sweden Great Again.”

Georgia Meloni, leader of the Brothers of Italy has an equally upsetting motto which links her party to its fascist past—“God, family and fatherland.” Ms Meloni is expected to emerge as Italy’s prime minister after Sunday’s vote. Her party is Eurosceptic, anti-immigration, anti-gay, anti-abortion and has expressed doubts about NATO membership.

Italy and Sweden join Hungary, Britain, Czech Republic, Slovakia Austria and others who have lurched rightwards. There are differences between them but the one common element is the disturbing trend to portray their country as a victim.

Iceland

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Can we learn from the Pirates leading the polls in the home of the world’s oldest parliament?

Postcard from Reykjavík


The photo above shows the location of the world’s first parliament, which was established here in Þingvellir, Iceland in 930. Interestingly, the Alþingi or Althing was held in the fissure (like a plain) between the edge of the European continental plate (on the right) and the end of the American continental plate, which is out of shot to the left.

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The Icelandic comic has the last laugh

Jon Gnarr is an Icelandic comic. In late 2009 he started a political party – The Best Party – as a satire on Icelandic politics. In this month’s municpal elections in Reykjavik his party emerged the largest (with 6 of the 15 seats) and he is now Mayor. This was his campaign video:

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Opinion: Another Greek tragedy? Time for Europhiles to admit the dream is over

In case you wouldn’t have noticed, another crisis has come on top of the big one.

For those who understand French, read carefully this article in the March 5 edition of French daily “Le Monde” . A former German finance vice-minister buries the euro as it is now and advises all Southern-Europe economies (including France) to get out of the Eurozone if they don’t clean up their act, behave more like Germany and adopt many unacceptable social measures. Some German backbenchers have suggested these might include selling off some islands (who would buy these? You guess).

That doesn’t yet …

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