India is likely to escape the consequences of allegedly murdering a Sikh Canadian on Canadian soil.

And this in turn will have consequences for democracy and political structures in India, the sub-continent’s relations with the rest of the world, Canadian relations with its allies and the international rule of law.

Let’s start with the fact that the claim that Indian intelligence agents were responsible for the murder of Sikh nationalist Hardeep Singh Nijjar is – so far – an allegation. And that the government of Narendra Modi has dismissed it as “absurd.”

But, at the same time, it is inconceivable that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau would have stood on the floor of the Canadian parliament and announced that he had “credible evidence” that India was behind the murder given the dire repercussions of such a claim.

India is fast becoming one of the most important countries in the world. It has overtaken China as the most populous. Its economy is growing at 7.8 percent and is set to overtake Japan as the world’s third largest.

It has become a go-to destination for Western companies seeking to “de-risk” their investments in China. And as a member of the Quad Alliance it is a key counter-balance to Chinese influence in the world.

All this means that the US and its allies – including Canada – have been actively courting the Delhi government of Modi and this courtship has turning a blind – or at least blinkered – eye to its excesses.

India is more of a loose confederation than centralised federal system. It has 12 official languages and an estimated 2,000 tribal groupings. Its 76 years of independence have been marked by a constant struggle to maintain a unitary state develop a common national identity.

Modi is determined to forge that identity based on the dominance of Hinduism, which is practised by 80 percent of the population. To that end he is prepared to suppress press freedom, the courts and even use violence to achieve his objective. The establishment of a unified Hindu nation—not democracy—is now the defining goal of the Indian government.

The Sikh Diaspora’s struggle for an independent Sikh nation known as Khalistan is seen by the Indian government as a threat to its objective.

India’s well-established foreign policy is an additional problem. It is studiously not pro-Western. It is, however, anti-Chinese because of a long-standing border dispute. But it also has historic good relations with Moscow which it is struggling to maintain while improving relations with the West.

But most important of all India sees itself as non-aligned and the leader and spokesperson for the developing world. And in common with the developing world—and China and Russia—India resents the post-war legal and political structures which it says were written by America and Europe for the benefit of America and Europe.

One of those laws is that countries cannot murder the citizens of other countries on the other country’s territory. Russia suffered the consequences of breaking that law when in 2018 it attempted Russian to poison former Russian spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia. A remnant of lethal novichok when onto kill Brit Dawn Sturgess.

The result was the expulsion of Russian diplomats and sanctions by Britain and all of its allies. British Prime Minister Theresa May had no more evidence of Russian involvement than Trudeau when he accused the Modi government.

The murder of Hardeep Singh Nijjar has sparked off a round of tit for tat diplomatic expulsions between India and Canada; the shelving of a major Indo-Canadian trade deal and ominous travel advisories from both countries. But the reaction from Canada’s allies has ranged from muted to a deafening silence.

Britain has simply said it is in close touch with its Canadian allies. Australia is “deeply concerned”. Washington is also “deeply concerned” and has urged Delhi to cooperate with Canadian investigations. But so far none of Canada’s allies in NATO or the Five Eyes Group have talked about sanctions or diplomatic expulsions.

It seems likely that economic and security considerations trumps the rule of law.

* Tom Arms is foreign editor of Liberal Democrat Voice and author of “The Encyclopedia of the War” and the recently published “America Made in Britain". He has a weekly podcast, Transatlantic Riff.