United States

Mid-term election fever is starting to grip America. And it comes at a time when American’s trust in their electoral system – the cornerstone of any democratic state – is plummeting.

It is still six months before Americans troop to the polls to elect a third of their senators and all the members of the House of Representatives. But the candidates are busy at the hustings. This is mainly because American elections are a two-stage affair. Stage one the parties vote to decide who will be their candidate and in stage two the winners of the “primaries” compete for the main prize.

But will the elections be free and fair? Only 20 percent of Republicans think they will be, 25 percent of Democrats and 22 percent of Independents.

For this lack of trust, we can thank the current resident of the White House. His never-ending allegation that the 2020 presidential elections were stolen and claims that the current mid-term elections are likely to suffer the same fate have encouraged his MAGA base—and others to deny the veracity of any election result.

Actually, polls show that distrust in Americans started at the turn of the century with the Gore v. Bush presidential election. It recovered under Obama but then took a major beating when Trump came along. Basically, his assertion is that it is inconceivable that people would vote against him. Therefore, it is impossible for Donald Trump – or anyone he supports – to lose an election.

Democrats claim that to ensure that he wins, Trump will go to any length, including creating conditions that allow him to declare martial law to prevent elections being held. They also fear that he could send armed ICE agents to key voting districts to intimidate African American and Latino voters from turning up to vote or simply declare some votes invalid.

All of those measures would be illegal and would be quickly challenged and reversed in the courts. But then the courts themselves could be used by both parties to challenge results with which they disagree. This could result in delaying the seating of elected representatives and bring the electoral process into further disrepute.

Republicans fear that the Democrats will flood the voting booths with illegal immigrants and claim this has been a feature of past elections. It is true that some illegal immigrants have voted and that they voted Democrat. But the issue is a major red herring. In 2024, Michigan recorded the largest number of attempted votes by illegal immigrants – 15 out of 5.7 million votes cast. Other states recorded either single digits or no cases at all.

The House of Representatives Committee on House Administration is tasked with the job of adjudicating any disputed elections to the US House of Representatives. To try and head off any Trumpian-backed disputes, committee member Joe Morelle has produced a list of 150 ways that Trump may try to unfairly influence or block elections.

These have all been discussed with state election officials who are responsible for organising and monitoring elections (the federal government is expressly forbidden from involvement in elections). Whether that is enough remains to be seen. Certainly, the stakes are high in November. A Republican victory would mean two more years of Trump unfettered. A Democratic landslide—which is widely predicted– could lead to a third impeachment or, at the very least, a Trump White House encumbered by endless congressional investigations.

Iran

Chaos, chaos everywhere, with no end to the Iran War in sight.

Both Tehran and Washington are hotbeds of infighting and backstabbing without the sign of any clear leadership which is a prerequisite to end the war.

In the Pentagon this week, Secretary of Defense/War Pete Hegseth fired John Phelan, who as Secretary of the Navy was responsible for organising the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian ports.

No reason was given for the “immediate” sacking of Phelan, but it has been widely reported, that Hegseth was annoyed with Phelan going behind his back to speak directly with the president.

Since the fighting began, Hegseth has also fired Army Chief of Staff General Randy George, and Jacqueline Smith, editor of the editorially independent Pentagon newspaper “Stars and Stripes.” Since taking office, the former TV presenter has sacked more than a dozen senior generals and admirals.

As for Trump himself, his strategy appears to consist of a series of rolling ultimatums as he goes from calling on the Iranian people to rise up; to bombing Iran into the “stone age;” to joint management of the Strait of Hormuz to naval blockade….

Things are as bad – if not worse – in Tehran. The leadership is split between pragmatists who want to negotiate an end to the war and fundamentalists who believe Allah will come to the rescue. If he does not, they are prepared to continue their holy war until they are carried off to paradise.

Money is the problem for Tehran. They do not have it. None of the government employees are being paid—including the police and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard (IRG).

The pragmatists appear to be led by Mohammed Bagher Ghalibof who led the Iranian delegation to the recent failed ceasefire talks with Vice President J.D. Vance. When Ghalibof returned to Tehran he was castigated for giving away too much in negotiations while the Americans accused Ghalibof of being inflexible.

It is also unclear who oversees the government. Is it Mojtaba Khameini who became Supreme Leader on the death of his father early in the war but has not been seen in public since? Or is it Ghalibof? Or is it the IRG? Or is it someone else altogether? With whom should the Americans – or anyone else – talk?

To complicate matters further there appear to be splits within the IRG. On onside are the money men. On the other those directing the fighting. There are further splits within the military as to how to prosecute the war.

Gulf States

As the Iran War continues, spare a thought for the millions of South Asian workers who rely on jobs in the Gulf states to support their families back home.

The vast majority of them are manual labourers without any job security or residency status. As the war drags on, the money that is used to pay for their work is drying up and these workers are being unceremoniously fired and sent home.

In 2024 more than 20 million people from South and South-East Asia were employed in the six countries that make up the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). In 2025, Bangladesh alone received $32 billion in remittances from their workers in the Gulf countries. This was equivalent to 6.5 percent of the country’s GDP.

In India, remittances account for 3.5 percent of GDP and in tiny Nepal GCC remittances account for a staggering 25 percent of the country’s GDP.

Of course, there is a ray of hope. When the fighting stops (which must eventually occur) then these workers will be needed more than ever to repair the damage wrought by missiles and drones.

* Tom Arms is foreign editor of Liberal Democrat Voice. He also contributes to “The New World” magazine and lectures on world affairs. He is the author of “America Made in Britain,” two editions of “The Encyclopaedia of the Cold War” and “The Falklands Crisis.”