I have woken most mornings since President Trump came to power with a feeling of foreboding as I switch on the radio in the morning to discover his latest announcements. Add to that a sense of déjà vu when events in the Middle East top the news and I can’t say I start the day in the best of spirits.
Back in 2002 an American President was convinced that regime change in a Middle Eastern country would put a stop to terrorism carried out by so called Islamic groups and avenge the atrocity that occurred on the 11th September 2001, better known as 9/11, when the World Trade Centre’s twin towers, the Pentagon and a fourth plane that never reached its target were destroyed in infamous acts of infamy.
There followed many claims by President Bush Jnr that Iraq was connected to the 9/11 suicide attacks, and that the country was developing weapons of mass destruction (WMD).
UK PM Tony Blair bought into this narrative and while the weapons inspectors could find no irrefutable proof that such WMD actually existed, let alone presented a danger to the UK just minutes away as his ‘dodgy dossier’ claimed, his Government proposed joining the USA in actions against Iraq.
At the same time attempts were being made to obtain United Nations support for a resolution to back the desires of President Bush and Tony Blair and others in wanting to invade Iraq and take out Saddam Hussein. Public opinion on both sides of the Atlantic backed the idea.
This was something of a dilemma for those of us who support a rules based international order. For the international order to hold you cannot invade a sovereign country without UN backing.
I remember the day of the vote so well because Parliament was recalled in the middle of the party conference season, only it was the Liberal Democrat conference that was taking place that week. Almost our entire Parliamentary Party were in Brighton, and we all travelled together on a train to London for the debate and vote.
Under Charles Kennedy’s leadership and the advice of our defence spokesman Ming Campbell, we reached a conclusion that we would not back the invasion of Iraq in the absence of evidence of weapons of mass destruction and importantly, the support of the United Nations. Our votes were not enough to overturn the majority of Labour and Conservative MPs who backed the Prime Minister.
I look back at that time and can see it was where the international order broke down. What happened in Iraq led to dozens of terrorist organisations across the Middle East springing up, sustained in part by the belief that there are different rules by which the more powerful and wealthy nations operate rather than the agreed international standards of behaviour.
More recently we have seen the invasion of Ukraine by Russia without a mandate, and the disproportionate response by Israel to the outrageous attack by Hamas terrorists on October 7th, 2023. We are now seeing this again writ large against Iran.
There are so many unintended consequences when a country engages in military action. If the aim is regime change in Iran, then look out for it encouraging regime change the other way in next door Pakistan where the presence of US military bases is deeply resented, and where a nuclear weaponed Pakistan only remains safe while under the control of a military under the direction of a parliamentary democracy. But there are forces within that would swap democracy for theocracy which begs the question, if you can go to war with a country to stop it obtaining nuclear weapons, how do you counter one that already has them, especially one filled with public anger to use them against Israel, the USA and others in the name of their God?
As the saying goes, those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.
* Adrian Sanders is the Honorary President of Devon & Cornwall Liberal Democrats, and was the MP for Torbay from 1997 to 2015.
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Yes, Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014 without a UN mandate, conducted an illegal referendum, recognised Crimea as independent and then announced it was agreeing to a request for Crimea to join the Russian Federation – all totally illegal under international law.
15 years earlier, NATO launched a bombing campaign against Yugoslavia without a UN mandate, forced Yugoslavia to withdraw from part of its territory – Kosovo – and then individual NATO countries recognised Kosovo as an independent country.
Now, the USA bombs Iran without a UN mandate when there was absolutely no evidence of Iran posing an imminent threat to the USA.
It appears that seeking UN mandates before initiating military action is the exception rather than the rule.
A very wise post from Adrian Sanders –
In the US, rich Americans exploiting their economic power to promote ever more right-wing economic policies to become mega-rich and ever more powerful at the cost of large parts of the US being left behind in their country which leads to a valid sense of resentment in those parts at the decline in those areas, in turn fed off by authoritarian right wing demagoguery which promotes a narrative of division by blaming not the mega rich, but the others who are just doing OK.
Likewise in the Middle East, rich Arab sheikhs exploiting their economic power to become mega-rich and ever more powerful at the cost of large parts of the region being left behind which leads to a valid sense of resentment in those parts at the decline in those areas, in turn fed off by right wing authoritarian religious extremists who promote a narrative of division by blaming not the mega rich, but the others who are just doing OK in other countries.
Meanwhile in the UK …
Liberal Democracy is under attack across the world, partly because some chose to exploit its reason and reasonableness.
We have to defend it.
Thank you Adrian for reminding us in some detail of our opposition to the Iraq war, which clearly showed our international values. Ed Davey should be doing the same now and unfortunately he is not strong enough on this; we get insufficient publicity but now more than ever we must show people what we stand for, because the general trend is against Liberal Democracy and we must do all we can to encourage support for it with strong simple unhesitiating messages that it can work for all.
A good article and a relevant warning about Pakistan and the possible “unintended” (but foreseeable) consequence of action in Iran.
One thing though: the UN Security Council is not fit for purpose. There was only a very brief window after the fall of Communism and before the rise of Putin when it worked – as it did during the first Gulf War. Since then, the vetos of the permanent members mean that even the most egregious actions by any ally of any of Russia, China or the USA will go unpunished.