Trump

MAGA is divided. Its strength in the past that it has been united behind one man—Donald Trump.

Whatever he said was taken as gospel. Whatever he did was heroic.

But now there is a possibility that he may decide to join forces with Israel and drop a bunker-busting bomb on Iran’s underground nuclear enrichment facilities. As a result some of the shine is coming off MAGA’s great leader.

“This has not been thought through,” said Trump’s former campaign manager Steve Bannon. He added: “Stopping forever wars is one of the three planks of the MAGA Movement.”

Tucker Carlsson is known as Trump’s lead trumpeter. “I am afraid this (the US bombing of Iran) will see the end of the American Empire,” he said.

And then there is loony MAGA to the core Marjorie Taylor Greene: “Forever wars, intervention, regime change, put America last, kill innocent people, are making us broke and will ultimately lead to our destruction.”

Then on the other side are figures such as senators Lindsay Graham and Mitch McConnell. They have both called on the president to support Israel and strike Iran while it is at its weakest. But then they are Old Guard rather than MAGA.

Iran

Iran desperately needs friends. Unfortunately for Tehran they appear to be backward in coming forward.

The two most likely candidates for a supporting role are China and Russia. The Russians have been the grateful recipients of Iranian-made drones which are making an impact in the Ukraine War.

Moscow was quick to condemn the Israeli attack which it said was unprovoked and in breach of the UN Charter. The Russians also accused Moscow of undermining diplomatic efforts to persuade Iran to peacefully abandon any nuclear ambitions.

That all sounds very warlike, and in January of this year Tehran and Moscow signed a 20-year “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” which covered a wide range of interests including, defense, intelligence sharing, nuclear technology and energy. The agreement, however, does not commit Russia to come to Iran’s defense if the latter is attacked.

On Thursday Moscow closed all of its diplomatic offices in Iran and withdrew its entire diplomatic staff. They were needed if Putin was going to provide substantive aid.

China—in total disregard of sanctions—gets 20 percent of its oil from Iran. In 2021 Tehran agreed to become a key link in China’s Belt/Road Initiative. In 2023 China brokered a diplomatic rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

China wants to increase its influence in the Middle East and its sees Iran as its Trojan horse in achieving that goal. Unfortunately it took four days for President Xi Jinping to get around to even making a statement on Israel’s attack. And then it was to offer China’s good offices as a peace broker rather than as no-holds barred Iranian supporter.

The fact is, Tehran is a rogue state. It exports terrorism and destabilises the world order. Few people outside of Iran would grieve its demise and many inside would also be glad to see the fall of the theocracy. But that could only make the mullahs more dangerous as they are backed into a corner with no option but to lash out in return for a guaranteed ticket to an Islamic paradise.

Gaza

There a new answer to the Gaza aid crisis—the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation.

Virtually all other aid to Gaza is being blocked. In fact, this week, 30 Gazans were killed when Israeli Defense Force soldiers opened fire on Gazans gathered at a distribution hub operated by NGOs. The UN says that more than 200 people have killed while collecting food at aid stations.

The GHF, however, seems to be able to get the aid through. This could have something to do with the organisation’s suspected links to the Israeli government and the Trump Administration.

The organisation was incorporated in Delaware two weeks after Trump’s inauguration. Its director is Johnnie Moore, an evangelical preacher with close ties to the president. The GFH has raised $150 million to spend on food for Gazans.

Exactly where the money has come from no one is saying. But most people suspect it is coming from inside Israel.

Who cares if vital food, equipment and clothing is reaching hard-pressed Gazans? Someone might because it is possible that heavy string is attached to the aid. Among GHF’s keenest supporter is far-right Economics Minister Bezalel Ben-Smotrich. The Boston Consulting Group, which helped to set up the GHF, has since distanced itself from it and the foundation’s first director resigned, protesting that it breached humanitarian principles.

The belief is that the GHF is being used by Israelis to create conditions for the removal of all Palestinians and the introduction of Jewish settlers. The GHF hubs are being set up near the Egyptian border which means that if the Gazans want aid they must congregate near the border with Egypt.

Ben-Smotrich, Trump and Netanyahu, have talked openly of resettling the Palestinians in Egypt. If they were channelled into the border areas and then the border crossing was opened by the Israeli authorities, many Palestinians would gladly cross into Egypt to escape the nightmare that is Gaza.

* Tom Arms is foreign editor of Liberal Democrat Voice and author of “The Encyclopaedia of the Cold War” and “America Made in Britain".