Tag Archives: hungary

Tom Arms’ World Review

China

The invisible hand of Beijing has been busily pulling the backstage strings to try and organise Iran War peace talks.

Pakistan—which has been the lead country in mediation country—is a close ally of China and is clearly coordinating Its honest broker activities with Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi who prefers to remain in the shadows.

Economically China desperately needs an end to Trump’s War. Ninety percent of its oil comes from Iran and, as the world’s second largest economy, China needs global stability to maintain growth.

At the same time, Chinese President Xi Jinping must be smiling to himself as Donald Trump entangles himself in a needless Middle East war which distracts him away from the Chinese priorities of Taiwan, the Philippines and the South China Sea. It also enables him to project China as a nation of calm reasonableness compared to an America run by an erratic president committed to riding roughshod over international law and conventions.

But what China does not want to do is be seen to be actively involved in discussions about the Iran War. This week a host of visitors including the Spanish prime minister and the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi visited Beijing to try to persuade Xi Jinping to offer direct mediation.

Tehran, for its part, has called on China to guarantee its security. The Chinese have the facilities to do the job. They have a naval base around the corner in Djibouti on the Red Sea. Even closer is their port of Gwadar near in Pakistan near the Iranian border. It is currently used exclusively for commercial purposes, but it could be quickly adapted to military use.

But China’s rulers have looked at the sad experiences of the US and concluded that they have little desire to commit their military to the risk of being dragged into a costly war that will undermine their own strength and brand.

Behind the scenes, backstage, quiet diplomacy—yes. Anything more, No, for fear of being blamed for any failure. And where the Middle East is concerned, failure is the name of the game.

Hungary

It is now time for the big Hungarian clean-up. The new prime minister, Peter Magyar has promised just that, and he has a comfortable super majority to achieve it.

But it will not be easy, Orban has packed the media, industry and academia with his cronies. They have all said they would construct legal obstacles to dislodge them, and the courts have also been filled with Fidesz supporters.

From a foreign perspective Magyar’s biggest challenge will be clawing back funding for the Mathias Corvinus Collegium (MCC). The MCC poses as an educational institute but in reality, is the main financial vehicle for funding an international far-right network of institutions, political parties, pressure groups and think tanks.

The funds for MCC come from shares in Hungary’s massive state-owned energy company MOL. Orban organised a transfer of a large bloc of MOL shares to MCC. They in turn have sent funds to the Reform Party in UK, AfD in Germany, the National Rally in France and Vox in Spain. MCC also helps to finance the Conservative Political Action Committee (CPAC)

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Tom Arms’ World Review

UK and Russia

UK-Russian tensions have been ratcheted up several notches this week. It started when Vladimir Putin sent a Russian frigate to escort two shadow fleet oil tankers through the English Channel.

The move was a response to Sir Keir Starmer’s threat to board and impound any of the sanctioned tankers moving through British waters. Result: stand- off.

The tankers issue was followed by a press conference at which Defence Secretary John Healey announced that British forces—in cooperation with Norway—had foiled a Russian attempt to cut a key undersea cable north of the UK.

Not revealed at the press conference was that the cable in question is the FARICE-1 undersea cable which goes through the Faroe Islands to Iceland and then along the west coast of Greenland into the Canadian Arctic. It is the only cable in the region and is used extensively for military communications in the Arctic where the Russians have established military superiority.

NATO has recently awakened to the Arctic. Trump’s move on Greenland is part of that awakening. Another part is Britain’s decision to this summer send a carrier group to the “Far North.”

The Russian cable-cutting attempt by three Russian submarines was a clear bid to disrupt communications between the carrier group and its command headquarters. If the submarines had been successful, then the British force would have had to rely on satellite communications. These are highly sophisticated but more susceptible to jamming and cyber-attacks than communications through an undersea cable.

Britain should expect more Russian attempts to cut seabed communication cables. The UK is a global hub for undersea communications. Seventy cables run in and out of Britain. They carry normal internet traffic, trillions in financial data and military comms. To cut these cables the Russians have developed a new Gugi and Akula class of submarines that can operate deep undersea levels.

To counter this Defence Secretary Healey this week’s press conference to announce that he is investing $137 million in RAF sub hunters. The government is also increasing the overall defense budget to $350 billion—or 2.5 percent of GDP—by the end of next year.

Germany

Germany is also upping its defenses. But it is created domestic problems on the way.

In January, the government launched its Military Service Modernisation Act. This requires that all men—when they turn 18—complete a government questionnaire about their suitability and willingness to serve in the military. Women can also volunteer to complete the questionnaire.

The aim is to build a database of people who can be called upon to voluntarily serve in the military if there is a sudden increase in tensions.

Many however, fear that the act is a step towards conscription. Their fears seemed to be justified by a clause in the act that all men—regardless of their willingness to serve or not—must notify the Bundeswehr (the German army) before leaving the country for more than three months.

This week Defense Secretary Boris Pistorius tried to allay conscription fears by announcing that men would NOT have to reveal that they were leaving the country for more than three months.

However, fears remain, that Germany’s Military Modernisation Act is a back door to a return to conscription.

Hungary

It has been a long-established diplomatic convention that governments do not interfere in other countries domestic affairs—especially elections.

The Trump Administration is no respected of conventions and this week they proved it by dispatching Vice President JD Vance to Hungary to campaign for incumbent “illiberal” prime minister Viktor Orban.

Vance claimed that his appearance did not really constitute interference in Hungarian elections. He went on to say that he was not telling people whom to vote for “but what I am telling you is that the bureaucrats in Brussels…should not be listened to.” He added the clarion cry: “Go to the polls… stand with Viktor Orban because he stands for you.”

To counter any claims that he was not interfering in the Hungarian electoral process, Vance said that he was in Hungary to counter interference in the elections by the European Commission.

The truth of the matter is that Brussels has carefully refrained from making any comment for fear that they would be accused of interference. Orban and Vance submit that this silence is a form of interference.

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Tom Arms’ World Review

Japan

The Japanese economy is in trouble. Not huge trouble. Its growth rate is a mere 0.5 percent. Inflation looks good at 2.2 percent but the country has an ageing population and low birth rate.

It is unsteady enough that a major setback could have big consequences for the world’s third largest economy. And Trump’s tariffs have created a setback for the country’s car industry. So much so that this week industry leaders took the unusual step of warning of tough times ahead.

Japan is heavily dependent on car exports. According to the International Trade Centre, 20 percent of Japanese exports are cars and car exports account for 28.3 percent of all Japanese exports to the US.

Trump’s tariffs, warned Japanese car manufacturers, will cost the country billions in lost profits and that the industry will be faced to tighten its belt for “the foreseeable future.”

Under the terms of a US-Japan trade agreement negotiated two months ago, across-the-board US tariffs on Japanese goods were reduced to 15 percent in return to a $550 billion Japanese investment in the US.

The problem is that Japan is already the biggest foreign direct investor in the US. At the end of 2024 it had $819.2 billion invested in the US. Much of it was in the car industry. In fact, 70 percent of the Japanese-brand cars sold in the US are manufactured in America.

Honda Motor announced last Friday that it expected the tariffs to cut its profits by approximately $2.5 billion. The previous day, Nissan Motors said it would have broken even this year if not for the tariffs. Instead, it projected a $1.8 billion loss.

Japan’s largest carmaker, Toyota Motors, said earlier this week that it expected tariffs to cost the company about $9.4 billion this year, an upward revision from its August forecast of $9.1 billion. The company said the levies were hitting not only its own exports but also its worldwide network of suppliers.

During his recent trip to Japan, Donald Trump, Mr. Trump said Toyota would sell American-made vehicles in Japan and would spend $10 billion constructing auto plants “throughout the United States.”

As usual, Trump’s hyperbolic comments required clarification. They came from Kenta Ton, Toyota’s chief financial officer who said that the company had made no “formal $10 billion commitment and selling American cars in Japan “was a possibility that Toyota would consider.”

Hungary

Trump faced a diplomatic dilemma as this blog went to press on Friday. Does his relations with a close foreign political ally outweigh the American national interest and, possibly, has chances of winning next year’s Nobel Peace Prize?

Normally any meeting between Donald Trump and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is a glowing session of the mutual admiration society. Orban is seen by many in the administration and the wider MAGA movement as the European precursor for populist conservatism in America.

During Trump’s wilderness years, Orban continued to sing his praises and even visited him at his Mar-a-Lago Florida estate. The fact that Orban’s government was in bad odour with the Biden Administration has also helped him with Trump.

Many have pointed Orban’s crackdown on the media, immigration, courts and academia as a model for Trump’s own actions. And Deputy Secretary of State John Landau recently praised the Hungarian leader for his “unstinting defense of Western Christian values.”

But beside that is the recent sanctions that Trump imposed on Russia’s two biggest oil companies as a sign of the frustration that Trump feels at Putin’s refusal to compromise his positions on Ukraine.

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On the frontline for freedom – Budapest Pride 2025

Flying out to Budapest on Friday, there was some trepidation about this trip – and my fears were confirmed at the first meeting at the Town Hall on Friday evening. As a political representative, I was given a yellow wristband, given to all VIPs on the basis that, if we were arrested, the yellow band should signify status. I’m not sure if that would have worked, but it was an indication of how worried the organisers were, and put the entire weekend into context.

On the Friday night, we gathered at Budapest Town Hall and listened to the Mayor of Budapest, who had bravely confronted Orban and insisted that the Pride protest would indeed go ahead, and that the law that Orban brought in to ban Prides would be overridden by the Mayor’s prerogative as that had precedence. Other significant mayors from major cities – Athens and Amsterdam – spoke of their hope that the March would be peaceful and safe, and the presence of large parliamentary delegations of MEPs and MPs from many countries would make Orban look bad if anything occurred.

Sadly, there were, to the best of my knowledge no British MPs at all – of any party – and the only two attending in a political capacity were Tom Copley, Deputy Mayor for Housing from the GLA, and myself. I stand corrected if anyone else did attend from a UK political delegation – but perhaps that says a lot about the current crisis we are facing here.

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Tom Arms’ World Review

United States

It’s official: The United States judicial system is no longer independent.

And by destroying its independence the Supreme Court has knocked away one of the main pillars of American democracy and left the constitution’s carefully structured and revered system of checks and balances heavily politicised and largely controlled by the executive.

Of course, the US judicial system was already heavily politicised. But the Supreme Court took its role as the top court seriously enough to avoid political judgements. No longer.

America’s legal system is based on English Common Law. Many of the structures were determined by the great 18th-century British jurist William …

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Observations of an Expat: Tyranny of the Majority

“Democracy,” Winston Churchill famously said, “is the worst form of government – except for all those other forms that have been tried.”

Then there is democracy unchained, or without the restraints of the rule of law and free speech.  Also known as “the tyranny of the majority” or the “will of the people” or, perhaps, “democracy flawed.”

These are elected governments with political leaders who have harnessed to their own pursuit of power a perceived threat to the majority, or a growing, vociferous and politically motivated minority.

There are far too many examples to choose from but let’s focus on Hungary, Russia, Israel, India and the US for starters.  In each of these countries, the leaders (or wannabe leader) have won the support of the majority of the population either through lies or by allying themselves with a social movement which promotes one section of society at the expense of another.

Technically speaking, Israel is a democracy with carefully monitored and oft-held elections. Its American supporters are keen to point out that it is the only democracy in the Middle East and this makes the Israelis their only rock-solid ally in the region.

Twenty percent of Israel’s voters are Arabs. As the occupying power, Israel is also responsible for two million Palestinians in Gaza and another two million on the West Bank – none of whom have a vote.  Their rights and concerns are totally ignored by Benjamin Netanyahu because his political base is conservative Orthodox Jews. The Israeli Supreme Court has attempted to protect Arab rights. As a result, Netanyahu is beavering away at dismantling the court and its powers.

Vladimir Putin was recently re-elected President of Russia with 87.5 percent of the vote. Such a large figure is of course suspect, but most observers accept that Putin would have won regardless. He has successfully portrayed himself as the only possible leader of a nation under attack from wicked, grasping Western enemies. His answer is that the best defense is a good offense which means the pursuit of Russian imperial ambitions.

Viktor Orban has cast himself in the role of anti-immigrant, anti-Islamic saviour of ethnic Hungarians and European Judeo-Christian values. “We must state,” said Hungary’s right-wing prime minister, “that Hungarians do not want to be diverse and do not want to be mixed; we do not want our own colour, traditions and national culture to be mixed with that of others.”

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The continuing threat to democracies

I wrote an article earlier this week about the hope for renewed democracy in Turkey should the opposition leader – Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu – be successful in the upcoming Presidential elections. But democracy continues to come under threat across the globe, as more countries seem to be sliding down the steep path to dictatorship and the abolition of civil liberties and human rights.

Human Rights Watch has today published an article focusing on the state of affairs in Tunisia. The authorities have placed a further 17 current or former members of Ennahda, the largest opposition party in the country, in prison. That means that, as of today, over 30 political figures who are critical of President Kais Saied are behind bars accused of “conspiring against state security”. According to Human Rights Watch, the detainees include former ministers, the party President, two vice presidents and the former Speaker of Parliament. The Tunisian authorities have simultaneously shut Ennahda’s offices across the country.

In Myanmar, the military has used a “thermobaric” munition – designed to cause the maximum amount of casualties – on the village of Pa Zi Gyi in response to an opposition-controlled administrative office being opened. The blast was followed by helicopter assaults using cannons, grenades and rockets as innocent civilians tried to flee. A resident confirmed that the anti-junta People’s Defence Forces was present at the opening, but that the office was for tax filing, town meetings and judicial events, not for military purposes.

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Tom Arms’ World Review

China

China’s President Xi Jinping is in the traditional dead end political alley. Mass demonstrations and protests have prompted suggestions from government sources that Beijing is on the cusp of seriously relaxing its zero-covid strategy. But health officials reckon that if he does it could result in 680,000 deaths before the end of winter, according modellers at The Economist.

On the other hand, if Xi fails to relax his Orwellian approach to dealing with the pandemic then the economy and quality of life will seriously suffer and more protests, riots and demonstrations will follow. This will undermine Xi’s claims that only he and the Chinese Communist Party can deliver prosperity and stability.

Xi’s current problems also threaten Chinese claims that their political model is better-equipped to deal with problems than the corrupt West. Xi has only himself to blame for his difficulties. He has insisted on using Chinese-made vaccines instead of the more effective Western alternatives and failed to thoroughly vaccinate the elderly who are more likely to contract the disease and require the greatest care when they do so, thus leaving himself with the unpalatable choice of mass lockdown or mass infection.

Ukraine

President Joe Biden followed up the visit to French President of Emmanuel Macron with half an olive branch to Vladimir Putin: “I’ll meet and talk with you if you are prepared to discuss ending the war in Ukraine.”

Sure, replied Putin, as long as the end is on my terms. That, of course, would mean surrender and defeat for Ukraine and its Western supporters and just demonstrates that Putin has left himself with only two options – total defeat or total victory. The former seems the most likely at the moment.

Neither NATO nor the Ukrainian people show any signs of cracking and China appears to becoming increasingly disillusioned with their Kremlin ally. But more importantly, so are the Russian people.

According to Meduza, an independent Russian investigative news website, a recent Russian government survey showed that support for the “special military operation” has plummeted from 57 percent in July to 25 percent last month. The big drop is blamed almost entirely on Putin’s decision to send another 300,000 Russian men to the Ukrainian front. The returning body bags (6,000-plus according to the Russians and 25,000-plus according to the British Ministry of Defense) are having an impact. But there is no sign of a Russian let-up. This week Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said that military spending would increase by 50 percent next year from four to six percent of GDP.

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Tom Arms’ World Review – 29th May 2022

The 27 EU heads of government are meeting in Brussels next week to supposedly confirm plans to stop imports of Russian oil and gas. It may not happen. Decisions have to be unanimous. Hungary’s Viktor Orban has signalled that he will block the move.

Hungary is dependent on Russian fossil fuels for 100 percent of its energy needs. These can only be delivered by pipelines because Hungary is landlocked. All the pipelines run from Russia. The other EU countries have offered to give Hungary a two-year grace period to find alternative sources. But Orban maintains that he has no alternatives and that stopping imports of Russian gas would destroy the Hungarian economy.

At the same time, the newly re-elected Hungarian leader has used the war in Ukraine to declare a state of emergency which allows him to effectively rule by decree.  Orban claims that the Ukraine war “represents a constant threat to Hungary.” He has already used his new powers to impose fresh taxes to finance an increase in defence spending. Many fear that Orban will abuse the state of emergency to bypass parliament and suppress critics. He is already under attack from Brussels for damaging Hungary’s democratic institutions and the EU is threatening to withhold development funds because of that and allegations of corruption. Former Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt tweeted: “Hungary was already no longer free, now it is no longer a democracy”.

With all this talk about Taiwan and ambiguous or clear US policies on the issue of whether or not to defend the island, one thing has been slightly overlooked – chips. To be precise advanced semi-conductor computer chips. Taiwan produces 92 percent of the world’s advanced semi-conductor computer chips. The remaining eight percent come from South Korea. These tiny electrical conductors are to technology what oil and gas are to industry and transport. Without them our computer-dependent world would come to a sudden halt.

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Tom Arms’ World Review: “Butchers of Bucha”

Here’s a good one: In the wake of the Bucha massacres, a Russia Today commentator opined this week that the dead Ukrainians littering the street were killed by British intelligence because Bucha sounds like butcher in English. This made it easier, he continued, for British newspapers to write headlines such as the “Butchers of Bucha.”

How SIS and/or British troops managed to sneak undetected into Bucha, blow up homes, tanks and roads and kill the inhabitants is left unexplained. But that is of no consequence.  The problem is that too many Russians believe him. In fact, what passes for a reasonably independent opinion poll in Russia this week showed that 80 percent of the population accept the Kremlin version of events. A big part of this support is because the Russian people are denied access to news reports produced from outside Russia.

But this is only part of the story. Putin knows that domestic support is essential for success in Ukraine and he has been laying down the foundational lies since 2007—perhaps even before. These included: Ukraine is governed by Nazis. NATO is threatening to overrun Russia. Russian culture is under threat from the West. Russia is being denied its rightful place as a great power. With this firm propaganda bedrock in place – and total state control of the media – it becomes easier for the Russian public to swallow the inevitable mountain of lies that follow.

It is unsurprising that Russian soldiers are being accused of violent war crimes. Violence begets violence and Russia, according to their own statistics, is a violent society. Russian police have reported that one in four Russian households have suffered domestic violence at some point. The figures are considered a major embarrassment, so much so that the Duma recently voted to massage the statistics by decriminalising several categories of domestic violence in an attempt to improve the national image.

The roots of the problem are directly linked to chronic national alcoholism.  Twenty-five percent of Russian men die before the age of 55 alcohol-related diseases. On average, each Russian downs 1,500 shots of vodka a year. Various governments over the years have tried to curb Russians’ love affair with the bottle. The latest attempt was in 2010 when President Dmitri Medvedev introduced a minimum charge of $3 a bottle of vodka and banned drinking and driving. The legislation, however, appears to have little effect on drinking habits and recently the Kremlin gave into public pressure and amended the drink driving law to allow “one for the road.”

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World Review by Tom Arms

In this weekend’s World Review, LDV foreign correspondent Tom Arms looks at the forthcoming elections in Hungary and the ongoing elections in India. France is quitting Mali. Trump is not the only American politician being threatened by legal action. The Trump campaign has Hilary Clinton in her sights again.

Hungary’s beleaguered far-right Prime Minister Viktor Orban looks to have a secret weapon up his sleeve for the Hungarian general election scheduled for 3 April—Donald Trump. Orban’s ruling Fidesz Party enjoys a two-thirds majority In the Hungarian Parliament and appeared set to win another sweeping victory in April. But then in October the country’s feuding opposition parties decided to unite under the leader of provincial mayor Peter Marki-Zay. To make matters worse, Mayor Marki-Zay is a conservative. That is, he is cut from the same right-wing cloth as Orban—just not as extreme.

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World Review by Tom Arms: The Middle East, Capitol Hill, Boris and Dominic

In today’s World Review, our foreign affairs correspondent, Tom Arms, looks at the outcome of the bloody battle between Israel and Palestinians. Should there be an inquiry into the attack on capitol Hill? Or should the matter be left to the law authorities. The police are also investigating the latest mass shooting in America just as Texas loosens gun control laws. Here in Britain, our conflicts have been political – Cummings, Boris and Hancock. And Hungary’s populist Prime Minister Viktor Orban is coming to Number 10. Will Boris challenge him on human rights?

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Observations of an expat: Coronavirus exploitation

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A pandemic is a perfect excuse for politicians to exploit public fear for their own political advantage—and many of them are doing just that.

Let’s start with Trumpland where the administration’s mishandling of the pandemic means that the country is fast heading for a world-beating 100,000-plus deaths. Trump is using coronavirus to stoke the fires of Sinophobia. China has been the US administration’s chief bogey since 2016 when advisers such as Steve Bannon were warning that a Sino-American war was inevitable. The anti-Chinese stand is also proving popular with the voters in an election year with 70 percent of the electorate critical of China.

China’s President Xi Ji-ping is just as bad. Between Beijing and Washington an increasing number of outrageous conspiracy theories have been launched by both sides. The Chinese have also used the pandemic to boost military operations in the South China Sea and is selectively dispatching its medical equipment to countries where it thinks it can establish a stronger foothold. It has also used Covid-19 to crackdown on Hong Kong dissidents and is claiming in capitals around the world that its relatively successful handling of the pandemic demonstrates the superiority of the country’s political system. The latter claim is a leaky bucket as increasing doubt is poured on Beijing’s death statistics.

One of the most blatant pandemic power grabs is in Hungary. President Viktor Orban has managed to persuade his parliament that the danger of the pandemic means he should rule by decree for an unlimited period. As a result, the already sycophantic press has been further muzzled and public protests have been banned and in some cases criminalised.

In Turkey, President Erdogan, released thousands of prisoners from jail—except the political prisoners. He has also blocked fundraising efforts by opposition city councils in Ankara, Istanbul and Izmir.

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Observations of an expat: Liberty

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Retired UK Supreme Court Justice Lord Sumption recently told Radio Four’s World At One said that when people lose their freedom it is not because tyrants have taken it away. “It is usually because people willingly surrender their freedom in return for protection against some external threat.”

The eminent jurist was talking about measures in the UK to combat coronavirus which he described as a cure “worse than the disease.”

At the moment, I think he is wrong about Britain. But if he was talking about Hungary he would be spot-on. There the Fidesz-dominated parliament has responded to the pandemic by voting Prime Minister Viktor Orban the power to rule by decree for an indefinite period of time.

The right-wing populist Hungarian leader can now lock-up his media critics. He can continue to pack the courts with his cronies and block refugees from entering Hungary. He can close down universities that teach the liberal ideas he despises and dismiss from jobs anyone who makes disparaging comments about his rule. He can even suspend elections. Orban can, in effect, do whatever he wants. And because parliament has surrendered its scrutiny powers, he can do it for as long as he wants without fear of retribution.

Orban has gone on record as saying that his goal is to turn Hungary into an “illiberal state” along the same lines as Russia, China and Turkey. Now—thanks to the Covid-19 pandemic—he has the power to do it.

Hungary is also the leading light in the four-nation East European Visegrad Group of countries. Where he goes the others tend to follow. In fact, Slovakia, Poland and the Czech Republic have already said that they are thinking of passing similar decree-type legislation.

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Daily View 2×2: 31 March 2020

So, welcome back on what is the International Transgender Day of Visibility. By the way, if somebody wants to write about it, and its significance, for us, that would be very gratefully received.

2 big stories

Has the Government been less than wholly accurate in its explanations over why the United Kingdom didn’t take in EU projects to bulk-buy medical kit? The Guardian has seen EU minutes which record the involvement of British officials in four meetings dating back as far as 31 January. Missing e-mails, communication confusion, or simply buck passing by HM Government? A public inquiry might not …

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Opinion: EU needs to resolve the crisis over Hungary’s slide to autocracy and human rights violations

The right-wing populist policies of the Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban, have created real concern over a growing constitutional crisis within the European Union (EU). His Fidesz party secured a two-thirds majority in the 2010 elections giving Viktor Orban, total authority to pass legislation.

Since then, he has been much criticised across the EU, in particular, for his new law setting unacceptable limits on media freedoms. He has also declared the country’s previous constitution invalid and passed legislation with no consultation, declaring a new constitution requiring that all judges older than 62 retire – a cynical ploy thought to favour …

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