China

The invisible hand of Beijing has been busily pulling the backstage strings to try and organise Iran War peace talks.

Pakistan—which has been the lead country in mediation country—is a close ally of China and is clearly coordinating Its honest broker activities with Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi who prefers to remain in the shadows.

Economically China desperately needs an end to Trump’s War. Ninety percent of its oil comes from Iran and, as the world’s second largest economy, China needs global stability to maintain growth.

At the same time, Chinese President Xi Jinping must be smiling to himself as Donald Trump entangles himself in a needless Middle East war which distracts him away from the Chinese priorities of Taiwan, the Philippines and the South China Sea. It also enables him to project China as a nation of calm reasonableness compared to an America run by an erratic president committed to riding roughshod over international law and conventions.

But what China does not want to do is be seen to be actively involved in discussions about the Iran War. This week a host of visitors including the Spanish prime minister and the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi visited Beijing to try to persuade Xi Jinping to offer direct mediation.

Tehran, for its part, has called on China to guarantee its security. The Chinese have the facilities to do the job. They have a naval base around the corner in Djibouti on the Red Sea. Even closer is their port of Gwadar near in Pakistan near the Iranian border. It is currently used exclusively for commercial purposes, but it could be quickly adapted to military use.

But China’s rulers have looked at the sad experiences of the US and concluded that they have little desire to commit their military to the risk of being dragged into a costly war that will undermine their own strength and brand.

Behind the scenes, backstage, quiet diplomacy—yes. Anything more, No, for fear of being blamed for any failure. And where the Middle East is concerned, failure is the name of the game.

Hungary

It is now time for the big Hungarian clean-up. The new prime minister, Peter Magyar has promised just that, and he has a comfortable super majority to achieve it.

But it will not be easy, Orban has packed the media, industry and academia with his cronies. They have all said they would construct legal obstacles to dislodge them, and the courts have also been filled with Fidesz supporters.

From a foreign perspective Magyar’s biggest challenge will be clawing back funding for the Mathias Corvinus Collegium (MCC). The MCC poses as an educational institute but in reality, is the main financial vehicle for funding an international far-right network of institutions, political parties, pressure groups and think tanks.

The funds for MCC come from shares in Hungary’s massive state-owned energy company MOL. Orban organised a transfer of a large bloc of MOL shares to MCC. They in turn have sent funds to the Reform Party in UK, AfD in Germany, the National Rally in France and Vox in Spain. MCC also helps to finance the Conservative Political Action Committee (CPAC)

Most important of all is the money that goes to MCC Brussels, a far-right Brussels-based think tank which hosts conferences opposing immigration, EU over-reach, and LGBT and transgender rights. MCC Brussels is the most influential of Europe’s far-right think tanks. Its fellows receive stipends of between $5,000 and $10,000 a month plus free accommodation in Brussels, health insurance and office space.

Magyar has said: “The state is not going to finance CPAC events or Mathias Corvinus Collegium institutions… I think this was a criminal offense, party finances mixed up with government expenditure.”

But closing down MCC Brussels maybe the most challenging task. Before the election it secured its funding from the parent organisation for the next two years. Director Frank Furedi accepts that Orban’s defeat is “a setback.” But he is confident that MCC Brussels can secure replacement funding from other far-right figures.

The Vatican

Trump is on a sticky wicket with Pope Leo XIV. The American-born Vicar of Christ speaks for 1.5 billion Catholics in the world, including fifty million in the United States.

More importantly the fifty million American Catholics are concentrated in the key swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada. Now add the fact that American Catholics are inordinately proud that Leo is the first American pope.

Then there is the fact that Trump has no leverage over the pope. Leo is elected by the College of Cardinals for life. Trump cannot organise a political campaign against him. And his go-to threat of increased tariffs would be useless against the Vatican City. In short, Trump cannot bully Pope Leo the way he has other world leaders.

The combination should steer Trump away from his normal rude and rambunctious attacks on anyone who dares to cross his path. In a long tweet on Truth Social, the president accused the pope of being “too liberal” and added that he “is WEAK (Trump’s caps) on Crime and terrible for foreign policy.”

The president’s ill-considered remarks followed Leo’s comment that Trump’s Iran war is not a just war.

The leader of the Catholic Church also obliquely attacked evangelical US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth who called on Americans to drop to their knees and pray to Jesus for victory in Iran. Pope Leo countered: “Jesus does not listen to the prayers of those who wage war.”

Pope Leo XIV is the perfect foil to Donald Trump. He is a quiet soft-spoken man who carefully considers his words because he knows that they carry a moral authority which politicians—especially those who preach might is right—can never achieve.

* Tom Arms is foreign editor of Liberal Democrat Voice. He also contributes to “The New World” magazine and lectures on world affairs. He is the author of “America Made in Britain,” two editions of “The Encyclopaedia of the Cold War” and “The Falklands Crisis.”