UK and Russia

UK-Russian tensions have been ratcheted up several notches this week. It started when Vladimir Putin sent a Russian frigate to escort two shadow fleet oil tankers through the English Channel.

The move was a response to Sir Keir Starmer’s threat to board and impound any of the sanctioned tankers moving through British waters. Result: stand- off.

The tankers issue was followed by a press conference at which Defence Secretary John Healey announced that British forces—in cooperation with Norway—had foiled a Russian attempt to cut a key undersea cable north of the UK.

Not revealed at the press conference was that the cable in question is the FARICE-1 undersea cable which goes through the Faroe Islands to Iceland and then along the west coast of Greenland into the Canadian Arctic. It is the only cable in the region and is used extensively for military communications in the Arctic where the Russians have established military superiority.

NATO has recently awakened to the Arctic. Trump’s move on Greenland is part of that awakening. Another part is Britain’s decision to this summer send a carrier group to the “Far North.”

The Russian cable-cutting attempt by three Russian submarines was a clear bid to disrupt communications between the carrier group and its command headquarters. If the submarines had been successful, then the British force would have had to rely on satellite communications. These are highly sophisticated but more susceptible to jamming and cyber-attacks than communications through an undersea cable.

Britain should expect more Russian attempts to cut seabed communication cables. The UK is a global hub for undersea communications. Seventy cables run in and out of Britain. They carry normal internet traffic, trillions in financial data and military comms. To cut these cables the Russians have developed a new Gugi and Akula class of submarines that can operate deep undersea levels.

To counter this Defence Secretary Healey this week’s press conference to announce that he is investing $137 million in RAF sub hunters. The government is also increasing the overall defense budget to $350 billion—or 2.5 percent of GDP—by the end of next year.

Germany

Germany is also upping its defenses. But it is created domestic problems on the way.

In January, the government launched its Military Service Modernisation Act. This requires that all men—when they turn 18—complete a government questionnaire about their suitability and willingness to serve in the military. Women can also volunteer to complete the questionnaire.

The aim is to build a database of people who can be called upon to voluntarily serve in the military if there is a sudden increase in tensions.

Many however, fear that the act is a step towards conscription. Their fears seemed to be justified by a clause in the act that all men—regardless of their willingness to serve or not—must notify the Bundeswehr (the German army) before leaving the country for more than three months.

This week Defense Secretary Boris Pistorius tried to allay conscription fears by announcing that men would NOT have to reveal that they were leaving the country for more than three months.

However, fears remain, that Germany’s Military Modernisation Act is a back door to a return to conscription.

Hungary

It has been a long-established diplomatic convention that governments do not interfere in other countries domestic affairs—especially elections.

The Trump Administration is no respected of conventions and this week they proved it by dispatching Vice President JD Vance to Hungary to campaign for incumbent “illiberal” prime minister Viktor Orban.

Vance claimed that his appearance did not really constitute interference in Hungarian elections. He went on to say that he was not telling people whom to vote for “but what I am telling you is that the bureaucrats in Brussels…should not be listened to.” He added the clarion cry: “Go to the polls… stand with Viktor Orban because he stands for you.”

To counter any claims that he was not interfering in the Hungarian electoral process, Vance said that he was in Hungary to counter interference in the elections by the European Commission.

The truth of the matter is that Brussels has carefully refrained from making any comment for fear that they would be accused of interference. Orban and Vance submit that this silence is a form of interference.

US-Hungarian relations—which Vance described as in a “golden age”—are dependent on the personal relationship between Donald Trump and Viktor Orban.

Trump has exempted Hungary from sanctions on Russian oil. The exemption has proved vital in keeping the Hungarian economy just above recession. Trump has said that the exemption deal is a personal one between him and Orban and that if Orban loses the election his successor will have to renegotiate.

That successor is likely to be Peter Magyar a former prominent member of Orban’s Fidesz party who broke with Orban in 2024 when the party covered up a sexual abuse scandal in government-run children’s homes.

Magyar is running on anti-corruption platform. He has discovered that this is a popular and rich political resource. The EU has blocked $20 billion to Hungary because of corruption and Orban’s anti-democratic, anti-rule of law policies.

The EU’s anti-fraud body (OLAF) has found instances of corruption involving up to $100 billion. These include bribes that are paid for state-run projects and the last-minute rewriting of government tenders so that only Fidesz supporters can win them.

Magyar has promised to end the corruption and unblock the much needed $20 billion in EU funds.

But that is about it. Magyar is no liberal. He is a conservative Christian nationalist who was for years a keen Orban supporter who backed Orban’s anti-EU and anti-immigration policies.

Magyar is, however, a different face. At 45 he is young. He is also energetic. Last year he walked 185 miles from Budapest to the Romanian border because he wanted to “reunite” the country. In his campaign this year he has fulfilled a pledge to hold campaign rallies in all 110 of Hungary’s electoral constituencies. He appears indefatigable and that his put him 20 points ahead in the opinion polls.

Whether that is enough to topple Orban after 16 years in power remains to be seen. Since being elected in 2010, Viktor Orban has secured control of the media; packed the courts with his cronies and altered the electoral system so that Fidesz has an inbuilt advantage.

* Tom Arms is foreign editor of Liberal Democrat Voice. He also contributes to “The New World” magazine and lectures on world affairs. He is the author of “America Made in Britain,” two editions of “The Encyclopaedia of the Cold War” and “The Falklands Crisis.”