Tag Archives: japan

Tom Arms’ World Review

Russia

Russia is a petro-state. Its economy. Its ability to feed its people and, most important of all, its ability to wage war, is tied to the price of a barrel of oil. Twenty percent of government revenues come from the oil and gas industries.

Back at the start of the Ukraine War the price of oil peaked at $120 a barrel. Vladimir Putin was able to wage war, pay pensions and maintain social services while keeping inflation under control and fending off sanctions.

This week oil prices dipped to $62 a barrel. And to persuade the likes of China, Hungary and Slovakia to face the wrath of sanctiongs-imposing countries,  Moscow discounts the oil price by $20 a barrel.

But there is more. One of Russia’s biggest oil customers was India. Recently, Narendra Modi caved in to American pressure and dramatically cut Russian oil imports.

And there is still more. The Americans, French, British, Swedes and others are starting to board and impound ships in the “shadow fleet” of unregistered oil tankers carrying sanctioned oil around the world. Sixty percent of the roughly 1,000-strong “shadow fleet” of oil  tankers are believed to be carrying Russian  oil.

All of above, plus the cost of the war, is beginning to be borne by ordinary Russians. Food inflation, for instance, has soared by 12 percent since Christmas. And if Russians want to eat out that option is fast disappearing along with restaurants and cafes displaying “Open” signs.

Growth in the Russian economy is slowing to a crawl last year it grew by just 0.6 percent and the IMF forecast for this year is 0.4 percent. VAT has gone up. Interest rates are 15.5 percent. Corporate taxes have increased. The government is twisting the arms of bank managers to buy war bonds and the sovereign wealth fund has shrunk from $130 billion at the start of 2025 to $50 billion.

Finance Minister Anton Siluanov is under increasing pressure to produce new and better money-making ideas. His latest is government-owned online casinos.

None of the above is surprising when one considers that the defense budget is reckoned to take up between 40-60 percent of the government budget.

Ukraine is in a terrible state. But Russia—with a million war casualties on top of its economic problems—is not far behind in the war of attrition.

Japan

The unexpected landslide victory of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party has opened the door to a long-cherished aim of Japanese conservatives—revision of the constitution to allow Japan greater military freedom.

In the aftermath of World War Two the allies forced a constitution on Japan which “forever renounced” war. Over the years the pacifist document has been re-interpreted several times to allow the development of a formidable “self-defense force.” But the Japanese military is still constitutionally prohibited from participating in foreign wars or building any weapons that allow them to do so.

Takaichi wants to change the constitution to allow Japan to develop a “more normal” military. With a two-thirds majority in the DIET she can achieve that aim.

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Observations of an Expat: Four-sided Asia Conflict

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has re-ignited the tense Sino-Japanese relations that underscore the region’s volatile politics.

The roots of these tensions go back centuries and will doubtless last for centuries more. At the moment the main players are China, Japan, Korea and Taiwan with America playing an important peripheral role.

Korea and Japan have a long history involving cultural links, wars and cruel colonisation. According to many historians, the Japanese imperial family originated in Korea. It is a fact that many prominent Japanese have Korean genetic roots.

Much of Chinese culture reached Japan through the Korean Peninsula. This included Buddhism, Chinese writing, laws, government models, horsemanship, metallurgy, iron-working, architecture, construction and agricultural techniques.

From the Japanese point of view, Korea offered an invasion route into China. In the 16th century the Japanese fought a four-year war against Korea and were only defeated when the Chinese joined the fight on the side of the Koreans.

Then, of course, there is the Japanese colonial period from 1910 to 1945 with the bitter Korean memories of slave labour and “comfort women.”

Korea also has its problems with China with whom it has had a long on-off relationship which for centuries involved tributes and recognition of Chinese suzerainty. A key element in Korean foreign policy (north and south) is summed up by the word “sadae” which is interpreted as “serving the great” which in turn means that Korea will always prioritise good relations with China to secure protection and legitimacy.

Taiwan is a relatively more recent issue for both China and Japan. Its indigenous inhabitants—Austronesians—are neither Japanese nor Chinese. They are genetically and linguistically related to the Filipinos and Indonesians. It wasn’t until the 16th century that the Chinese started to take a peripheral interest in the island. Then the Dutch arrived and called it Formosa. This spurred the Ming Dynasty to action. They booted out the Dutch and shortly afterwards formally annexed the island.

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Tom Arms’ World Review

Japan

The Japanese economy is in trouble. Not huge trouble. Its growth rate is a mere 0.5 percent. Inflation looks good at 2.2 percent but the country has an ageing population and low birth rate.

It is unsteady enough that a major setback could have big consequences for the world’s third largest economy. And Trump’s tariffs have created a setback for the country’s car industry. So much so that this week industry leaders took the unusual step of warning of tough times ahead.

Japan is heavily dependent on car exports. According to the International Trade Centre, 20 percent of Japanese exports are cars and car exports account for 28.3 percent of all Japanese exports to the US.

Trump’s tariffs, warned Japanese car manufacturers, will cost the country billions in lost profits and that the industry will be faced to tighten its belt for “the foreseeable future.”

Under the terms of a US-Japan trade agreement negotiated two months ago, across-the-board US tariffs on Japanese goods were reduced to 15 percent in return to a $550 billion Japanese investment in the US.

The problem is that Japan is already the biggest foreign direct investor in the US. At the end of 2024 it had $819.2 billion invested in the US. Much of it was in the car industry. In fact, 70 percent of the Japanese-brand cars sold in the US are manufactured in America.

Honda Motor announced last Friday that it expected the tariffs to cut its profits by approximately $2.5 billion. The previous day, Nissan Motors said it would have broken even this year if not for the tariffs. Instead, it projected a $1.8 billion loss.

Japan’s largest carmaker, Toyota Motors, said earlier this week that it expected tariffs to cost the company about $9.4 billion this year, an upward revision from its August forecast of $9.1 billion. The company said the levies were hitting not only its own exports but also its worldwide network of suppliers.

During his recent trip to Japan, Donald Trump, Mr. Trump said Toyota would sell American-made vehicles in Japan and would spend $10 billion constructing auto plants “throughout the United States.”

As usual, Trump’s hyperbolic comments required clarification. They came from Kenta Ton, Toyota’s chief financial officer who said that the company had made no “formal $10 billion commitment and selling American cars in Japan “was a possibility that Toyota would consider.”

Hungary

Trump faced a diplomatic dilemma as this blog went to press on Friday. Does his relations with a close foreign political ally outweigh the American national interest and, possibly, has chances of winning next year’s Nobel Peace Prize?

Normally any meeting between Donald Trump and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is a glowing session of the mutual admiration society. Orban is seen by many in the administration and the wider MAGA movement as the European precursor for populist conservatism in America.

During Trump’s wilderness years, Orban continued to sing his praises and even visited him at his Mar-a-Lago Florida estate. The fact that Orban’s government was in bad odour with the Biden Administration has also helped him with Trump.

Many have pointed Orban’s crackdown on the media, immigration, courts and academia as a model for Trump’s own actions. And Deputy Secretary of State John Landau recently praised the Hungarian leader for his “unstinting defense of Western Christian values.”

But beside that is the recent sanctions that Trump imposed on Russia’s two biggest oil companies as a sign of the frustration that Trump feels at Putin’s refusal to compromise his positions on Ukraine.

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Tom Arms’ World Review

Georgia

If you have a fortune of $5 billion-plus in a country with a GDP of £$24.6 billion you will be a whale in a puddle. Such is the fate of Georgia Dream Party founder and chief backer Bidzina Ivanishvili.

And, if you are willing to part with some of your fortune, you can bend the political structure and electoral systems to your will. Ivanishvili is accused of doing just that in the recent Georgian parliamentary elections which the Dream Party won with 53 percent of the vote,

Bidshina Ivanishvili was born into humble beginnings in 1958 but when the Soviet Union collapsed he moved to Russia to grab what he could in the great Russian carve-up. He ended up with a multinational conglomerate encompassing banking, real estate and heavy industry. He returned to Georgia and in 2011 decided to try his hand at politics by forming the centrist, pro-EU Georgia Dream Party.

Backed with Ivanishvili’s fortune, the Georgia Dream Party won a landslide victory in 2012 elections and Ivanishvili became prime minister. He stepped down a year later saying that he had achieved all his goals and wanted to private life.

But Ivanishvili’s money insured that he remained the power behind the throne. And from that position he subtly tilted the Dream Party towards Russia. At the same time he sought membership with the EU. His behind the scenes influence led critics to brand Ivanishvili the “shadow leader.”

As the years passed it became increasingly difficult to walk the political tightrope between the goal of EU membership and the looming shadow of the bear. To keep Russia happy Georgia Dream introduced anti LGBTQ laws and a Foreign Agents Act. Both laws closely mirrored Russia’s laws on both issues. They also breached EU human rights provisions. As a result the EU broke off negotiations with Georgia.

Georgia Dream’s tilt to Russia was unpopular. Polls showed that 80 percent of Georgians wanted to move closer to the EU as protection from Moscow. All the indications. All the opinion polls, were that after three terms in office, Georgia Dream Party, would lose last week’s election, especially when they campaigned on a promise to ban opposition parties.

They won with 54 percent of the vote. The Opposition, EU election observers, President Biden, and even Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili, called foul. They claimed that Ivanishvili’s Dream Party was guilty of “bribery, intimidation and ballot-stuffing.”

The allegations were rejected by Ivanishvili and Dream Party Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze. They were welcomed by Hungary’s Vilktor Orban who hopes that eventually Georgia will become another “illiberal democratic” member of the EU. And the Russian bear? It stopped being silent and cheered.

Japan

Japan is a different democratic country. That is the reason for the lack of excitement in the wake of the long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s failure to win a majority in the recent election.

The Japanese political system did not evolve over centuries like its Western counterparts. It was imposed on a socially conservative society with a strong respect for traditions, authority and seniority.

The result is a deeply Japanese political foundation with a democratic veneer, but a veneer which Japanese have come to treasure as much as their traditions.

The big word in Japanese politics is “wan” which is defined as being focused on consensus building and group harmony. It contrasts with the adversarial nature of Western politics

The electoral system reflects this consensus building nature. It is a mixed first past the post constituency-based system and proportional representation. The result is that quite often elections lead to a disparity between percentage of votes received and the percentage of seats in the Diet (the Japanese parliament).

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Tom Arms’ World Review

United States

Kamala Harris, asserts Donald Trump, “is a communist.” The assertion is, of course, another blatant falsehood.

And the fact that the former president is resorting to the well-tried, but somewhat discredited, tactic of red-baiting demonstrates how desperate the Trump campaign has become since Harris took over from President Joe Biden.

Kamala Harris does have certain political beliefs and policies that run counter to those of Donald Trump, conservative voters and the Republican Party. The one that rankles most with conservatives is her support for America’s limited social safety net. Vice President Harris supports the universal retirement benefits (ie social security), Medicare (health benefits for the elderly) and Medicaid (health care for low-income Americans). She also favours abortion rights which puts her on a collision course with the evangelical right.

In European terms, such views would put Kamala Harris on the right wing of social democrats. The problem is that a large number of Americans – especially Republicans – drop the word “democrats” when talking about their allies and refer to Europeans simply as “socialists.” Furthermore, many of them wrongly equate democratic socialism with a slightly lesser form of communism.

Communism, however, is different. It promotes a classless society where all property is communally owned and the state controls the means of production. Because this system runs counter to human nature, a repressive government led by an unelected elite is require to enforce it. That is not being proposed by Kamala Harris. But hey ho, Donald Trump has never let the truth stand in the way of a good dog whistle conspiracy.

Gaza

The Gaza ceasefire talks appear to be going nowhere. According to the New York Times, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has tabled a new set of conditions which will almost certainly be rejected in Hamas who are refusing to attend talks in Qatar.

In addition, the assassination of negotiator Ismail Haniyeh has elevated hardliner Yahya Sinwar to the job. He is hiding in Hamas’s tunnel labyrinth and has said he would fight to the last Gazan.

Hanging over the ceasefire talks is the threat of Iran to retaliate for the killing of Ismail Haniyeh on Iranian soil. What that retaliation will involve is a worrying unknown, and the Iranians are keen to keep that way.

To confront the fear the Americans have ordered a nuclear-powered submarine equipped with cruise missiles to the Middle East. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin also despatched to the region a second aircraft carrier group and amphibious craft capable of landing several thousand marines. The Israeli government has told its citizens to stockpile food and water in safe rooms.

The Iranians have been briefing journalists that the one thing that would stop a retaliation would be a Gaza ceasefire. But that prospect is slipping further and further away.

The New York Times reported that this week the Netanyahu government has tabled several more conditions to the proposal they issued in May.  These include Israeli control of the Egyptian-Gaza border and a series of obstacles to the return of refugees to their homes in north Gaza. It has been reported that the new proposals are opposed by both the Israeli negotiators in Qatar and senior military people.

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Observations of an expat: Enemy of my enemy

The well-worn phrase “The enemy of my enemy is my friend” has ancient roots.  It dates back 7,000 years to the Sanskrit literature of India’s Vedas. The Romans and the Koran adapted it to their political needs.

In Modern times it has been repeatedly applied. Possibly the most famous examples are Churchill and Stalin, and Mao and Nixon.

This weekend President Joe Biden will use the well-worn diplomatic axiom to try and persuade the leaders of South Korea and Japan that they should bury deep-rooted historical animosities to unite against the common enemies China, North Korea and Russia.

All three leaders will gather at Camp David on the edge of the Blue Ridge Mountains. They are expected to issue a communique agreeing to closer economic ties, intelligence sharing, a Tokyo-Seoul-Washington crisis hotline, a first ever joint statement of principles and trilateral military exercises.

What they will NOT do is agree to a formal treaty. Neither will Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida formally apologise for Japanese atrocities committed before and during World War two.

There are lots of good and obvious reasons for Japan and South Korea to be friends. Both of them are threatened by China and North Korea and, to a lesser extent Russia. From the US point of view there are 85,000 American troops costing an estimated $15 billion. Washington desperately wants Seoul and Tokyo to shoulder more of the burden.

The South Koreans and Japanese have the means to assume a bigger role but until recently have lacked the will. Japan is the world’s third largest economy and fourth largest military establishment. Fast-growing South Korea is not far behind, ranking 13th in the world GDP list and sixth on the size of its defense establishment.

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Tom Arms’ World Review

While a Chinese balloon floated through American skies President Joe Biden stepped up to the podium to deliver his annual State of the Union Address to a joint session of Congress.

The events were notable for two reasons: They exposed an irrational Yellow Peril fear that more than matches the Red Scare of Cold War years and pointed to a possible new era of American isolationism.

Conspicuous by its absence from Biden’s address to the Joint Session of Congress was any mention of foreign policy. With war raging in Ukraine, Turkey and Syria devastated by earthquakes, South America in political turmoil and China expanding, spying and rattling sabres over Taiwan. one would have thought Biden would have focused more on the world situation.

Instead he spoke about domestic concerns. Biden’s success in creating jobs; protecting American industry and controlling inflation. With at least one eye focused on next year’s elections, he is stealing Republican clothes by shifting to a more isolationist stand.

In this respect, the president appears to be following rather than leading US public opinion. The latest polls show a significant drop in American support for the war in Ukraine. China, however, is a different matter. The Chinese spy/weather balloon (probably a bit of both) did secure a passing reference in the president’s speech; probably because of the hysteria it generated among the American public. The fact is that countries spy on each other. The US spies on China. China spies on the US. Russia spies on….

Most of the spying is unseen. Intelligence operatives skulking in the corridors of power or satellites in space. The balloon, however, could be seen as it floated from Alaska, over missile silos in Montana and North Dakota and then finally to the Atlantic where it was shot down by US fighter planes.

The much discussed Asian Pivot was this week back in the news. For a start, American troops are returning in big numbers to the Philippines. The reason? The threat of China and the need to maintain international access to the South China Sea and protect Taiwan.

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Tom Arms’ World Review

Europe is burning sounds like the title of an apocalyptic Hollywood blockbuster. Unfortunately it is an accurate newspaper headline as the continent this week sweltered in record temperatures.

In normally temperate Britain the thermometer topped 104 fahrenheit. In Spain it reached 109. Spontaneous fires were widespread. The London fire brigade reported its busiest day since the Blitz. Grass and forest fires broke out in France, Spain, Portugal, Greece and Italy. In Greece alone there were 390 forest fires in one week.

The high pressure system responsible for the heatwave is now over Poland and is expected to continue eastwards reaching China in August before eventually being cooled down by the Pacific waters. This follows record temperatures in the Middle East and South Asia and forest fires in California, the Pacific Northwest, Canada and Australia.

Climate change scientists say:  “Get used to it. This is a taste of things to come.”


Joe Biden – America’s 79-year-old president – has covid. It is not surprising. In fact it would be more surprising if he didn’t. Covid has dropped out of the US headlines but not off the health charts. As of Friday nearly a third of the American population – 91,767,460 – have had a confirmed case of coronavirus. 1,050,702 of them have died, including 592 of them this Wednesday alone.

America decided months ago to stop the mandatory wearing of face masks and social distancing and reduced pressure for vaccinations. They were going to learn to live with covid to save the economy. Since then the number of cases has risen dramatically.

The increase in coronavirus cases has not been confined to American shores. Other countries governments are also treating the pandemic as more or less done and dusted. But there have been significant increases in confirmed cases and deaths in Britain, France, Belgium, Germany, India, Greece, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore…. Someone obviously forgot to tell the virus that it was time to pack up.


There is no love lost between Japan and South Korea. In fact, there has been pretty much a hate-hate relationship ever since the Japanese warlord Toyatomi Hideyoshi raped and pillaged his way across the Korean peninsula in the 16th century.

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Vince on Government’s “absurd” Japan trade plans

Vince Cable has said that Theresa May’s visit to Japan has descended into farce before it has even begun. This was after the government briefed that a post-Brexit Britain would seek a trade deal with Japan based on the existing EU-Japan deal.

He put a reality check on the government’s spin:

Theresa May’s trip to Japan to gain a trade deal was already of questionable value because there can be no fresh agreements with other countries until we leave the EU.

But this staggering statement by the government just adds a whole new level of absurdity to their negotiating strategy. It is now saying that the best trade deal we can possibly hope for with Japan post-Brexit is the trade deal we already have as a member of the EU.

The likes of Liam Fox were promising a new dawn of improved trade deals but this clearly shows that even the government now recognises that the best possible deal we can get with one of the world’s largest economies is the deal negotiated by the EU.

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What Japan did while we were sleeping

"2 x inflation in 2 years, 2 x monetary base, 2 x amount bonds purchased" “2 x inflation in 2 years, 2 x monetary base, 2 x amount bonds purchased”The overnight news yesterday from the Bank of Japan spelt out its serious intent to double the monetary base – the type of monetary easing, a l’outrance, that I have been arguing for at LDV, and elsewhere, for a number of years now.

The announcement followed the declaration back in November by the then leader of Japan’s opposition that when elected he …

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“Banzai! Banzai! Banzai!”*

Enough is enough. In the face of soaring national debt, the Liberal Democrat leader has this week called for the Central Bank to be made less independent to pave the way for more aggressive and unlimited monetary easing, a dramatic relaxation of the inflation target accompanied by a major public works programme and a supplementary budget.

Great news! The tragedy is that the Liberal Democrat leader in question is not Nick Clegg speaking on the eve of the Autumn Spending statement, but Shinzo Abe, Leader of the Japanese Liberal Democrats, launching his general election campaign which he is tipped to win. And the reaction of those dreaded markets? Positive – rising 4-5% as other world

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A fresh look at the Diaoyu Islands

On 15 August 2012, 14 Chinese from Hong Kong were arrested by Japanese coastguards in Diaoyu Islands by the East China Sea. Seven of the Chinese were returned to Hongkong by air on 17 August and another seven by boat on 22 August.

Diaoyu (meaning “fishing” in Chinese) Islands are group of 5 very tiny islands situated in the East China Sea between Taiwan and Okinawa. Since the Ming Dynasty, the Chinese have used these islands as a military front against Japanese pirates and 17th century sources showed the maritime boundary to be between the Diaoyu (also known as the “Senkaku” islands to the Japanese) and the Ryukus where turbulent waters mark the edge of the continental shelf (see map).

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Predicting the future: we didn’t turn Japanese

Shortly after the Conservative Party won its fourth general election in a row in 1992, a symposium met to consider the question of whether Britain – formerly a country with regularly rotating government between the two main parties – was turning into a political version of Japan, where the same party had been in power for nearly forty years.

Even between the event occurring and the publication of a book based on it, Turning Japanese? Britain with a Permanent Party of Government (eds. Helen Margretts and Gareth Smyth), political events in both countries had taken a dramatic turn. In Japan the LDP lost power, starting a period of much greater political fluidity with even subsequent LDP Prime Ministers struggling to restore their party’s previous dominance. Meanwhile in Britain the collapse of the Conservative Party’s economic policies following Britain’s enforced exit from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) quickly made the government appear very vulnerable, even if debates in Labour continued on whether, as John Smith preferred, one more heave was all that was needed or whether, as Tony Blair insisted on after John Smith’s death, a more radical reshaping of the party was required to win the next election.

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Opinion: And there was no more sea … (Revelations 21:1)

Have a look at this cutting I found from the Wall Street Journal, 2nd March:

Market has encountered resistance since hitting new highs Tuesday, natural in view of the sweeping rally up to then. Previous pauses in early Jan. and mid-Feb. were followed by renewed rallying; evidence this is a similar period of consolidation seen in pattern of declining volume on recessions, indicating line of least resistance remains upward.

With the Dow today on 10,500 and the FTSE around 5,500, are we moving onwards and upwards towards a recovery?

Nope! The date line on that cutting was 2nd March 1931. That’s about …

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Daily View 2×2: 24 January 2010

It’s Sunday. It’s 9am. It’s time for one of Microsoft’s best adverts (no, really) and the bicycle lane of the week but first the news.

2 Must-Read Blog Posts

What are other Liberal Democrat bloggers saying? Here’s are two posts that have caught the eye from the Liberal Democrat Blogs aggregator:

  • Really interesting health discussion: Sandy Walkington doesn’t got for hyperbole in his description of a public meeting addressed by Norman Lamb but do read through to the end – which has an excellent account of the problems facing anyone trying to come up with policy for the NHS.
  • Snow joke: Residents demand grit bins as Labour stop debate: Haringey councillor Richard Wilson is on the case to get more grit bins so residents can do more to take care of their own streets during future snow falls. Haringey Labour’s response? Waffle. (Words rather than food, that is.)

Spotted any other great posts in the last day from blogs that aren’t on the aggregator? Do post up a comment sharing them with us all.

2 Big Stories

‘Sarah’s Law’ sex offender alert scheme may be expanded

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Japan adds Twitter to the list of internet services banned in elections

Last year I blogged about the unusual attitude towards the internet in Japan:

It’s been a democracy for over 50 years.

60% of its population has access to high speed broadband.

More blogs are written in its native language than in any other language.

And the country is … Japan, where: “Once an official campaign has started, candidates are barred from updating their

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Which country bans election candidates from updating homepages and blogs during an election campaign?

It’s been a democracy for over 50 years.

60% of its population has access to high speed broadband.

More blogs are written in its native language than in any other language.

And the country is … Japan, where:

Once an official campaign has started, candidates are barred from updating their home pages, launching or amending blogs—podcasts are allowed because the law applies only to text or images—posting political statements or sending text messages to mobile phones. Additional regulations prohibit donors from using credit cards online to support candidates, effectively preventing online fundraising.

But things are starting to change:

Politicians have begun discovering the power of YouTube

Posted in Online politics | 3 Comments
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