Tag Archives: economic policy

A Liberal Steady-State Economy? 

Our current economic models are not fit for purpose. They fail to tackle the social-ecological crisis. 

And people know this.

Since 2008, a pattern has emerged. From Brexit in 2016, to Boris’ victory in 2019, to Labour’s victory in 2024, the Greens and Reform’s ongoing political boom, all these political phenomena share one common thread. 

Frustration. Anger. Resentment towards the status quo.

And rightly so. 

Our political leaders, regardless of political party (excluding the Greens), all talk about “going for growth”. We blindly chase economic growth, but we never seem to ask the question: at what cost? Who does economic growth really serve? 

By following neoclassical economic theory, we create an economic system that can exist in a spectrum between two states: recession or growth. 

Our current economic system is designed so that when both extreme states occur, the most powerful benefit the most, and the poorest suffer the most whilst benefitting the least. 

We are sold the idea that anyone can invest in the stock market, invest successfully, and achieve monetary returns. But not everyone has the luxury to afford an investment portfolio, most people are barely scraping by. So when these companies grow, the returns mostly end up concentrated amongst those who have the largest and most diversified investment portfolios, disproportionately benefitting the richest and most powerful.

When there is a crash, we are told that “the big banks cannot fail”. Large corporations obfuscate by arguing they are the ‘engines’ of economic growth. Such power means they exert sizable influence over our political leaders, because they have the monetary power to  significantly influence a country’s economic outcomes. 

So we bail them out. More of our public money goes into private hands. 

What we are witnessing globally is a gradual, systemic transfer of wealth. Such an economic system is not inevitable. But when we choose to design our economies by following neoclassical, and more specifically neoliberal macroeconomic models, the system strongly reinforces the positions of the richest and most powerful. Such an economy denies the poorest and most vulnerable freedom, and is deeply illiberal.

It can be said that economic growth has taken people out of poverty. “There are millions who are no longer in poverty because of growth”, is a narrative frequently cheered by so-called “think tanks” such as the IEA. They would be right in some developing economies, but to what extent is this true in the UK

Certainly in our western, developed economies, there are many across the country who are yet to feel the benefits of economic growth. The Global Inequality Report 2026 paints a sobering picture of increasing global inequality. Trends clearly show increasing wealth inequality in the UK.

In neoclassical economic models, the Solow-Swan growth model shows how economies can theoretically deliver exponential economic growth. This is the dream scenario for our political leaders, because it means they can postpone making the much harder political choice of redistribution of wealth. 

However, the Solow-Swan model is incomplete. It does not account for the importance of exergy to growth, and largely omits the flows of material resources within an economy, which are subject to strict thermodynamic limits. Such a model suggests that economies can grow independently of material flows, with the economy being able to expand ex nihilo, which does not align with physical reality. 

Our economy is a physical, thermodynamic, non-equilibrium system that exists within the biosphere, transforming natural resources into useful products for human consumption. 

The steady-state economy offers a realistic and just alternative grounded in science. It does not reject markets, markets can allocate resources efficiently, albeit with some limitations. What the steady-state economy offers is stability. No booms, no busts. No “growth for growth’s sake”. Growth is only sought with evidence-based, scientific analysis to seek whether it is truly desirable.

We have clearly hit a stage where growth is no longer socially nor environmentally desirable. But we currently exist within an economic system in which growth is intrinsic to success. And this needs to change.

In order to reach a steady state economy, we require:

– The redistribution of wealth to the poorest in our society to have a socially just economy.
– A period of degrowth to have an economy within planetary limits.

Degrowth is a means to an end. It is not recession, nor is it austerity. Such analyses are based on the assumption that our economic system cannot be changed. That is not true. The need is clear, all we require is the political will. There are just and sensible policies which can be pursued to ensure that people’s social and material condition remains stable.

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Does post-growth economics belong in the Liberal Democrats?

Does post-growth economics belong in the Liberal Democrats? Questioning the principle of eternal economic growth is such a heresy to the orthodox economic order, that by most it is rejected outright. We live in a world so addicted to growth that envisioning a world that exists outside this paradigm is seen as almost impossible.

We are currently experiencing a social-ecological polycrisis: rising inequality, climate change, it is all driven by the economy transgressing several planetary boundaries. Green growthers respond to this by rightly identifying that green investment and a path to net zero is essential to tackling the climate crisis. They also correctly cite examples of countries such as the UK managing to relatively decouple GDP growth from carbon emissions, which is great.

However, GDP growth must not just be relatively decoupled but absolutely decoupled from environmental impact. Green growthers argue that green growth will provide the necessary technological innovations required for absolute decoupling to occur.

However, when you apply the laws of thermodynamics to analyse the relationship between our natural environment and the economy, a different picture emerges. We can consider earth to be a closed system for materials and an open system for energy because Earth receives solar energy. The second law of thermodynamics sets the physical limits for economic processes from physical work and production to the energy needed to use information (Landauer’s Principle).

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Equality, degrowth and survival

I am becoming increasingly concerned by the party’s continued stress on economic growth. This is in total contradiction to what is necessary on the environment. Of course, when pressed, this aim is hedged about as ‘green growth’, but increasingly this is detached from the direction needed to save the planet.

As a Quaker, one of my aims is to speak truth to power. When the very survival of our planet is threatened by widespread flouting and outright denial of the steps necessary to achieve a green economy, it is surely time that we, as radical politicians, start to tell the truth about the future direction of our country and our planet.

We can no longer promise never ending increases in living standards. So, all the pretence that somehow, we can improve life for those on lower incomes through growth must be discarded. The only way the poor can become less poor is through greater equality and this necessitates the rich having less. It is already obscene that a small number of people, both in the UK and worldwide, have income and wealth beyond the dreams of avarice and are able to use the power that it brings to pursue their goals at the expense of everyone else.

As a party, we pass policies which talk about equality, but our leaders continue to talk about growth, rather than facing up to the need to radically shift the split of income and wealth. It may not be a popular message and it will be roundly attacked in the media owned by the super-rich, but it’s the truth.

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More thoughts on GDP and growth

My thanks to Tony Vickers for usefully setting out his take on the subject of GDP in last Friday’s Lib Dem Voice, Global Capitalist Economics: time to unmask GDP?. Here in response is my own take, which isn’t far from his.

I see the fundamental aim of any progressive movement to be the enhancement of human well-being, including that of future generations. A progressive government needs to recognise four preconditions for sustainable and enhanced well-being: a supportive physical environment, such as a stable climate, clean water and fertile soils; a healthy economy free from such scourges as poverty, squalid …

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29 May 2025 – today’s press releases

  • Davey on tariffs: summon the US ambassador as Trump chaos “putting Liz Truss to shame”
  • “Scandal” as 400 military families forced to face emergency housing repairs over VE day anniversary
  • Greene comments on stalemate fears over Ardrossan harbour buyout plan
  • Fiscal forecasts expose SNP financial mismanagement coming home to roost
  • Lib Dems back Presiding Officer in Ross row
  • Cole-Hamilton calls for national RAAC fund

Davey on tariffs: summon the US ambassador as Trump chaos “putting Liz Truss to shame”

Responding to the US Court of International Trade ruling that blocks many of Trump’s tariffs, Liberal Democrat Leader Ed Davey said:

The Government must urgently summon the US ambassador to clarify what this court ruling means for Starmer’s recent deal with Donald Trump. The levels of chaos from Trump’s economic policy is putting Liz Truss to shame.

“Scandal” as 400 military families forced to face emergency housing repairs over VE day anniversary

New research obtained by the Liberal Democrats has revealed that 442 military families had to call for urgent repairs on their state-provided housing over the week of VE-day commemorations – with a massive 64,000 requests for urgent repairs clocking up since January 2024.

Parliamentary questions submitted by the Liberal Democrats have revealed that over 440 urgent repair requests were filed by service families in state-provided military homes over the VE-day week.

The party has condemned the Government’s “hypocrisy” as the statistics have come to light. They’ve said it’s “a scandal” that so many serving families had to deal with the fallout of poor accommodation, particularly during a week of celebration for the service of the UK’s Armed Forces personnel and veterans.

The investigation, led by Helen Maguire – the party’s defence spokesperson – also revealed that a massive 64,258 urgent repair requests had been filed by military families since January 2024.

The harsh winter months saw the highest number of callouts by families in military homes, with 5,921 urgent requests submitted in January 2024 and 5,546 in January 2025.

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29 November 2024 – today’s press releases

  • Bank of England: Ministers need to set out steps to Trump-proof economy
  • McArthur urges MPs to back assisted dying bill
  • McArthur expresses delight as UK Parliament backs Assisted Dying bill

Bank of England: Ministers need to set out steps to Trump-proof economy

Responding to the Bank of England’s fiscal stability report which warned of the potential impact of the impending Donald Trump Presidency on the economy, Liberal Democrat Treasury spokesperson Daisy Cooper MP said:

After years of Conservative economic vandalism our economy has seen sluggish growth and people have been hammered by spiralling mortgage rates.

The incoming Trump administration could cause yet more damage and the new government needs to urgently act to prepare our economy to prevent this.

Ministers need to set out the steps they are taking to Trump-proof our economy and ensure that people will not be hit with another round of financial hardship.

McArthur urges MPs to back assisted dying bill

Speaking ahead of the debate and vote on Kim Leadbeater’s assisted dying bill in the UK Parliament, Scottish Liberal Democrat MSP Liam McArthur has urged MPs to back the bill in the first debate and vote on end-of-life choices in the UK Parliament since 2015.

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What should the Liberal Democrats do now?

We need to be careful with our responses to the government’s economic policy. We had been calling for a freeze of the energy price cap, and wanted it to be at the April level of £1,971. The government has frozen it at £2,500 a year, saying this will cost £31 bn, up to April 2023. They also responded to widespread demand to provide similar support for businesses at the cost of £29 bn for the six months they are providing it.

So we are broadly in favour of these policies, as with the government’s reversal of the National Insurance increase, which costs £16.96 bn over a full year.

Our own policy is to cut VAT by 2.5% for a year, which will cost £18.75 bn more. We have said that this cut would increase economic growth, perhaps in the region of 0.4%.

We have to consider priorities now, and we believe our first aim must be to protect the poor and campaign against a further rise in poverty. We wish to spend about £7.5 bn in a full year restoring the £20 a week uplift to Universal Credit and extending it to all legacy benefits. Unlike the Labour Party we do not support the proposed one pence cut in the basic rate of income tax, since we are still talking about the need actually to increase the rate by a further penny to pay for social care.

In paying for its proposed new taxes, expected to cost about £43 bn more, the new government is contemplating savings in welfare benefits and in local government essential services, all of which we need to resolutely oppose. We should point out that if tax cuts are paid for with public expenditure cuts there can be no increase in economic growth. Our own proposals to spend around £40 bn on capital spending on green growth and growing our regions outside London and the south-east are far more likely to promote economic growth.

The Tory financial mismanagement which is leading to thousands of home-owners now facing the prospect of having to pay hundreds of pounds more in interest payments on their mortgages means that there will be much discontent among the population at large, already struggling with the cost of living increases including the energy costs which were already greater than a year ago. But protecting the poorest may not seem a priority, if people also dwell on the massively increased borrowing costs the government is now incurring to pay for their tax cuts, although defending education, health care and social care spending remains popular, and wage claims because of high inflation often seem not unacceptable.

Posted in Op-eds | 77 Comments

23 July 2020 – the overnight press release

Lack of economic planning for a pandemic highlights Government failures

Responding to a Public Accounts Committee report published today that finds an “astonishing” failure on the part of the Government to prepare for the economic impact of a pandemic, Acting Leader of the Liberal Democrats Ed Davey said:

Everyone agrees that COVID-19 is an unprecedented challenge, but the Government’s failure to ensure there was a contingency plan at the ready has left thousands of families with no help whatsoever, and thousands of businesses making redundancies or closing down.

Considering that pandemics are one of the key risks any Government plans for, if

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28 November 2019 – today’s press releases (part 1)

It’s been a very busy day today, so these are split into two parts…

  • Leaked documents reveal Trump trade deal threat to UK farming
  • Lib Dems: NHS staff shortages worsen under Tories
  • Lib Dems: neither the Tories or Labour have a credible plan for the economy
  • Lib Dems would halt ‘Brexodus’

Leaked documents reveal Trump trade deal threat to UK farming

Leaked documents from US-UK trade deal talks reveal the threat posed to British farmers from a trade deal with Donald Trump, the Liberal Democrats have warned.

The detailed documents reveal years of talks between UK and US trade negotiators, with American officials pushing to allow …

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A Fairer Share for All Working Group: The road to a liberal Britain

I joined the Liberal Democrats in November to help to create a more liberal United Kingdom. At a time when protectionism and populism are on the rise, not just in the UK but around the globe, it is crucial that we have liberal answers to the difficult questions.

Despite being 10 years on, we are still hungover from the financial crisis. There has been a major squeeze on incomes, structural changes that have damaged towns and the generational divide has grown.

Because of this, I decided to apply to join the A Fairer Share for All working group. Even though populism is …

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Vince’s IPPR speech

Lib Dem leader Vince Cable MP was invited by the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) Commission on Economic Justice to speak this morning. You can watch the speech here, with Vince’s bit from 10:38 in.

The entire speech is a long-read for lunchtime, from the end of this blog, but here is an overview of what Vince is calling for when it comes to outsourcing public services, which has come under fire in recent months following the collapse of Carillion and the financial woes of Capita.

Vince’s five-point plan calls …

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Liberals and Neo-Liberals

Professor David Howarth, formerly LibDem MP for Cambridge, contributes to the new Social Liberal Forum book with a powerful, closely argued essay on Liberal economics. This an extract:

Here is a puzzle: if JS Mill, JM Keynes and James Meade were all Liberals and economists, what is a ‘neo-liberal’ economist? One might have thought that it would be someone who updated their thought to consider new facts and new problems.

In a highly successful example of propaganda and disinformation, ‘neoliberal’ has come to mean the doctrines of Friedrich Hayek or Milton Friedman. But those doctrines are anything but ‘neo’. They hark back to the era before Mill. We need to rectify names. Instead of ‘neo-liberals’ the followers of Hayek and Friedman might be called ‘paleo-partial liberals’.

The next step is to reclaim the Liberal tradition. That was the avowed aim of the editors of the Orange Book, but what some of them seemed to mean was not updating Mill, Keynes and Meade but abandoning them in favour of paleo-partial liberalism. Admittedly the diagnosis was not entirely wrong. The Liberal Democrats, as a political party, had wandered a long way from the Liberal tradition and had succumbed to various forms of conventional wisdom.

But the most distinctive feature of Liberal policy was its stance on corporate governance. From Mill onwards, through the Yellow Book to support for codetermination, Liberals argued for a different way of organising firms, not as hierarchical structures dominated by the owners of capital but as partnerships between labour and capital, incorporating democratic representation. James Meade provided a continuation and deepening of this tradition that should have formed the basis of the merged party’s position.

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I disagree with Jeremy

Jeremy Corbyn photo by lewishamdreamer1Jeremy Corbyn strikes me as someone who is still fighting all the battles of the 1980s and has not thought much about anything since.

Re-open the coal mines! Of course – they were closed by the Tories, so they must reopen. But ban fracking – because that is getting carbon-based fuel out of the ground, which is wrong. Now I respect people who want a total ban on fracking out of concern for the local environment, or to keep the carbon in the ground. I happen to accept the evidence that it can be done safely, and that the gas has an important role in replacing dirtier coal, running standby plant for wind turbines and weakening Putin’s influence in the world.

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Opinion: Half an hour that changed the future

Yesterday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced it would reduce or ‘taper’ its level of QE acquisitions from $85 billion a month to $75 billion. In the physical world it was not a touch on the break so much as a slight easing of pressure on the accelerator.

Back in September the FOMC had announced it thought the time for ‘tapering’ was at hand. Long term interest rates (a window on future expectation for growth and inflation) veered up and down as markets tried to gauge the warring claims of the liquidity, income and expectation effects. No clarity: US stock …

Posted in Op-eds | 23 Comments

Opinion: Political deference to today’s orthodoxy is the UK’s economic problem

All three main political parties in the UK today broadly accept the Bank of England’s (BoE’s) programme of buying the paper ‘assets’ of banks with printed money – worthless and valuable alike (quantitative easing – QE). There are few dissenters, but I am one of them.

My dissenting post-2008 remedy was a managed partial default/bankruptcy of the UK’s insolvent banks with a quick operational reboot, on the grounds that it would be cheaper than a printed-money ‘bankers subsidy’. The quantity of intricately interwoven bad assets was unknown, and thus the UK government was subsidising a pig-in-a-poke, I believed.

But hey ho we …

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The Autumn Statement and the unreal economic debate in which everyone pretends the Coalition stuck to ‘Plan A’

It’s autumn statement day. George Osborne will stand at the despatch box of the House of Commons this afternoon and present his pre-budget report. The Guardian’s Martin Kettle sums up what it’s all about:

For the Conservatives, today is about redefining themselves – in the face of a run of seriously disappointing polls – as the party that feels the voters’ pain over energy prices, house price inflation, wind farms or payday loans – while still, boosted by yesterday’s strong economic surveys and the possible return of the UK’s AAA rating, managing a recovering economy more soundly than Labour. For

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What Japan did while we were sleeping

"2 x inflation in 2 years, 2 x monetary base, 2 x amount bonds purchased" “2 x inflation in 2 years, 2 x monetary base, 2 x amount bonds purchased”The overnight news yesterday from the Bank of Japan spelt out its serious intent to double the monetary base – the type of monetary easing, a l’outrance, that I have been arguing for at LDV, and elsewhere, for a number of years now.

The announcement followed the declaration back in November by the then leader of Japan’s opposition that when elected he …

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No braking at Gambon – a monetary policy guide for petrolheads

If you had to choose a person from the following list, and only this list, to be Chancellor of the Exchequer, would you choose James May, Jeremy Clarkson or Richard Hammond? Tough choice, but go on: indulge me!

The last time I wrote here, I predicted that the Quad had reached a turning point on monetary policy. I did this not on the evidence of Vince Cable’s New Statesman article, but on a report in the Financial Times that Osborne was set to change the regime imposed on the Bank of England.

Well, …

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Opinion: the UK has many economic lessons to learn from Ireland

When various commentators and critics of the coalition’s economic policy cast around for alternative solutions, not many look to Ireland for a model to follow, but perhaps they should.

My native country’s economy is in the sort of doldrums which make the current UK growth and employment rate look utopian, but the economy formerly known as the ‘Celtic Tiger’ is healing itself and there are many lessons for UK policy makers to learn. This year growth is forecast to be 1.8%, double what the UK can expect to achieve, while the country was recently able to return to the bond markets …

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Opinion: Are we valuing the right kind of growth?

Our economic system is built around the indicator of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It measures how much we have produced as a country over a period of time. It does this by adding together the market value of what we have produced. As a result, an increase in the market value of what we have produced signifies that our economy is growing. But should it?

In the grand scheme of human history, GDP is relatively new. It was created to allow the US to better understand how to develop

Posted in Op-eds | 15 Comments

Opinion: The Conflicts of Economic Policy

Nick Clegg’s conference speech committed Lib Dems to manage debt out of the economy and implement a fair tax regime. But the objectives of economic policy often conflict with each other.

Let’s take it that there are three objectives for current economic policy:

  1. to reduce deficit and the debt it accumulates
  2. to inject demand into the economy
  3. to have a fair tax system

In the following table, I’ve had a try at evaluating recent and proposed economic policies against these objectives.

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