Our report on last week’s by-elections is a little later than usual. There were 15 principal authority by-elections with several counting on the Friday.

These 15 also included three countermanded elections, delayed from the local elections following the death of a candidate.

Because of the quantity of contests, we’re going to group several races together and provide an overall analysis. 

By-elections in Wales 

Half of the by-elections last week took place in Wales. This is because of rules in the Senedd which don’t allow representatives to be both an Assembly Member and a local councillor. 

Importantly, local elections were last contested in Wales back in 2022 – at a time when Reform UK were only fielding candidates in 3% of races, and the Green Party in just over half.

Three races took place in Wrexham which were all Plaid Cymru defences. They held onto all three, despite collapsing vote shares in Grosvenor and Queensway as Reform UK swept into second in all three races. The Liberal Democrats stood paper candidates in two out of three races in Wrexham. 

Wrexham CBC, Queensway

PC: 94 (41%, -34%)
RFM: 86 (37%, new)
LAB: 37 (16%, -6%)
GRN: 11 (5%, new)
CON: 2 (1%, -2%)

Plaid Cymru HOLD

Wrexham UA, Grosvenor

PC – 208, 43.5% (-19.8 )
RFM– 105, 22.0% (new)
LAB – 98, 20.5% (-5.5)
IND – 22, 4.6% (new)
YRP – 20, 4.2% (new)
CON – 12, 2.5% (-8.1)
GRN – 11, 2.3% (new)
LDM Gerald Craddock – 2, 0.4% (new)

Plaid Cymru HOLD

Wrexham UA, Acton & Maesydre

PC: 341, 38.8 % (+1.8 )
RFM: 300, 34.1% (new)
LAB: 98, 11.1% (-14.4)
IND: 72, 8.2% (new)
CON: 52, 5.9% (-6.4)
LDM: Beatrice Williams, 8 , 0.9% (new)
GRN: 8, 0.9% (-2.4)

Plaid Cymru HOLD

Two races took place in Conwy in the far north of Wales. The Conservatives were defending  both seats. Reform UK stood for the first time and won both seats. The Liberal Democrats fell back in the Tudno division, but David Coffin in Gogarth Mostyn managed to take 12.1% of votes from a standing start. Interestingly, Plaid Cymru contested neither of these seats. 

Conwy UA – Tudno

RFM – 357, 43.4% (new)
CON – 180, 21.9% (- 4.0)
LAB – 171, 20.8% (-15.3)
GRN – 71, 8.6% (new)
LDM James Pethica – 43, 5.2% (-13.8)

Reform UK GAIN from Conservative

Conwy UA – Gogarth Mostyn

RFM – 496, 33.8% (new)
CON – 406, 27.7% (-6.2)
LAB – 368, 26.3% (-9.7)
LDM David Coffin – 178, 12.1% (new)

Reform UK GAIN from Conservative

In Swansea, two by-elections took place: a Labour defence in Morriston and a Conservative defence in the division of Mumbles. In Morriston, Labour managed to hold on by 78 votes, despite a collapse in their vote share as Reform, Plaid Cymru and the Green Party all stood for the first time. This also contributed to a fall in the Lib Dem vote share. Despite a small decrease in vote share, the Conservatives won in Mumbles extremely comfortably. 

By-elections in Essex 

Two county level by-elections took place in Essex, while a third race happened in the Essex District Council of Rochford. 

There was one Liberal Democrat defence in Chelmsford Springfield, a countermanded election triggered by the sad passing of the Liberal Democrat group leader Cllr Michael Mackrory during the campaign period. A second Reform UK defence took place in Rayleigh West after the Reform UK councillor resigned following allegations of racist social media posts.

The broader context of the county-level elections was the landslide victory of Reform UK in the delayed county elections in Essex, which hadn’t taken place since 2021, when the Conservatives were at the peak of their popularity, and Reform contested just over 5% of seats nationally. 

We held onto Chelmsford Springfield, increasing our vote share in the process to a huge 55%. Congratulations to Cllr Richard Lee, who swept up double the votes of second-placed Reform UK. The Conservatives, typically the opposition in this division slid back to less than a fifth of the vote. 

In Rayleigh West, Reform UK lost the seat to the Conservative candidate. We held onto second place, slightly increasing the vote, positioning us well to challenge the Conservatives next time – sitting only 5% behind them. 

Essex CC – Chelmsford Springfield

LDM Richard Lee – 3203, 54.6% (+8.6)
RFM – 1616, 27.5% (+27.5)
CON – 723, 12.3% (-25.1)
GRN – 216, 3.7% (-2.3)
LAB – 110, 1.9% (-7.3)

Lib Dem HOLD
Turnout: 39.3%

Essex CC – Rayleigh West

CON – 1515, 35.4% (+17.5)
LDM James Newport – 1262, 29.5% (+2.9)
RFM – 1046, 24.4% (-15.3)
GRN – 225, 5.3% (-0.8)
IND – 117, 2.7% (new)
LAB – 85, 2.0% (-1.9)
IND – 35, 0.8% (new)

Conservative GAIN from Reform UK
Turnout: 32%

The Rochford by-election was called following the resignation of the same county councillor which triggered the Rayleigh West election. The result was also the same. With the Conservatives winning a massive 56% of the vote to take the seat from Reform UK – a gain of almost 40%. The Lib Dems fell back slightly, but remain ahead of Labour and the Green Party in third. 

Rochford DC – Sweyne Park & Grange 

CON – 1049, 56.1% (+39.3)
RFM– 464, 24.8% (-14.9)
LDM Dawn Balding – 247, 13.2% (-3.3)
GRN – 78, 4.2% (-3.9)
LAB – 31, 1.7% (-1.9)

Conservative GAIN from Reform UK

Turnout: 37%

By-elections in the north 

Two countermanded by-elections took place in Bury and Bradford. 

The Bury ward of Moorside was a Labour defence. Despite Reform UK, the Workers Party and the Green Party all standing for the first time and taking over 50% of the vote between them, Labour held on, only dropping a few percentage points. The Conservatives and Independent were the biggest losers while the Liberal Democrats failed to stand a candidate. 

Bradford’s countermanded by-election took place following the very sad death of Jeannette Sunderland, a long-time Lib Dem councillor and honorary ALDC vice-president. 

Despite a strong challenge from Reform UK, standing for the first time and picking up 31% of the vote, the Liberal Democrats managed to hold onto all three seats with over half of the vote.

Bury MBC, Moorside

LAB: 1308 (39.4%, -4.5%)
RFM: 1030 (31.1%, new)
WP: 609 (18.4%, new)
GRN: 200 (6.0%, new)
CON: 108 (3.3%, -21.5%)
IND: 61 (1.8%, -29.5%)

Labour HOLD
Turnout: 39%

Bradford DC – Idle & Thackley

LDM* – 8244, 55% (-5)
RFM – 4683, 31% (+31)
GRN – 670, 5% (+0)
LAB – 589, 5% (-16)
CON – 464, 4% (-2)

Lib Dem HOLD x3

*Cllr Rachel Sunderland, Cllr Alun Griffiths & Cllr Aislin Naylor

By-elections in London and Hampshire 

Last Thursday, London had a countermanded election in Hillingdon and a by-election in Lewisham. 

In Hillingdon West, the Conservatives successfully held onto both seats with both their winning candidates getting more than double the vote of the third-placed Labour candidate. Reform UK stood for the first time taking votes from both Labour and the Conservatives. Meanwhile the Lib Dems also stood paper candidates for the first time. 

Meanwhile the Lewisham contest was called because one of the three successful Green Party candidates in May’s election was actually ineligible to stand. After convincingly winning all three seats from Labour just weeks before, Labour came within just 10 votes of winning it back. 

Hillingdon LBC – Hillingdon West

CON: 45.1% (-10.0)
LAB: 19.6% (-14.9)
RFM: 18.0% (New)
GRN: 14.7% (+4.3)
LDM Muhammad Iqbal & Gautam Sabarwal: 2.6% (New)

Conservative HOLD x2
Turnout: 34%

Lewisham LBC – Crofton Park

GRN -1340, 44.9% (-8.1)
LAB 1330, 44.5% (+13.1)
RFM – 127, 4.3% (-1.0)
LDM Richard Elliott – 106, 3.5% (-2.0)
CON – 73, 2.4% (-2.5)
IND – 10, 0.3% (+0.0)

Green Party HOLD

Last but not least, on the south coast in New Forest, the Conservatives were defending the Bransgore, Burley, Sopley & Ringwood East division. Despite losing 20% of the vote, they comfortably beat the Green Party in second place. Although finishing fourth, ahead of Labour, Hannah Phillips, the Liberal Democrat candidate managed to improve our vote share. 

CON – 696, 39.3% (-20.7)
GRN – 459, 25.9% (+7.0)
RFM- 452, 25.5% (+10.1)
LDM Hannah Phillips – 126, 7.1% (+4.0)
LAB – 38, 2.1% (-0.4)

Conservative HOLD
Turnout: 32.2%

Thank you to all of our candidates, agents, and campaign teams. A full summary of these results, and all other principal council by-elections, can be found on the ALDC by-elections page here.

* Joe Nutt is a Campaigns and Communications Officer for ALDC