Author Archives: Joe Nutt

Sixteen principal authority by-elections took place across England, Wales and Scotland last week, with two taking place on Tuesday and 14 on Thursday. 

The Liberal Democrats were the main defenders this week, attempting to hold onto five seats. The Green Party and Plaid Cymru were defending three each, with Labour and the Independents defending two apiece, and Reform UK on just one this week. 

Triple race in Haslemere

Both of Tuesday’s principal authority by-elections were triggered by the sad passing of Liberal Democrat Cllr John Robini, who as well as sitting on both Waverley Borough Council and Surrey County Council, was also a town councillor in Haslemere. The Liberal Democrats won all three seats in the ensuing by-elections. 

An important side note on the Borough and County level races. Because of LGR, both Waverley and Surrey will cease to exist next year, with the unitary authority of West Surrey taking their place. Oli Leach, who stood in the Borough by-election, and Terry Weldon, who stood in the County by-election, both won election to the Haslemere ward on the new authority in the May 2026 local elections.

Here’s a closer look at the District and County level races. 

Waverley BC, Haslemere West 

In 2023, the Liberal Democrats took control of Waverley for the first time since 2007, with it being solid blue territory in the intervening years. 

The two-member ward of Haslemere West was only created at the last set of elections in 2023, where the Liberal Democrats won over 60% of the vote against the Conservatives and Labour. This time Labour did not stand a candidate, but the Green Party and Reform UK did this time. We stomped to victory with well over half of the vote. 

Lib Dem: 551 (58.6%, -5.4%)
Green Party: 164 (17.4%, new)
Conservative: 141 (15%, -7%)
Reform UK: 84 (8.9%, new)

Liberal Democrat HOLD

Surrey CC, Haslemere

The Conservatives have run Surrey County Council for decades, with a strong Lib Dem performance in 1993 the only time they have run the council without a majority. The last election in 2021 was at the peak of the Conservative party’s popularity under Boris Johnson. 

In the shadow elections for West Surrey this May though, the Liberal Democrats won majority control. 

The Haslemere seat has had a chaotic recent history: narrowly won by an Independent against the Conservatives in 2013. The seat turned blue in 2017 before a big swing to the Liberal Democrats meant we won it in 2021. The Conservatives lost even more ground this time as Reform UK and the Green Party also stood candidates. 

Lib Dem (Terry Weldon): 1,181 (47.8%, -2.2%)
Conservative: 797 (32.3%, -10.7%)
Green Party: 280 (11.3%, new)
Reform UK: 213 (8.6%, new)

Liberal Democrat HOLD

No Liberal Democrat candidates 

To start the reporting on Thursday’s races, let’s briefly analyse the two races where a Lib Dem candidate was not on the ballot paper.

South Lanarkshire, Larkhall 

Only one race in Scotland this week in South Lanarkshire caused by the sad passing of the incumbent Labour councillor. South Lanarkshire last went to the polls in 2022. Negotiations following that set of elections saw a Labour/Lib Dem minority administration come in. 

At the last election in Larkhall, the Liberal Democrats did stand a candidate who was knocked out in the sixth round of voting. Two seats were taken by Labour, and one apiece for the SNP and Conservatives. 

This time around, Reform UK managed to overcome the SNP on the fourth round of voting. Below are just the first preferences. 

Reform UK: 1150 (35.2%, new)
SNP: 975 (29.9%, +1%)
Labour: 799 (24.5%, -8.5%)
Conservative: 342 (10.5%, -14%)

Reform UK GAIN from Labour

Flintshire, Connoh’s Quay Central

At the last set of elections in Flintshire, only Independent and Labour candidates stood in the ward of Connah’s Quay Central, with both Independents prevailing by a large margin. While the Liberal Democrats did not stand a candidate in this by-election, all other major parties in Wales did, alongside a couple of Independents in this crowded field. Reform UK ultimately won by a big margin.

Reform UK: 256 (48.1%, new)
Labour: 101 (19%, -15.1%)
Plaid Cymru: 71 (13.3%, new)
Independent: 59 (11.1%, new)
Conservative: 21 (4%, new)
Independent: 13 (2.4%, new)
Green Party: 11 (2.1%, new)

Reform UK GAIN from Independent

More elections in Wales

The long running series of Welsh by-elections – caused by new Senedd members not legally being able to hold onto their council seats – sees another seven races take place this week. 

Pembrokeshire, Pembroke Dock Market

The last election in Pembrokeshire saw the Pembroke Dock Market ward being taken by an Independent in an uncontested election, who sadly passed away in April. This time, three Independents were joined by candidates from the Conservatives, Plaid Cymru, Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats. 

Pembrokeshire has a strong tradition of electing Independents, with over half the seats being taken by independent candidates in 2022. At this by-election though, the Conservatives scored a somewhat surprising win.  Thanks to Lee Herring for offering a Lib Dem choice. 

Conservative: 143 (36%, new)
Independent: 100 (25.2%, new)
Plaid Cymru: 79 (19.9%, new)
Reform UK: 48 (12.1%, new)
Independent: 11 (2.8%, new)
Lib Dem: 9 (2.3%, new)
Independent: 7 (1.8%, new)

Conservative GAIN from Independent

Flintshire, Argoed & New Brighton

The second race in Flintshire was the only Liberal Democrat defence in Wales this week in the ward of Argoed & New Brighton, where two of our four councillors on Flintshire Council come from. The race was triggered by the sad passing of Hilary McGuill. 

Last time both Lib Dems finished above individual Labour, Plaid Cymru, Independent and Green candidates. Both right-wing parties entered the race this time, but the Liberal Democrats fended off astrong Reform UK challenge to beat out every major party in Wales, with an increased share of the vote! Fantastic win from Cllr Faron Hadfield-Jones.

Lib Dem: 614 (39.8%, +3.8%)
Reform UK: 490 (31.7%, new)
Plaid Cymru: 191 (12.4% , – 2.2%)
Conservative: 113 (7.3%, new)
Labour: 113 (7.3%, -17.3%)
Green Party: 23 (1.5%, -8.8%)

Liberal Democrat HOLD

Vale of Glamorgan, Baruc 

In the Vale of Glamorgan, Plaid Cymru were looking to hold onto one of the three seats in Baruc. In 2022, they won all three seats on offer, with their Labour, Conservative and Green Party competitors running quite a close contest to be runners-up. 

This time, Reform UK joined the contest and finished in second place, though far behind an insurgent Plaid Cymru who increased their majority, mirroring a strong performance in this part of Wales in the 2026 Senedd elections. Thank you to Gabriela Ferguson for getting the Lib Dems on the ballot this time. 

Plaid Cymru: 856 (47.7%, +11.2%)
Reform UK: 429 (23.9%, new)
Conservative: 219 (12.2%, -8.2%)
Labour: 179 (10%, -15%)
Green Party: 90 (5%, -13.1%)
Lib Dem: 23 (1.3%, new)

Plaid Cymru HOLD

Llanrug, Gwynedd

Plaid Cymru’s had a reversal of fortunes in the Gwynedd seat of Llanrug, where they lost to an Independent. Gwynedd is another county with a strong Independent presence, finishing second in total number of councillors to Plaid in their stronghold. 

In 2022, Plaid Cymru won an uncontested election in Llanrug, along with many others throughout the county. At this by-election, the Independent and Plaid Cymru swallowed 95% of the vote share. Thank you to Linda Park for standing. 

Independent: 394 (57.4%, new)
Plaid Cymru: 262 (38.2%, -61.8%)
Reform UK: 17 (2.5%, new)
Conservative: 6 (0.9%, new)
Independent: 4 (0.6%, new)
Lib Dem (Linda Park) 3 (0.4%, new)

Independent GAIN from Plaid Cymru

Neath Port Talbot, Trebanos 

Only Plaid Cymru and Labour stood at the 2022 election in Trebanos. This time, it was contested by all six major parties in Wales. Unlike other contests last week in Wales where we ran paper candidates, we did fight a good campaign here with an excellent candidate in Hayley Davies. 

Plaid Cymru capitalised on their history here to pull off a big win. Of the other parties, we finished in third, just 11 votes behind Reform UK. This sets us up well to challenge them in next year’s local elections. 

Plaid Cymru: 223 (51.1%, -18.3%)
Reform UK: 88 (20.2%, new)
Lib Dem : 77 (17.7%, new)
Labour: 37 (8.5%, -22.1%)
Conservative: 7 (1.6%, new)
Green Party: 4 (0.9%, new)

Plaid Cymru HOLD

Splott, Cardiff

Finally, we go to the Welsh capital to wrap up the Welsh segment of this report. The election was triggered by the former Labour leader of Cardiff Council getting elected to the Senedd. Splott has been dominated by huge Labour majorities since 2012. 

The last time the ward was competitive was back in 2008 when the Liberal Democrats ran the council and had one of the three seats in Splott. 

In 2022, we finished behind Labour, a Green Party-Plaid Cymru unity team and the Conservatives. This time it was a Green Party challenger (no Plaid Cymru candidate) who came fairly close to beating Labour. Thank you to Rhys Husband for flying the Lib Dem flag here.

Labour: 765 (40.3%, +6.3%)
Green Party: 678 (35.7%, +18.4%)
Reform UK: 286 (15.1%, +2.1%)
Lib Dem: 114 (6%, -8%)
Conservative: 54 (2.8%, -0.1%)

Labour HOLD

Green Party Defences in London