There was only one principal council by-election this week. The count took place on Friday morning, so the result didn’t filter through until later on Friday afternoon.
Kent County Council, Cliftonville
The Green Party has taken the seat of Cliftonville in Kent from Reform UK. This result was perhaps inevitable given the turmoil surrounding the previous holder; having only won the seat last year amidst a wave of Reform gains from the Conservatives, the incumbent councillor was suspended by Reform following a guilty plea in February regarding a domestic incident, which ultimately triggered this by-election.
Beyond the individual conduct of the former councillor, the wider Reform administration in Kent is increasingly defined by instability. The local leadership has been plagued by internal infighting with leaked footage online showing disputes between backbenchers and the leadership. This was followed by a series of defections to Rupert Lowe’s splinter group, Restore UK. They’ve also had to U-turn on their flagship pledge to cut council tax earlier this year.
Local commentators framed this contest as a referendum on Reform’s chaotic performance. In this instance, the Green Party successfully consolidated the anti-Reform vote to deliver that message, with the Liberal Democrats starting from an extremely low base in this particular ward.
A big thank you to Mo Shafaei and the team for their hard work in ensuring there was a Liberal Democrat choice on the ballot.
Green Party: 2,068, 38.8% (+26.7)
Reform UK: 1,767, 33.1% (-7.0)
Conservatives: 811, 15.2% (-4.5)
Labour: 557, 10.4% (-11.6)
Independents: 68, 1.3% (New)
Liberal Democrats: 63, 1.2%(-1.9)
Green Party GAIN from Reform
Turnout: 32%
A full summary of the results, and all other principal council by-elections, can be found on the ALDC by-elections page here.
* Joe Nutt is a Campaigns and Communications Officer for ALDC
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6 Comments
I often use this space to look sideways at The Opinion Polls. The exciting news this Week is a Poll in which Reform lost their lead, for the 1st time in 10 Months. According to Lord Ashcroft’s company, Reform, The Greens & The Conservatives were equal on 21% each.
If there’s been any coverage of this in the media I haven’t seen it.
Not sure about the excitement Paul. The forthcoming local elections & the Scottish and Welsh assemblies up for grabs will be a far better indicator. The Conservative Lord Ashcroft poll on the eve of the 2017 GE had Teresa May’s Governing party winning by a margin of 66 seats !
In spite of this week’s loss Reform’s performance in local elections shows no decline. Based on the last fifty by-elections Reform are currently on 28.81% – their highest level ever.
Again, I recognise a pattern emerging which is worth repeating in the hope that legacy parties begin to see it. The results here show that the 1st and 2nd places were taken by the Extreme Left, and the Extreme Right. Parties that try to straddle the voter diaspora whilst keeping one foot in the centre are barely registering. This is a pattern which will endure. I see two warring sides building up an acrimonious head of steam, for the next G E “conflict”. Broadly, I see a far Left with, open borders, loose drug policy, an acceptance of more Sharia culture, and a light national defence policy. The other choice will be a far Right with a generic “we want our country back” philosophy. Centre-ism will seem quaint at best, or lose its deposit at worst. I fully accept that this message is not easy to assimilate, but I can only relay what I unfortunately see ahead of us.
Reform are widely expected to get a lot of new Councillors in May but that doesn’t alter their long-term decline, even Next Year will look very different & by 2029 they will be irrelevant.
That is unalloyed Good News but it does also mean Conservative recovery & probably a few less MPs for us.
Perhaps the most important implication is that a “Hung” Parliament is nearly inevitable so it will be back to Coalition for us.
Paul ; With that forthcoming irrelevancy in 2029. Do you think that Reform will be able to hold onto it’s current parliamentary seats.