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Our report on last week’s by-elections is a little later than usual. There were 15 principal authority by-elections with several counting on the Friday.

These 15 also included three countermanded elections, delayed from the local elections following the death of a candidate.

Because of the quantity of contests, we’re going to group several races together and provide an overall analysis. 

By-elections in Wales 

Half of the by-elections last week took place in Wales. This is because of rules in the Senedd which don’t allow representatives to be both an Assembly Member and a local councillor. 

Importantly, local elections were last contested in Wales back in 2022 – at a time when Reform UK were only fielding candidates in 3% of races, and the Green Party in just over half.

Three races took place in Wrexham which were all Plaid Cymru defences. They held onto all three, despite collapsing vote shares in Grosvenor and Queensway as Reform UK swept into second in all three races. The Liberal Democrats stood paper candidates in two out of three races in Wrexham. 

Wrexham CBC, Queensway

PC: 94 (41%, -34%)
RFM: 86 (37%, new)
LAB: 37 (16%, -6%)
GRN: 11 (5%, new)
CON: 2 (1%, -2%)

Plaid Cymru HOLD

Wrexham UA, Grosvenor

PC – 208, 43.5% (-19.8 )
RFM– 105, 22.0% (new)
LAB – 98, 20.5% (-5.5)
IND – 22, 4.6% (new)
YRP – 20, 4.2% (new)
CON – 12, 2.5% (-8.1)
GRN – 11, 2.3% (new)
LDM Gerald Craddock – 2, 0.4% (new)

Plaid Cymru HOLD

Wrexham UA, Acton & Maesydre

PC: 341, 38.8 % (+1.8 )
RFM: 300, 34.1% (new)
LAB: 98, 11.1% (-14.4)
IND: 72, 8.2% (new)
CON: 52, 5.9% (-6.4)
LDM: Beatrice Williams, 8 , 0.9% (new)
GRN: 8, 0.9% (-2.4)

Plaid Cymru HOLD

Two races took place in Conwy in the far north of Wales. The Conservatives were defending  both seats. Reform UK stood for the first time and won both seats. The Liberal Democrats fell back in the Tudno division, but David Coffin in Gogarth Mostyn managed to take 12.1% of votes from a standing start. Interestingly, Plaid Cymru contested neither of these seats. 

Conwy UA – Tudno

RFM – 357, 43.4% (new)
CON – 180, 21.9% (- 4.0)
LAB – 171, 20.8% (-15.3)
GRN – 71, 8.6% (new)
LDM James Pethica – 43, 5.2% (-13.8)

Reform UK GAIN from Conservative

Conwy UA – Gogarth Mostyn

RFM – 496, 33.8% (new)
CON – 406, 27.7% (-6.2)
LAB – 368, 26.3% (-9.7)
LDM David Coffin – 178, 12.1% (new)

Reform UK GAIN from Conservative

In Swansea, two by-elections took place: a Labour defence in Morriston and a Conservative defence in the division of Mumbles. In Morriston, Labour managed to hold on by 78 votes, despite a collapse in their vote share as Reform, Plaid Cymru and the Green Party all stood for the first time. This also contributed to a fall in the Lib Dem vote share. Despite a small decrease in vote share, the Conservatives won in Mumbles extremely comfortably. 

By-elections in Essex 

Two county level by-elections took place in Essex, while a third race happened in the Essex District Council of Rochford. 

There was one Liberal Democrat defence in Chelmsford Springfield, a countermanded election triggered by the sad passing of the Liberal Democrat group leader Cllr Michael Mackrory during the campaign period. A second Reform UK defence took place in Rayleigh West after the Reform UK councillor resigned following allegations of racist social media posts.

The broader context of the county-level elections was the landslide victory of Reform UK in the delayed county elections in Essex, which hadn’t taken place since 2021, when the Conservatives were at the peak of their popularity, and Reform contested just over 5% of seats nationally. 

We held onto Chelmsford Springfield, increasing our vote share in the process to a huge 55%. Congratulations to Cllr Richard Lee, who swept up double the votes of second-placed Reform UK. The Conservatives, typically the opposition in this division slid back to less than a fifth of the vote. 

In Rayleigh West, Reform UK lost the seat to the Conservative candidate. We held onto second place, slightly increasing the vote, positioning us well to challenge the Conservatives next time – sitting only 5% behind them.