This week saw ten local by-elections across the country, with there being a Liberal Democrat candidate in all of these.
We start in Preston, where a close-fought contest emerged between us and Reform UK. We were able to gain this seat from Labour, whose vote share collapsed by over half. Congratulations to Councillor Ronan Hodgson and the local Liberal Democrat team for winning this seat off Labour!
Preston City Council, Ashton
Liberal Democrats (Ronan Hodgson): 659 (35.5%, +14.0)
Reform UK: 548 (29.5%, New)
Labour: 429 (23.1%, -35.7)
Independent (Cowell): 101 (5.4%, New)
Conservative: 61 (3.3%, -16.4)
Independent (Bailey): 60 (3.2%, New)
Liberal Democrats GAIN from Labour
Turnout: 28.32%
In Staines, congratulations are also due to Councillor Laura Barker and the local team, who won in a ward we had not previously stood a candidate in. Meanwhile, the defending Greens collapsed, finishing in fifth place.
Spelthorne Borough Council, Staines
Liberal Democrats (Laura Barker): 804 (38.0%, New)
Reform UK: 499 (23.6%, +21.6)
Independent: 261 (12.3%, New)
Conservative: 231 (10.9%, -21.9)
Green Party: 163 (7.7%, -36.3)
Labour: 158 (7.5%, New)
Liberal Democrats GAIN from Green Party
Turnout: 30.3%
In Guildford, the localist party Residents for Guildford and the Villages were attempting to defend one of their two county seats. Despite this, we were able to successfully gain this seat off them with a convincing victory. Congratulations to Councillor Catherine Houstonand the local team!
Surrey County Council, Guildford South East
Liberal Democrats (Catherine Houston): 1,426 (41.3%, +18.0)
Conservative: 788 (22.8%, -8.1)
R4GV: 565 (16.3%, -21.4)
Reform UK: 416 (12.0%, New)
Green Party: 172 (5.0%, New)
Labour: 89 (2.6%, -5.6%)
Liberal Democrats GAIN from Residents for Guildford and the Villages
Turnout: 32.86%
In Surrey Heath, we secured a decisive victory, gaining a seat at the expense of the Conservatives. Congratulations to Councillor Alan Ashbury and the local team!
Surrey County Council, Camberley West
Liberal Democrats (Alan Ashbery): 1,617 (49.5%, +16.6%)
Reform UK: 845 (25.9%, New)
Conservative: 666 (20.4%, -28.8%)
Labour: 140 (4.3%, -11.4%)
Liberal Democrats GAIN from Conservatives
Turnout: 27.28%
In Reigate, we were successfully able to defend a seat, increasing our vote share by over 10%. Congratulations to Councillor Mark Johnston and the local team for securing a convincing victory.
Reigate and Banstead Council, Meadvale and St John’s
Liberal Democrats (Mark Johnston): 1,009 (48.3%, +11.7)
Green Party: 368 (17.6%, -0.5)
Conservative: 251 (12.0%, -16.9)
Reform UK: 242 (11.6%, New)
Independent: 218 (10.4%, New)
Liberal Democrats HOLD
Turnout: 31.3%
In Tandridge, there were two by-elections; one was for the county and one for the district. Congratulations to Councillor Tony Pearce, who is now a double-hatted councillor, and the local team for defending these seats!
Surrey County Council, Caterham Valley
Liberal Democrats (Tony Pearce): 1,182 (48.1%, +0.6)
Reform UK: 601 (24.5%, new)
Conservative: 320 (13.0%, -23.5)
Green Party: 135 (5.5%, new)
Independent: 131 (5.3%, new)
Labour: 89 (3.6%, -6.9%)
Liberal Democrats HOLD
Turnout: 25.1%
Tandridge District Council, Whyteleafe
Liberal Democrats (Tony Pearce): 259 (44.9%, +14.2)
Reform UK: 154 (26.7%, new)
Conservative: 57 (9.9%, +0.4)
Labour: 56 (9.7%, -1.7)
Green Party: 51 (8.8%, +3.6)
Liberal Democrats HOLD
Turnout: 18.6%
In Suffolk, commiserations to Mark Hurley, who lost narrowly to Reform UK, due to the Greens splitting the vote. Nonetheless, well done to Mark and the local team for ensuring that we remained competitive throughout.
Babergh District Council, Copdock and Washbrook
Reform UK: 323 (32.0%, New)
Liberal Democrats (Mark Hurley): 292 (28.9%, -27.5)
Green Party: 238 (23.6%, +9.5)
Conservative: 140 (13.9%, -15.7)
Labour: 17 (1.7%, New)
Reform UK GAIN from Liberal Democrats
Turnout: 37.74%
In Trafford, the Conservatives secured a solid win, as their vote share remained relatively firm relative to Labour, in a by-election with an extremely high turnout. Well done to Louise Bird and the local team for ensuring that we finished in third place, ahead of Reform UK, and increasing our vote share by nearly 15%. This was a strong effort from a team who had no prior activity in this area until now and allows them a strong foundation to further develop this ward for future elections.
Trafford Council, Broadheath
Conservative: 1,614 (36.8%, -4.4)
Labour: 978 (22.3%, -19.0)
Liberal Democrats (Louise Bird): 841 (19.2%, +14.9)
Reform UK: 723 (16.5%, +11.2)
Green Party: 204 (4.7%, -1.9)
Independent: 22 (0.5%, -0.8)
Conservative GAIN from Labour
Turnout: 49.6%
In Scotland, an independent candidate secured a narrow win, with the defending SNP closely behind in second place. Thank you to Mason Graham and the local team for flying the Liberal Democrat flag.
South Ayrshire Council, Ayr North
Independent (Hogg): 850 (25.1%, New)
SNP: 790 (23.3%, -21.8)
Labour: 691 (20.4%, -7.5)
Reform UK: 584 (17.3%, New)
Conservative: 195 (5.8%, -10.2)
Independent (Petrie): 151 (4.5%, New)
Liberal Democrats (Mason Graham): 73 (2.2%, +0.3)
Independent (Bulikj): 51 (1.5%, New)
Independent GAIN from SNP
Turnout: 27.0%
Thank you to all of our candidates, agents, and campaign teams.
A full summary of these results, and all other principal council by-elections, can be found on the ALDC by-elections page here.
* Liam Yip is the Campaigns and Communications Intern at ALDC
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20 Comments
Bumper week of good results, especially Surrey. But we do need to keep an eye on the Green party who are occasionally pushing us into fifth place. If we can lose votes in local elections then we can also do so in national elections.
And the best news is only one Reform win.
On the Polling front Reform continue their plateau of the last 2 Months, averaging around 31%.
Fantastic result in Preston, could we have the most councillors on the council if elections go ahead in May 2026? As in Pendle in Lancashire earlier this year we seem to be the only party able to repel Reform. Great results in Surrey too.
Some background for Staines, although not sure how well this would replicate in other areas.
I co-organised the Staines campaign, and although this is notionally a gain from the Greens, it was very clear from very early on that this was a Reform-facing fight. We had not stood in Staines since 2011 due to a lack of candidates and resources, but its was clear that much of the progressive vote which had opted for the Greens or Labour last time were latent Lib Dem voters. However, it was significant challenge to convince these voters to revert back to us. We knocked on thousands of doors. In the end it was worth it.
I also managed the Ashford Town victory a few months earlier, where we had also not stood for nearly 2 decades. That was trickier as there was far less of a latent Lib Dem vote, but we put in a lot of groundwork too and scraped through with 27.4% of the vote. There too Reform came second.
The main lesson for me seems to be to make sure local parties stand candidates wherever they can, every time, and that the old paradigm of Tory-Lib Dem marginals may be coming to an end. Will a different type of campaigning be required to beat Reform?
Congratulations on your two by-election victories!
Spelthorne must now be a target seat at national level.
David Sparrow – Preston resident here, no, the LDs won’t have the most councillors in 2026. Labour will remain the largest party, albeit likely losing their majority.
The LDs are defending 5 seats – Ashton (this one, unfortunately for the LDs the seat was due up in 2026 anyway, so no opportunity to ‘double up’), Cadley,Greyfriars,Ingol and Cottam and Lea and Larches(another by-election victory).They are extremely likely to gain another seat in Sharoe Green from the Tories, and will also be gunning for Preston Rural North, where they won in 2024.
They might try for Garrison, where they hold part of the overlapping Preston North CC division. I realistically expect them to have 16 seats after the local elections (Their 14 current, plus Sharoe Green and Preston RN), perhaps 17.
Meanwhile, Labour currently have 27 seats and are defending 8, meaning even if they lose everything they’d still have 19 seats and be ahead of the LDs. Essentially, Labour’s vote is fracturing three ways – they are losing West Preston to the LDs, whilst Central Preston is under threat from Your Party’ and East Preston is under threat from Reform UK. LDs are currently fairly weak in Central and East Preston, and are unlikely to gain any seats in those areas. I expect Labour will lose their majority and form a coalition with Your Party, with LDs being opposition. 2026 is likely to be the last election to Preston Council before it is merged with other councils in 2028.
Also a great Town Council victory in Newhaven which is within one of our MP seats.
Two items to note from the analysis:
1. Reform UK are polling notably worse in those wards where LibDems are offering a viable alternative. On a national level, this means that the Lab/Con swings to Reform UK are lower in seats where LibDems provide a clear alternative. It also means that LibDems are doing worse in seats where they have little chance of winning.
2. In wards where Labour are not defending, their votes are drying up and in many cases they are having desirory results, indicating that many Labour members and even activists are deciding to abstain or even switch votes. When the Corbynites finally launch themselves, there will be seats where Labour in no longer able to put forward candidates except where their national organisation is able to intervene and do the work. Estimates that the Corbynites will actually win about a dozen seats in 2029 (mainly in the inner cities) may turn out to be an under-estimate. Meanwhile, how will they fare next May?
In above, for “desirory” read “derisory”.
A very quick back-of-an-envelope calculation shows that in the six by-elections in Surrey on Thursday, the Conservatives averaged 15% of the vote. That’s not something I would have expected to see in my lifetime.
This is the scorecard for all the local by-elections since the last round of local elections in MAy 2025.
Con 14 (-15)
Lab 12 (-32)
LD 39 (+13)
RefUK 48 (+41)
Green 11 (+2)
SNP 1 (-2)
PC 1 (=)
Loc 3 (-4)
Ind 6 (-3)
We have only lost 2 by-elections in all this time. So we are doing very well at holding our current seats.
Nearly all new gains are coming in areas where we are already in control or are viable challengers at a national level. This is promising for further gains at Westminster.
it’s notable that these advances are occurring even whilst we are not achieving much cut through in the national media.
PS “Loc” is short for “Localist”.
Shame about the result in Babergh. As far as I know this is the first time we have ever lost a local by-election to Reform.
To add a bit of detail to Rifs analysis:
We all know that the vote of both Cons and Labour is collapsing due to their catastrophic terms in government. This may also apply to the SNP in Scotland, but after their collapse in 2014, they may manage to wrap themselves in the flag, independence and general discontent with Westminster (i.e. anything but how they have performed in government) to make gains there.
Reform is making significant progress almost everywhere and substantial progress in areas where we haven’t recovered since coalition.
However, as Rif makes clear where they face the Lib Dems it is a very different story.
a) Where we have a good team and built up a recognised local presence, we almost always beat Reform because, on top of the vote we have developed, the ‘Oh my god not Farage again’ know where to vote to stop the rot. So almost always we hold what we have and we win from second or even third.
b) This also applies where we are known to be competitive in a general area (e.g. Surrey, West country etc) we can usually win there of the time.
c) The exception is where the Greens put in a big effort from a wider area where they are known to be more successful than us. Sadly Suffolk, Con 55 seats, Green 9, Lab 5, Lib Dem 4 is one such area. Thankfully there aren’t a lot more, but we must not underestimate them.
excellent and exciting results especially in the south ! Odd that the Tories win a labour seat in the north too.
Don’t read too much into the Ayr by election result, the independent is a local man who runs a fencing visit and has an internet following locally of twenty thousand or more. He won it on the 7th transfer from the SNP. Well done to him
We always need to remember that the Greens are trying to eat our lunch. There is a law of ecology that two species cannot occupy the same ecological niche simultaneously. Applies to political parties.
The latest Poll, from Yougov, has Reform at its lowest level for three Months, a blip or a straw in the wind ?
@ Paul Barker,
Spot the “plateau” in this graph!
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/6e/Opinion_polling_graph_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election_%28post-2024%29.svg/1920px-Opinion_polling_graph_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election_%28post-2024%29.svg.png
@ Paul Barker,
Can you spot the “plateau” in the graph on this page?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
@Peter Martin
The Wiki graph is based on a very sophisticated & (to me) opaque algorithm, frankly, it’s over my head. I have noticed that the most recent part of the line has a tendency to jump about, pointing up or down on what seems to be a very small number of Polls. For these reasons I have stopped taking any notice of it.
My “Plateau” comment is based on averaging 20 Polls at a time.