This week there were five by-elections for seven seats, with a rare triple by-election in Maidstone. It was a strong week for Reform UK, winning six of the available seats, with Labour narrowly holding off their challenge in Ellesmere Port.
On the Isle of Wight, Bob Blezzard’s vote share increase wasn’t enough to prevent a Reform UK hold. Thank you to the team for their efforts.
Isle of Wight Council, Lake North
Reform UK: 290 (36.8%, +0.7)
Conservative: 249 (31.6%, +2.8)
Liberal Democrats (Bob Blezzard): 118 (15.0%, +4.4)
Green Party: 88 (11.2%, -0.9)
Labour: 44 (5.6%, -0.2)
Reform UK HOLD
Turnout: 28.4%
In Wigan, Peter Burley and team gained a slight increase in the vote, when all other previous tickets went down. Thank you for standing.
Wigan Metropolitan Borough Council, Wigan Central
Reform UK: 1391 (47.2%, new)
Labour: 970 (32.9%, -15.3)
Independent: 196 (6.7%, new)
Conservative: 151 (5.1%, -9.4)
Green Party: 130 (4.4%, -2.1)
Liberal Democrats (Peter Burley): 109 (3.7%, +0.2)
Reform UK GAIN from Labour
Turnout: 30.9%
Ellesmere Port was the scene of Reform UK’s only miss of the week, as Labour held on. Thank you to Lizzie Jewkes and the team for adding to the Lib Dem vote in a more crowded fieldthan previous.
Cheshire West and Chester Council UA, Strawberry
Labour: 602 (35.8%, -32.9)
Reform UK: 539 (32.0%, new)
Independent: 231 (13.7%, new)
Conservative: 132 (7.8%, -16.8)
Liberal Democrats (Lizzie Jewkes): 121 (7.2%, +0.5)
Green Party: 58 (3.4%, new)
Labour HOLD
Turnout: 41.6%
Brentwood saw Reform gain from the Conservatives. Thank you to Brenner Munden and the team for flying the Lib Dem flag.
Brentwood Borough Council, Hutton South
Reform UK: 805 (45.8%, new)
Conservative: 544 (30.9%, -14.5)
Labour: 234 (13.3%, -14.5)
Liberal Democrats (Brenner Munden): 109 (6.2%, -9.6)
Green Party: 66 (3.8%, -7.2)
Reform UK GAIN from Conservative
Turnout: 34.1%
Finally, a bit of a collector’s item, with all three seats up for grabs in this Maidstone ward, and a free-for-all following the departure of three independents. Well done to the local Lib Dems for standing Jennifer Horwood, Sam Burrows and Andrew Cockersole, to compete for all three seats.
Maidstone Borough Council, Harrietsham Lenham & North Downs
Reform UK: 1228 (50.4%, +38.8)
Reform UK: 1226
Reform UK: 1153
Green Party: 459 (18.8%, new)
Green Party: 452
Green Party: 430
Conservative: 342 (14.0%, -2.6)
Conservative: 285
Liberal Democrats (Jennifer Horwood): 236 (9.7%, new)
Conservative: 234
Liberal Democrats (Sam Burrows): 156
Liberal Democrats (Andrew Cockersole): 123
Heritage: 97 (4.0%, new)
Independent: 74 (3.0%, new)
Independent: 69
Reform UK GAIN from Independent X 3
Turnout: 31%
Thank you to all of our candidates, agents, and campaign teams.
A full summary of these results, and all other principal council by-elections, can be found on the ALDC by-elections page here.
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8 Comments
Strewth …What can one say. Some eye-opening turnovers in some very surprising places.
On the Polling front, Reform have been on a plateau of 31% or so for the last 2 Months with no clear sign of movement up or down.
I still believe that we are seeing a Bubble, such as we have benefited from in the past. I think their support will fade bu I have no idea when.
Our bubble has only burst because of external events such as The Falklands War or self inflicted wounds such as our handling of Brexit or the coalition. It may be that the economy will improve so that people return to Labour or that Reform implode. Neither can be guaranteed and we should plan that they won’t happen. What to do to prevent Reform forming the next government? Judging by our results in these by elections, we are too thinly spread to make much of a difference.
As agent in the only Reform miss of the night, just look at the turnout. At 42% this was very much up on the previous election. All parties put effort in here, possibly Reform’s visible campaign was the least quantitatively speaking.
Our campaign was highly visible with a good candidate, but many people chose to not risk a Reform gain and voted Labour.
The lesson I’ve learnt here is to make yourself heard and raise awareness of the election, even if they don’t vote for you. Higher turnouts are I believe usually bad news for Reform!
Next week we have to fight off Reform at Bath, Yate and Teignbridge. It could be quite a bumpy ride.
Reform seem to be increasing support, the more we criticize the more they get.
The turnout in Strawberry ward was remarkably high, but I don’t think we can deduce a high turnout is bad for Reform. Labour lost nearly half their vote share compared to 2023 – down from 69% to 36%, and it looks like that practically all went to Reform. Looks like they only held the seat because their core base vote was so high in that area.
Of course it’s also possible the vote may have been influenced by the Runcorn and Helsby by-election earlier this year, but probably only marginally since Strawberry ward lies just beyond the constituency boundary.
For those interested in more than one week’s results here is my regular monthly data for the last fifty local by-elections up to the end of September.
Percentage Vote Share:
Reform UK 26.97%, Conservatives 18.42%, Labour 17.76%, Liberal Democrats 16.00%, Greens 10.92%, Others 11.70%.
Gains and losses are:
Reform: Net gain of sixteen: 17 gains, 2 held, 1 lost
Lib Dems: Net gain of two: 3 gains, 5 held, 1 lost
Greens: Net gain of two: 3 gains, 3 held, 1 lost
Independents: Net gain of one: 1 gain, 2 held, 0 lost
Others: Net loss of one: 0 gains, 1 held, 1 lost
Conservatives: Net loss of five: 4 gains, 5 held, 9 lost
Labour: Net loss of fifteen: 0 gains, 5 held, 15 lost
Seats Won:
Reform won 19 seats, Conservatives 9, Liberal Democrats 8, Greens 6, Labour 5, Independents 3, Others (Plaid Cymru) 1
(This does not total 50 as there was a double vacancy in one ward).
The above data is for the most recent 50 by-elections in England & Wales (10th July to 25th September 2025). Parish/Town councils are not included.
To take an even longer view – If we look at all of the by-elections in England & Wales after this year’s local elections (all 103 of them) the switches between Reform and other parties is interesting.
Labour have lost 20 by-elections to Reform and gained none.
Conservatives have lost 13 by-elections to Reform, but gained two back.
Independents & Others have lost 6 by-elections to Reform, and gained none back.
So far, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens have not lost any by-elections to Reform. Indeed, the Lib Dems have a gain of one seat from Reform.
@ Paul Barker,
“Reform have been on a plateau of 31% or so for the last 2 Months with no clear sign of movement up or down.”
Wishful thinking, I’m afraid.
But, don’t take my word for it. Take a look at the graph.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/6e/Opinion_polling_graph_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election_%28post-2024%29.svg