Today is the 10th anniversary of the EU Referendum
Ten years ago, many of our readers will have voted and would have been working hard for the previous few months to help make the argument for the United Kingdom’s place in the European Union.
Ultimately Britain Stronger In Europe didn’t win and like many people at the time, I remember being at a count, seeing the Sunderland result come in and the scale of the win for leave and thinking we’re f****d. This was not out of a sense of I told you so, more out of a growing realisation that the progressive, internationalist outlook that made me proud to be British had been largely shattered over the course of an evening.
In the decade since that day, things for our country have lurched from bad, to worse. We have missed out on roughly 6-8% of growth and have left ourselves exposed to the whims of an increasingly erratic USA. We also cut off our trading relationships with our friends and neighbours in the EU, causing both parties harm in a race to show some sort of Churchillian machismo. Needless to say the poorest in British society paid the price for this.
Over the next decade many of us fought hard for our place in Europe. for example I took on the mantle of standing for the Liberal Democrats in Clacton on Sea, many others laid the groundwork for future success, winning back councils and providing an alternative to the chaos of the Conservatives. The aim was that by showing them that Brexit could cost the conservatives seats and power, we could force them to rethink. Sadly, as the fact we left the EU tells us, we were wrong.
Ten years on we have spent a lot of time having to work around the effects of Brexit whilst fighting off a cost-of-living crisis. The cost-of-living crisis alongside the issues such as covid, government incompetence and Trumps trade wars have coalesced to eat away at our national prosperity. The effect of this is quite simply that things are getting worse and show no signs of abating.
The public want investment in public services and they want lower taxes but our national decision making over the past ten years has made that nearly impossible.
Therefore, it seems apparent that we need an honest, open conversation about the cost of poor decision making over the last decade and part of that conversation needs to be a discussion about our future relationship with the European Union.
This is not because I am nostalgic for the past, or even because I naively believe that we will get the same deal we had in the past. This is really because our economy is struggling and the cost of the state is booming, if we want to genuinely give people a better deal then we have to look at ways to boost our growth significantly.
The best way to do that is to open up discussions about how we can rejoin the European Union. The Liberal Democrats have a moral duty to lead that discussion.
* Callum Robertson is a teacher and member of the Federal Board. He is a Watford Borough Councillor.
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10 Comments
The logic of this article is that we should be rejoining the Single Market. That is different from signing up to complete political Union by joining the EU.
Let’s start by arguing that the economic benefits of the Single Market far exceed having to accept freedom of movement into the UK, and take it from there.
‘Needless to say the poorest in British society paid the price for this’
I remember canvassing , the poorer the area the less interested they were. Membership was irrelevant to them.
“Let’s start by arguing that the economic benefits of the Single Market far exceed having to accept freedom of movement into the UK, and take it from there.”
Ed Davey is already making these arguments (*). I am very surprised to see they are not being reported here.
(*). https://www.libdems.org.uk/press/release/ed-davey-unveils-plan-to-join-single-market-and-boost-defence-ties-with-eu
“In the decade since that day…….We have missed out on roughly 6-8% of growth”
Where does this figure come from? In any case, we didn’t actually leave the EU until the end of 2020. So we really should be using figures of GDP since then for comparison.
If I Google the question “What has been the average annual gdp growth rate for the UK since 2021” The answer comes back ( from their AI) as 3.2%.
For France it is 2.6%. For Germany it is 0.6%
I seem to remember reading that LibDems prided themselves on their scientific and evidence based approach. This means that figures need to be referenced.
If you look closely at your source you’ll likely see something like “we calculate that UK GDP is N% lower than it would have been without Brexit”. In other words, these figures aren’t from a direct comparison of how well the UK is performing relative to our neighbours in EU, but rather they are comparisons of how well we’re doing compared to a UK in some parallel universe which is still somehow part of it.
The big problem, statistically, is that a lot has happened since 2021. Covid, Wars in Ukraine and Iran. The rise of a certain president. So it’s really quite difficult, if not impossible, to separate out all the factors which matter. Anyone who claims they can is deluding themselves.
All we can sensibly do is make direct comparisons with our neighbours in the EU.
Tristan, % differences are largely meaningless..
Germany boasts a nominal GDP of approximately $5.4 trillion, making it Europe’s largest economy. The UK’s nominal GDP sits around $3.6 trillion.
So, for the same ‘$ growth,’ we’d see a much lower ‘%growth’ for Germany..
Jana 23rd Jun ’26 – 6:05pm:
Let’s start by arguing that the economic benefits of the Single Market far exceed having to accept freedom of movement into the UK,…
There are no net economic benefits. The UK already has full tariff and quota free access to the ‘single market’ (the EU Internal Market) with the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA). When an EU member the UK benefited by an estimated €10 per head — about £500 million a year: less than a twentieth of the UK’s EU membership contribution. That’s not from some ‘Brexity’ eurosceptic source, but from the ”decidedly pro-EU” German think-tank, Bertelsmann Stiftung…
‘Policy Brief #2014/02: 20 years of the European single market: growth effects of EU integration’:
https://www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de/en/publications/publication/did/20-years-of-the-european-single-market-growth-effects-of-eu-integration/
That was in 2014. It would be even less of an advantage today as the EU has diminished in importance (from 18% of world GDP in 2014 to 13.8% today) and the composition of UK exports has rapidly shifted from goods to services — in 2014, 62% of UK exports to the EU were goods, today, it’s 47%. There isn’t any meaningful EU ‘single market’ in services — the UK’s great strength.
Jana – There is no mention of any form of “political union” anywhere in the EU Treaties.
Indeed, this was explicitly clarified by the other leaders in the EU Council in the Special Protocol that David Cameron secured before calling the referendum (and which he never (or barely) mentioned during the referendum campaign).
The gist of much of that was there is no obligation on the member states of the EU to do anything other than what they agree to do (ie there is no “predestination”) and that the member states are free to have the EU do either more OR LESS than it currently does as they and they alone see fit.
‘
@ Paul R ,
The EU Treaties may not explicitly use the term “political union,” but they legally codify the core objectives of “ever closer union among the peoples of Europe” and the establishment of an EU citizenship.
You can’t have an EU citizenship without a political union.
Furthermore it describes itself as:
“The European Union (EU) is a unique economic and political union between 27 European countries….”
https://op.europa.eu/webpub/com/short-guide-eu/en/about-eu.html
Hi
Once the economic,social and other factors will be indicated,it will be essential to mark and acknowledge that at least six millions EU citizens and at least 500k British citizens are an subject to so called ,*Withdrawal agreement*. While many of the aspects have been raised the main points and obstacles constantly providing for me and others a alien environment in which those in subject finding themselves without concrete guaranties and often needs to explain themselves without any legal reasons Why would the legal long term residents of UK need to be asked by the border force what is their reason to visit the UK this time .It is not only humiliation but generally observed as the common occurrence. With the political narrative this days we are fearing what will happen next, however the British Citizenship costs and other aspects are almost impossible for most,which would prevent many of those in subject to protect themselves from potential complications. Hundreds of publications and reports provide similar view, however the subject seems to be forgotten? I wish to have discussions related to this subject,how the presented above problem can be seen by those not directly involved ?