It’s vital to learn from failures. But it’s much more fun to learn from successes. So there is a lot of fun to be had in learning the lessons for the Liberal Democrats from the latest local elections.
Let’s summarise those successes with three numbers:
- +407 seats – the party’s second biggest gain in raw seats since the mid-1990s.
- +12 councils – taking the number of Lib Dem majority councils to its highest for at least 18 years.
- 20% equivalent national share – the highest on this BBC measure since going into coalition in 2010. (The alternative NEV measure was the joint best since 2010.)
However, it’s important to remember that not everyone who hoped to win did so. For colleagues who were seeking election but didn’t make it, it can be even tougher when all around people are celebrating. If you, or someone close to you, is in that position, my commiserations and thanks for all you’ve done.
Five in a row
Perhaps the most important element of the local election results is one that has been mostly overlooked. It’s that the Lib Dems have now made it five rounds of local elections in a row at which we’ve made net gains. You have to go back to 2002-6 for the last time we did that.
Another way of looking at our progress is the cumulative gains and losses so far in May elections during this Parliament:
- Lib Dems +637
- Greens +416
- Labour +318
- Conservatives -1,309
That’s the sort of sustained progress which has been an important part of the party’s strategy in this Parliament: investing in our grassroots campaigning support, for both stronger and weaker areas, concentrating on target seats at election time but expanding our areas of strength as we do. Sustained grassroots growth is what will make us a successful national party.
The most dramatic progress was against the Conservatives, and as in 2019 once again our vote share did best the more an area had voted Remain. In areas that voted Remain in 2016, our vote share was up nearly 1.5 points on average, though in areas that voted 60% or more Leave in 2016, our vote share was down just under a point.
But in addition, many groups primarily up against Labour managed to grow, including us becoming the official opposition on Sunderland Council.
Overall, in the places with zero or one Lib Dem council seat up for election this time, we made a net 21 gains, going from 32 councillors in these councils to 53. Four times as many of these smaller places went forward as went back and we went up in every region.
Map of Lib Dem seat gains in May 2023 local elections
Regional breakdown of seat changes in May 2023 local elections