Author Archives: Simon Banks

What really happened?

Soon after the Second World War ended, a German Jewish survivor, a brilliant philosophy student, sat down to explain to herself and the world how Hitler and Stalin had turned organised madness into an engine of government and destruction. Hannah Arendt’s The Origins of Totalitarianism came out in 1951.

Much of her analysis is dated or specific to the German or Russian peoples. But some is chillingly relevant.

How relevant is this to Trump’s MAGA movement, to Farage and Reform?

  • “Denial of the very possibility of a common mankind…total denial of the whole concept of human rights – stigmatised as weak, feeble-minded and hypocritical.”
  • Particular appeal to people who had not taken part in political life – non-voters etc – and such people could be kept loyal without much argument or influence of reason. “Politically indifferent masses could easily be a majority in a democratically ruled country…a democracy could function according to rules which are actively recognised by only a minority.”

Reform’s success has been to combine the intolerant hard right, which always existed, with voters who previously had not voted in local elections, and maybe not in any elections – people who neither understood not trusted the system.

Why is such a large pool of such voters available? The internet, the right-wing media and immigration are obvious and real reasons – but there are others.

There were always many people beyond social or work organisation, beyond strong and stable communities. In 18th century Europe they were numerous in cities, fuelling the Porteous Riots in Edinburgh and the Gordon Riots in London. In the 19th century, they declined despite urbanisation, because of the rise of an urbanised working class – possessing regular jobs, working en masse and unionised. Moreover, Methodists, Baptists and Catholics recruited and organised among urban workers. The Nonconformist churches and the unions had a participative ethos, promoting active mutual support. Both unions and chapels were strongly linked to the Liberals while the Conservative Party relied on traditional ties: rural land-based hierarchy, Church of England, military.

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What has happened?

In an Essex district, three excellent candidates stood for election to the county council. Two were experienced councillors, one Labour, one Conservative, well-known, well-liked, well-dug-in to their communities and having done plenty for those communities. One was a Liberal Democrat challenger in a division where the sitting Conservative was standing down. This candidate too was highly popular, a district councillor who had accomplished much.

All three lost to Reform. The Reform candidates were unknowns. Their party did not think fit to tell the voters anything about them. They did little locally. Whereas those three losing candidates all ran campaigns highlighting genuine local issues, Reform’s nationally-posted literature had nothing local to say except that the county council’s finances were in a mess; and I would bet that with the slightest of adjustments, they could have deleted “Essex”, inserted “West Sussex” – and probably did.

All three non-Reform candidates were satisfied to highly encouraged by their canvassing and by informal reactions. To experienced campaigners, it looked good.

It wasn’t. Why the mismatch?

At the same time, in a Labour-dominated London Borough, where the then Liberal Party (including myself) broke through in 1982, but Labour later re-established their dominance, the Greens make a spectacular breakthrough. Both the wards where we broke through in 1982 went Green.

What is happening?

Undoubtedly, the two-party system is breaking – no, broken. The causes of decline in the Conservatives and Labour are several and not all inevitable – for example, the Conservatives’ lemming-rush since 2015 to populist intolerance to the point of idiocy; and Labour’s choice of a leader peculiarly incapable of passion or vision. What of the Liberal Democrats?

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A SWOT analysis for the Liberal Democrats?

Long ago, working in primary care management, I was struck by how the partners of an excellent GP practice, replacing a retiring partner, had not even asked themselves how their area might change over 20 years or so and whether this might influence their choice. In my Liberal Democrat local party and region, it was clear to me many local parties were stumbling on, doing what they knew, grumbling about too much work and not enough people, knowing their activists were ageing, but doing little to find new ones: plenty of hard work, but no vision, no strategy.

So I became an advocate for local party Development Plans before the English Party pushed the issue and made a development plan a constitutional requirement for local parties (that’s fixed, then).  As Chair of my Region’s Development Committee, I’ve been encouraging and advising on the things ever since.

If you’re in a hole, discover how deep the hole is and how to get out of it. If you’ve made progress but reached a plateau, identify the pinch points and what can be done. A basic tool for this is a SWOT analysis (not to be confused with heavily armed police: Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats.).

If this is a good idea for local parties, as I’m convinced it is, what about higher levels?

Regional Parties will have strategies, but they may well not include a hard look at existing strengths and weaknesses. The English Party and the Federal Party have various plans, often quickly forgotten, but apparently nothing like a Development Plan; strategy means the next election (as in Ed Davey’s “Guardian” interview) and SWOT analysis could be embarrassing.

What would a SWOT analysis for the whole party right now look like?

Of course, strengths would include 72 MPs, with the credibility the election result brings us. Another would be an HQ election operation, unlike 2015 and 2019, that listens to local feedback, looks at Connect input and opinion polls and reacts accordingly. Then, a comparatively open and democratic party, compared to Labour’s obsessive top-down control; and many hardworking councillors.

Weaknesses? Are there any? There are. For a start, after the surge in 2019, by all accounts party membership went into deep and spectacular decline, though figures have not been published for some time. Our campaigns need activists; activists are drawn from the membership; so a deep decline in membership is serious, possibly fatal. Increases at general election time are normal; we hear this has happened, but how much? Without openness about the figures, no judgment can be made. But will new members fall away as most of the 2018-9 recruits did? Local parties should prioritise not just recruiting members, but engaging them, and not just in leafleting. Yet the pressure from the centre is for an almost Soviet programme of getting them working and harder, harder, harder! Fine, but can they also have fun?

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The downside to a brilliant May 4th

The local elections produced brilliant results overall, considering we were defending seats won in a good year. But there is always a downside and we best progress when we consider the downside honestly and try to deal with it.

In five authorities – all in the North or North Midlands – we lost our sole or only two councillors: Bassetlaw, Bury, East Staffordshire, Sandwell (lost two) and Stockton on Tees. When one councillor is elected in such places, it’s usually a very hardworking community activist – though in one or two cases, the lone or two councillors may have been survivors of a once-sizeable group. We have broken through in Middlesbrough, but I couldn’t see any other cases where we went from none to one or more (though in Maldon, we’d gained our first in a by-election and then went up to five). So the outcome is: FEWER councils have Liberal Democrat councillors.

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A personal specification for a leader

With another leadership election looming, what do we need in a leader? What’s essential and what’s merely desirable? If we don’t think clearly about these things, we’re likely to make bad choices.

We don’t have a Person Specification for the job, but maybe we should at least think that way. What would it look like?

Unfortunately, it wouldn’t stay the same. At some times, the ability to inspire the activists or to gain the attention of the media is vital. At others, the activists are already inspired, and the media are listening, but keen to find weaknesses. Then judgment is crucial. So I’ve not divided the points into Essential and Desirable, as would be normal with other Person Specs. I’ve also not mentioned specific issues such as the climate emergency, though I think not choosing a leader strong on that would be unwise.

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What is a movement?

In the discussion – and sales talk – around the party reform proposals, people often talk of creating a movement, sometimes equated to a supporter scheme. Sometimes, as in that video, it’s presented as an alternative to a political party. There is a danger of positive language being repeated till people stop asking what it means. So what is a movement and how’s it different from a political party?

“Movement” suggests moving – towards some shared goal. Parties can do that, but you can’t have a movement for not changing things much. Movements require mass participation.

Any party can call itself a movement. In France in 1945, some traditional parties were blamed for France’s unpreparedness for the war and others for collaborating. So a new party was called the “Mouvement Republican Populaire” – People’s Republican Movement. It was organised as a traditional party with mainly unclear goals.

Parties have a defined membership, organisation at local and national levels, a leader or leaders and some process for choosing people with particular responsibilities. Movements may or may not have these things.

Many movements campaign for something narrowly defined. Consider the 19th century movements for abolition of slavery in the UK and the US. The UK movement worked through traditional parties. The US movement founded its own parties (Free Soil, then Republican). Other genuine movements include the Feminist movement, the Green movement, CND and nationalist separatist movements. Some have formed parties, others not.

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