The Thucydides Trap

There has been much talk recently about the “Thucydides Trap”.  China’s President Xi Jinping is reported to have warned Donald Trump during his recent trip to Beijing that China and America were heading straight for the “Thucydides Trap.”

So what is it? It is a term coined by the diplomatic historian Graham Alison in his book “Destined for War.” Allison uses Thucydides’ history of the disastrous Peloponnesian War between Sparta (the established power) and Athens (the rising power) to argue that when one power becomes to challenge the hegemony of an existing power then war is inevitable.

It is not quite. In the 1920s the American military was drawing up plans for a war against Britain. The plan was called War Red. The plan involved a major land invasion across the border into Canada and a naval attack on British colonies in the Caribbean.

Britain had a counter-attack plan, but its plan was not as comprehensive. Fairly early on it realised that its war-ravaged economy could not win a war against the rising American industrial giant. There were other important factors. These included the two countries’ shared experience of World War I. There was also the fact that a 300-year-old shared cultural experience and perspective outweighed the competitive aspects of the relationship. The British increasingly saw themselves as the Greeks to America’s Rome, as Harold Macmillan later put it.

“War Plan Red was one of the rare cases where strategic rivalry did not culminate in war. Alison gives 12 examples of how countries became victims of the Thucydides Trap. They include the Crusades, the Franco-Prussian War, World War One and World War Two. War Red is listed—along with three others—as the exceptions that prove the rule.

Cultural links ensured that War Red did not become a disastrous reality. But China and America lack the deep cultural, linguistic and historical ties that softened the transfer of power from Britain to the United States.

Ebola

Ebola is a terrible disease. It attacks your internal organs. You bleed from the inside out. Death is painful and quick.

In much of Africa it is customary to wash the bodies of corpses before burial. The practice can be fatal as the disease is spread through contact with infected bodily fluids. They remain contagious long after death.

In the last outbreak, 2014-2016, 11,300 people died. The epidemic was contained to West Africa because Britain and America flooded the region with health workers and soldiers. The UK committed more than $500 million to fight the epidemic. America sent 3,000 people to fight the disease.

It worked. The doctors and nurses won. Not only that but systems were put in place to effectively detect and fight any further outbreaks. Then came Trump in America and Boris Johnson in Britain. Aid budgets were slashed.  Three thousand staff were cut from America’s Centre for Disease Control. The biggest axe fell on the departments involved in fighting overseas epidemics. The situation was almost as bad in Britain.

The epidemic fighting network that was established a decade ago was badly weakened. Especially hard hit were the surveillance systems which are designed to detect the first signs of the disease, contain it and treat it. Britain has so far committed only $30 million to fighting the latest outbreak. America has made promises but little has materialised. Oxfam says that coordination meetings now produce “blank stares” when money is requested.

To make matters worse the outbreak has occurred in the middle of a region locked in a long-running civil war. Refugees, soldiers and criminal gangs roam freely in the humid Congolese jungle– a perfect petri dish for disease.

So far there have been 60 confirmed cases of Ebola since it was first reported in the DRC’s Ituri Province at the end of April. But health officials believe that is only the tip of the iceberg. The civil war plus the collapse of a surveillance system and the aid that supported it means that the true figure could be far closer to the 700 mark.

Health officials now believe the outbreak may have begun as early as February. In other words, Ebola may have been spreading for months before anyone noticed. That is what happens when surveillance systems collapse. It also means that the virus is entrenched and the epidemic will last longer, kill more and spread further.

Health workers managed to contain the 2014-16 Ebola outbreak to West Africa. There were a handful of foreign health workers who contracted the disease. Some returned to America and died. Some survived. A Scottish health worker returned and survived after several scary relapses.  These cases were the exception, and they were so because of the money and people thrown at the problem. It also helped that West Africa was relatively stable.

Uganda and the DRC is a war zone. They have also suffered dramatic Western cuts in health resources. Jean Kaseya of the African Centre for Disease Control has warned that if resources to contain the current outbreak are not forthcoming then “everyone will be at risk.”  And by ‘everyone,’ he does not just mean Africa.

Donald Trump

With a flourish of the pen, acting Attorney General Todd Blanche, has attempted to recast the moral and legal foundations of the January 6 Capitol Hill riots.

The rioters who stormed the citadel of American Democracy are no longer criminals. They are victims of the system. And as such, according to Blanche, are being invited to apply for compensation from a slush fund whose creation has been described as “one of the most corrupt acts in American political history.”

The £1.8 billion compensation fund is the fruit of a lawsuit brought by President Trump against the Internal Revenue Service (which he controls) with the aid of the Department of Justice (which he controls). In short, he sued himself on behalf of himself.

To further muddy the waters, Trump’s settlement with the IRS reportedly gives him and his family immunity from tax audits. Forbes magazine reckons this move alone will save the Trump family $700 million in taxes.

But back to the rioters. One lawyer has already signed up 400 of the rioters to make a claim against the fund. Enrique Tarrio, leader of the Proud Boys, was sentenced to 22 years for sedition. He is suing for $4-5 million.  The rioters were pardoned by Trump on his first day back in office, but a pardon is not the same as the reversal of a guilty sentence. Compensating them is tantamount to saying that their actions were justifiable in law.

Compensating the rioters also that Trump is right claiming that the 2020 president elections were fraudulent. They must be, because the rioters now appear to have been performing their patriotic duty in attempting to overturn the result.

The slush fund and the possibility of compensation for the rioters may be a step too far for Republican lawmakers. On Thursday a group of 25 Republican senators met for two hours with Blanche for what was described as an “intensely hostile” discussion. After the meeting, Republican grandee Mitch McConnell, said: “So the nation’s top law enforcement official is asking for a slush fund to pay people who assault cops? Utterly stupid, morally wrong—take your pick.”

McConnell’s comments are another sign that the hitherto solid pro-Trump brick wall is starting to develop cracks. In the House of Representatives, Speaker Mike Johnson, adjourned Congress a day early for its May break because he was in danger of losing a vote calling for an end to the Iran War.

Republican legislators are also angry that Trump is endorsing candidates based on their loyalty to him rather than their electoral appeal. The latest example is Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a rabid Trump loyalist who wants to be a US senator.

Paxton’s private life is a riveting tale of various extramarital affairs. His public life is peppered with accusations of securities fraud, bribery, abuse of office, corruption, obstruction of justice, retaliation against whistleblowers, misuse of public resources and misconduct in office.

Trump’s stranglehold on his MAGA base remains solid. This base is a large proportion of the Republican vote. This means that a Trump endorsement in a Republican primary is a golden ticket. But  Republican Party membership and Trump’s wider approval ratings are dropping. This means that the same endorsement could be the kiss of death when the candidate faces the wider electorate of Democrats and Independents.

* Tom Arms is foreign editor of Liberal Democrat Voice. He also contributes to “The New World” magazine and lectures on world affairs. He is the author of “America Made in Britain,” two editions of “The Encyclopaedia of the Cold War” and “The Falklands Crisis.”