The Gulf region is on the cusp of peace. That is according to President Donald Trump who issues more lies and obfuscations than my dog Bear barks in any given day.

Having said that, both Axios and Reuters report that there is now a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) which indicates Iranian willingness to discuss suspending uranium enrichment, a partial lifting of US sanctions against Iran and unfreezing of assets and some sort of return to normality in the Strait of Hormuz.

It should be stressed, however, that an MOU is not a peace deal. It is merely an agreement on talking points.

But According to Trump the MOU was enough for him to suspend “Operation Freedom”—a major US naval effort to throw a “red, white and blue protective umbrella” over shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Wrong. The real reason for its suspension was the Saudis fear that Iran would fire on the protective convoy. The convoy would fire back. Trump would order renewed missile attacks, and the war would again spread throughout the Gulf.

Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff may be the two Americans meeting with Iranian (and/or Pakistani) officials in Geneva and Islamabad, but behind the scenes America’s junior partners in the Iran War are calling at least some of the shots. These are Israel, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE.

Israel is more like full partner than junior partner. Its Government is certainly the most hawkish. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu played a key role in dragging Trump into the Iran War and according to him is in “almost daily contact” with the president. The Israeli security establishment views Iran as an “existential threat” to Israel. It wants to overthrow the theocratic regime and replace it with a pro-Israeli secular government that will end support for Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.

Netanyahu has the support of Israeli public opinion. It is starting to drop, but is still pro-war. At the start of March, 80 percent of Israelis supported the war. This had dropped to 54 percent by the end of April. 61 percent are opposed to the ceasefire.

Another factor in Israeli thinking is that they are totally unaffected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. None of their energy or fertiliser supplies come from the Gulf Region.

The United Arab Emirates are the most hawkish of the Gulf states. They argue that previous restraint has only encouraged Iran and that Iran’s weakened state offers the best opportunity yet to finish off the regime.

Saudi Arabia appears split. The military favour war. The other faction is concerned about the damage any fighting would do to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s Vision 2030. The Crown Prince himself shifts from one position to the other. At the moment, the anti-war faction is in the ascendant.

Oman, Kuwait and Qatar are in the peace camp. Qatar is worried because 10,000 US troops make it a target for Iranian missiles. Another problem is that Qatar and Iran share the giant North Field/South Pars gas field. Kuwait is dependent on the Strait of Hormuz for its exports and Oman is the region’s traditional go-between peacemaker.

Whatever emerges from whatever talks may or may not occur because of the current MOU; it is certain that Donald Trump will declare total victory. That will be another one of his outrageous lies.

At the start of the war, he stated that among his main war aims were regime change and an end to Iran’s nuclear ambitions. The talking points on the table at the moment, do not achieve either of those aims. The war has also opened a Pandora’s Box as far as Iran and the Strait of Hormuz are concerned.

But that is not all. There is the financial cost of the war. The United Nations reckons that so far it has cost the Gulf economies more than $200 billion. Damage to Iran is estimated at $250 billion. The cost of keeping the US navy on station is reckoned to cost $1 billion a day and then there is the cost of firing thousands of missiles on top of that. It is impossible to calculate the economic damage to the global economy which could run into the trillions.

There is more. The war alienated and angered America’s traditional allies. The US lost credibility across the globe. China’s position as an oasis of stability and reasonableness was strengthened. The war allowed a dangerous theocratic regime to emerge intact—and thus victorious. And, finally, it exposed the political and diplomatic limitations of the world’s most powerful military machine. In short, Trump lost!

* Tom Arms is foreign editor of Liberal Democrat Voice. He also contributes to “The New World” magazine and lectures on world affairs. He is the author of “America Made in Britain,” two editions of “The Encyclopaedia of the Cold War” and “The Falklands Crisis.”