Author Archives: Tom Arms

Observations of an ex pat: TACO

By Tom Arms | Sat 24th January 2026 - 11:37 am

TACO or “Trump-Always-Chickens-Out” was especially apparent in Davos Switzerland this week when the US president backed down on his threat to use force to acquire Greenland. He also dropped his threat to impose additional tariffs on the eight European countries—including Britain—that backed Denmark’s refusal to cede sovereignty.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte appears to have stepped in at the last minute to prevent Trump from dropping the expected Davos bombshell that would have left NATO in tatters. Mind you he probably had some help from Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Key Republicans in Congress, the stock market and even the opinion polls were also against feeding Trump’s property-driven ego by the forced acquisition of the misnamed Greenland.

Even the other side of the world—Asia—joined battle. Japanese Defense MinisterKoizumi Shinjiro warned at a conference to strengthen US-Asia military ties: “The Indo-Pacific and the Euro-Atlantic are inseparable and indivisible”

Europe may have won this battle but it is battered and bruised and faces a long war with a dangerously unpredictable president whose administration appears to live in Alice’s looking glass world.

The old continent’s leaders are having a difficult time adjusting to the new America. For 80 years it has been a friend, confidant, ally, partner and, most of all, protector. The political, cultural, educational, intelligence, military and financial establishments are so intermeshed as to be almost impossible to imagine untangling them let alone actually doing so.

And then Trump arrives. Europe is villified. It is suffering “civilisational erasure”. It has done nothing for America. Europe’s loyalty to the alliance is being questioned by an American president whose grasp of history and reality is somewhere between tenuous and non-existent.

Europe’s leaders are practically spluttering with anger. But their ire is nothing being belt by the friends and families of the 1,000-plus non-American NATO soldiers who died fighting Afghanistan after 9/11 when America invoked Article 5 of the NATO treaty for the first and only time in the history of the alliance.”Nato,” said Trump “has done nothing to help America.” They gave their lives

It is possible that an agreement can be reached on US bases in Greenland using as a template the British sovereign bases in Cyprus. This would mean that Denmark would allow the US to carve out bits of Greenland that would become sovereign American territory and would be used solely for security purposes.

If the arrangement followed the deal for the British bases at Akrotiri and Dhekelia then the US would be given full sovereignty over designated territory in Greenland. That territory would be governed by US law.

To make a similar arrangement palatable to Cypriot public opinion, the British had to agree that there would be no economic exploitation, commercial development, customs or migration abuse or extraction of natural resources on the sovereign airbases. Legally speaking, the Cypriot bases are what is known as “sterile” territory.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged observations of an ex pat | 8 Comments

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 18th January 2026 - 10:30 am

Nuclear weapons

In a few weeks—on 5 February 2026, to be exact—the 2010 New START Treaty will expire. For the first time since the early days of the Cold War, the world will be without a binding agreement limiting the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals.

The main reason for the treaty’s impending expiration is that neither the US nor Russia trusts the other. All such treaties rely on inspections to verify that signatories are upholding their end of the bargain. START inspections have ceased.

Washington and Moscow agreed to a mutual suspension of inspections in March 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, before the health crisis ended, Russia invaded Ukraine and the US imposed sanctions and travel restrictions. Moscow argued that these measures made inspections impossible and in August 2022 blocked US inspections. In February 2023, Russia formally suspended its participation in New START, effectively rendering the treaty unenforceable.

Both sides will soon be legally free to expand and deploy additional nuclear weapons. This includes the option to increase the number of warheads deployed on existing delivery systems, although it should be noted that New START already allowed multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs) within overall limits.

There are no restrictions on missile defense systems under New START, so the treaty’s expiration does not remove any formal limits in this area. However, the absence of arms control constraints may encourage renewed emphasis on missile defense projects, including Donald Trump’s proposed “Golden Dome.” Vladimir Putin is also free to expand deployment of Russia’s S-500 Prometheus air- and missile-defense system, which focuses on protecting key installations rather than national coverage.

The treaty did place limits on delivery systems and deployed warheads, which indirectly constrained the deployment of emerging technologies. While hypersonic glide vehicles are not explicitly banned, they are counted under New START limits when mounted on intercontinental ballistic missiles. Their speed is meant to render missile defense systems redundant.

The New START Treaty was imperfect. It needed—and still needs—to be renegotiated to account for new technologies such as cyber warfare, space-based systems, and novel delivery vehicles. Nevertheless, its existence provided an element of stability and transparency that helped restrain the dynamics of Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) that once dominated nuclear strategy. MAD rules again.

Climate change

Slipping under the geopolitical radar at the start of 2026 was another major blow to climate change activists.

Venezuela, Epstein, Minneapolis and Iran meant that few noticed when Donald Trump signed a batch of 60 Executive Orders which included US withdrawal from the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC).

The UNFCC was adopted in 1992 at the Rio Earth Summit. It commits the signatories to limiting greenhouse gas emissions; introducing measures to adapt to climate change; sharing data and technology and meeting regularly.

But perhaps most importantly, the UNFCC is the umbrella treaty under which all subsequent agreements are designed to sit. American withdrawal ensures non-US compliance in the 1997 Kyoto Protocol and the 2015 Paris Climate Change Accord.

Trump’s edirective, however, may not be the end of the matter. US law requires a one-year’s cooling off period before Congress approves withdrawal. Before the year is up the US will have held mid-term elections and the political complexion of Congress is likely to have changed.

By the way, the batch of 60 Executive Orders included issues related climate change, biodiversity, migration, fender, development and population changes.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged climate change, cuba, donald trump and nuclear weapons | 4 Comments

Observations of an Expat: Iran

By Tom Arms | Sat 17th January 2026 - 9:43 am

The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRNA) reckons that since the start of the year 2,500 protesters have been killed in Iran.

Most of them have been shot on the street. Others have been dragged to hastily convened special courts and sentenced to hang.

In 2024, a relatively quiet year for Iranian protests, the regime strung up 1,000-plus people for the crime of vociferously expressing their views. Iran is only second behind China (several thousand) in the world execution stakes.

US President Donald Trump has promised action against the regime if the killings continue. He refuses to specify what action, but he has said that America is “locked and loaded.” The US and Britain also withdrew all non-essential military personnel from the region.

Towards the end of the week, Trump appeared to back away from his earlier threats. Possibly because his military leaders were warning him about involvement in another Middle Eastern war and the fact that regional allies Qatar and Saudi Arabia have refused to support him.

The son of the late Shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, has said he is planning a return to his country and demonstrators have been chanting his name. Pahlavi says he wants to organise a referendum on what type of government the Iranian people want.

The regime has imposed a complete internet blackout in an attempt to disrupt communications between protest groups and communications with the outside world. Chief Justice Gholamhossain Mohseni-Ejei has threatened “swift and harsh” justice.

Many are predicting that the repressive theocracy that has ruled Iran for 47 years is about to end. Maybe, maybe not.

Posted in Op-eds | 1 Comment

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 11th January 2026 - 9:38 am

USA – Minneapolis

The shooting of young mother Renee Good this week in Minneapolis has further exposed the divisions in a fractured American society and President Trump’s determination to exacerbate rather than heal them.

Anyone who watches one of the many videos—or reads the eyewitness accounts—can only conclude that Ms Good was murdered by an ICE agent.

She was clearly driving away from a confrontation with the agents who were in Minneapolis as part of a politically motivated round-up of ethnic Somalis. As she was turning away from the armed agents, one of them fired through the car window and shot Ms Good in the head. A doctor then rushed forward to try and administer first aid but was blocked by the agents.

President Trump, Homeland Security Secretary Kirsti Noem, Vice President J.D. Vance and Attorney General Pam Bondi have rushed forward to claim that the agent fired in self-defense because Ms Good was trying to run him over. They have also claimed—without any evidence—that Ms Good was a professional left-wing agitator. Vice President Vance has gone so far as to falsely claim that the ICE agents are protected by absolute immunity because they are federal agents.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt increased the attack on Good even more by telling White House correspondents: “The deadly incident that took place in Minnesota yesterday occurred as a result of a larger, sinister left-wing movement that has spread across our country, where our brave men and women of federal law enforcement are under organized attack.”

The administration’s line has been picked up and repeated parrot-fashion by Fox News and the Republicans in Congress. Democrats and the bulk of the rest of the media have attacked ICE and the administration. The people of Minneapolis have taken to the streets in their thousands. Their action is being mirrored in other US cities. In Portland, Oregon two more people have been wounded.

President Trump had a personal message for ICE agents in the wake of the shootings: “It’s time to get rough.”

Iran

The Iranian authorities have shut down the country’s internet. The reason is quite simple: they don’t want people—inside and outside Iran—to know how many protesters they are about to kill.

And they are killing them. After protests in 2019 several hundred protesters ended up in their coffins. Human rights organisations reckon that 40 were killed before the internet was shut. The BBC has confirmed 20 of the deaths.

The country’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khameinei, has said that the thousands who have taken to the streets of Tehran, and at least 50 other towns and cities, are a “bunch of vandals” trying “to please” the US.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged donald trump, iran and United states of America | 33 Comments

Observations of an Expat: What’s Next

By Tom Arms | Sat 10th January 2026 - 10:07 am

The rules-based world order has been the cornerstone of international diplomacy since the end of World War Two. It is surviving by the friction of inertia alone, and many argue that we have already slipped into the abyss of the unknown.

The ancien régime depended heavily on American support and direction. Donald Trump has indicated that providing that support is no longer in America’s interests. According to Stephen Miller, Deputy Chief of Staff in the White House and a Key Trump adviser, what counts now is not law, but raw power.

As he told CNN: “We live in a world… that is governed by strength. That is governed by force. That is governed by power.”

In early January, Trump demonstrated this approach when he effectively kidnapped Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro and announced the takeover of the country’s oil reserves for the “foreseeable future.” In a separate move, he appears to be moving quickly to gain control of Greenland.

This coming week Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expected to fly to Copenhagen with a firm offer to buy Greenland. Trump has made it clear that if the Danes refuse to cooperate, he might consider “military intervention,” raising the prospect of conflict with a fellow member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

Greenland is a self-governing territory of Denmark, which retains responsibility for Greenland’s defense and foreign affairs. The Danish government has emphasized that any decision regarding U.S. ownership would ultimately rest with Greenland’s 57,000 residents. The mainly Inuit population has said that it wants nothing to do with America and, in fact, seeks independence from Denmark. However, a country with such a small population would face significant challenges in defending itself.

A U.S. invasion of Greenland would be a serious blow to the international order. One of NATO’s fundamental principles is that allies respect each other’s territorial integrity. They certainly do not attack one another. An attack on, or annexation of, Greenland—a territory of NATO ally Denmark—would seriously undermine the credibility of the alliance. Since the end of World War Two, American leadership of NATO has helped sustain one of the longest periods of relative peace and prosperity in modern history. Peace in Europe has spread ripple-like throughout the rest of the world.

Oddly enough, there is no need for a clash over Greenland. Under the 1951 U.S.-Danish Defense Agreement, the United States can base as many troops as needed in Greenland, and Denmark has indicated it may also allow American access to Greenland’s mineral resources, although this could face resistance from environmentally-conscious Greenlanders.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged donald trump, greenland and Venezuela | 4 Comments

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 7th December 2025 - 9:15 am

Venezuela

Venezuela is not—repeat, NOT—a major drug producing country. That is according to the US Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) and the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC).

It is not even a major transit country. That honour is reserved for Mexico and Central America which provide the major transport routes from production centres in Colombia, Bolivia and Peru.

Some cocaine is transited to the US through Venezuela but most of the drugs that passing through the South American country are bound for Europe, according to the DEA and UNDOC.

Then why, you may ask, has President Trump and his sidekick Pete Hegseth, blown up boats (allegedly carrying drugs) coming mainly from Venezuela. So far 87 people have died in these legally suspect attacks. Why also, is a major US naval force led by the world’s largest aircraft carrier (the USS Gerald Ford) parked off the coast of Venezuela with the obvious intent of threatening regime change?

The answer is OIL.

Venezuela has the world’s largest proven oil reserves—330 billion barrels compared to 260 billion in Saudi Arabia, the world’s second largest.

But the oil is staying in the ground. It wasn’t always that way. In its production heyday, Venezuela was extracting 3.5 million barrels of oil a day. Current production is up significantly from a year ago but is still only 921,000 barrels a day.

This is because the state-owned oil company Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) is corrupt and inefficient. It has not maintained either the oil wells, the pipelines that carry the oil from the Orinoco Basin to coastal shipment centres or the storage depots or ships.

One of the reasons for the inefficiency is that roughly a quarter of Venezuela’s population has fled the oppressive regime of Nicolas Maduro. A large proportion of those refugees are the skilled workers needed to toil in the oil industry.

If Maduro is removed from power—as Donald Trump would dearly love to see—then the Opposition has said that it would privatise the Venezuelan oil industry and invite foreign companies to take over production. In fact, Opposition leader—and Nobel Peace Prize winner—Marina Corina Machado—met with oil companies last April to discuss how they could revive her country’s oil fortunes.

Most of those companies would be American and the exploitation of Venezuela’s heavy crude by American oil companies would be a good fit with Donald Trump’s foreign policy aims.

Honduras

Trump’s policies are nothing if not inconsistent. On the one hand he says he is at war with drug traffickers and his declaration of war justifies blowing up boats without legal due process.

On the other hand, he pardons the former President of Honduras—Juan Orlando Hernandez—who was sentenced to 45 years in prison for drug trafficking.

Hernandez served two terms as president from 2013 to 2021. While in office he was popular with both Barack Obama and Trump. Obama described him as one of “the excellent partners” on the migrant children crisis and Trump endorsed Hernandez when he ran for re-election in 2017.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged emmanuel macron, honduras, venezuala and vladimir putin | 3 Comments

Observations of an Expat: MAGA Conned

By Tom Arms | Sat 6th December 2025 - 10:10 am

MAGA is waking up to the fact that it has been conned. Almost everyone else knew years ago that Donal J. Tump is a con artist whose talent lies in feeding prejudices with lies that people want to believe.

But in America—as in most countries—there is a socially conservative and fiscally liberal base of voters who are frightened of change while anxious about their bank balances. The Democrats and old school Republicans had failed them. Trump convinced them that he had the answer with his “Make America Great Again” campaign.

Proof of the MAGA’s disillusionment came this week in the form of a special election for a congressional seat in the deeply conservative state of Tennessee. The Republicans held it, but dropped nine points compared to the 2024 poll. If this result is reflected in next year’s mid-term elections then the Democrats will win up to 30 seats in the House of Representatives and possibly half a dozen in the Senate.

This would give the Democrats control of both houses of Congress and guarantee a third impeachment for Donald Trump. On top of that, recent polls indicate that up to 18 Republican senators are prepared to break with the president. That would be enough to impeach, convict and remove Trump from the White House.

The causes of the disillusionment are many and varied. Top of the list is what has been termed the “affordability crisis.” For some reason, Trump insists that “the word affordability is a con job by the Democrats” and that prices are actually “way down.”

For any American who walks down a super market aisle this is an obvious porky pie (rhyming cockney slang for lie) that insults the intelligence of even the most loyal MAGA voter.

Inflation is not the only problem. MAGA is delighted at the dramatic drop in people attempting to cross America’s southern border. In 2022 they reached an historic high of 2.2 million apprehensions. In June 2025 they fell to an historic low of 6,000.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged donald trump and MAGA | 3 Comments

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 23rd November 2025 - 9:52 am

Sudan – and gold

Gold is currently selling at $4,038.05 an ounce. It has increased in value 121 percent in under five years.

It is also financing a civil war in Sudan which, according to the UN, has killed 150,000 civilians, displaced 25 million people and left 30 million facing acute hunger.

The two main Sudanese warring parties — the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) — now rely heavily on gold as a source of income.

In 2024, gold production reportedly generated $1.7bn for Sudan via official channels. But then there are the unofficial channels, and, according to a UN Sanctions Committee Report, illicit smuggled gold is worth many times more than that which leaves the country through legal official channels.

The conflict over gold isn’t just a domestic issue. It is tied into a regional ecosystem with armed Sudanese actors with both camps connected to smugglers, refineries and foreign governments. All of which allows the two armies to convert gold into cash to buy weapons, fuel, food and other war needs.

Gold is the ideal money source for Sudan’s warring parties. For a start, Sudan has a lot of it. It is in the world’s top five for gold production. And geologists reckon that because conflict has prevented full exploration, there could be a lot more glitzy minerals in the Sudanese hills.

Next, it is relatively easy to mine, especially if you have no compunction about using environmentally dangerous and toxic mercury. The Sudanese warlords are not known for their green credentials.

Then, there is the fact that it is easily transportable. You can melt it down and mould into any easily smuggable shape, paint it black and carry it out to the gold markets where there is a constant and strong demand which means that the gold can be quickly converted into cash.

The biggest market is Dubai in the United Arab Emirates. The Dubai Gold Souk has been a major gold trading hub for centuries. In addition to the traditional souk with its hundreds of bullion shops there is a major free trade zone known as the Dubai Multi Commodities Centre. There is also a major gold refinery—Emirates Gold. In 2024 $186 billion in gold passed through the UAE.

More than 97 percent of Sudan’s gold is sold on the Dubai markets after being smuggled out through Egypt or Chad. Some of it is perfectly legal—about $1.52 billion. Just how much is illegal can be guessed at, but Swissaid, which monitors gold transfers, reckons that 60 tonnes of illegal smuggled gold is sold in Dubai. This could be worth up to $7 billion.

The UAE authorities say they follow OECD Due Diligence Regulations for Responsible Mineral Sourcing to ensure that the gold that they sell is coming from legitimate sources and is not being used to fund war. But this is challenged by Swissaid, Chatham House and the Financial Action Task Force, which was set up to combat money laundering and terrorist financing.

If the UAE authorities can be persuaded to stop the flow of illicit gold then it will sever the pipeline which is financing the fighting in Sudan and—hopefully—lead to its end.

Ukraine

Details of Trump’s latest peace plan for Ukraine are starting to leak out. The plan basically calls for Ukraine’s surrender.

Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk would be “recognized as de facto Russian, including by the United States.”

“Kherson and Zaporizhzhia will be frozen along the line of contact, which will mean de facto recognition along the line of contact,” the proposal states. “Russia will relinquish other agreed territories it controls outside the five regions.”

The proposal also states: “It is expected that Russia will not invade neighbouring countries and NATO will not expand further.”

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged russia, sudan and ukraine | 29 Comments

Observations of an Expat: Four-sided Asia Conflict

By Tom Arms | Sat 22nd November 2025 - 9:42 am

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has re-ignited the tense Sino-Japanese relations that underscore the region’s volatile politics.

The roots of these tensions go back centuries and will doubtless last for centuries more. At the moment the main players are China, Japan, Korea and Taiwan with America playing an important peripheral role.

Korea and Japan have a long history involving cultural links, wars and cruel colonisation. According to many historians, the Japanese imperial family originated in Korea. It is a fact that many prominent Japanese have Korean genetic roots.

Much of Chinese culture reached Japan through the Korean Peninsula. This included Buddhism, Chinese writing, laws, government models, horsemanship, metallurgy, iron-working, architecture, construction and agricultural techniques.

From the Japanese point of view, Korea offered an invasion route into China. In the 16th century the Japanese fought a four-year war against Korea and were only defeated when the Chinese joined the fight on the side of the Koreans.

Then, of course, there is the Japanese colonial period from 1910 to 1945 with the bitter Korean memories of slave labour and “comfort women.”

Korea also has its problems with China with whom it has had a long on-off relationship which for centuries involved tributes and recognition of Chinese suzerainty. A key element in Korean foreign policy (north and south) is summed up by the word “sadae” which is interpreted as “serving the great” which in turn means that Korea will always prioritise good relations with China to secure protection and legitimacy.

Taiwan is a relatively more recent issue for both China and Japan. Its indigenous inhabitants—Austronesians—are neither Japanese nor Chinese. They are genetically and linguistically related to the Filipinos and Indonesians. It wasn’t until the 16th century that the Chinese started to take a peripheral interest in the island. Then the Dutch arrived and called it Formosa. This spurred the Ming Dynasty to action. They booted out the Dutch and shortly afterwards formally annexed the island.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged china, japan, korea and taiwan | 3 Comments

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 16th November 2025 - 10:28 am

United States

The Epstein Files story is reaching a climax. Emails released by the estate of paedophile and convicted sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein have mentioned Donald Trump’s name, but little more than that.

However, the pathway to the more extensive FBI files on Epstein is now clear. Congresswoman Adelita Grijalva was sworn in this week and immediately cast the deciding vote in favour of releasing the Epstein files. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson now has seven legislative days to “ripen” the issue. He then has an additional two days to schedule the vote.

The necessary legislation will have no problem passing the lower house. A simple majority is needed and it is reckoned that up to 100 Republican congressmen will vote in favour of release.

Many of them are facing constituents who voted for Trump in the belief that he would release the files as promised. They are angry that there appears to be a cover-up in the service of rich elites. Other representatives do not want to be seen as participating in a cover-up, especially with the threat of even more damaging information to come.

If it passes the House then it goes to the Senate. There may be a problem there as it needs 60 out of the 100 votes to pass. Senators are not as vulnerable to the whims of the electorate as they face re-election every six years whereas those in the House of Representatives go before the electorate every two.

The final hurdle is the president. He can veto the release of the files. But if he did it would be tantamount to an admission of guilt and would almost certainly be overturned by a two-thirds vote in Congress.

China

In the past six weeks Xi Jinping has purged China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) of nine senior generals and admirals and several handfuls of lower officer ranks.

The stated reason is corruption. And there is no doubt that China has a problem with senior military figures on the take. It has had the problem for years with officers being purged after police raided their homes to discover refrigerators and microwaves stuffed with cash, jewels and valuable works of art.

But the quantity and quality of the latest purge victims indicates that at least in some cases the corruption charge could be a cover for political disloyalty.

General He Weidong, for instance, was not just a general. He was also vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission and a member of the ruling Politburo. The charges against him were corruption and “loss of chastity.”

The latter phrase has nothing to do with celibacy—or lack thereof—but political chastity or loyalty to the Party line.

In today’s China the interests of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) are being increasingly conflated with the interests of Xi Jinping. Thus lack of loyalty to Xi is the same as disloyalty to the Party and disloyalty to the Party is disloyalty to the country.

The CCP has long operated on the principle that “the Party commands the gun”. Xi seems deeply concerned that the military remain absolutely loyal to him and the CCP, not just as an institution. Corruption purges within the PLA have been driven not just by efficiency concerns but by loyalty/political control.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged china, COP30, donald trump and united states | 9 Comments

Observations of an Expat: China’s Environmental Paradox

By Tom Arms | Sat 15th November 2025 - 9:25 am

China is both the world’s biggest environmental villain and – paradoxically– the greatest hero when it comes to the development and export of green renewable energy.

The Middle Kingdom is the world’s biggest emitter of CO2 gases—more than the US, India and EU combined. It burns more coal than the rest of the world combined and it continues to build coal-powered plants.

But at the same time it produces 80 percent of the world’s solar panels; 70 percent of lithium-ion batteries, 65 percent of the world’s wind turbines and the world’s most affordable electric vehicles.

China has vast resources of dirty coal and very little oil or gas. So when the Chinese Communist Party decided to go all out for industrial growth it made economic sense to exploit the energy on its doorstep. So it turned first to coal and then to imported oil and gas.

But by the early 2000s the Party leadership came to the realisation that the growing dependence on imported oil meant energy insecurity. Also the burning of coal and growing number of cars was creating dangerous pollution levels. Finally, they saw that the next big industrial revolution would be “Green.”

About the same time Europeans and large slice of Americans were also investing in renewable energy. Western governments were starting to provide tax breaks and other subsidies. China, however, has a command economy. So, it didn’t just subsidise green tech companies. The Chinese leadership made the decision to rebuild the country’s entire industrial base around renewable energy.

There were massive subsidies for solar, wind, electric vehicles, and batteries. Free or cheap land was provided for green industries. The state banks offered low-interest and local governments provided tax breaks and cash incentives.

Heavy emphasis was given to national dominance of the supply chain. So development went from mining of rare earths to development of batteries to production of electric cars. No country had ever industrialized a clean-energy sector at that speed.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged china and green energy | 3 Comments

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 9th November 2025 - 11:55 am

Japan

The Japanese economy is in trouble. Not huge trouble. Its growth rate is a mere 0.5 percent. Inflation looks good at 2.2 percent but the country has an ageing population and low birth rate.

It is unsteady enough that a major setback could have big consequences for the world’s third largest economy. And Trump’s tariffs have created a setback for the country’s car industry. So much so that this week industry leaders took the unusual step of warning of tough times ahead.

Japan is heavily dependent on car exports. According to the International Trade Centre, 20 percent of Japanese exports are cars and car exports account for 28.3 percent of all Japanese exports to the US.

Trump’s tariffs, warned Japanese car manufacturers, will cost the country billions in lost profits and that the industry will be faced to tighten its belt for “the foreseeable future.”

Under the terms of a US-Japan trade agreement negotiated two months ago, across-the-board US tariffs on Japanese goods were reduced to 15 percent in return to a $550 billion Japanese investment in the US.

The problem is that Japan is already the biggest foreign direct investor in the US. At the end of 2024 it had $819.2 billion invested in the US. Much of it was in the car industry. In fact, 70 percent of the Japanese-brand cars sold in the US are manufactured in America.

Honda Motor announced last Friday that it expected the tariffs to cut its profits by approximately $2.5 billion. The previous day, Nissan Motors said it would have broken even this year if not for the tariffs. Instead, it projected a $1.8 billion loss.

Japan’s largest carmaker, Toyota Motors, said earlier this week that it expected tariffs to cost the company about $9.4 billion this year, an upward revision from its August forecast of $9.1 billion. The company said the levies were hitting not only its own exports but also its worldwide network of suppliers.

During his recent trip to Japan, Donald Trump, Mr. Trump said Toyota would sell American-made vehicles in Japan and would spend $10 billion constructing auto plants “throughout the United States.”

As usual, Trump’s hyperbolic comments required clarification. They came from Kenta Ton, Toyota’s chief financial officer who said that the company had made no “formal $10 billion commitment and selling American cars in Japan “was a possibility that Toyota would consider.”

Hungary

Trump faced a diplomatic dilemma as this blog went to press on Friday. Does his relations with a close foreign political ally outweigh the American national interest and, possibly, has chances of winning next year’s Nobel Peace Prize?

Normally any meeting between Donald Trump and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is a glowing session of the mutual admiration society. Orban is seen by many in the administration and the wider MAGA movement as the European precursor for populist conservatism in America.

During Trump’s wilderness years, Orban continued to sing his praises and even visited him at his Mar-a-Lago Florida estate. The fact that Orban’s government was in bad odour with the Biden Administration has also helped him with Trump.

Many have pointed Orban’s crackdown on the media, immigration, courts and academia as a model for Trump’s own actions. And Deputy Secretary of State John Landau recently praised the Hungarian leader for his “unstinting defense of Western Christian values.”

But beside that is the recent sanctions that Trump imposed on Russia’s two biggest oil companies as a sign of the frustration that Trump feels at Putin’s refusal to compromise his positions on Ukraine.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged hungary, japan and ukraine | 3 Comments

Observations of an Expat: Court with a Backbone

By Tom Arms | Sat 8th November 2025 - 10:19 am

It has been a bad week for President Donald J. Trump. He was overwhelmingly trounced in every election held this week. The Democrats exceeded all expectations.

Then Pope Leo criticised his human rights record. A former chief prosecutor for the International Criminal Court said that his missile attacks on Venezuelan boats were a “crime against humanity”. The government shutdown entered a record week and Transport Secretary Sean Duffy warned that he would have to start cancelling flights.

But perhaps the most impactful event occurred not at the polling stations but in the dusty and cerebral corridors of the US Supreme Court. It was there that the nine Justices appeared to find their collective backbone and do the job for which they were intended—preventing over-reach by the executive branch of the US government.

Before the court was the issue of Trump’s tariffs. And the court was faced with two main questions: Did the president abuse his power by imposing tariffs without congressional approval and is there an economic emergency that justifies him in using his powers?

We won’t know for some months—possibly not until June—the court’s ruling on these issues. But on Wednesday we were provided with an inkling of the Justices’ thinking based on the rather pointed the questions that they were asking the president’s legal team.

Amy Coney Barrett, is a Trump-appointed Justice who has supported the president on almost every contentious issue. She asked Solicitor-General John Sauer: “And so it is your contention that every country needed to be tariffed because of threats to the defense and industrial base? I mean, Spain? France? Italy? I could see it with some countries, but explain to me why as many countries needed to be subjected to reciprocal tariffs as are.”

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged donald trump | 6 Comments

Tom Arms World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 2nd November 2025 - 8:30 am

Trump’s Asia trip was a tour of important political contrasts.

In Malaysia, Japan and South Korea he was treated with obsequious knee-bending accommodations. As his helicopter Marine One flew past the landmark Tokyo Tower was lit up with red, white and blue, AND, the final touch, topped with Trumpian gold.

But it was the South Koreans who won the toadying prize. President Trump was greeted with a 21-gun salute, a band that played “Hail to the Chief” followed by his campaign rally theme song, “YMCA”.

But it didn’t stop there. South Korean President Lee Jae Myung presented Trump with his country’s highest medal and a replica of an ancient Korean royal crown. Then, at the state dinner, the South Koreans served a “Peacemaker’s Dessert” which consisted of brownies topped with edible gold.

Finally, the South Koreans agreed to invest $20 billion a year for the next ten years in the American companies that Trump chose. The kowtowing worked. Trump reduced US tariffs on South Korean products from 25 percent to 15 percent

Then, Trump met his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. There were no bands, no red carpets, and no Trumpian gold. The venue was a non-descript military building on the edge of Busan International Airport. Both men looked tense when they shook hands for the cameras.

It was clear that the two men were meeting as equals and Trump was ill at east. At meeting’s end, Trump—in typical hyperbolic overstatement—called the get-together with XI “amazing” and gave it a score of “12 out of ten.”

It was not amazing. Both sides met because they had looked into the abyss created by Trump’s tariffs and Chinese refusal to concede a Trump victory in a trade war with the US.

China is the only country with the economic strength and political will to challenge Trump’s tariffs. It did so by cutting off American access to essential Chinese rare earth minerals. The meeting in South Korea eased American tariffs and allowed renewed access to the minerals. But it did little to reduce tensions between the two countries.

There was no sign of the obsequiousness that Trump enjoyed everywhere else in Asia. There was no talk about Chinese support for Russia in Ukraine; or a renewal of meetings of military leaders or cooperation on climate change or talks on the development of artificial intelligence. The world needs improved relations between Beijing and Washington and there was no sign of it in Busan. This meeting dealt with only one aspect of bilateral relations between the two super powers– trade. At best it was a start and should receive a score of five out of ten.

Qatar is a top contender for the next Nobel Peace Prize. Forget Donald Trump. He is good at making a lot of noise about peace deals. Qatar just goes about quietly doing the job of international conciliator.

In fact, the country’s 2003 constitution says that its foreign policy is “based on the principles of strengthening international peace and security by means of encouraging the peaceful resolution of international disputes.”

It is this constitutional determination that has turned Qatar into the Switzerland of the Middle East. During the war in Afghanistan, it became the safe haven headquarters of the Taliban leadership. As a result, it was also where negotiations were held to end the war.

But that is not all, in September Qatari diplomats helped negotiate the release of Elizabeth Tsurkov, an Israeli-Russian researcher held captive for two years by Iraqi militia. They also brokered talks between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which culminated in a peace deal in June.

Qatari’s peace-making efforts are not confined to the Middle East and Africa. They are also mediating between the Colombian government and the drug gang Clan del Golfo. So, Trump, look out, Qatar is coming up fast on the inside track.

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Observations of an expat: The shutdown

By Tom Arms | Sat 1st November 2025 - 10:30 am

As the US government shutdown enters its fifth week it is a bad time to be an American and a federal employee; need help with food bills; need to travel by plane; need to buy drugs; have to pay health insurance; require Medicare, require Medicaid, be resident in a care home or be in the military or require help with heating bills.

As just about every American is in some way affected by at least one of the above factors, it is fair to say, that it is a bad time to be an American.

The government shutdown is the cause of the current round of American headaches. And the cause of the government shutdown is the Democratic Party’s intense dislike of Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill.

They don’t like the bill’s tax cuts for the wealthy or for corporations. But their biggest gripe is what the One Big Beautiful Bill will do to the health of the nation. It will effectively emasculate Obamacare, put up health insurance premiums by as much as 100 percent, deny Medicaid and Medicare benefits to millions and raise drug charges.

The White House said pass the budget and then negotiations can be held about the health situation. The Democrats don’t trust Trump to hold meaningful talks after he gets what he wants.

So, they have refused to pass the budget and the federal government entered its 22nd shutdown since 1976. This one looks like it will break the record of 35 days. That was set in the first Trump presidency over a dispute for funding for a wall on the southern border.

The president appears unconcerned about the shutdown. In the middle of it he took off for a tour of Asia. The Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, is helping to stretch it out by refusing to recall Congress. Russell Vought, Director of the Office of Management Budget (OMB), is using the shutdown to fire tens of thousands of federal employees. Trump has also said that federal employees who work for nothing during the shutdown will not receive back pay when the shutdown is over.

In the meantime, this weekend, the government’s food assistance programme (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Programme or SNAP) will run out of money. An estimated 25 million Americans receive help from SNAP to pay their food bills.

Another six million Americans receive federal assistance with their heating bills under the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Programme. As the cold weather sets in, those payments will stop.

Air traffic controllers are classified “essential workers” which means that they have to turn up for work whether there is any money to pay them or not. They have been working for zero pay for a month and many of them are calling in sick in order to support their families by working part-time at other jobs that pay them. Transport Secretary Sean Duffy has said that any air traffic controller who fails to turn up for work will be fired. In the meantime there is chaos in American airports with delays and cancellations.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged observations of an ex pat | 7 Comments

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 26th October 2025 - 10:30 am

British Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves says Brexit has damaged the British economy.

What a shocker!

In case you didn’t notice, the last sentence was dripping with sarcasm.

Let me explain why. The Centre for European Research (CER) estimates that British trade with the EU (which remains Britain’s largest trading partner) has shrunk by 10-15 percent since Brexit. There have been trade deals elsewhere, but analysts reckon that for every £10 of EU trade lost, the new deals have contributed only £1 to £1.50.

Foreign investment (FDI) in Britain has been a major factor in Britain’s economic success since the 1970s. Companies have queued up to invest in a country which speaks English, has a good education system, a fantastic culture and history and—most important of all—access to a market of 500 million well-off people. Not surprisingly, foreign investment in Britain has dropped 30 percent since Brexit and moved to the continent.

Why put your money to produce products for 69 million people when the same investment can give you access to 500 million?

Partly as a result of the lack of FDI the economy is reckon to have gown two to three percent more slowly than comparable advanced economies. By the end of this year, economists estimate that the UK GDP will be 4-5 percent smaller than it would have been. This has cost the country tens of billions of pounds.

This money would have been taxed and the taxes could have gone to maintain, possibly even increase welfare spending. No wonder Ms Reeves is contemplating breaking Labour’s manifesto commitment not to raise taxes.

Thirty to forty percent of Britain’s food inflation has been attributed to Brexit; most costly by the increased red tape, customs forms and other barriers at the border.

Wage inflation has been pushed up by the end of the free movement of workers and financial services have lost “passporting rights” to sell directly into the UK. As a result, Amsterdam has overtaken the City of London in the sale of some shares.

It is almost universally agreed that Brexit has been bad for the economy (Nigel Farage excepted). In fact, every poll indicates that most people now think that leaving the EU was a bad idea. But that does not mean they would vote to return to the Brussels fold. And it is questionable that the remaining members of the EU would want us back.

So what can be done to improve relations with Europe—and the British economy—short of membership of the EU or rejoining the Single Market and Customs Union?

Big steps are being made by the Starmer government in foreign policy and defense. Britain is coordinating its policies on Ukraine and the Middle East and is in the process of gaining access to the EU’s defense procurement fund. The latter would be a big boost to Britain’s defense industry with its large number of well-paid jobs.

The two sides could also deepen cooperation on services, improving market access in such areas as the legal profession, financial services, accounting and engineering.

A lot of the drop in trade and rise in inflation is caused by annoying customs forms, customs declarations and hold-ups at the border. This could be alleviated by UK-EU pilots for “trusted traders” who could skip forms and hold-ups at the border.

To ease wage inflation and job shortages, Brussels and London could introduce “temporary visas” for skilled workers and specific sectors of the economy such as health, hospitality and agriculture. The two sides could also introduce improvements to dispute resolution procedures and more joint-industrial projects.

But to start with, both Brussels and London, must accept that they need each other.

The world’s focus is on the eastern edge of Asia this week. It starts with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Malaysia this weekend which will include US president Donald Trump.

On Monday he will fly from Kuala Lumpur to Tokyo for his first meeting with Japan’s first woman prime minister, former heavy metal drummer and car enthusiast 64-year-old Sanae Takichi.

The fact that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party has elected a woman as its leader is big news in highly patriarchal Japan.

Ms Takichi has a reputation as a Japanese nationalist and right-wing economist who models herself on Britain’s Margaret Thatcher. She even calls herself Japan’s “Iron Lady” and wears the same blue suits as Mrs T.

Meeting Donald Trump will be Takichi’s first diplomatic test, especially as Trump puts a high premium on personal relationships. When Trump heard of Takichi’s election he said she was “a highly respected person of great wisdom.”

Trump will almost certain be pleased with Takichi’s tough stand on defense. In her first addressed to parliament she announced that Japanese defense spending would increase to two percent of GDP next year instead of in 2027.

However, Ms Takichi is very much a “Japan first” type leader and she and Trump are expected to clash over the US president’s announcement of a 25 percent tariff on Japanese goods. The tariff plans have been pulled back to renegotiation, but the US is determined to protect US car manufacturers by raising prices of Japanese and European cars.

Trump will leave Japan on Wednesday for South Korea and a meeting of the Asia Pacific Economic Community which includes China. Xi Jinping and Donald Trump will have their first face to face since Trump started his second administration. US tariffs and Chinese rare earth minerals will top the agenda.

Donald Trump’s Ukraine policy must be making him dizzy.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged economics, tom arms world review and uk | 6 Comments

Observations of an ex pat: Project 2025 revisited

By Tom Arms | Sat 25th October 2025 - 10:30 am

Remember Project 2025? It was the blueprint for a second Trump Administration written by the conservative think tank The Heritage Foundation and published in April 2023.

When it came out only 4 percent of Americans approved of it. Donald Trump said it was “ridiculous and abysmal” and he added: “I know nothing about Project 2025. It has nothing to do with me and I have no idea who is behind it and attempts to connect me with it are pure disinformation.”

Is that so?

After just over nine months of the second Trump presidency it is worth a review of Project 2025 how much it has it has influenced the administration, if at all.

Let’s start with Trump’s assertion that he had no idea who was behind the 920-page document which is actually entitled “Mandate for Leadership: The Conservative Promise.” The paper was a collegiate effort. Seven of the key writers are now in senior positions in the Trump Administration.

They are: Russel Vought, head of the Office of Management and Budget; Peter Navarro, the White House adviser on trade and tariffs; Brendan Carr, head of the Federal Communications Commission; Tim Homan, the border Czar; John Ratcliffe, Director of National Intelligence; Monica Crawley, Assistant Secretary of State; and Michael Anton, Director of Planning at the State Department.

At the centre of Project 2025 is a belief in a strong unitary executive authority. The paper proposes that the president assume that authority by attacking courts and academic institutions; taking control of the military and issuing a slew of Executive Orders that either ignore or override the courts and Congress. Trump has done exactly that.

In his first 100 days, Donald Trump signed 141 Executive Orders. Joe Biden signed 160 in four years and Barack Obama put his name to 277 in eight years. Trump, with the help of Speaker Mike Johnson, has castrated Congress by simply refusing to consult the legislators unless absolutely necessary. Judges who disagree with him are personally attacked as being “on the radical left.”

Project 2025 advocates that the president undermine the independence of selected federal agencies by taking control of them. Top of that list are the Department of Justice and the FBI. Under Attorney General Pam Bondi and FBI director Kash Patel, he has turned the heart of federal law enforcement into an arm of the White House and is using those agencies to pursue his political opponents such as James Comey, John Bolton, Letitia James and Lisa Cook.

The Heritage Foundation paper called for increased use of fossil fuels and the rolling back of environmental protection regulations. Trump has called for the American oil and gas industry to “drill baby drill.” As for environmental regulations. The Trump-controlled Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has formally proposed revoking the 2009 greenhouse gas “endangerment finding” which underpins the climate regular framework under the Clean Air Act.

President Trump has found a soulmate in Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Between them, they have enacted Project 2025’s proposal to emasculate federally-financed health services. Five members of the board of the National Institutes of Health have been been fired. Two other senior figures have resigned. RFK has also fired the director of the Centre for Disease Control two deputies and a thousand workers. Others have resigned in protest. Perhaps more importantly, the administration has frozen the NIH budget. In 2024 the budget was $47.4 billion, most of which went on medical research grants.

Posted in Europe / International and Op-eds | Tagged observations of an ex pat | 2 Comments

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 19th October 2025 - 8:30 am

As I write this, Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky, is preparing to sit down in the Oval Office with President Donald Trump.

The Ukrainian leader had high hopes for this meeting. Trump had broadly hinted that he was prepared to give Ukraine Tomahawk missiles. These weapons can be launched from air, land or sea and have a range of 1,500 miles and carry an enormous payload.

That means that Ukraine could launch the missiles from anywhere inside Ukraine or on the Black Sea and easily hit targets in Moscow and beyond. Up to now the West has been reluctant to provide Ukraine with long-range weaponry for fear that it would escalate the conflict. These missiles are a game changer.

Then, while Zelensky, was in mid-flight, Trump and Vladimir Putin had another marathon telephone session—two and a half hours.

Putin held out the golden carrot of “colossal” trade projects for America once the Ukraine War ended and sanctions were lifted.

Nothing tempts Trump more than money. Putin stressed that money came with peace and that he had control over when that peace came—not Zelensky.

So, Trump agreed to hold another meeting Putin; sometime in the next fortnight in Hungary. It is likely, but not certain, that the Tomahawks to Ukraine deal will go on ice or out the window altogether.

In the meantime, Putin is increasing the military pressure on Ukraine. On Thursday night there were dozens of Russian missile attacks and 300 drone attacks on Ukrainian targets. They mainly hit gas and electricity infrastructure as Ukrainians prepare for another hard, cold winter.

These attacks—and a wavering Trump—seem to be Putin’s main cards. The frontline is at stalemate and the Russian economy is struggling from sanctions and Ukrainian attacks on oil depots.

Britain’s collapsed Chinese spy case has brought into focus the structure and nature of Chinese intelligence.

Basically, when we talk about the Chinese intelligence service we are talking about the Ministry of State Security, aka MSS. Although, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is responsible for military intelligence.

The MSS is huge. One unofficial estimate puts the number of employees at 100,000. One former diplomat pointed that is only the ones on the payroll, “the rest of the population are unpaid interns.”

Posted in Europe / International | Tagged spying, uk-china relations, ukraine, US supreme court and voting rights | 12 Comments

Observations of an Expat: Gaza’s Future

By Tom Arms | Sat 18th October 2025 - 8:30 am

Peace in Gaza has hit a snag. Actually it has hit three, but one is bigger than the others.

This is not surprising. No one but a total naiveté could have thought that total peace and harmony would have descended once Donald Trump had spoken.

There are decades of mistrust, hatred, violence and lies to overcome. In fact, more than a century if one goes back to the Balfour Declaration and the Jewish settlements of the 1920s.

But back to the present day when both sides have been accusing the other of bad faith and breaches of the ceasefire/peace agreement. Hamas has accused the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) of continuing to fire on their fighters. They also complain that the promised aid has not arrived. The Israelis are angry that Hamas is slow in returning the bodies of dead hostages.

The IDF admits that since the ceasefire it has shot and killed Hamas fighters. Hamas claims that 24 have died. The Gaza Ministry of Health puts the death toll at four. The number, however, is less important than the fact that Palestinians who should be alive are dead.

Israel says that the Palestinians who died attacked Israeli soldiers and that they reserve the right to defend themselves. They probably did attack. How they attacked we do not know because journalists are now allowed inside Gaza. But we do know that the IDF has a reputation for shooting boys who throw stones. Hamas, however, has a reputation for ruthlessness and an inability to control its fighters.

Hamas’s other complaint is linked to a complaint from Israel—the supply of aid. There are three crossings from Israel into Gaza: Rafah, Erez and Kerem Shalom. All aid must go through these land crossings as Israel maintains a tight naval blockade. Two of the crossings are still closed by Israel. Therefore not enough aid is getting through and the Gazans are continuing to starve to death.

The Israeli government, however, is under pressure from the hostage families to withhold aid until all the bodies of the dead hostages are returned.

Posted in Europe / International | Tagged gaza, middle east and peace deal | 8 Comments

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 12th October 2025 - 8:30 am

To lose one prime minister is considered careless. To lose two is incompetence. Three is starting to look like a crisis of leadership. Five in two years is beyond comprehension.

Such is the sad tale of French president Emmanuel Macron as Sebastien Lecornu leaves the Hotel Matignon even before he has a chance to deliver his inaugural address to the National Assembly.

The root of Macron’s evils is, of course, money. But it is further complicated by the thirst for power by France’s far left and far right and the president’s inability to communicate the necessity of living within one’s means.

France desperately needs a budget which reduces its burgeoning debt burden. The country is Europe’s biggest spender relative to its economic output. Its debt burden is just behind the financial disasters that are Greece and Italy. The markets are so concerned about instability that they are increasing the interest which only pushes the debt burden higher.

Raising taxes to make ends meet appears to be out of the question as the tax burden at 45.6 percent of GDP is the highest in Europe.

A step towards balanced books was made in 2023 when Macron pushed through the National Assembly a gradual seven year rise in the pension age from 62 to 64. This, however, looks like it might have to be at least partially sacrificed in order to push through a total budget package by the end of the year deadline.

Meanwhile, Marine Le Pen of the far-right National Rally and a coalition of left-wing parties are refusing to allow ANY budget to pass. They smell the opportunity of forcing a snap election which could result in their winning more seats and possibly forcing Macron out of the Elysee Palace before the next scheduled presidential elections in 2027.

Macron is equally determined to avoid an election. The result of the snap election he called in 2024 was a disaster for the president’s Renaissance Party. The result is that Macron has become toxic within his own party.

His approval ratings are a dismal 14 percent and two of his previous prime ministers—Edouard Phippe and Gabriel Attal—have distanced themselves from their supposed leader.

Germany’s far-right AfD party has a dilemma. It is pro-Russian. It is also anti-Ukraine and anti the war in Ukraine.

At the same time it is pro-jobs because the eastern third of the country (the former East Germany) is starved of industry. That is why it has become a political stronghold for the populist party. Desperate people turn to desperate politics.

The centre-right government of Friedrich Merz has an answer: base a large portion of the new defense industries needed to provision the Ukrainians in the AfD strongholds in the East.

One is already being established in the town of Gorlitz in Saxony on the German-Polish border. The former Alsom plan manufactured railway carriages for 178 years. But over the past ten years it has been sliding into bankruptcy and threatening to further inflate the town’s 9.8 percent unemployment level.

A major proportion of the workforce at the railway manufacturers was skilled welders. Welding is a well-paid trade and welders are needed to make tanks. The result is that the former railway carriages factory is being converted into a tank production centre and jobs are being saved.

Other defense plants are being considered elsewhere in the East in Grobenhain, Thuringia and Brandenburg.

AfD politicians are reluctantly supporting the job creations while at the same time deploring the end product of the jobs created. They must also be concerned that satisfied workers will be less inclined to support extremist political solutions.

China’s Xi Jinping is preparing for his meeting with Donald Trump later this month by tightening export controls on rare earth mineral exports.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged china, france, germany and horn of africa | 6 Comments

Observations of an ex pat: Nobel Peace Prize

By Tom Arms | Sat 11th October 2025 - 8:30 am

MAGA is not happy. Their leader. Their idol. Donald J.Trump is not this year’s recipient of what the Oxford Dictionary of Contemporary History calls “the most prestigious prize in the world”—the Nobel Peace Prize.

Of course, he never was going to be the name on the lips of announcing committee chairperson Jorgen Frydnes. At least not this week. Nominations for this year’s prize closed in January even before Trump was inaugurated.

But a little thing like a 124 year-old procedural rule was unlikely to stop a man who is running roughshod over a tried and tested 242-year-old constitution.

There is, of course, always next year. The president has, after all, negotiated six (or is it ten or 11) peace deals. And, even his harshest critics are saying that he deserves the $1.15 million prize money and gold medallion if the Gaza concord holds.

But reading between the lines of this year’s award the five-person Nobel Committee thinks otherwise.

They have given the prize to Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado for standing up for democratic values which are being trampled by dictator Nicolas Maduro.

“Democracy,” said chairperson Frydnes, “is a pre-condition for lasting peace. However, we live in a world where democracy is in retreat. More and more authoritarian regimes are challenging the norms and turning to violence.

“Rule of law is abused by those in power. Free media is silenced. Critics are imprisoned and societies are pushed towards authoritarian rule and militarisation.”

He went on to say that Ms Machado represents “precisely what lies at the heart of democracy: our shared willingness to defend the principles of popular rule, even though we disagree. At a time when democracy is under threat, it is more important than ever to defend this common ground.”

The chairperson did not mention Trump by name. He didn’t have to. In fact, the overt criticism was directed at Maduro, but the slightly veiled reproach was clearly intended for the American president.

Posted in News | Tagged donald trump, nobel peace prize and observations of an ex pat | 2 Comments

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 5th October 2025 - 10:30 am

Drone wall

The EU heads of government—and the British Prime Minister—have given their go-ahead to establish a “drone wall” on the border with Russia.

The move follows Russian invasions by jet fighters of Estonian, Polish and Romanian air space; a cyber attack which closed Berlin Airport and drone activity which closed Copenhagen and Oslo Airports.

The plan is to deploy a multi-layered “drone wall” to quickly detect, track and destroy Russian drones. A nirvana for anyone who has grown to adulthood with hand attached to a joystick.

Ten allies are providing anti-drone and surveillance support. They include: Poland, the UK, the Netherlands, Finland, Sweden and the US. Sweden has loaned “powerful radar systems” and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky said Kyiv was sending a mission to Denmark for joint exercises to provide “Ukrainian experience in drone defence”.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said ahead of the summit that airspace incursions were getting worse and that it was “reasonable to assume the drones are coming from Russia”.

“We are not at war, but we are no longer at peace either. We must do much more for our own security.” .
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Another flagship project, called Eastern Flank Watch, is aimed at fortifying the EU’s eastern borders by sea, air and land to protect against so-called hybrid warfare, as well as from Russia’s shadow fleet .Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen said the EU would have to collaborate on this with both Nato and Ukraine.

EU leaders will be shown plans for a “road map” aimed at bolstering defences and developing Europe’s defence industries by the end of the decade to produce state-of-the-art military equipment. The plans will then be worked on with Nato before EU leaders meet again later this month.

According to the plans for being “2030-ready”, Europe needs to move now so its capabilities are prepared for “the battlefields of tomorrow”.

One of the core ideas is to increasingly focus on joint procurement. The EU has already backed proposals to raise up to $150 billion on capital markets to help fund defence investment. The UK and Canada are likely to take part in the fund.

Democrats’ shutdown gamble

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Observations of an ex Pat: Gaza

By Tom Arms | Sat 4th October 2025 - 8:30 am

Trump’s “Eternal Peace Plan” for Gaza is an ill-conceived hodge-podge. Despite that, it may succeed because it is the only show in town. It is also Donald Trump’s best shot at the elusive Nobel Peace Prize.

To truly succeed it needs buy-in from Hamas. But why should they accept it? The plan calls for their disbandment, surrender of all weapons and exile from Gaza.

The Plan makes no mention of the West Bank where Israeli settlers are daily forcing Palestinians out of their home. As for the role of the Palestinian Authority, it is allowed a role “after reform.” But how is it to be reformed?

The two-state solution which Palestinians and most of the international community, support, is referred to as an “aspiration of the Palestinian people” not a justifiable goal or a goal supported by the US. Palestinian statehood is held out as a vague carrot, but only after a hazy list of conditions are met.

Anyway, that point (number 19) has been knocked on the head by the repeated assertion of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that there will “never” be a Palestinian state.

Then there is the fate of hostages and Palestinians held in Israeli jail. According to the plan, once all the hostages are released, the Israelis will release nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners. Why can’t the exchange be done simultaneously?

Point 3 of the plan says that as soon as the fighting stops the Israelis will conduct a staged withdrawal. From where to where? Over what period of time?

Point 7: “Upon implementation / acceptance, full humanitarian aid immediately flows into Gaza.” Haven’t the Israelis claimed that “full humanitarian aid” is already reaching the Gazans?

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged gaza and observations of an ex pat | 6 Comments

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 28th September 2025 - 10:54 am

Trump and Russia

OMG! Trump has done another U-turn on Ukraine. This week he said that Ukraine should regain all the lands occupied by Russia and that any Russian plane encroaching on NATO airspace should be shot down.

He also referred to Russia as a “paper tiger.”

You would have thought that such talks would have infuriated.

No, they took it quite calmly on the chin. Russia is a bear, not a tiger, said Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, “and there is no such thing as a paper bear.”

He added: “Russia, in general, and President Putin in particular value highly President Trump’s political will to continue working towards a peace settlement.”

The fact, is that the Kremlin believe in the TACO theory when dealing with the American president (Trump Always Chickens Out). They just have to tough it out; keep putting their case and keep fighting.

The Russians will also have noted that Trump’s “Paper Tiger” comments were not followed by talks about increased sanctions or any ultimate on ceasefire deadlines.

They were also heartened by Trump’s answer to a reporter’s question about whether he still trusted Vladimir Putin. He replied: “I’ll let you know in about a month from now.” A month is a long time international diplomacy.

Brazil

Ex-Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is out of office, convicted and under house arrest awaiting transfer to prison to serve his 27-year sentence.

He is still, however, a force in Brazilian politics and is busy planning his release.

It won’t be easy, Brazil’s Federal Supreme Court (the STF) is determined that Bolsonaro stays behind bars and its members have said that any pardon or general amnesty would be unconstitutional.

But that is not the end of the story. Whomever succeeds current president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, will probably be able to appoint three new members to the Supreme Court. If they are Bolsonaro supporters than the ex-president could be sprung.

It is a long shot, but already ambitious Brazilian politicians believe that pandering to Bolsonaro could win them the presidency. Chief among them is Tarcisio de Freitas, current governor of Sao Paulo. De Freitas has already said that he would pardon Bolsonaro in the first hour of assuming office.

De Freitas and others are pursuing the Bolsonaro blessing because the ex-president still has a large base of supporters. They are mainly evangelical Christians which comprise about 30 percent of the Brazilian population.

Bolsonaro has won their unwavering support with his stands against wokeness, abortion, gender roles and LGBTQ+ rights. On top of that, Bolsonaro is a strict Catholic, he also advocates strong traditional families which aligns with evangelical values.

France

Another ex-president facing gaol time is France’s Nikolas Sarkozy.

On Thursday he was convicted of a criminal conspiracy involving millions of Euros supplied by Libyan dictator Muammar Gadaffi for Sarkozy’s 2007 election campaign. The money was meant to pay for Sarkozy’s influence to end Gadaffi’s long-term estrangement from western countries.

Convicted alongside the ex-president were two of his former interior ministers. Claude Geant was found guilty of corruption and Bruce Hortefeur of criminal conspiracy. Sarkozy’s wife, singer and former top model Carla Bruni-Sarkozy, also faces charges related to the Gadaffi case.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged donald trump, russia and ukraine | 1 Comment

Observations of an Expat: The UN

By Tom Arms | Sat 27th September 2025 - 8:53 am

Donald Trump doesn’t much like the United Nations. That was obvious from his General Assembly speech this week.

He is not alone. Most diplomats who have worked with the UN have found it overly political, bureaucratic and inefficient.

But at the same time they acknowledge that dissolution of the United Nations would be a catastrophe.

American withdrawal would be the same because Washington supplies 22 percent of the UN budget as well as its New York home. The latter, at the moment appears possible. Or, if not withdrawal, rendering the UN irrelevant and ineffectual by not paying its dues and pulling out of its agencies which do not align with Trumpian policy.

Trump’s budgetary request for 2026 “pauses” almost all payments to the UN. So far, the US is $3.72 billion in arrears due to the general fund and another $1.3 billion behind in its contribution to the 110,000-strong peacekeeping force. On top of that, half of America’s international aid was distributed through UN agencies.

The Secretariat is facing a serious liquidity crisis and is forced to deal with it with hiring freezes and staff cuts. UN agencies’ budgets have shrunk by about a third. Food, medicines and assistance for hundreds of millions is being eliminated.

Ironically, the Trump Administration’s attitude to the UN is out of step with the American public. A 2025 Pew Research Survey showed that 57 percent of Americans had a favourable view of the UN. 41 percent had an unfavourable view. More importantly, 69 percent support American paying its dues to the international body in full and time.

Meanwhile, Trump continues to wage war. He has pulled out of the UN-sponsored Paris Climate Change Agreement, the World Health Organisation, UNESCO, the Human Rights Council and the UNRWA which supplies aid to Palestinians.

If Trump continues to “pause” contributions then relations between Washington and the UN will likely come to a head in 2027 when the US will be more than two years in arrears with its dues. If that, happens then the US—under UN rules—will lose its vote in the General Assembly which could prompt US withdrawal in a fit of Trumpian pique.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged donald trump and united nations | 2 Comments

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 21st September 2025 - 10:17 am

United Kingdom

The world was focused on Britain this week. A state visit is a big symbolic event but usually the public interest is confined to the two countries involved.

Not this time, Trump’s unprecedented second state visit to the United Kingdom, was front page news in Sweden, Germany, Japan…. Would the president behave? If the US-UK special relationship faltered in the face of MAGA what chance was there for the rest of the world?

Well, the visit was a diplomatic triumph for both countries. The president and King Charles got on famously and their speeches were the epitome of diplomatic non-speak.

There were disagreements between Trump and Prime Minister Keir Starmer over Gaza and recognition of a Palestinian state, but the two men agreed to disagree for the sake of the wider Anglo-American relationship. The issue of Ukraine saw some a slight movement by Trump towards the UK/Europe position and he hinted at a bigger shift if all Europeans stopped all imports of Russian oil (nudge, nudge, wink, wink Hungary and Slovakia).

At the Chequers press conference, the president was asked about attacks on British free speech by his vice president and others. He simply refused to answer. The Epstein files and the fate of Lord Mandelson who was sacked as ambassador on the eve of the state visit was raised. Trump replied: “I have never met the man.”

If Trump did put a foot wrong it was when he suggested that the British government should use the military to patrol its borders instead of trying to stop the small boats with diplomacy. The president was quickly—and politely—told to stay out of Britain’s immigration issue.

A state visit would not be a state visit without the big business deals. And this state visit saw the largest ever commercial package — £150 billion which should create 7,600 jobs. Most of the money went on nuclear energy, quantum computing and AI computing. The investment, however, has been criticised by Nick Clegg, former Liberal Democrat Leader and until recently Facebook’s vice president for Global Affairs, as “crumbs from the silicon valley table.”

United States

One flickering light emerged from the darkness of the assassination of Charlie Kirk—Utah’s Governor Spencer Cox.

In fact, one can say that the light emanated from Utah’s Republican Party.

It was of course, Utah, where Charlie Kirk was shot by Tyler Robinson. And because it was his state, Republican Governor Cox stepped in front of the television cameras to speak. He could have followed in the footsteps of President Trump, Vice President JD Vance, Steve Bannon, Alec Jones, Laura Loomer and other leading Republicans and called for vengeance.

But he didn’t. Instead Governor Cox called “on every American—Republican, Democrat, liberal, progressive, conservative, MAGA, all of us—to please, please, follow what Charlie taught me: Always forgive your enemies—nothing annoys them more.”

This is not the first time that Cox has refused to take the Trumpian line. He refused to endorse him in 2016 because “Trump does not support goodness or kindness.” In 2020 Cox declined to back Trump’s claim of a stolen election. And he didn’t endorse Trump in 2024 until after the attempted assassination at Butler, Pennsylvania.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged gaza, united kingdom and United states of America | 4 Comments

Observations of an Expat: Kirk Consequences

By Tom Arms | Sat 20th September 2025 - 9:56 am

MAGA and President Trump promised revenge for the assassination of Charlie Kirk and it has already started.

Late night comedian Jimmy Kimmel has followed Stephen Colbert into the laughter wilderness after being “suspended indefinitely” by ABC hours following a comment from Brendan Carr, chairman of the broadcasting regulator agency the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) that the commission would take action against the network for Kimmel’s comments.

Kimmel made the mistake of criticising MAGA and the president for blaming left-wing radicals for the assassination of Kirk when, said Kimmel, it was more likely to have been a right-wing terrorist.

ABC refused to say that the “indefinite suspension” was related to Kimmel’s comments, but the juxtaposition of events is undeniable.

After the sacking, Carr said that Mr. Kimmel’s remarks were part of a “concerted effort to lie to the American people, “and that the FCC was “going to have remedies that we can look at.”

“Frankly, when you see stuff like this — I mean, we can do this the easy way or the hard way,” He added: “These companies can find ways to change conduct and take action, frankly…or there’s going to be additional work for the F.C.C. ahead.”

Trump simply said of Kimmel’s departure: “Great News for America” and called for the dismissal of two more late show comics—Jimmy Fallon and Set Myers. The Democrats have condemned the sacking as an “attack on freedom of speech and democracy.”

Money talks in America and Kimmel’s departure is almost certainly linked to a planned multi-billion dollar involving the distributing channels. The controversial merger would have created a monopoly which needed the approval of Brendan Carr and the FCC.

Jimmy Kimmel’s is not a lone target. President Trump is suing the New York Times for $15 billion and Trump-supporting tech tycoon Larry Ellison is bidding for CNN. Carr has made it clear that any liberal-leaning broadcaster—radio or television—is in his sights. Every eight years broadcasters have to renew their license. Usually this is a pro forma exercise but the FCC can deny a license if it “fails to serve the public interest”. Carr maintains that he determines what the “public interest” is. So far, however, he has not revoked a broadcasting license.

There was no suggestion by Carr or anyone in the Trump Administration about the suitability of Fox News’s license when Fox host Brian Kilmeade said that mentally ill homeless people should be given lethal injections. “Just kill them,” he added.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged donald trump | 1 Comment

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 14th September 2025 - 10:41 am

United States

A prerequisite of a successful foreign policy is a stable domestic base.

And in today’s interconnected world, a successful foreign policy has a positive impact on home affairs.

At the moment Donald Trump is in big trouble on the home front. This in turn is having an impact on America’s ability to influence world affairs.

To start with there is the Epstein Files—the paedophile sex scandal which refuses to go away.

But even more troubling is this week’s economic news. The Bureau of Labour Statistics reported that new job creations were a mere 22,000 in August—a third less than anticipated. On top of that, …

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged donald trump, peter mandelson, qatar, ukraine and united states | 5 Comments

Observations of an Expat: Charlie Kirk

By Tom Arms | Sat 13th September 2025 - 9:38 am

The murder of Charlie Kirk is a tragedy. The reaction is a frightening potential disaster.

On a personal level, the violent death of a 31-year-old father of two is heart breaking.

On the political plane it is a calamity. As of this writing we do not know the motive for the shooting. It is, however, most likely that Charlie Kirk was murdered for his far-right political views.

The right of free and open debate is a fundamental principle of democracy. It is one of the key reasons that democracies have prospered and totalitarian states have failed.

That is why most of America’s political figures have been loud in their condemnation of Charlie Kirk’s death, including President Donald Trump who started off on the right note in attacking the murder and the rhetoric which led to that murder.

But Trump being Trump, he couldn’t help himself from sliding into the self-same finger-pointing accusations of the type that he himself said led to Kirk’s death.

After praising Charlie as a “great American” who “loved his country” Trump went on to say: “All Americans, and the media, must confront the fact that violence and murder are the tragic consequence of demonising those with whom you disagree day after day, year after year, in the most despicable way possible.

“For years, those on the radical left have compared wonderful Americans like Charlie to Nazis and the world’s mass murderers and criminals. This kind of rhetoric is directly responsible for the terrorism that we are seeing in our country today.”

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged donald trump | 8 Comments

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 7th September 2025 - 8:30 am

China

The received diplomatic thinking for some years was that the United States represented the secure and stable post-war order. China represented radical—bordering on revolutionary– change.

This is changing. Trump’s America First policy coupled with tariffs and an ill-defined isolationism, is projecting America as the chief agent of change.

Meanwhile, China’s growing dependence on international trade, is transforming it into an advocate of globalisation and the international institutions that protect it.

This was apparent at this past week’s meeting of the 20-nation Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in Tianjin. In his opening address, Chinese President Xi Jinping stressed that countries should “uphold justice, engage in multilateralism and advocate for inclusive economic globalisation and an equitable global governance system.”

He also called for support for the United Nations and the World Trade Organisation (The WTO has been effectively rendered powerless by America’s refusal to allow new judges to be appointed).

China has over the years set up a collection of overlapping regional organisations which it dominates. They include the SCO, The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, the China-Community of Latin American and Caribbean States and the China-Arab Forum.

Beijing uses each of these organisations that to push the claim that China—not America—is the world’s anchor of stability. And as the Trump Administration pursues a rolling campaign of economic warfare against its trading partner this story is gaining in credence

Diplomatic and trading opportunities are being handed to China on a plate by the policies of MAGA America. It is getting to the point where an increasing number of countries are actively interested in finding an alternative to the dollar as the world’s premier trading currency. Also, fewer countries appear to be willing to impose sanctions on America’s behalf.

A key country in the shift away from America is India. Historically, India has been at loggerheads with China and successive American administrations have made strenuous bipartisan efforts to secure Indian support to counterbalance growing Chinese power.

These efforts appeared to bear fruit in the first Trump Administration and during the Biden years. But they suffered a serious setback when Trump recently opposed a 50 percent tariff on India for buying Russian oil.

In Tianjin, Modi made a point of physically embracing both Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. It was an embrace which sent worried shivers down the spines of American diplomats.

France

French President Emmanuel Macron looks set to lose another prime minister—his fifth since January 2024.

The current resident of the Hotel de Matignon—Francois Bayrou—has scheduled a vote of no confidence in his economic plans for next week. And it looks like it will fail. His deficit reduction proposals are hugely unpopular.

M. Bayrou is a centrist—he and Macron want to reduce France’s high level of public debt which is currently 114 percent of GDP. To do that, Bayrou proposes budget savings of $51 billion a year.

The problem is that Bayrou heads a minority government and budget cuts are opposed by both the right and left-wing blocs of the National Assembly. The National Rally (RN) of Marine Le Pen, most socialists and Jean-Luc Melenchon’s far-left supporters all oppose the cuts. They also see the debate as an opportunity to increase their parliamentary representation and have called on Macron to call fresh elections to the National Assembly.

The Socialist leader, Olivier Faure, has offered to stave off elections with a pledge to join the Bayrou’s government. But he demands a high price. He wants the cuts halved to $25.5 billion. Faure was rejected.

It is unlikely that Macron will accede to Melenchon and Le Pen’s election demands. The last time he did so, Macron ended up shrinking his minority government. Current polls indicate that if elections were held now, Macron’s supporters would end up with a paltry 15 percent of the vote. The RN is likely to win a third of the votes, the combined parties of the left 25 percent. The balance would be split between socialists and moderate conservatives.

If he does not call elections, Macron will have to choose another prime minister from what appears to be a dwindling list of suitable candidates and an increasingly unstable political environment.

Donald Trump

Donald Trump has taken to heart one of the most famous quotes from George Orwell’s iconic novel “1984”: “He who controls the past controls the future.”

Posted in News | Tagged china, donald trump and france | 6 Comments

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