United States

A prerequisite of a successful foreign policy is a stable domestic base.

And in today’s interconnected world, a successful foreign policy has a positive impact on home affairs.

At the moment Donald Trump is in big trouble on the home front. This in turn is having an impact on America’s ability to influence world affairs.

To start with there is the Epstein Files—the paedophile sex scandal which refuses to go away.

But even more troubling is this week’s economic news. The Bureau of Labour Statistics reported that new job creations were a mere 22,000 in August—a third less than anticipated. On top of that, unemployment levels have reached 4.3 percent, the highest in years.

Next week is expected to bring even more troubling news when the monthly inflation figures are published. With the impact of tariffs starting to be felt, consumer prices will almost certainly be up.

All of the above means the attention of the White House will be on domestic crises which allows political leaders such as Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu and Russia’s Vladimir Putin to run circles around the US.

Russia’s drone incursion into Poland and Netanyahu’s attack on Hamas in Qatar are to a large degree driven by Trump’s distractions at home.

United Kingdom

Lord Mandelson is gone. Sacked as Britain’s man Washington. Being “best pals” with sex-trafficking paedophile – and with the promise of more revelations to come—has cost the man dubbed the “Prince of Darkness” the plum job in the British diplomatic service.

On the face of it, Mandelson was well suited for the task. He was a consummate networker, held several cabinet posts and had extensive international experience both in government and business.

Perhaps his most valuable experience was as EU Trade Commissioner from 2004-2008. Tariffs were expected to be the most important issue facing Anglo-American relations when Trump was elected. A political premonition that turned out to be correct and Mandelson played a key role in securing the most favourable deal among America’s otherwise trod upon allies.

But his success there has been overshadowed by his self-confessed involvement in the world’s biggest political sex scandal—the Epstein files.

And Sir Keir Starmer should have anticipated the problem.  Mandelson himself made no secret of his friendship with Epstein and in a New York court filing in 2019 it was reported that the Epstein “appears to have had a particularly close relationship with Peter Mandelson.”

Sir Keir made a mistake. He has corrected it. The American voters also made a mistake. Will they remedy it?

Qatar

Qatar has tried to carve out a role as the Switzerland of the Middle East. It is the only Arab country that has maintained good relations with Iran. It plays host to 10,000 American troops. Qatar hosted the World Cup—well. It finances Al Jazeera, the only politically neutral broadcaster in the Arab world.

Qatar hosted the talks between the Taliban and the US which led to American withdrawal from Afghanistan. And, most importantly, it played a key role in brokering talks between Hamas and Israel and was the safe haven for the Hamas leadership—until this week.

On Tuesday Israeli jets conducted a precision strike on Hamas headquarters in Doha. They failed to take out the men trying to negotiate a ceasefire but did kill six others.

The attack is a clear signal from Benjamin Netanyahu that negotiations are over. There will be no ceasefire in Gaza until Israel says so. Hamas cannot seek sanctuary in Qatar or anywhere else.  Israel will decide the terms and timing of any ceasefire.

In the past the received wisdom was that only the United States could pressure Israel into making concessions. But this is being called increasingly into question. The attack on Doha—using American-made planes and American-made precision missiles—was carried out without American approval.

America’s “bunker-busting” bomb attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities was conducted because Israel dragged Trump into the conflict after making the initial forays. The United States may be the super power, but Israel is calling the shots.

Consider the timing. The Doha raid came just two days after the Trump administration delivered its latest proposals to end the war in Gaza.

On social media, Trump told Hamas that this was a last chance.

“I have warned Hamas about the consequences of not accepting,” he wrote on Truth Social on Sunday. “This is my last warning, there will not be another one!”

In Doha, Hamas’ senior leadership gathered to consider their response, but Israel didn’t wait to hear it. The attack didn’t just blow up the latest US proposals, it may have wrecked the entire, delicate architecture of Gaza diplomacy, on which the Trump administration was relying heavily.

Debate swirls over how and when the US found out about the Israeli raid and whether it could have done more to stop it. The presence in Qatar of one of the most important US airbases in the world has led many to conclude that it’s inconceivable that Washington didn’t see the Israeli jets approaching.

But if there wasn’t a green light from Washington – and many assume there was – what does this say about Mr Trump’s ability to influence Benjamin Netanyahu’s actions?

Ukraine

It is becoming painfully clear that the Ukraine War is a nuclear powder keg.

The danger is not so much the threat of Vladimir Putin escalating the conflict with his tactical nuclear arsenal, although that is always a possibility.

More likely is the possibility of one of the many nuclear sites around Ukraine—and in Russia—being hit by a large bomb which causes a Chernobyl-like radiation leak.

Ukraine was one of the major sites for the development of nuclear technology and independent Ukraine has inherited the fruits of communist labour. Half of the country’s energy is generated by nuclear power. There are four commercial power stations powered by a total of 15 nuclear reactors. There are is also a major nuclear research centre and four sites for the storage of spent nuclear fuel.

Most of the attention to date has been on the nuclear power station at Zaporihizia. This is understandable as it is on the frontline, constantly under attack and occupied by the Russians. A near crisis was narrowly diverted in 2023 when an explosion at a river dam drained the primary source of the plant’s cooling water for Zaporihizia’s six reactors. A meltdown was narrowly averted by technicians quickly pivoting to a back-up cooling plant.

Chernobyl’s is off-line but still a threat. In February an exploding Russian drone blew a hole in the stainless steel confinement structure over Chernobyl’s number four reactor. The explosion broke the structure’s hermetic seal and Ukraine’s say it was “dumb luck” that no radiation escaped.

Ukrainians are also concerned about the “Neutron Source” nuclear laboratory at Kharkiv which contains enough enriched uranium to contaminate land inhabited by 640,000 people. The laboratory is only 14 miles from the flint line and has been hit 74 times by Russian artillery. Ukrainians say that it is being deliberately targeted and have accused the Russians of “ecocide.”

It is not just Ukrainian nuclear sites that are threatened. Last month, Russian air defences shot down a Ukrainian drone while it was flying over a Kursk nuclear power station and falling debris from the drone damaged one of the station’s transformers.

* Tom Arms is foreign editor of Liberal Democrat Voice. He also contributes to “The New World” magazine and lectures on world affairs. He is the author of “America Made in Britain,” two editions of “The Encyclopaedia of the Cold War” and “The Falklands Crisis.”